Quentin Grimes vs Baylor Scheierman

[Who]

Quentin Grimes is one of the free agent targets that we have been mentioning and discussing on this site. I thought a comparison between Grimes and Baylor may give a different viewpoint of how valuable Grimes is.

Regular season

So there is a significant difference in playing time. Grimes played 29.4mpg and Baylor played 18.6mpg. So I am going to give per game averages + per 36 minutes numbers to help with the comparison.

Scoring

Grimes - 13.4ppg or 16.4pts per 36min.
Baylor - 5.5ppg or 10.8pts per 36min

Grimes - 45% FG 33.4% 3PT (36.6% career) 58.5% TS
Baylor - 45% FG 39.9% 3PT 61.6% TS

Grimes - 10.1 FGA 3.2 FTA ... 12.3 FGA 3.9 FTA per 36
Baylor - 4.3 FGA 0.4 FTA ... 8.4 FGA 0.9 FTA per 36

You can see clearly how infrequently Baylor shoots the ball and how he doesn't get to the foul line. His efficiency numbers are comparable (superior even) due to his 3PT shooting. Both players take a similar number of threes per minute at 6 threes per 36 minutes. So 1 every 6 minutes from either guy. However, Grimes is more aggressive looking for his offense in other scoring situations.

Playoffs

I find the playoff data for Grimes more indicative of his value because Philly were fully healthy and he had a smaller role. More like the role he would be expected to have on any strong playoff team including here in BOS where he would be our 5th scoring option behind Tatum, Jaylen, Pritchard, D White.

Scoring

Grimes - 6.7ppg in 22.1mpg or 11pts per 36min
Baylor - 4.3ppg in 14.1mpg or 10.9pts per 36min

Grimes - 39.7% FG 40% 3PT 56.9% TS
Baylor - 42.3% FG 38.1% 3PT 57.7% TS

Grimes averaged 8.6 FGA per 36 minutes along with 2.4 FTA per 36. Baylor averaged 9.5 FGA per 36min and had 0 FTs.

It is interesting to see their scoring ended up being nearly identical in points per minutes and in scoring efficiency.

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So that is their value as scorers. How about the rest?

Defense

Grimes is a middling defender.
Baylor is a middling defender.

Rebounding

Grimes is 3.6rpg in 29.4mpg or 4.5reb per 36min. Baylor is 3.5rpg in 18.6mpg or 6.8reb per 36min. This difference in rebounding continued in the playoffs. They averaged a similar of rebounds per game despite Grimes playing 22mpg to Baylor's 14mpg. Baylor averaged 7.3reb per 36 to Grimes' 4.4 per 36.

Ball-handling & passing

At first sight, I would rate Baylor as a better connectivity player than Grimes. Does that show in the data? Not sure. Here are their assist numbers ...

Grimes - 3.3apg in 29.4mpg against 1.8 turnovers per game. So a 1.8:1.0 AST:TOV ratio which is a solid mark. This was 3.7 assists to 2.2 turnovers per 36min.

Baylor - 1.5apg in 18.6mpg against 0.6 turnovers per game. So lower assist numbers and better AST:TOV ratio. That gives Baylor 2.9ast to 1.2 turnovers per 36min. And a 2.5:1.0 AST:TOV ratio.

Grimes did better in the playoffs. Playing in a smaller offensive role where he was taking less shots, Grimes maintained his assist numbers while cutting back on his turnovers. So 2.3apg in 22.1mpg or 3.7ast per 36min. His turnovers went down to 0.5 per game or 0.9 per 36. Over 4:1 AST:TOV ratio.

Baylor's assists shrunk and his AST:TOV ratio got worse. He had 0.6apg in his 14.1mpg or 1.5ast per 36min. His turnovers were 0.3 per game or 0.7 per 36min. So a 2:1 AST:TOV ratio.

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All of which is to say - How much more value does Grimes add to the team over Baylor Scheierman? And most importantly, is that added-on value worth the MLE at $15mil a year for 4 years?

[Goldstar88]

Who, Grimes averaged 22pts/5rebs/5ast for Philly when he was traded to them and started. Baylor will never be able to do that. Grimes is on a completely different level. He could start on many teams.

76ers had a logjam at guard with Maxey, VJ, Grimes and McCain before they traded him.

[Who]

Who, Grimes averaged 22pts/5rebs/5ast for Philly when he was traded to them and started. Baylor will never be able to do that. Grimes is on a completely different level than. He could start on many teams.

Agreed. Baylor will never be able to do that. He is a low volume shot taking role player.

Grimes did great for 28 games. He hasn't been able to repeat it / sustain it. Will he ever do it again in his career? Will that be on a winning team? A title contender? Or is the other 90% of his career (28 game streak out of 318 career games) a better indicator of what he has to offer to a title contender?

[Who]

I forgot to add some advanced stats

Base plus minus - bball-ref

Grimes had a -1.6 BPM. He was -0.9 on offense and -0.6 on defense. Baylor was 0.6 BPM. Baylor was -0.7 on offense and +1.3 on defense.

VORP

Grimes was a 0.2 in 2,206 minutes. Baylor was 0.9 in 1,429 minutes. So roughly two thirds of the minutes in a stat where minutes played matters.

Databallr DPM

Grimes was -1.2 overall. He was -0.4 on offense and -0.8 on defense. Baylor was -0.7 overall. He was -0.5 on offense and -0.1 on defense.

Grimes did much better the previous season. He was -0.1 overall with a +1.3 on offense and a -1.4 on defense. 

[JBcat]

I have liked Grimes, but he sure has bounced around a lot NY, Detroit, Dallas, and Philly. I think part of it is long term injury concerns with his knee from what I recall. I think I would look elsewhere than signing him to a 4 year MLE deal.

What about trying to obtain Cam Johnson? He is a winning player and Denver had to cut money somewhere to re-sign Peyton Watson.

[Goldstar88]

Who, Grimes averaged 22pts/5rebs/5ast for Philly when he was traded to them and started. Baylor will never be able to do that. Grimes is on a completely different level than. He could start on many teams.

Agreed. Baylor will never be able to do that. He is a low volume shot taking role player.

Grimes did great for 28 games. He hasn't been able to repeat it / sustain it. Will he ever do it again in his career? Will that be on a winning team? A title contender? Or is the other 90% of his career (28 game streak out of 318 career games) a better indicator of what he has to offer to a title contender?

I think if Grimes gets consistent minutes he could give you Derick White numbers. Philly had too many guards. Hard to get minutes over Maxey and VJ. They also had McCain for a while.