C's expecting Pritchard to have Brunson type jump in numbers(yahoo)

[Muzzy66]

A few other things to consider about some possible reasoning for this trade. 

1. Not sure if there is any truth to this, but oen rumour I saw going around was that the reason the Giannis trade fell through is that the Bucks wanted Hugo and the Brad would not include him.  Brad Stevens has been one of the greatest I've ever seen so far seeing potential where nobody else seemed to, so so if he actually is that high on Hugo then he might think the kid has potential to one day replace JB as a really high iimpact starter. 

2. While Tatum was out last year and the Celtics only had one ISO heavy scorer (in Brown), the ball moved a lot better, and the less celebrated players on the roster (like Queta, Hugo. Walsh, Garza., Sceierman) seemed to really flourish with those oportunities.  Brad had young guys on extremely cap friendly contracts going out there and making a mockery of the analytics data - and the crazy thing is that in the games where Brown sat out, the Celtics didn't necessarily see a huge drop off as many might have expected. 

Once Tatum started getting back to his old self, the Celtics largely fell back to their old tricks - where everyone else on the team mostly stood around and watched while Tatum and Brown played "my shot, your shot".  It's not only last year either.  Since Tatum and Brown have been in Boston together the Celtics are:

* 90-36 (0.714 - equivalent to a 58 win season) in games where only Tatum played
* 72-45 (0.615 - equivalent to a 50 win season) in games where only Brown played
* 332-167 (0.665 - eqivalent to 54 wins) when both have played

That's a fairly large 243 game sample size in which the Celtics have had only one of the Jays on the court, and the difference in win record is really not dramatic - in fact their win record with only Tatum is actually HIGHER then it is when both have played. 

We all know Brad is a big analytics guy, so if you look at this data and also watched how well the Celtics played as a team while Tatum was out, he may well have come to the determination that having Tatum and Brown together is actually a negative rather than a positive and that trading one of them away is actually an "addition through subtraction" move. 

The Celtics could lock themselves into paying $120M+ per season with the Jays over the next 4-5 years, or they could trade Brown away, bring in a guy like Paul George (who at his age is likely quite happy to accept a support role behind Tatum) and then have a bunch of extra cap space in a couple of years to go after a player(s) who better compliment Tatum. 

In addition Brad also adds more draft picks to their existing stash.  Next year PG will be down to one guaranteed year on his contract, and Brad might be able to offer one of those picks to another team to take that contract - leaving Boston with a huge TPE that they could then use to bring in a big impact player.  It also gives them a big contract, which they could potentially use to match salaries for a max salary player in a future deal.  It might give the Celtics more flexibliity then we realise, and in the meantime George is a productive veteran who can contribute to team.   

[Muzzy66]

If you look at the defense stats I would wager that we are better with Jaylen on the floor in most cases.

I don't think you want to look at Jaylen's defensive stats then. When he was on the floor, the defense was considerably worse than when he was off. Jaylen can lock in 1-on-1 when required, but he is a bad off-ball defensive player and he can get lazy when carrying a heavier offensive load.

Pritchard is pretty much our only POA defender at the guard position (Hugo and Walsh are also solid, but they are wings). I will not try to make the argument that Pritchard is better than Jaylen, but Pritchard is a really good player in his role. And he has the ability to expand his role.

Jaylen is a very good (and very aggressive) on ball defender in ISO situations, so he gets big recognition defensively because everyone notices when you are running around locking down a guy like Luka.  But I actually think his team/positional defence has always been pretty mediocre - I routinely see him missing rotations, failing to get out to contest threes, etc.  And this does seem to be consistently reflected in his on/off defensive stats, which actually aren't anything to write home about.

Call me crazy, but I've been saying for a while now that I actually think Tatum is a better defensive player then Brown.  He doesn't get the Defensive hype Brown does because he's not that hyper aggressive, 'lock down' type defender.  But he's actually a very versatile and high IQ defensive player.  He has the lenght/agility to switch on pretty much every position on the court, he ia a very good defensive rebounder, he's usually in the right position at the right time, and I often see him making strong efforts to close out on perimeter shooters even when they aren't his primary defensive assignments.  I think Tatum is a hugely underrated defensive player, and (just as is true with the JB example) the advanced stats do reflect that.

I honestly believe Tatum is UNDER appreciated in this league. Yes, he can have his monents where he can take bad shots and get a little trigger happy.  But outside of that he is such an impactful player in so many ways on the court, and even though he's known for his scoring primarily, he's a guy who can have a poor offensive night and still finish the game with a +15 because he has so much impact with his ability to defend, rebound, pass and draw defensive attention.

[LilRip]

If you look at the defense stats I would wager that we are better with Jaylen on the floor in most cases.

I don't think you want to look at Jaylen's defensive stats then. When he was on the floor, the defense was considerably worse than when he was off. Jaylen can lock in 1-on-1 when required, but he is a bad off-ball defensive player and he can get lazy when carrying a heavier offensive load.

Pritchard is pretty much our only POA defender at the guard position (Hugo and Walsh are also solid, but they are wings). I will not try to make the argument that Pritchard is better than Jaylen, but Pritchard is a really good player in his role. And he has the ability to expand his role.

I have noticed this as well. 

Jaylen is a very good (and very aggressive) on ball defender in ISO situations, so he gets big recognition defensively because everyone notices when you are running around locking down a guy like Luka.  But I actually think his team/positional defence has always been pretty mediocre - I routinely see him missing rotations, failing to get out to contest threes, etc.  And this does seem to be consistently reflected in his on/off defensive stats, which actually aren't anything to write home about. 

Call me crazy, but I've been saying for a while now that I actually think Tatum is a better defensive player then Brown.  He doesn't get the Defensive hype Brown does because he's not that hyper aggressive, 'lock down' type defender.  But he's actually a very versatile and high IQ defensive player.  He has the lenght/agility to switch on pretty much every position on the court, he ia a very good defensive rebounder, he's usually in the right position at the right time, and I often see him making strong efforts to close out on perimeter shooters even when they aren't his primary defensive assignments.  I think Tatum is a hugely underrated defensive player, and (just as is true with the JB example) the advanced stats do reflect that. 

I honestly believe Tatum is UNDER appreciated in this league. Yes, he can have his monents where he can take bad shots and get a little trigger happy.  But outside of that he is such an impactful player in so many ways on the court, and even though he's known for his scoring primarily, he's a guy who can have a poor offensive night and still finish the game with a +15 because he has so much impact with his ability to defend, rebound, pass and draw defensive attention.

I agree with this and something I?ve said about Jaylen as well over the years. When he?s not on the ball, his defensive reads/instincts are not great.

[rondohondo]

The Celtics trading Brown is a bet that Pritchard is their in-house version of New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, a diminutive player who didn?t fully show his talents until Luka Dončić was out of the picture,? Tom Haberstroh of Yahoo Sports reported.

https://heavy.com/sports/nba/boston-celtics/payton-pritchard-message-jaylen-brown-trade/

[rondohondo]

So as it stands our starting lineup should be

Pp.      / conley
White. / HUGO
George/ scheirmen
Tatum /  walsh
Robinson/Queta

#1 Tatum = 25ppg +
#2 Pritchard  = 22ppg
#3 George. = 15ppg
#4 white.   = 15ppg


That should be the order the offense runs through.
While having the potential to be a dominante defensive team. I say C's should be top 3 in the East this year.

[Who]

Is not Paul George supposed to be the number 2 option?  He still scored more points per possession than Pritchard last year.

I don't think this team has a 2nd option.

We have 3 guys all around the same level. PG13, D White, Pritchard. None of them are good enough to be a 2nd option. Debatable whether they are even good enough to be a 3rd option. Maybe with 2 mega-scorers. All 3 guys are really 4th options.

We have three 4th options behind Tatum.

And then a bunch of offensively limited defensive minded hustle guys (Queta, M Robinson, Hugo, J Walsh) and a one dimensional spot up shooter in Hauser. That is the offense.

Last year we had the same thing except we swapped Jaylen for Tatum and didnt even have Paul George. We had the second highest offensive rating in the NBA.

Yep. It won't be an issue in the regular season. It will become an issue in the post-season. Because you contain JT or JT has a bad game, the other guys can't step up and take on a larger role offensively. They can't self-create enough offense.

[Who]

Is not Paul George supposed to be the number 2 option?  He still scored more points per possession than Pritchard last year.

I don't think this team has a 2nd option.

We have 3 guys all around the same level. PG13, D White, Pritchard. None of them are good enough to be a 2nd option. Debatable whether they are even good enough to be a 3rd option. Maybe with 2 mega-scorers. All 3 guys are really 4th options.

We have three 4th options behind Tatum.

And then a bunch of offensively limited defensive minded hustle guys (Queta, M Robinson, Hugo, J Walsh) and a one dimensional spot up shooter in Hauser. That is the offense.

That's unreasonably negative. At worst all three guys are good 3rd options.

Well, let's see, on how many of the top teams in the league are they 3rd options?

East

NYK = Nope. Brunson, Towns, OG.
CLE = Nope. D Mitchell, Harden, Mobley.
DET = Yes. Cade. No 2nd options like BOS.
TOR = Nope. Kawhi, S Barnes, RJ Barrett.
PHI = Nope. Embiid, Jaylen, Maxey.
IND = Debatable. Hali & Siakam. Nembhard 3rd option - similar level as those 3 guys.

On lesser playoff teams.

ORL = Nope. Banchero, F Wagner, D Bane.
MIA = Yes. Giannis, Bam.
ATL = Nope. Jalen Johnson, McCollum, NAW.
WAS = Trae, AD, Dybantsa.

So 2 "yes" and 1 "maybe" out of the top 10 teams in the East.

West

SAS = Nope. Wemby, Fox, Castle, D Harper.
OKC = Nope. SGA, J-Dub, Chet.

DEN = Debatable? Jokic. J Murray. A Gordon.
MIN = Debatable. Ant, Lamelo. Then McDaniels or Ayo.
HOU = Yes. Durant & Sengun. Then VanVleet or Amen.

POR = Nope. Avdija, Morant, Lillard.
DAL = Yes. Kyrie, Cooper Flagg. No 3rd option.
LAL = Yes. Luka, A Reaves. No 3rd option. Q Grimes.
GSW = Debatable. Steph & Jimmy. Porzingis if healthy.
PHX = Nope. D Booker, Jalen Green, D Brooks, Miles Bridges.

So that is the top 10 teams in the West. We have 3 "yes" and 3 "debatable" and 4 "no". Better than the East.

Overall, out of the top 20 teams (not including Boston) we have 5 "yes" 4 "maybe or debatable" and 11 "no". So only 25% of the top 20 teams are they clear cut 3rd options.

These guys aren't good 3rd options. Their games are more suited to being a 4th option.

[Vermont Green]

I take White over several that you have listed as above him (over OG, Harden, Barrett, Nembhard, Lillard, Brooks, and maybe some others).  If you are saying purely in terms of a 3rd scoring option, maybe that changes some things.  But I think you are undervaluing White.  White was the #2 on a team that won 56 games.  Ideally, White is better as the #3, but his team did fine with him as the #2, in spite of his poor box score numbers.  Call him a #2B

As to Paul George, I agree, he may be a stretch as a #2 as well but I think he will hold up fine as a number #3 on this particular team.  We'll see if he can stay healthy (and off PEDs) but if we get the Paul George that played in the playoff series vs. BOS, he will be an improvement over last season's #3 (Pritchard?).

This is the new formula.  Look at the good teams like SAS, OKC, DET, NYK.  They have a #1A and then a bunch of #2B/#3A types.  Most teams are not the old-style #1A and #1B line ups anymore.  Not since BOS in 2024.  Teams can't afford that anymore.  Here is how I see BOS for next season:

Tatum             #1A
White              #2B
George            #3A
Pritchard         #3B
Queta             #5B
Random Wing  #6B

I rate Brown as a high end #1B but not a #1A.  Better than George by a fair margin, but not a #1A.  There are only so many #1As in the league.

[Neurotic Guy]

Is not Paul George supposed to be the number 2 option?  He still scored more points per possession than Pritchard last year.

I don't think this team has a 2nd option.

We have 3 guys all around the same level. PG13, D White, Pritchard. None of them are good enough to be a 2nd option. Debatable whether they are even good enough to be a 3rd option. Maybe with 2 mega-scorers. All 3 guys are really 4th options.

We have three 4th options behind Tatum.

And then a bunch of offensively limited defensive minded hustle guys (Queta, M Robinson, Hugo, J Walsh) and a one dimensional spot up shooter in Hauser. That is the offense.

That's unreasonably negative. At worst all three guys are good 3rd options.

Well, let's see, on how many of the top teams in the league are they 3rd options?

East

NYK = Nope. Brunson, Towns, OG.
CLE = Nope. D Mitchell, Harden, Mobley.
DET = Yes. Cade. No 2nd options like BOS.
TOR = Nope. Kawhi, S Barnes, RJ Barrett.
PHI = Nope. Embiid, Jaylen, Maxey.
IND = Debatable. Hali & Siakam. Nembhard 3rd option - similar level as those 3 guys.

On lesser playoff teams.

ORL = Nope. Banchero, F Wagner, D Bane.
MIA = Yes. Giannis, Bam.
ATL = Nope. Jalen Johnson, McCollum, NAW.
WAS = Trae, AD, Dybantsa.

So 2 "yes" and 1 "maybe" out of the top 10 teams in the East.

West

SAS = Nope. Wemby, Fox, Castle, D Harper.
OKC = Nope. SGA, J-Dub, Chet.

DEN = Debatable? Jokic. J Murray. A Gordon.
MIN = Debatable. Ant, Lamelo. Then McDaniels or Ayo.
HOU = Yes. Durant & Sengun. Then VanVleet or Amen.

POR = Nope. Avdija, Morant, Lillard.
DAL = Yes. Kyrie, Cooper Flagg. No 3rd option.
LAL = Yes. Luka, A Reaves. No 3rd option. Q Grimes.
GSW = Debatable. Steph & Jimmy. Porzingis if healthy.
PHX = Nope. D Booker, Jalen Green, D Brooks, Miles Bridges.

So that is the top 10 teams in the West. We have 3 "yes" and 3 "debatable" and 4 "no". Better than the East.

Overall, out of the top 20 teams (not including Boston) we have 5 "yes" 4 "maybe or debatable" and 11 "no". So only 25% of the top 20 teams are they clear cut 3rd options.

These guys aren't good 3rd options. Their games are more suited to being a 4th option.

Definitely would take issue with some:  At least one of PP, PG, DW would be debatable at least with: OG, RJ Barrett, KP (as healthy 31yo), Lillard (as healthy 36yo), Bridges/Brooks. 

If you look at PG13, PP, and DW as 3rd / 4th options it's nice to have three guys there.  And Baylor was left out of the discussion - maybe on purpose - but he has shooting ability across the board and while he probably doesn't emerge as a 3rd option (as a starter) I think he could be in the tier below PP, PG, DW next season.   But your analysis does reveal a hole left by Brown that would be great to fill with a trade for Trey Murphy (still dreaming).   

JT definitely needs to engage the team more - and maybe the dynamics shift without JB forces some ball-sharing out of necessity. Though I prefer the strategy be proactive.

[byennie]

Is not Paul George supposed to be the number 2 option?  He still scored more points per possession than Pritchard last year.

I don't think this team has a 2nd option.

We have 3 guys all around the same level. PG13, D White, Pritchard. None of them are good enough to be a 2nd option. Debatable whether they are even good enough to be a 3rd option. Maybe with 2 mega-scorers. All 3 guys are really 4th options.

We have three 4th options behind Tatum.

And then a bunch of offensively limited defensive minded hustle guys (Queta, M Robinson, Hugo, J Walsh) and a one dimensional spot up shooter in Hauser. That is the offense.

That's unreasonably negative. At worst all three guys are good 3rd options.

Well, let's see, on how many of the top teams in the league are they 3rd options?

East

NYK = Nope. Brunson, Towns, OG.
CLE = Nope. D Mitchell, Harden, Mobley.
DET = Yes. Cade. No 2nd options like BOS.
TOR = Nope. Kawhi, S Barnes, RJ Barrett.
PHI = Nope. Embiid, Jaylen, Maxey.
IND = Debatable. Hali & Siakam. Nembhard 3rd option - similar level as those 3 guys.

On lesser playoff teams.

ORL = Nope. Banchero, F Wagner, D Bane.
MIA = Yes. Giannis, Bam.
ATL = Nope. Jalen Johnson, McCollum, NAW.
WAS = Trae, AD, Dybantsa.

So 2 "yes" and 1 "maybe" out of the top 10 teams in the East.

West

SAS = Nope. Wemby, Fox, Castle, D Harper.
OKC = Nope. SGA, J-Dub, Chet.

DEN = Debatable? Jokic. J Murray. A Gordon.
MIN = Debatable. Ant, Lamelo. Then McDaniels or Ayo.
HOU = Yes. Durant & Sengun. Then VanVleet or Amen.

POR = Nope. Avdija, Morant, Lillard.
DAL = Yes. Kyrie, Cooper Flagg. No 3rd option.
LAL = Yes. Luka, A Reaves. No 3rd option. Q Grimes.
GSW = Debatable. Steph & Jimmy. Porzingis if healthy.
PHX = Nope. D Booker, Jalen Green, D Brooks, Miles Bridges.

So that is the top 10 teams in the West. We have 3 "yes" and 3 "debatable" and 4 "no". Better than the East.

Overall, out of the top 20 teams (not including Boston) we have 5 "yes" 4 "maybe or debatable" and 11 "no". So only 25% of the top 20 teams are they clear cut 3rd options.

These guys aren't good 3rd options. Their games are more suited to being a 4th option.

I see your point, but I don't think counting off 3 guys "ahead" of them on rosters is really useful, and some of those rankings are really splitting hairs. OG Anunoby is clearly ahead of Pritchard, George and White offensively? Why not count 4 options deep?

We've got 3 guys after Tatum with a clear history of being able to score 15+ per night at above-average efficiency, who also put up almost 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratios (~14/5). White is the best defender in the league at his position, George is still a plus at that end, and Pritchard could definitely put up 20+ points with higher usage. Sounds like solid #3 options to me.

Our starters should average around 80-85 per night and defend while only logging around 60-65% of the minutes, and that's enough. We're not built to lead the league in scoring, but if we're top-10, efficient, and defend like crazy that's a title contender.

[keevsnick]

More data to backup Rondohondo's Pritchard theory

Pritchard's stats with Jaylen on the court vs Pritchard's stats with Jaylen not on the court. Huge difference.



Man, that picture is huge. Here is a link

In 10 games this season without Brown in uniform, Pritchard elevated his game to all-league levels. The 28-year-old averaged 25.2 points, 7 assists and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 51.3% on 2s and 44.4% on 3s. Notably, the Celtics went 8-2 in those games.

This image has become extremely annoying to me, because people are misinterpreting what it means.

Jaylen being gone is not going to magically make Pritchard better. What the image tells you is that PP played very well when Jaylen was off the court and he got a huge USG boost, that's not surprising, guys paten score more with more USG. But it also shows that he shot MUCH better from three with Jaylen off, and that's just pure shooting luck. Adjust for 3 point shooting and you'll ee that with Jaylen off PP's USG went up, his scoring went up, but his efficiency went down. All that's pretty typical.

Again we've ALREADY SEEN what he looks like as a #2, his overall USG is unlikely to go up much with Tatum replacing Brown and George slotting in on the wing. In fact it may very well go down.

[rondohondo]

More data to backup Rondohondo's Pritchard theory

Pritchard's stats with Jaylen on the court vs Pritchard's stats with Jaylen not on the court. Huge difference.



Man, that picture is huge. Here is a link

In 10 games this season without Brown in uniform, Pritchard elevated his game to all-league levels. The 28-year-old averaged 25.2 points, 7 assists and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 51.3% on 2s and 44.4% on 3s. Notably, the Celtics went 8-2 in those games.

This image has become extremely annoying to me, because people are misinterpreting what it means.

Jaylen being gone is not going to magically make Pritchard better. What the image tells you is that PP played very well when Jaylen was off the court and he got a huge USG boost, that's not surprising, guys paten score more with more USG. But it also shows that he shot MUCH better from three with Jaylen off, and that's just pure shooting luck. Adjust for 3 point shooting and you'll ee that with Jaylen off PP's USG went up, his scoring went up, but his efficiency went down. All that's pretty typical.

Again we've ALREADY SEEN what he looks like as a #2, his overall USG is unlikely to go up much with Tatum replacing Brown and George slotting in on the wing. In fact it may very well go down.

How is it shooting luck, when he is taking a larger number of shots and had a higher %, when he is on the floor without JB?

[flybono]

lol
Now PP is Brunson

[goCeltics]

I Think Brad has a drinking problem