Payton Pritchard is set to replace Jaylen as #2 option

[Muzzy66]

A few other things to consider about some possible reasoning for this trade. 

1. Not sure if there is any truth to this, but oen rumour I saw going around was that the reason the Giannis trade fell through is that the Bucks wanted Hugo and the Brad would not include him.  Brad Stevens has been one of the greatest I've ever seen so far seeing potential where nobody else seemed to, so so if he actually is that high on Hugo then he might think the kid has potential to one day replace JB as a really high iimpact starter. 

2. While Tatum was out last year and the Celtics only had one ISO heavy scorer (in Brown), the ball moved a lot better, and the less celebrated players on the roster (like Queta, Hugo. Walsh, Garza., Sceierman) seemed to really flourish with those oportunities.  Brad had young guys on extremely cap friendly contracts going out there and making a mockery of the analytics data - and the crazy thing is that in the games where Brown sat out, the Celtics didn't necessarily see a huge drop off as many might have expected. 

Once Tatum started getting back to his old self, the Celtics largely fell back to their old tricks - where everyone else on the team mostly stood around and watched while Tatum and Brown played "my shot, your shot".  It's not only last year either.  Since Tatum and Brown have been in Boston together the Celtics are:

* 90-36 (0.714 - equivalent to a 58 win season) in games where only Tatum played
* 72-45 (0.615 - equivalent to a 50 win season) in games where only Brown played
* 332-167 (0.665 - eqivalent to 54 wins) when both have played

That's a fairly large 243 game sample size in which the Celtics have had only one of the Jays on the court, and the difference in win record is really not dramatic - in fact their win record with only Tatum is actually HIGHER then it is when both have played. 

We all know Brad is a big analytics guy, so if you look at this data and also watched how well the Celtics played as a team while Tatum was out, he may well have come to the determination that having Tatum and Brown together is actually a negative rather than a positive and that trading one of them away is actually an "addition through subtraction" move. 

The Celtics could lock themselves into paying $120M+ per season with the Jays over the next 4-5 years, or they could trade Brown away, bring in a guy like Paul George (who at his age is likely quite happy to accept a support role behind Tatum) and then have a bunch of extra cap space in a couple of years to go after a player(s) who better compliment Tatum. 

In addition Brad also adds more draft picks to their existing stash.  Next year PG will be down to one guaranteed year on his contract, and Brad might be able to offer one of those picks to another team to take that contract - leaving Boston with a huge TPE that they could then use to bring in a big impact player.  It also gives them a big contract, which they could potentially use to match salaries for a max salary player in a future deal.  It might give the Celtics more flexibliity then we realise, and in the meantime George is a productive veteran who can contribute to team.   

[Muzzy66]

If you look at the defense stats I would wager that we are better with Jaylen on the floor in most cases.

I don't think you want to look at Jaylen's defensive stats then. When he was on the floor, the defense was considerably worse than when he was off. Jaylen can lock in 1-on-1 when required, but he is a bad off-ball defensive player and he can get lazy when carrying a heavier offensive load.

Pritchard is pretty much our only POA defender at the guard position (Hugo and Walsh are also solid, but they are wings). I will not try to make the argument that Pritchard is better than Jaylen, but Pritchard is a really good player in his role. And he has the ability to expand his role.

Jaylen is a very good (and very aggressive) on ball defender in ISO situations, so he gets big recognition defensively because everyone notices when you are running around locking down a guy like Luka.  But I actually think his team/positional defence has always been pretty mediocre - I routinely see him missing rotations, failing to get out to contest threes, etc.  And this does seem to be consistently reflected in his on/off defensive stats, which actually aren't anything to write home about.

Call me crazy, but I've been saying for a while now that I actually think Tatum is a better defensive player then Brown.  He doesn't get the Defensive hype Brown does because he's not that hyper aggressive, 'lock down' type defender.  But he's actually a very versatile and high IQ defensive player.  He has the lenght/agility to switch on pretty much every position on the court, he ia a very good defensive rebounder, he's usually in the right position at the right time, and I often see him making strong efforts to close out on perimeter shooters even when they aren't his primary defensive assignments.  I think Tatum is a hugely underrated defensive player, and (just as is true with the JB example) the advanced stats do reflect that.

I honestly believe Tatum is UNDER appreciated in this league. Yes, he can have his monents where he can take bad shots and get a little trigger happy.  But outside of that he is such an impactful player in so many ways on the court, and even though he's known for his scoring primarily, he's a guy who can have a poor offensive night and still finish the game with a +15 because he has so much impact with his ability to defend, rebound, pass and draw defensive attention.

[LilRip]

If you look at the defense stats I would wager that we are better with Jaylen on the floor in most cases.

I don't think you want to look at Jaylen's defensive stats then. When he was on the floor, the defense was considerably worse than when he was off. Jaylen can lock in 1-on-1 when required, but he is a bad off-ball defensive player and he can get lazy when carrying a heavier offensive load.

Pritchard is pretty much our only POA defender at the guard position (Hugo and Walsh are also solid, but they are wings). I will not try to make the argument that Pritchard is better than Jaylen, but Pritchard is a really good player in his role. And he has the ability to expand his role.

I have noticed this as well. 

Jaylen is a very good (and very aggressive) on ball defender in ISO situations, so he gets big recognition defensively because everyone notices when you are running around locking down a guy like Luka.  But I actually think his team/positional defence has always been pretty mediocre - I routinely see him missing rotations, failing to get out to contest threes, etc.  And this does seem to be consistently reflected in his on/off defensive stats, which actually aren't anything to write home about. 

Call me crazy, but I've been saying for a while now that I actually think Tatum is a better defensive player then Brown.  He doesn't get the Defensive hype Brown does because he's not that hyper aggressive, 'lock down' type defender.  But he's actually a very versatile and high IQ defensive player.  He has the lenght/agility to switch on pretty much every position on the court, he ia a very good defensive rebounder, he's usually in the right position at the right time, and I often see him making strong efforts to close out on perimeter shooters even when they aren't his primary defensive assignments.  I think Tatum is a hugely underrated defensive player, and (just as is true with the JB example) the advanced stats do reflect that. 

I honestly believe Tatum is UNDER appreciated in this league. Yes, he can have his monents where he can take bad shots and get a little trigger happy.  But outside of that he is such an impactful player in so many ways on the court, and even though he's known for his scoring primarily, he's a guy who can have a poor offensive night and still finish the game with a +15 because he has so much impact with his ability to defend, rebound, pass and draw defensive attention.

I agree with this and something I?ve said about Jaylen as well over the years. When he?s not on the ball, his defensive reads/instincts are not great.