NBA 2026-27 offseason trades, signings & rumors

[Who]

Otherwise, I can also see why Milwaukee may be enticed by that stash of draft picks. But Herro, Jacquez, Ware etc to build around with...is this the Milwaukee Heat? Giannis and Bam being a duo with nothing else around them? It's a lose/lose trade for both teams.

Trying to think what the Bucks would look like post-trade:

G: T Herro, K Porter Jr
G: R Rollins, AJ Green
F: Kyle Kuzma
F: B Portis, J Jaquez
C: M Turner, K Ware

It is not that bad of a team. That is 9 legit NBA rotation caliber players.

Hardest part of that squad would be getting them to play together on offense. Not much passing. None of the 3 bigs are passers. Not even average passers but non-passers. Kuzma isn't much of passer. Jaquez is their only frontcourt player who can pass. Two ball-handling guards which is good but both are average passers. T Herro the only guy who can consistently create his own offense.

With the exception of Herro, the other 4 members of that starting 5 are capable defenders. The bench gets weaker though. Jaquez. The bench guards. Ware at times plays D.

[Celtics2021]

So the issue with Jaylen being a part of the Giannis deal is that:

I'm not 100% sure Jaylen IS more valuable than the heat package, depending on what the Heat package is. On draft nice the Heat could in theory trade #13, 29', 31, 33' first rounders along with swaps in 28', 30', 32' plus Hero, Jaku, Jaquez and Ware*. Now obviously we don't know if all of that is on the table, but if I'm the Bucks I might prefer the pick heavy package from a team that will be locked into Giannis/Bam at Giannis' age 33-38 seasons over Jaylen.

Now, it depends on what you can spin Jaylen off for. If you can get back your own picks from Portland then that exceeds any MIA offer, but it's not obvious Portland would do that. I can see a scenario where they'd rather just keep those picks with the Bucks imploding. There's no other pick-based offer out there that is so obviously better than a bunch of Mia future draft capital. It would be a bit of a bet, but not a bad one.

Which leads to the whole problem with a Jaylen based offer: He'd the best individual piece the Bucks could get, but he's not the KIND of piece they want. Sure, Boston could blow away the MIA offer by doing Jaylen and a bunch of their own picks but they you get into the conversation of why you'd trade BOTH JAYLEN AND ALL YOUR PICKS. That's too much.

This is why 3 team teams are hard. You need to find a team that wants Jaylen at a 35% max, has the assets to offer a similar price to what Giannis would go for, and wouldn't simply pay that price for Giannis directly.

Couple things.  One, the Heat can not offer a first until 2030, because of protections on a pick that do not expire until 2028.  So it is three picks max.  #13, 2030, and 2032, or #13, 2031, 2033 if they wait until post draft.

Two, are they adding in a bunch of swaps?  Have not heard that.  If they do, the Celtics should let the Heat win the battle.  Not totally sure they can add all the swaps, either, because the Bucks are missing 1sts to swap some of those seasons.

The Heat would need to get Charlotte to remove the 1-14 protection for 2027, not sure how much Charlotte would require to do so.  But even if they don't Miami could still use "first allowable" language to conditionally give them picks in 29, 31, 33 with the downside of if Miami is in the lottery in 2027 the Bucks would essentially lose one of those picks.

As for the swaps the Bucks have picks in 2028, 2030, 2032. The 2028 one is swapped to hell, but that actually makes an incoming swap somewhat more valuable in that year. They own 2030 and 2032 outrtight.

Charlotte would definitely have them over a barrel for the protection removal.  If Charlotte agrees to remove it, the Heat get Giannis and so the pick is likely to be not great in a not great draft.  If they keep the Heat from getting Giannis, the pick is more likely to convey in 2028 to a worse Heat team than would give them a pick in 2027.

Meanwhile, the first allowable language would be really risky for the Bucks.  If the Heat retain their 2027 pick (unlikely but certainly not impossible given the new lottery odds) they cannot swap with Milwaukee because Milwaukee has no picks.  They would not get a pick in 2028 because it goes to Charlotte.  They could not get a pick in 2029 because of Stepian, nor swap because they do not have a first that year.  So the first pick they could get would be in 2030, allowing them picks in 2030 and 2032 and swaps in 2031 and 2033.  That is a very delayed compensation for Giannis, given they presumably do not like most of the players that would also come along.

[A Future of Stevens]

I think the other part of this is Miami's draft history. Even when they are bad, they don't bottom out. The highest draft pick they have had since Beasley at 2 (woof) in 2008, is Justice Winslow at 10 (double woof.)

I know the new lottery odds make it a flatter, more random lottery window. I just don't know if teams look at getting future Heat picks the same way they look at most other future teams.

[Vermont Green]

Herro, Jovic, and Ware (plus maybe Jaquez), plus 3 firsts is a pretty good offer, even if the picks aren't super high picks.  Even better if it is 4 firsts and some swaps.  I don't know if it is true that Brown alone is better than that.  Brown alone is better than all those players combined in my view, but the 3 or 4 picks add to this.

It is tough to comprare because the actual question is if what someone will give up for Brown plus what BOS would be willing to kick in is better than the MIA offer.  It is hard to know what some team is willing to give up for Brown.  I am guessing the MIA would give up Herro, Jovic, and Ware plus maybe 2 picks for Brown, something like that.  ATL or POR or HOU maybe something similar.

[Bobshot]

I hear you all, but stars sell tickets. Brown's value has never been higher after spending most of last season as the top scorer.

Poo poo platters have always been the way of siphoning stars from lesser teams.

The best deal for both teams is Brown for Giannis straight up with some window dressing, if needed.

Giannis gives the Celtics another KG and needed presence in the post. Hopefully, fewer 3P shots.
I do have concern about his soft knees which he rested every 4-5 games last season.

[keevsnick]

So the issue with Jaylen being a part of the Giannis deal is that:

I'm not 100% sure Jaylen IS more valuable than the heat package, depending on what the Heat package is. On draft nice the Heat could in theory trade #13, 29', 31, 33' first rounders along with swaps in 28', 30', 32' plus Hero, Jaku, Jaquez and Ware*. Now obviously we don't know if all of that is on the table, but if I'm the Bucks I might prefer the pick heavy package from a team that will be locked into Giannis/Bam at Giannis' age 33-38 seasons over Jaylen.

Now, it depends on what you can spin Jaylen off for. If you can get back your own picks from Portland then that exceeds any MIA offer, but it's not obvious Portland would do that. I can see a scenario where they'd rather just keep those picks with the Bucks imploding. There's no other pick-based offer out there that is so obviously better than a bunch of Mia future draft capital. It would be a bit of a bet, but not a bad one.

Which leads to the whole problem with a Jaylen based offer: He'd the best individual piece the Bucks could get, but he's not the KIND of piece they want. Sure, Boston could blow away the MIA offer by doing Jaylen and a bunch of their own picks but they you get into the conversation of why you'd trade BOTH JAYLEN AND ALL YOUR PICKS. That's too much.

This is why 3 team teams are hard. You need to find a team that wants Jaylen at a 35% max, has the assets to offer a similar price to what Giannis would go for, and wouldn't simply pay that price for Giannis directly.

Couple things.  One, the Heat can not offer a first until 2030, because of protections on a pick that do not expire until 2028.  So it is three picks max.  #13, 2030, and 2032, or #13, 2031, 2033 if they wait until post draft.

Two, are they adding in a bunch of swaps?  Have not heard that.  If they do, the Celtics should let the Heat win the battle.  Not totally sure they can add all the swaps, either, because the Bucks are missing 1sts to swap some of those seasons.

The Heat would need to get Charlotte to remove the 1-14 protection for 2027, not sure how much Charlotte would require to do so.  But even if they don't Miami could still use "first allowable" language to conditionally give them picks in 29, 31, 33 with the downside of if Miami is in the lottery in 2027 the Bucks would essentially lose one of those picks.

As for the swaps the Bucks have picks in 2028, 2030, 2032. The 2028 one is swapped to hell, but that actually makes an incoming swap somewhat more valuable in that year. They own 2030 and 2032 outrtight.

Charlotte would definitely have them over a barrel for the protection removal.  If Charlotte agrees to remove it, the Heat get Giannis and so the pick is likely to be not great in a not great draft.  If they keep the Heat from getting Giannis, the pick is more likely to convey in 2028 to a worse Heat team than would give them a pick in 2027.

Meanwhile, the first allowable language would be really risky for the Bucks.  If the Heat retain their 2027 pick (unlikely but certainly not impossible given the new lottery odds) they cannot swap with Milwaukee because Milwaukee has no picks.  They would not get a pick in 2028 because it goes to Charlotte.  They could not get a pick in 2029 because of Stepian, nor swap because they do not have a first that year.  So the first pick they could get would be in 2030, allowing them picks in 2030 and 2032 and swaps in 2031 and 2033.  That is a very delayed compensation for Giannis, given they presumably do not like most of the players that would also come along.

I would think they'd PREFER delayed compensation for Giannis. The further out they push the draft compensation the more likely Giannis is old, injured and an anchor contract on the team you are trading with. Obviously there is some loss in having to wait to receive assets, but unless the Bucks ae getting back their own picks in the deal they aren't going to be good in the near term anyway.

[Celtics2021]

So the issue with Jaylen being a part of the Giannis deal is that:

I'm not 100% sure Jaylen IS more valuable than the heat package, depending on what the Heat package is. On draft nice the Heat could in theory trade #13, 29', 31, 33' first rounders along with swaps in 28', 30', 32' plus Hero, Jaku, Jaquez and Ware*. Now obviously we don't know if all of that is on the table, but if I'm the Bucks I might prefer the pick heavy package from a team that will be locked into Giannis/Bam at Giannis' age 33-38 seasons over Jaylen.

Now, it depends on what you can spin Jaylen off for. If you can get back your own picks from Portland then that exceeds any MIA offer, but it's not obvious Portland would do that. I can see a scenario where they'd rather just keep those picks with the Bucks imploding. There's no other pick-based offer out there that is so obviously better than a bunch of Mia future draft capital. It would be a bit of a bet, but not a bad one.

Which leads to the whole problem with a Jaylen based offer: He'd the best individual piece the Bucks could get, but he's not the KIND of piece they want. Sure, Boston could blow away the MIA offer by doing Jaylen and a bunch of their own picks but they you get into the conversation of why you'd trade BOTH JAYLEN AND ALL YOUR PICKS. That's too much.

This is why 3 team teams are hard. You need to find a team that wants Jaylen at a 35% max, has the assets to offer a similar price to what Giannis would go for, and wouldn't simply pay that price for Giannis directly.

Couple things.  One, the Heat can not offer a first until 2030, because of protections on a pick that do not expire until 2028.  So it is three picks max.  #13, 2030, and 2032, or #13, 2031, 2033 if they wait until post draft.

Two, are they adding in a bunch of swaps?  Have not heard that.  If they do, the Celtics should let the Heat win the battle.  Not totally sure they can add all the swaps, either, because the Bucks are missing 1sts to swap some of those seasons.

The Heat would need to get Charlotte to remove the 1-14 protection for 2027, not sure how much Charlotte would require to do so.  But even if they don't Miami could still use "first allowable" language to conditionally give them picks in 29, 31, 33 with the downside of if Miami is in the lottery in 2027 the Bucks would essentially lose one of those picks.

As for the swaps the Bucks have picks in 2028, 2030, 2032. The 2028 one is swapped to hell, but that actually makes an incoming swap somewhat more valuable in that year. They own 2030 and 2032 outrtight.

Charlotte would definitely have them over a barrel for the protection removal.  If Charlotte agrees to remove it, the Heat get Giannis and so the pick is likely to be not great in a not great draft.  If they keep the Heat from getting Giannis, the pick is more likely to convey in 2028 to a worse Heat team than would give them a pick in 2027.

Meanwhile, the first allowable language would be really risky for the Bucks.  If the Heat retain their 2027 pick (unlikely but certainly not impossible given the new lottery odds) they cannot swap with Milwaukee because Milwaukee has no picks.  They would not get a pick in 2028 because it goes to Charlotte.  They could not get a pick in 2029 because of Stepian, nor swap because they do not have a first that year.  So the first pick they could get would be in 2030, allowing them picks in 2030 and 2032 and swaps in 2031 and 2033.  That is a very delayed compensation for Giannis, given they presumably do not like most of the players that would also come along.

I would think they'd PREFER delayed compensation for Giannis. The further out they push the draft compensation the more likely Giannis is old, injured and an anchor contract on the team you are trading with. Obviously there is some loss in having to wait to receive assets, but unless the Bucks ae getting back their own picks in the deal they aren't going to be good in the near term anyway.

You are trying to talk yourself into a position that does not make sense.

If the Heat are blocked from trading a pick until 2030, Milwaukee gets:  #13, twos first from 2030-2033, and two swaps from 2030-2033.

If the Heat are not blocked from trading until 2030, and can instead trade a 1st in 2029 as well, Milwaukee gets the same as above plus a swap in 2028 and a 1st in 2029.

If they go with the first allowable language, as you suggest, they run the real risk of losing a first and a swap, with no real benefit.

[Who]

Get Up: "He's going to re-sign with the Wizards, likely on a three-year, very large contract." @Windhorstespn gives an update on what could be next for Trae Young 🏀

x.com

[boscel33]

I'm drawing a line in the sand and stating JB7 will not be dealt for Giannis! 

I'm not willing to say he won't be dealt, but not for GA!  I still look at Houston as the landing spot for JB7 due to Ime.

[Who]

Tim McMahon

Now, there is a gulf between the Jazz front office and Walker Kessler's camp in terms of his value. The Jazz have put it off on the table for five years and roughly $140 million. Walker Kessler's representation believes his value is significantly higher than that.

There were discussions with the Indiana Pacers before they traded for Zubac about trading for Kessler, giving up two first-round picks and signing him to a deal that would have been north of that.

The Jazz have also been very firm: They want a five-year deal, they want a five-year commitment. Kessler is a restricted free agent. The Jazz would have the right to match any offer that he received in restricted free agency, and they're using that leverage. These are tense negotiations.

5 years $137.5 million is the deal offered by Utah.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

A pair of "rumors" came up today, by Windhorst and Fischer.

Windhorst said that the Bucks still plan to trade Giannis before the draft, but they have not been happy with the offers they've received so far. If that is true, then the rumored trade offer by the Heat is, indeed, not the right kind of trade, or they do not value the players/picks like the national media do. The rumored deal included all the picks the Heat could offer, so its not like the Bucks are holding out for more picks. The rumor of them not being excited about Herro's next contract is one piece of that. However, I'm interested in the rest. If Ware really is the kind of blue-chip prospect that many think, why wouldn't they take that deal? If the prevalent opinion is that Ware is a long-term NBA starter and fringe all-star, then getting him with a few other young prospects and a bunch of late firsts should be a good offer, right?

Are the Bucks really just hoping to get the Celtics involved to get the Blazers, Hawks, or Pelicans as a third-team. Are they hoping to get their picks back along with young talent?

What I haven't heard is exactly what the Bucks are hoping to get, but reading between the lines, I think it has to do with either a more interesting prospect than the Heat can offer, or more control of their own first round picks moving forward.

The other rumor is from Fischer, and basically states that the Celtics haven't liked how long this has carried on with Brown's name in the news cycle.

That makes me wonder if the Celtics gave the ok to talk with the Hawks and Blazers about the kind of trade package they could offer for a player like Brown, and either the Bucks or the Celtics have been non-committal and want a bit more, but the Hawks and Blazers are playing hard-ball.

[tonydelk]

Tim McMahon

Now, there is a gulf between the Jazz front office and Walker Kessler's camp in terms of his value. The Jazz have put it off on the table for five years and roughly $140 million. Walker Kessler's representation believes his value is significantly higher than that.

There were discussions with the Indiana Pacers before they traded for Zubac about trading for Kessler, giving up two first-round picks and signing him to a deal that would have been north of that.

The Jazz have also been very firm: They want a five-year deal, they want a five-year commitment. Kessler is a restricted free agent. The Jazz would have the right to match any offer that he received in restricted free agency, and they're using that leverage. These are tense negotiations.

5 years $137.5 million is the deal offered by Utah.

That is a huge overpay IMO.  He missed the entire year and has not made any ALL NBA Defensive teams, ALL NBA teams, no ALL Star appearances yet he wants more then 27.5m per year?  I thought he'd be at 22-25 so he's getting more then I thought hed get.  I'd let him play out his last year and go to restricted FA as well if I were Utah. 

[Who]

Jake Fischer: I'm told Arizona guard Brayden Burries impressed Clippers staffers during his visit in Los Angeles on Tuesday, and is very much under consideration for the fifth pick in next Tuesday?s NBA Draft. Sources say another top candidate for No. 5, Mikel Brown Jr., is slated to workout for the Clippers tomorrow.

x.com

Two guards who can play SG rather than just PG.

[Who]

Tim McMahon

Now, there is a gulf between the Jazz front office and Walker Kessler's camp in terms of his value. The Jazz have put it off on the table for five years and roughly $140 million. Walker Kessler's representation believes his value is significantly higher than that.

There were discussions with the Indiana Pacers before they traded for Zubac about trading for Kessler, giving up two first-round picks and signing him to a deal that would have been north of that.

The Jazz have also been very firm: They want a five-year deal, they want a five-year commitment. Kessler is a restricted free agent. The Jazz would have the right to match any offer that he received in restricted free agency, and they're using that leverage. These are tense negotiations.

5 years $137.5 million is the deal offered by Utah.

That is a huge overpay IMO.  He missed the entire year and has not made any ALL NBA Defensive teams, ALL NBA teams, no ALL Star appearances yet he wants more then 27.5m per year?  I thought he'd be at 22-25 so he's getting more then I thought hed get.  I'd let him play out his last year and go to restricted FA as well if I were Utah.

Stars are getting $40-70 million.

Average starters are getting $30 million.

Solid but below average starters (says around 20th in position rankings) are now making $20-25 million.

The next level below that is the MLE at $15mil which is mostly being aimed at high end bench players.

The salaries have gone way up in the last few years.

----------

$30 million seems fair for Kessler. He is an average starting center. A middle of the pack starting center. Say somewhere around 15th best center in the league. Some have him a bit higher (say 12th), some have him around 15th, some a bit lower (18th) ... but that his general range. A middle of the pack of starter. That is what middle of the pack starters are getting nowadays.

To go far above $30mil for Kessler is a big risk in my eyes. You can probably live with (but be unhappy with) $35mil. $40mil would be ridiculous.

[Who]

If Ware really is the kind of blue-chip prospect that many think, why wouldn't they take that deal? If the prevalent opinion is that Ware is a long-term NBA starter and fringe all-star, then getting him with a few other young prospects and a bunch of late firsts should be a good offer, right?

I don't think Ware is being rated as a blue chip prospect. I'd consider that to be someone with star potential. All-Star or better.

I think he is seen as a young center who has the potential to be a long term starter.

A good piece but not a great piece.