For what it is worth, John Hollinger, now of The Athletic, just released an article of the 25 best free agents, including those with player and team options. Neemy was 8th, so those hoping for an upgrade will probably be disappointed. Thank goodness he has a team option.
8. Neemias Queta, C, Boston, (team option, partial guarantee): $25,638,207
Hollinger's system values Queta at $25mil per season.
Queta proved himself as a viable starting center and is worth several multiples of his $2.67 million salary, but the Celtics have an incentive to decline the option if they can get him to re-sign to a longer deal on good terms.
However, there may be a sweet spot around four years and $65 million to $70 million that lets Boston have its cake and eat it too.
So Hollinger thinks if BOS decline the team option they could get a deal that is more team friendly in the next few years. That number he suggested has Queta at $16-18 million per annum.
So a 4yr deal at $25mil is roughly $100mil. Plus his $2.67mil. 5 years. Divided by 5 is roughly $20mil per season. I presume Hollinger is factoring in a further reduction based on giving Queta all that guaranteed money now instead of risking waiting 12 more months.
I thought Queta would be in the $20-25mil per annum range. $20mil over 4 years plus his $2.75mil would be $16.5mil. So a $20-25mil range factoring in his team option would be $16.5mil to $20.5mil per annum.
So if BOS did decline their team option and give Queta that money, they wouldn't be able to spend their full MLE or full TPE. Correct? I think that is correct. We would lose our ability to improve the team this summer in favour of getting Queta at a lower number in years 2-4. The team would standstill. That would be disappointing.
I am leaning towards we are better off spending the TPE and giving Queta the extra money 12 months from now. That way we see the team improve. They are ready to pay the tax anyway in 12 more months time.
