Trade Idea: Celtics - Pelicans

[Vermont Green]

I was listening to Zion's end of season media stuff. About 15min of answers. Nothing that would you more convinced about Zion. The opposite effect - for me anyway. He sounded like a child who needed to be told what to do and no direction / agency of his own without being told what he needs to do.

Anyway, there was one comment about Zion wanting to become a 3 level scorer. This made me curious. What does his shot-chart look like these days.

At the rim = 345-464   74.4% FG
3-10 feet = 124-305   40.7% FG

10-15 feet = 14-31 45.2% FG

16-23 feet = 0-3 FGA
3 pointers = 1-4 FGA

A 3 level scorer!? He is not even a 2 level scorer!

769 of his total 807 shots came inside of 10 feet. That is 95% of his shot attempts. He has no midrange game. He has no outside shot. He is 7 years into career.

On a related note, I was listening to a Mike Korzemba video on Zion and he finishes off asking a question - what will happen to Zion's game as his athleticism begins to fade? Since he has failed to develop any type of jump-shot in his 7 years in the league. A good point. Zion does look like a player who will decline earlier in his career due to the lack of skill-level to fall back on as his athleticism goes.

Part of the issue is that he has hardly played in those 7 seasons in the league.  Hard to develop a game when you aren't playing.

Kidding aside, I think this is a really good analysis.  It shows that this last season was good for him in that he actually stayed on the court mostly.  He played less than starter minutes (<30 per game) but a major improvement over recent seasons.  But he did not play at a high level.   It would be interesting to see his shot numbers for this first couple of seasons when he actually was a dominant player.  Actually, it is only one season, his second in 2020-21.  Since then, it has been down hill until somewhat of recovery this past season.

[Who]

I am looking at some of D Queen's databallr stats. They have ranked as a -3.0 in defense RAPM to rank in the 1st percentile league wide. Worst defensive numbers in the league. Yeah, that sounds about right to me.

Sengun was a -1.3 to rank in the 12th percentile as a rookie. Also a very poor defender albeit not as bad as Queen.

[Moranis]

Zion had a high level season. Not elite, but borderline all star numbers.  21 ppg on just 13 shots with a YS% of 64.4%.  That is 1.62 points per shot.  That is uber elite far higher than prime Wilt as a comparison.  His 1.6 assist to turnover ratio is solid and that was the lowest it has been in 4 seasons.  Not a great rebounder at 5.7 rpg and 10.3 trb%.  WS/48 at .159 is very good (better than Tatum, Brown, or White). 

So Zion in a down year is an elitely efficient scorer, that doesn't turn it over much, and is a solid passer.  He scores almost entirely inside, which is something Boston doesn't have either. 

I'd love to acquire Zion. I think he'd be great next to Tatum.  I don't think it will happen though as even if Boston was willing to trade Brown to New Orleans, I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown. They'd want Brown to play with Zion.  Now if we could get Zion for White and draft picks, we should. Then move Brown in a trade for a PG (maybe you get Sengun and Vanvleet or maybe a Murray centered trade with Denver)

[Vermont Green]

I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown.

Hard to know of course but after 7 mostly disappointing seasons waiting for Zion to figure it out, I could very much see NOP as being ready to break up with Zion.  They know better than anyone what is going on with Zion.  Again, I am not claiming to know, just my opinion, but if I was NOP I would be so ready to move on from Zion and getting Brown for him would be a home run.  You go from having a player you have no idea what you are going to get to a player who is a consistent All-NBA level player every season, every game.

With increase in the Giannis chatter that is happening, I am wondering how interested MIL would be in Zion.  He is 25 so really does reset the clock for them (unlike Brown who only is a little younger than Giannis).  For example, I think the following works:

Giannis to BOS
Brown to NOP
Zion and Herb Jones to MIL

Maybe add picks to MIL, 1 from NOP and 1 from BOS.  To me, this is a win for BOS, a win for NOP, but I am not so sure for MIL.  I am happy to try and set up a call so Moranis can explain to MIL how good/efficient Zion is and how this is a great deal for them.

[Who]

I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown.

Health

[Vermont Green]

I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown.

Health

Commitment

[michigan adam]

I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown.

Hard to know of course but after 7 mostly disappointing seasons waiting for Zion to figure it out, I could very much see NOP as being ready to break up with Zion.  They know better than anyone what is going on with Zion.  Again, I am not claiming to know, just my opinion, but if I was NOP I would be so ready to move on from Zion and getting Brown for him would be a home run.  You go from having a player you have no idea what you are going to get to a player who is a consistent All-NBA level player every season, every game.

With increase in the Giannis chatter that is happening, I am wondering how interested MIL would be in Zion.  He is 25 so really does reset the clock for them (unlike Brown who only is a little younger than Giannis).  For example, I think the following works:

Giannis to BOS
Brown to NOP
Zion and Herb Jones to MIL

Maybe add picks to MIL, 1 from NOP and 1 from BOS.  To me, this is a win for BOS, a win for NOP, but I am not so sure for MIL.  I am happy to try and set up a call so Moranis can explain to MIL how good/efficient Zion is and how this is a great deal for them.

If there 2 picks to go to mil in a trade like this they both come from nop.  Dion is so overated( and paid) due to injuries that for them to get a jb for him is almost a joke. Giannis is trending the same direction, although starting from a top 3 player in the NBA in his prime. He is no longer in his prime.  Jb is. There is certainly an argument as to who currently the best player in this trade. I'd argue jb.

[Vermont Green]

I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown.

Hard to know of course but after 7 mostly disappointing seasons waiting for Zion to figure it out, I could very much see NOP as being ready to break up with Zion.  They know better than anyone what is going on with Zion.  Again, I am not claiming to know, just my opinion, but if I was NOP I would be so ready to move on from Zion and getting Brown for him would be a home run.  You go from having a player you have no idea what you are going to get to a player who is a consistent All-NBA level player every season, every game.

With increase in the Giannis chatter that is happening, I am wondering how interested MIL would be in Zion.  He is 25 so really does reset the clock for them (unlike Brown who only is a little younger than Giannis).  For example, I think the following works:

Giannis to BOS
Brown to NOP
Zion and Herb Jones to MIL

Maybe add picks to MIL, 1 from NOP and 1 from BOS.  To me, this is a win for BOS, a win for NOP, but I am not so sure for MIL.  I am happy to try and set up a call so Moranis can explain to MIL how good/efficient Zion is and how this is a great deal for them.

If there 2 picks to go to mil in a trade like this they both come from nop.  Dion is so overated( and paid) due to injuries that for them to get a jb for him is almost a joke. Giannis is trending the same direction, although starting from a top 3 player in the NBA in his prime. He is no longer in his prime.  Jb is. There is certainly an argument as to who currently the best player in this trade. I'd argue jb.

I think Giannis has slightly more trade value than Brown, thus the pick from BOS.  So if you are suggesting the NOP would be willing to give up two picks plus Zion and Jones for Brown, great.  I think that would potentially seal the deal for MIL.  They get Zion + Jones + 3 picks.

The thing with Zion to MIL is that if he doesn't work out, they are rebuilding anyway.  Just get rid of him and move on with whoever you get with the draft picks.  But if he snaps out of it and becomes the player it once appeared he could be, it is a home run for MIL.  There is risk for MIL, but it isn't like you would be jeopardizing a couple years title window like it would be for BOS.

[michigan adam]

I don't see why New Orleans would trade Zion for Brown.

Hard to know of course but after 7 mostly disappointing seasons waiting for Zion to figure it out, I could very much see NOP as being ready to break up with Zion.  They know better than anyone what is going on with Zion.  Again, I am not claiming to know, just my opinion, but if I was NOP I would be so ready to move on from Zion and getting Brown for him would be a home run.  You go from having a player you have no idea what you are going to get to a player who is a consistent All-NBA level player every season, every game.

With increase in the Giannis chatter that is happening, I am wondering how interested MIL would be in Zion.  He is 25 so really does reset the clock for them (unlike Brown who only is a little younger than Giannis).  For example, I think the following works:

Giannis to BOS
Brown to NOP
Zion and Herb Jones to MIL

Maybe add picks to MIL, 1 from NOP and 1 from BOS.  To me, this is a win for BOS, a win for NOP, but I am not so sure for MIL.  I am happy to try and set up a call so Moranis can explain to MIL how good/efficient Zion is and how this is a great deal for them.

If there 2 picks to go to mil in a trade like this they both come from nop.  Dion is so overated( and paid) due to injuries that for them to get a jb for him is almost a joke. Giannis is trending the same direction, although starting from a top 3 player in the NBA in his prime. He is no longer in his prime.  Jb is. There is certainly an argument as to who currently the best player in this trade. I'd argue jb.

I think Giannis has slightly more trade value than Brown, thus the pick from BOS.  So if you are suggesting the NOP would be willing to give up two picks plus Zion and Jones for Brown, great.  I think that would potentially seal the deal for MIL.  They get Zion + Jones + 3 picks.

The thing with Zion to MIL is that if he doesn't work out, they are rebuilding anyway.  Just get rid of him and move on with whoever you get with the draft picks.  But if he snaps out of it and becomes the player it once appeared he could be, it is a home run for MIL.  There is risk for MIL, but it isn't like you would be jeopardizing a couple years title window like it would be for BOS.

Ok.  I'll be more clear. IMHO I dont do this deal if I'm Boston.  I do it straight up, but not with the pick.  I do not think giannis will be as productive as he ages, and he is injured too often lately.  Bad deal for Boston. If I'm NOP I love this deal.  I get rid of Zion, and more than replace him with giannis who gets injured LESS.  Take Boston out of the deal.