Trade Idea: Celtics - Pelicans

[Vermont Green]

I think Brown has proven to me enough that he can't lead a team when it really matters and he has tunnel vision dribbling the ball. Cons outweigh the pros, definitely not worth his $300M max. He's also had a knee surgery and overreliant on his athleticism. Unload his contract and bring in some new faces.

I guess you are saying yes to some version of a trade to NOP?  Sounds like you think Brown has reached his ceiling and you are not all that impressed with the ceiling, at least not at the money.  That is a fair take.  I do not think that Brown's current contract is a bad one, but his next one might be.  It could be the time to sell high on Brown.

Brown had a really good season and the league noticed.  I don't see it as unreasonable to rate Brown as a top 10 player in the league, based on last season.  He may not sustain that level of play, but he is a good player in my view and I believe in the view of the league (other teams that might trade for him).  There is some risk in paying Brown again, I concede that.  But trading him is a risk also.

This is where I'm at. I'm not actively trying to get rid of Brown at any cost, but I am also intrigued by what we could get for him. Now absolutely is the time to sell high. What does selling high look like right now, though? Can we get enough back to make it worth it.

In talking about a trade with NOP, I think we need to leave out the possibility of Zion even being in the deal. It was a fun idea, but I'd imagine NOP wants to add Brown to Zion. Murphy is absolutely a very good young player on a fantastic contract, but what is the plan with Murray and what picks would we be acquiring.

I know it doesn't seem like the most exciting deal - Murphy, Murray, and picks - but done right (Murray to another team for a big and the picks landing), it could propel us to another level.

Murray + Murphy for Brown, that version does work.  Murphy fits the TPE allowing BOS to kind of roll that over, but the trade work even without it.

I don't know where NOP stands on Zion.  To even be in the discussion for a trade to get Brown, some combination of (2) of Zion, Murphy, Murray would have to come back, plus picks.  Having Zion and Brown going forward would be the most potential upside I guess.  And even if Zion crashes and burns, NOP could still flip Brown later and get plenty back.

As to Boston, if they got back Murphy and Murray, that isn't so bad.  I am assuming that Murray is healthy, passes a physical, but with that assumption, BOS would have:

Murray
White
Murphy
Tatum
Queta

Just in terms of the starting line up, you go from Brown + Hauser to Murphy + Murray.  That isn't necessarily a step back, there is risk, as I have said, but it could be good too.  The risk is (1) Murphy gets exposed as a stat compiler on a bad team and isn't the same on a good team, and (2) Dejounte Murray at 30 will not be the same as he once was.

Then BOS would have draft picks and a TPE to try and go find a trade for a better center.

[Celtics2021]

I think Brown has proven to me enough that he can't lead a team when it really matters and he has tunnel vision dribbling the ball. Cons outweigh the pros, definitely not worth his $300M max. He's also had a knee surgery and overreliant on his athleticism. Unload his contract and bring in some new faces.

I guess you are saying yes to some version of a trade to NOP?  Sounds like you think Brown has reached his ceiling and you are not all that impressed with the ceiling, at least not at the money.  That is a fair take.  I do not think that Brown's current contract is a bad one, but his next one might be.  It could be the time to sell high on Brown.

Brown had a really good season and the league noticed.  I don't see it as unreasonable to rate Brown as a top 10 player in the league, based on last season.  He may not sustain that level of play, but he is a good player in my view and I believe in the view of the league (other teams that might trade for him).  There is some risk in paying Brown again, I concede that.  But trading him is a risk also.

This is where I'm at. I'm not actively trying to get rid of Brown at any cost, but I am also intrigued by what we could get for him. Now absolutely is the time to sell high. What does selling high look like right now, though? Can we get enough back to make it worth it.

In talking about a trade with NOP, I think we need to leave out the possibility of Zion even being in the deal. It was a fun idea, but I'd imagine NOP wants to add Brown to Zion. Murphy is absolutely a very good young player on a fantastic contract, but what is the plan with Murray and what picks would we be acquiring.

I know it doesn't seem like the most exciting deal - Murphy, Murray, and picks - but done right (Murray to another team for a big and the picks landing), it could propel us to another level.

As I said in one of these threads, with Murphy-Murray, it depends on what the draft compensation would be.  The draft lottery odds have flattened for the next three seasons, and New Orleans with or without Jaylen looks like a potential lottery team to me.  Would the Celtics get multiple bites at that apple?  I could be convinced.  Just the 2027 pick in a draft that talent evaluators are not excited about?  Lateral move at best, and that requires Murray to return to his form from 3 seasons ago, which is far from a given.  Further, if Murray does return to form, it could easily be a one-year rental as he has a player option.

I do not think I would do the deal for any less than unprotected picks in 27 and 29, and an unprotected swap in 2028.  That would allow the Celtics to either develop cost-controlled higher end talent or have some assets to trade in a TPE or attach to Murray to bring back another high-tier starter.  Even then I do not love it, because while I am a fan of Murphy, I do not see someone scratching at the surface of stardom, and I am not sure from where a second star next to Tatum would appear, unless we hit the lottery with one of those picks.  The team would be similarly competitive as last year, which means its playoff success will be determined a lot by matchup luck, which this year we lost out on.

[jambr380]

VG and C2021 - I agree with a lot of what both of you have presented. The draft compensation is the biggest piece for me. And while I do understand some appeal in getting Murray, I would be much more interested in shopping him around for a big and then using the MLE to bring in a guard. Taking in Murphy to our TPE would create a brand new one that we could possibly use at the beginning of next offseason when we are ready to go into the tax again. His play on the floor and his contract create a lot of options for us.

But if we're talking good - but not great - players and draft compensation, then we need to extend our search beyond NOP. I have seen a lot of rumbling of Portland being interested in Jaylen. We have already discussed ideas revolving around Houston. And would any of the teams drafting in the top 4 in this draft consider Jaylen the piece to propel him to the top?

There are so many possibilities. And I guess I am just getting caught up in what Brad might think is the best option and if he will pull the trigger. It's exciting to think about even if there are uncertainties moving forward.

[Celtics4ever]

Murphy. Murray and Missi and picks.   We are giving up a top ten player.

[jambr380]

Murphy. Murray and Missi and picks.   We are giving up a top ten player.

Yeah, I keep forgetting to add Missi. He's not a world-beater, but he's cheap and has potential. He's a must in a trade and I assume he wouldn't be a hold up either. Send them Harper or Amari if they insist

[Who]

I know it doesn't seem like the most exciting deal - Murphy, Murray, and picks - but done right (Murray to another team for a big and the picks landing), it could propel us to another level.

I am not sure how much we could expect out of a deal like that. About 20 of the 30 teams are locked in with their current PGs. So that leaves about 1/3rd of the league. About half of those teams are rebuilding and not interested. That leaves around 5 teams to deal with when trading a PG like Dejounte Murray.

The PG market is limited unless you are trading a top tier star.

---------------

Any ideas on which big men might be attainable for Dejounte Murray?

My first thoughts are that they would be similar to the big men attainable for the TPE. Similar names. Nic Claxton, Naz Reid, Jakob Poeltl, Myles Turner. Similar list of targets.

[Who]

In talking about a trade with NOP, I think we need to leave out the possibility of Zion even being in the deal. It was a fun idea, but I'd imagine NOP wants to add Brown to Zion.

I am trying to imagine what that NOP team would be:

G: J Fears, J Poole
G: Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins
F: Jaylen, (FA)
F: Zion, S Bey
C: D Queen, (FA)

It is hard to see that team going far with the 2 rookies in the starting lineup holding them back. Both of those rookies look far away from where they need to be. Like 3-4 year projects.

Herb Jones is the only other winner in the team outside of Zion & Jaylen. Then you got the rookies and a 3rd youngster in J Hawkins. And a journeyman in S Bey. And J Poole who on occasions helps a team but more often hurts his team.

I am not even sure they go .500. A lot would depend on those FA spots. Gets vets in there that can help immediately and it could be a 45-48 win team. Get middling guys, it is closer to .500. Get bad guys and it might be a sub .500 team.

[Who]

I am genuinely curious, not trying to be snarky. Why did the Pelicans only win 22 games last year if Zion and Murphy were that productive? Or are they that bad at defense? I know the Pelicans view that young center as the future.

A few factors

The Rookies

The 2 rookies were terrible. Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen. They not only did not help win games but actively made the team worse. They were probably a -10 wins by themselves. Replace them with average players and you might to .500 because you are not only taking off the -10 wins but you are adding around 8 wins with the two vets. An 18 win turnaround.

Herb Jones

The other big factor in their bad season was Herb Jones. He shot 41-42% from 3PT range 3 years ago but he has sunk back to 31% these past 2 years. Even worse than his first 2 seasons when he was a 33% shooter. So Herb Jones has become a 1-way player at this point in his career. A terrific defender but a liability on offense. Then to make things worse he had a terrible year with his 2pt shooting as well dropping from 53-56% to 47% (90% of his twos are within 10 feet). So his overall FG% shrunk from 47-50% to 43% to 38% last season. His TS% was 49%!! Under 50% TS. He had a terrible year. Worst season of his career.

Herb Jones was a guy that was worth 7-10 wins a season depending on how he shot the 3 to a guy who was an overall net negative contributor. Meaning he was a -? wins guy. I don't know what number you would give him in terms of minus wins but it wasn't positive. It wasn't neutral. It was negative.

Supporting Cast

Jordan Hawkins still can't defend anyone. He is a negative more than a positive off the bench. Missi is still a below average player who is learning how to play defense. DeAndre Jordan is not an NBA caliber player anymore. So their 3 centers (Queen, Missi, D Jordan) were all liabilities who hurt the team.

Seddiq Bey was a pleasant surprise for them. He gave them good minutes as a backup PF.

Injuries

Zion missed 20 games.
Dejounte Murray missed 65-70 games.
Jordan Poole missed half a season. 39 games played.
Kevon Looney missed 60 games.

Not an injury but a trade. Jose Alvarado was their best PG and he was traded halfway through the season (41 games played).

Poole shot only 37% FG 33% 3PT 53% TS. His only value is his scoring ability. So he was a net negative as well. Kevon Looney was poor when he did play. It looks like his NBA career might be over.

Roundup

So you only had two starters helping the team who were Zion & Trey Murphy and only 1 bench player you could trust in S Bey. Their next best player was Missi - who wasn't good.

Edit: I'd also add a quick note on Trey Murphy.

Trey Murphy doesn't impact winning in a huge way. In a good way, yes. In a huge way, no. He is similar to Mikal Bridges. He doesn't create much of his own offense. You can't run your offense through him because he has limited shot-creation, limited handles, limited playmaking. Like Mikal Bridges does. But as a 3rd/4th option playing off of others, they are winning players. And they are strong defensive players. So they have two-way value. But you can't build a team around them.

So Trey Murphy is miscast as a 2nd option on this team and even worse when he is asked to be a #1 option when Zion is not on the floor (only 29.5mpg, only 60 games played).

Now if Trey Murphy was here playing behind JT and JB, that would be ideal for him.

[Moranis]

Murray does not need to be included.  Murphy, Jones, Looney (or Fears) is enough money to trade for Brown.  They also have Poole.  I'm not saying those are better options than Murray necessarily, but there are a lot of moving parts. 

Like is Murphy, Jones, Fears, Missi better than Murphy, Murray with similar draft compensation.  I'd probably prefer the former with the young guys, maybe even if it was less future draft picks.  Fears has talent though is raw.

So NOP keeps Zion and Murray while adding Brown and still has Queen, Bey, Poole.  Boston gets a high level PG prospect along with a better fitting though less talented younger version of Brown, a backup center, a bench wing defender, and 2 future draft picks.  That seems like the type of trade that could really pay off if Fears develops and Boston does something useful with the picks.