Trade Idea: Celtics - Pelicans

[Goldstar88]

This is the issue with Zion, you may be getting an all star or even all NBA player, or you may be getting the next Ben Simmons.  Either end of this extreme is very reasonably possible.  BOS management can assess this, with consideration as to whether his weight or attitude/maturity is likely to be better or worse going forward, but this uncertainty represents risk.

There is risk with Murphy also, but less.  Murphy could continue to improve and maybe be an all star, or he could be exposed as a stat compiler on a bad team.  His floor-ceiling range is not nearly as extreme as Zion's, but there is risk and uncertainty with him also.

Then you look at Brown, all star, 2nd team all NBA, NBA finals MVP, League MVP vote-getter, his floor-ceiling range is pretty certain.  Not much risk at all.  You pretty much know what you are getting with him.

I don?t think that is a good comparison. Zion has been in the league for 6 seasons and is a career 24pts/6rebs/4ast player. He is not a good 3pt shooter, but his overall splits are solid at 60/32/70. Have not heard any coaches or players having problems with Zion. Not similar to Ben Simmons at all.

I absolutely see the potential worst case for Zion to be Ben Simmons.  This appears less likely than a year or so ago, after he had a solid season, but it is still a very real possibility.  I am not saying that is the likely outcome, but that risk is real. 

And even for this most recent "good" season, he only played 62 games.  He has played 30 or less games in half his NBA seasons.  This guy could still totally crash and burn himself right out of the league.  He probably won't, but the likelihood is not 0%.  It is a possibility that has to be factored in to any potential trade consideration.

Ben Simmons is a career 13pts/7ast/7rebs with horrible shooting splits. He regressed every year after his sophomore season. It?s really not a good comparison. Zion has been injury prone In the past. That is really the only similarity.

Zion is 25 and going into his 7th year. How is he crashing and burning out of the league?

If anything he is trending in the right direction after losing 50lbs and playing in 60+ games this season.

[Celtics2021]

This is the issue with Zion, you may be getting an all star or even all NBA player, or you may be getting the next Ben Simmons.  Either end of this extreme is very reasonably possible.  BOS management can assess this, with consideration as to whether his weight or attitude/maturity is likely to be better or worse going forward, but this uncertainty represents risk.

There is risk with Murphy also, but less.  Murphy could continue to improve and maybe be an all star, or he could be exposed as a stat compiler on a bad team.  His floor-ceiling range is not nearly as extreme as Zion's, but there is risk and uncertainty with him also.

Then you look at Brown, all star, 2nd team all NBA, NBA finals MVP, League MVP vote-getter, his floor-ceiling range is pretty certain.  Not much risk at all.  You pretty much know what you are getting with him.

I don?t think that is a good comparison. Zion has been in the league for 6 seasons and is a career 24pts/6rebs/4ast player. He is not a good 3pt shooter, but his overall splits are solid at 60/32/70. Have not heard any coaches or players having problems with Zion. Not similar to Ben Simmons at all.

I think it relevant to point out Zion has been in the league 7 seasons, not 6 season, as he missed an entire season.  There has been a lot of talk about his commitment to the game and being available, and they started in that missed season.  He had offseason foot surgery that had a recovery timeline of him being available for opening night, but not only did he miss that, he missed every other benchmark over the subsequent 5 months.  Sure, maybe he was unlucky, but there was a lot of talk saying it was more his fault than the training staff.  That commitment to the game question is very akin to what was brought up with Simmons. 

[Goldstar88]

This is the issue with Zion, you may be getting an all star or even all NBA player, or you may be getting the next Ben Simmons.  Either end of this extreme is very reasonably possible.  BOS management can assess this, with consideration as to whether his weight or attitude/maturity is likely to be better or worse going forward, but this uncertainty represents risk.

There is risk with Murphy also, but less.  Murphy could continue to improve and maybe be an all star, or he could be exposed as a stat compiler on a bad team.  His floor-ceiling range is not nearly as extreme as Zion's, but there is risk and uncertainty with him also.

Then you look at Brown, all star, 2nd team all NBA, NBA finals MVP, League MVP vote-getter, his floor-ceiling range is pretty certain.  Not much risk at all.  You pretty much know what you are getting with him.

I don?t think that is a good comparison. Zion has been in the league for 6 seasons and is a career 24pts/6rebs/4ast player. He is not a good 3pt shooter, but his overall splits are solid at 60/32/70. Have not heard any coaches or players having problems with Zion. Not similar to Ben Simmons at all.

I think it relevant to point out Zion has been in the league 7 seasons, not 6 season, as he missed an entire season.  There has been a lot of talk about his commitment to the game and being available, and they started in that missed season.  He had offseason foot surgery that had a recovery timeline of him being available for opening night, but not only did he miss that, he missed every other benchmark over the subsequent 5 months.  Sure, maybe he was unlucky, but there was a lot of talk saying it was more his fault than the training staff.  That commitment to the game question is very akin to what was brought up with Simmons.

I don?t think anyone is debating that Zion has been injury prone, but he is taking his conditioning seriously now. I mean, he lost 50lbs. That seems like a pretty big commitment to the game. Playing in 60+ games this season is encouraging as well.

[Vermont Green]

This is the issue with Zion, you may be getting an all star or even all NBA player, or you may be getting the next Ben Simmons.  Either end of this extreme is very reasonably possible.  BOS management can assess this, with consideration as to whether his weight or attitude/maturity is likely to be better or worse going forward, but this uncertainty represents risk.

There is risk with Murphy also, but less.  Murphy could continue to improve and maybe be an all star, or he could be exposed as a stat compiler on a bad team.  His floor-ceiling range is not nearly as extreme as Zion's, but there is risk and uncertainty with him also.

Then you look at Brown, all star, 2nd team all NBA, NBA finals MVP, League MVP vote-getter, his floor-ceiling range is pretty certain.  Not much risk at all.  You pretty much know what you are getting with him.

I don?t think that is a good comparison. Zion has been in the league for 6 seasons and is a career 24pts/6rebs/4ast player. He is not a good 3pt shooter, but his overall splits are solid at 60/32/70. Have not heard any coaches or players having problems with Zion. Not similar to Ben Simmons at all.

I absolutely see the potential worst case for Zion to be Ben Simmons.  This appears less likely than a year or so ago, after he had a solid season, but it is still a very real possibility.  I am not saying that is the likely outcome, but that risk is real. 

And even for this most recent "good" season, he only played 62 games.  He has played 30 or less games in half his NBA seasons.  This guy could still totally crash and burn himself right out of the league.  He probably won't, but the likelihood is not 0%.  It is a possibility that has to be factored in to any potential trade consideration.

Ben Simmons is a career 13pts/7ast/7rebs with horrible shooting splits. He regressed every year after his sophomore season. It?s really not a good comparison. Zion has been injury prone In the past. That is really the only similarity.

Zion is 25 and going into his 7th year. How is he crashing and burning out of the league?

If anything he is trending in the right direction after losing 50lbs and playing in 60+ games this season.

Ben Simmons was a 3-time all star before a downward trajectory that ended in him being out of the league.  Zion has been on a similar trajectory, except for last season.  Last season does not completely convince me that Zion is out of the woods to crash and burn himself out of the league.

[Goldstar88]

Not a terrible trade by any means,but I hope it does not come to this losing Brown.  Zion can attack the rim.  But we have no center and lost our best defensive guard.   We would have three good forwards with Tatum,  Zion and Murphy.   Who is moving to SG?

I think we would have to ask for Missi as well to help our center rotation.  The trade still works.

They do not have a first this year.

Trey Murphy can play the 2 and the 3 just like JB. Celtics can sign another Center in Free agency like Rob or Porzingis. I?d prefer bringing KP back even though he is injury prone. I don?t think anyone is throwing a lot of money at him.

Starters: White, Murphy, Tatum, Zion, Porzingis

That would be the most talented starting 5 in the East.

[Celtics4ever]

He is already a better player than Ben Simmons on many levels.  Simmons whole problem is a lack of motor and he can't shoot.  Zion's issue was pushing himself away from the table.

[Vermont Green]

He is already a better player than Ben Simmons on many levels.  Simmons whole problem is a lack of motor and he can't shoot.  Zion's issue was pushing himself away from the table.

Look, I am not saying you are wrong, honestly, I don't know what Zion is going to be the next few seasons or longer.  But I am just acknowledging the risk that Zion could crash and burn.  Maybe you are right.  Maybe the weight issues will be under control and this will mitigate the durability issues.  Maybe at 25 he has matured, he will now be all business, a professional.  Comes to BOS, fresh start, all that.  I fully concede that this is how this could go.

But even if all that happens, what do you see as the ceiling for Zion.  I am somewhat open to the idea of bringing in Zion in a trade of Brown, if it ever gets to the point that you feel you have to trade Brown, or NOP otherwise makes it a deal you can't refuse.  I see that as unlikely.  But in such a trade, I discount Zion's value due to the risk/uncertainty.  It is hard to peg what is value is, there is just so much risk.

[Goldstar88]

He is already a better player than Ben Simmons on many levels.  Simmons whole problem is a lack of motor and he can't shoot.  Zion's issue was pushing himself away from the table.

[/b]

Look, I am not saying you are wrong, honestly, I don't know what Zion is going to be the next few seasons or longer.  But I am just acknowledging the risk that Zion could crash and burn.  Maybe you are right.  Maybe the weight issues will be under control and this will mitigate the durability issues.  Maybe at 25 he has matured, he will now be all business, a professional.  Comes to BOS, fresh start, all that.  I fully concede that this is how this could go.

But even if all that happens, what do you see as the ceiling for Zion.  I am somewhat open to the idea of bringing in Zion in a trade of Brown, if it ever gets to the point that you feel you have to trade Brown, or NOP otherwise makes it a deal you can't refuse.  I see that as unlikely.  But in such a trade, I discount Zion's value due to the risk/uncertainty.  It is hard to peg what is value is, there is just so much risk.

Exactly, C4E. In regards to Zions ceiling, he averaged 27pts/7rebs/4ast his second year in the league. He has been an allstar twice. Making any trade is a risk. Trading for Giannis is just as risky given his age and recent injuries.  He might be more of a risk than Zion at this stage.