Finals Prediction Thread

[Vermont Green]

This is a very interesting finals match up in my mind.  The best weapon against SAS is a big that can shoot 3s.  NYK have that and in general can shoot the 3.

SAS has the defense that can defend Brunson.  With Wemby looming, Brunson will not be able to penetrate and get to the hoop.

This probably comes down to how well NYK hits 3s from game to game.

[Phantom255x]

New York can push them to 6, but this to me feels like it could be similar to 2023 and 2024. Where the cream of the league is in one conference and the respective conference Finals showcases it. NY has had a great run, similar to the Mavericks in 2024 and even the 8-seed Heat in 2023, but then come Finals you'll see a difference in competition. Still, NY has experience and great 2-way wings who can make it tough (Hart, Bridges, OG, etc.) so I can see them pushing the series, but the Spurs and Wemby are more superior talent-wise and have HCA.

Unless, god forbid, Wemby goes down with injury or SAS suffers multiple injuries similar to what OKC did last round, I think Spurs in 6.

The East in general is just way worse than the West. Which on a side note, makes it even more embarassing the Celtics went down in the first round. New York went down 2-1 in the first round and went on to win 11 straight and played with their strengths + locked in.

[Birdman]

Knicks layoff will hurt them. Fox, Castle & Harper will wear down Brunson. Spurs in 6

[Who]

SAS has the defense that can defend Brunson.  With Wemby looming, Brunson will not be able to penetrate and get to the hoop.

Brunson is a better shooter than Shai. Brunson has taken 6.7 threes per game at 38.5% over the last 3 years. Shai can't do that.

Shai's inability to hit 3 pointers is what made him so vulnerable to Wemby. Shai isn't even that comfortable with long 2s. He loves to get into that 15-17 foot range. That is where he makes his money in the midrange. That is his counter for when he can't get into the paint. Wemby took away the paint. And San Antonio's team defense took away most of his 15-17 footers. It forced Shai to take other shots which he is not good at.

Brunson is a more well rounded shooter. The three point shot is a huge separation factor. He is probably a better long 2 point shooter too (around 20 feet). The guy has more range. He is less susceptible to Wemby's paint dominance on defense.

[Vermont Green]

I was just looking at the schedule.  The first game isn't until Wednesday.  SAS 4 days of rest.  I think SAS will have an advantage in game 1 due to "rust" for NYK, but only for that first game and maybe even only for the first half of that game.  After that, I see the rest as helping NYK.  The finals is a grind.  The more healed up you are the better.

NYK is shooting 40% from 3 in the playoffs.  Not sure they can keep that up vs. SAS.  But this absolutely gives NYK a punchers chance to steal a couple of games.  I have not made my prediction yet.  Still mulling it over.  But I do not see SAS as the run away favorite here.

[Vermont Green]

SAS has the defense that can defend Brunson.  With Wemby looming, Brunson will not be able to penetrate and get to the hoop.

Brunson is a better shooter than Shai. Brunson has taken 6.7 threes per game at 38.5% over the last 3 years. Shai can't do that.

Shai's inability to hit 3 pointers is what made him so vulnerable to Wemby. Shai isn't even that comfortable with long 2s. He loves to get into that 15-17 foot range. That is where he makes his money in the midrange. That is his counter for when he can't get into the paint. Wemby took away the paint. And San Antonio's team defense took away most of his 15-17 footers. It forced Shai to take other shots which he is not good at.

Brunson is a more well rounded shooter. The three point shot is a huge separation factor. He is probably a better long 2 point shooter too (around 20 feet). The guy has more range. He is less susceptible to Wemby's paint dominance on defense.

I agree, that is why I said that a key to this is if NYK continues to be as hot from 3.  In particular Towns, as it forces Wemby to defend out, but Brunson and everyone else also. For example, I expect that SAS will leave Hart open while doubling others, as most teams do.  Can Hart make them pay?  Hart was 21.7% vs ATL, 35.3% vs. PHI, and 34.6% vs CLE (3P%).  In a close series, a guy like Hart hitting or not can make a big difference.  He averages about 5 3PA per game in the playoffs. 

Also, if NYK does take it to the hoop, can they get Wemby into foul trouble.  Kornet is fine, but it is a big downgrade if Wemby has to sit due to fouls.  Same for NYK with Towns.  Towns has to play smart also.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Spurs in 5. They just have too much speed and defense.

Their defensive scheme (and the giant they have inside) has given problems to the big men for the Blazers (Clingan and Williams), Wolves (Gobert and Randle), and Thunder (Holgrem and Hartenstein) in consecutive series. I expect that to continue to with KAT and Robinson.

The Knicks offense was hot, but I think a good portion of that is good shooting luck, which should regress to the mean, and may regress lower against better defense.

The Spurs will rotate Castle, Vassell, Bryant, Fox, Harper, and Champagnie on Brunson. Brunson is a special player, but his game is not as good as SGA's. He may take/make a few more threes, but he won't finish at the rim as well and the Spurs should be well-trained against his foul-baiting.

I expect Fox and Harper to have big series. I also expect Wemby to be more successful inside against KAT, who has pretty bad habits against the pick-and-roll (I'm surprised the Cavs couldn't take more advantage of that last series).

[Neurotic Guy]

Logically Spurs should win. But Knicks have been rolling and resting. Spurs with a big emotional series v OKC may have a one game letdown. If they lose game one that might make it a series.

[Who]

The Knicks offense was hot, but I think a good portion of that is good shooting luck, which should regress to the mean, and may regress lower against better defense.

Agreed. I don't trust the Knicks offense yet either. I am hoping they can continue this hot streak though. I want them to win. But surely it has to stop at some point.

he Spurs will rotate Castle, Vassell, Bryant, Fox, Harper, and Champagnie on Brunson. Brunson is a special player, but his game is not as good as SGA's. He may take/make a few more threes, but he won't finish at the rim as well and the Spurs should be well-trained against his foul-baiting.

I remember the announcers saying the Spurs were one of the best teams in the league at avoiding fouls this year. Although most of that might just be having Wemby standing behind you + Wemby himself doesn't foul much.

Update: Yeah, the announcers were right on. Spurs ranked 1st in the league for fewest FTAs per FGAs conceded.

[Who]

I wonder if San Antonio will even have Wemby defend KAT in this series. The Spurs like to keep Wemby as the low man and usually switch him onto corner shooters if the opposition big man is spending too much time away from the paint.

That keeps Wemby in good position to help down. He is so tall and fast that he is one step away from the paint when defending the corner shooter + can easily hop down to bother rim attempts from players driving from the top of the key. He can also recover well to the shooter in the corner. Freak.

I wonder who they would have to defend KAT. If they had a bigger PF it would work easily but they don't. Champagnie (SF/SG) and Castle are their two biggest starters outside of Wemby. Harrison Barnes or J Carter are their biggest bench forwards. Not big enough either. I wonder if H Barnes will be deemed their best option and get more playing time in this series. Assuming H Barnes can make enough 3s to stay on the floor. I don't think the rookie Carter will do well on KAT. Not enough experience or muscle yet to defend a skilled center like KAT full time yet. Maybe in the future.

[Vermont Green]

I wonder if San Antonio will even have Wemby defend KAT in this series. The Spurs like to keep Wemby as the low man and usually switch him onto corner shooters if the opposition big man is spending too much time away from the paint.

That keeps Wemby in good position to help down. He is so tall and fast that he is one step away from the paint when defending the corner shooter + can easily hop down to bother rim attempts from players driving from the top of the key. He can also recover well to the shooter in the corner. Freak.

I wonder who they would have to defend KAT. If they had a bigger PF it would work easily but they don't. Champagnie (SF/SG) and Castle are their two biggest starters outside of Wemby. Harrison Barnes or J Carter are their biggest bench forwards. Not big enough either. I wonder if H Barnes will be deemed their best option and get more playing time in this series. Assuming H Barnes can make enough 3s to stay on the floor. I don't think the rookie Carter will do well on KAT. Not enough experience or muscle yet to defend a skilled center like KAT full time yet. Maybe in the future.

I think they go to this if Towns starts to hit some 3s.  They will have Wemby "cover" Hart (meaning leave him open and see if he can it his 3s).  Then if NYK starts posting up Towns, it is kind of taking them out of their game and clogging things up even more.  Advantage SAS.  That is why I say, it will come down to NYK making enough 3s, Towns and Hart in particular.