Brown vs White: On/Off and Assessing a Player's Value?

[jambr380]

Both players played a similar amount at around 34mpg. Jaylen was often lauded for his increased production and rewarded with a top 6 MVP finish. I've also seen it presented as Jaylen leading a ragtag band of try-hards. White on the other hand has taken some criticism for his sharp drop off in shooting, leaving some to question his future with the team.

Despite the optics, Brown finished the season at an underwhelming -5.5ppg on/off and in the 13th percentile. That means the team performed 5.5ppg worse with him on the court than when he was sitting. While White was at +9.4ppg on/off and in the 96th percentile in the whole league. Kenny Atkinson turned heads when he said Derrick White was a top 5 player in the league. His defense and how the team performs with him on the court are no doubt big reasons why he would make such a claim.

Digging deeper, the offense performed similarly with Jaylen on the floor, but the defense suffered quite a bit. With White, while the offense performed slightly better, the defense was otherworldly.

I am not here to say that Derrick White is clearly a better player than Brown. We all know that a lot of what Brown brings to the table - tough shot making and taking on a tough defensive assignment - can be really beneficial in the playoffs and can't always be measured with analytics. But throughout their careers, White has consistently performed very well in this statistic, while Brown has not. So this is not one off year, no Tatum thing.

So what do you think - does on/off hold any level of value to you? Do you think Brown's perceived increased value around the league will entice Brad to move him? Or do you think White still might be the one to be traded since he is another year older and his bigger contract could create more depth pieces on the team?

https://databallr.com/stats/player/jaylen-brown/1627759
https://databallr.com/stats/player/derrick-white/1628401

[Who]

So what do you think - does on/off hold any level of value to you?

It holds a lot of value in my eyes but like all other hoops statistics none of them are perfect.

It is one of the better ones particularly over multiple seasons. Sometimes they can be effected positively or negatively by the lack of a quality backup (boosting your numbers) or having an excellent backup in your position (reducing your numbers). Sometimes it can be hurt (or helped) by playing in 2nd units. By playing more against bench players. Or the opposite, only playing with fellow starters / stronger units.

So not perfect .... but very good.

A very good statistic.

[Who]

I don't understand why Jaylen's on/off numbers are so bad.

I can see why his offensive impact would be lower than people due to average scoring efficiency + middling passing ability + middling spacing. Team offense skills tend to be undervalued (in impact) relative to individual offense skills (same with defense actually).

I can see why his defensive impact is lower than one would expect because his team D is not as strong his man D. Man D tends to get a lot more attention.

Still, even though I can see why his impact numbers would be lower than you might expect at first sight ... I still do not understand why they are as bad as they are. That confuses me. I don't understand it.

I tend not to use these numbers much for Jaylen because I don't think they tell the true story of his talent & impact.

[jambr380]

I don't understand why Jaylen's on/off numbers are so bad.

I can see why his offensive impact would be lower than people due to average scoring efficiency + middling passing ability + middling spacing.

I can see why his defensive impact is lower than one would expect because his team D is not as strong his man D. Man D tends to get a lot more attention.

Still, even though I can see why his impact numbers would be lower than you might expect at first sight ... I still do not understand why they are as bad as they are. That confuses me. I don't understand it.

I tend not to use these numbers much for Jaylen because I don't think they tell the true story of his talent & impact.

I think most of Celtics nation has basically chosen not to use these numbers for Jaylen, especially since he elevated his play so much in the 2024 playoffs. The Jaylen that can stop a player like Luka, hit buzzer beater 3s, and get tough baskets against set defenses in the highest pressure settings doesn't need analytics to analyze his play. It's been proven and it resulted in this team winning a championship.

I guess what needs to be decided moving forward is if we still think Jaylen is that guy and can he elevate his play to the highest level or will he flame out like he did in 2023, 2025, and 2026? It's not an indictment on Jaylen - he's not even considered the best player on the team - but when the best player has gone down, he has unfortunately wilted in high leverage situations. Situations we use to not bring up stats like on/off.

Where some people see tough shot making, others see unneccessarily tough shots. Is White's fast decision making, connectivity, and ability to make his teammates better more valuable? Where some people see Jaylen's tough 1-on-1 defense, others see his lack of team defense. Sure, White has a lot of wow plays of his own with his rim protection, but team defense is something that White excels in.

That could help explain why Jaylen might score well in categories that the average viewer sees, but White actually does better in all of the 'little things'. And those little things might possibly be more helpful in actually winning basketball games.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

In many ways, Brown is very reminiscent of DeRozan, who was plagued by the same issues. On the court, he was a very good offensive player who was not bad at defense. On paper, the team just wasn't as good as the eye test indicated.

But Brown has two things DeRozan didn't. First, he's a good three point shooter that can actually space the floor for teammates. Second, he has the ability to ramp up his defense against opposing superstars to an almost all-defensive level. His defense on Luka was a big reason he won the finals MVP a few years ago. Also, he's a better one-on-one scorer that DeRozan was at his peak.

An additional comment on stats: they don't tell the whole story. The advanced stats gurus want us to believe that their stats can encapsulate the whole game in a few numbers, but they can't. They are often incomplete in different ways. Some guys will always look better (PER for example always favors bigs), and some guys will always look worse. Each stat is a helpful piece of the puzzle, but so is the eye test on the court.

[jambr380]

In many ways, Brown is very reminiscent of DeRozan, who was plagued by the same issues. On the court, he was a very good offensive player who was not bad at defense. On paper, the team just wasn't as good as the eye test indicated.

But Brown has two things DeRozan didn't. First, he's a good three point shooter that can actually space the floor for teammates. Second, he has the ability to ramp up his defense against opposing superstars to an almost all-defensive level. His defense on Luka was a big reason he won the finals MVP a few years ago. Also, he's a better one-on-one scorer that DeRozan was at his peak.

An additional comment on stats: they don't tell the whole story. The advanced stats gurus want us to believe that their stats can encapsulate the whole game in a few numbers, but they can't. They are often incomplete in different ways. Some guys will always look better (PER for example always favors bigs), and some guys will always look worse. Each stat is a helpful piece of the puzzle, but so is the eye test on the court.

The DeRozan comp is a little [dang]ing, but I understand what you mean. Perhaps that argument can better be made for the regular season. As soon as Toronto traded him out for a clear upgrade, they won a championship. Jaylen's 2024 will make him a Celtics legend forever.

For the bolded, I agree with this, too. And not all advanced numbers are against Jaylen. I just brought up one that was easily understood (btw, I don't fully understand a lot of them, so this is not mean to be condescending - I'd like to know more honestly). Jaylen was also a +321 on the season, so he was clearly a plus for the team.

[Moranis]

Brown is not a good 3 point shooter. His 3P+ for his career is 99. 100 is basically league average.  The last 4 years he is 93, 97, 90, 96 so all below his average as he has taken more shots and been more a focus.  His career eFG+ is right at 100 as his is his TS+, and his FT+ is 95.  So he is a below average shooter that is a poor passer and a high volume turnover machine.  It isn't hard to see with objective numbers why the team plays better without Brown on the floor. Earlier on his career when he was getting 3rd or 4th option type shots his league adjusted shooting numbers were much better because he was taking much better shots with less defensive pressure.  Tatum has similar shooting numbers but he is a much better passer and doesn't turn it over nearly as much. 

[Vermont Green]

I don't understand why Jaylen's on/off numbers are so bad.

I can see why his offensive impact would be lower than people due to average scoring efficiency + middling passing ability + middling spacing. Team offense skills tend to be undervalued (in impact) relative to individual offense skills (same with defense actually).

I can see why his defensive impact is lower than one would expect because his team D is not as strong his man D. Man D tends to get a lot more attention.

Still, even though I can see why his impact numbers would be lower than you might expect at first sight ... I still do not understand why they are as bad as they are. That confuses me. I don't understand it.

I tend not to use these numbers much for Jaylen because I don't think they tell the true story of his talent & impact.

This is where I am at.  These stats do not seem to line up with what I see on the court.  It is interesting that in White and Brown, you are comparing probably the one for whom these stats are most favorable (White) to the one whom these stats are the least favorable (Brown). 

I did dig into this a while back, both Tatum and Brown, and one or the other of these guys tends to be the one that is left on the court to prop up the second units.  White tends to get more of his minutes with the core starters.  This did correlate to some degree but by no means did it entirely explain the unexpected advanced stats performance.

As to how important this is, I don't hold it up as some kind of holy grail of stats but you can't disregard it either.  Brown has some flaws in his game and these flaws apparently get amplified by these advanced stats.  I will say that Brown really upped his mid range game this past season.  I see that as adding an important dimension to his game.  As the #1, he got more opportunity to use this and he showed it is a real weapon.  Made him a better player.

[Atzar]

I completely ignore +/- and on/off.  They're dubiously helpful in large samples, completely useless in small ones, and every time I see somebody cite a player's -8 at halftime as proof that they're not playing well, another of my hairs turn gray. 

As for PER and LEBRON+ and whatever else, they can be valuable.  Some more than others.  But it's worth keeping in mind that most of this stuff is created to generate clicks and sell subscriptions.  Their job isn't to process the game of basketball down into a single number; merely to convince fans that they're doing it so those fans then buy what they're selling.  So whenever I hear about a new metric that I'm supposed to sign up for to access, I'm always very skeptical.

[jambr380]

I completely ignore +/- and on/off.  They're dubiously helpful in large samples, completely useless in small ones, and every time I see somebody cite a player's -8 at halftime as proof that they're not playing well, another of my hairs turn gray. 

As for PER and LEBRON+ and whatever else, they can be valuable.  Some more than others.  But it's worth keeping in mind that most of this stuff is created to generate clicks and sell subscriptions.  Their job isn't to process the game of basketball down into a single number; merely to convince fans that they're doing it so those fans then buy what they're selling.  So whenever I hear about a new metric that I'm supposed to sign up for to access, I'm always very skeptical.

I agree that game to game sample sizes are useless. Any one random player can go off and carry other players who happen to be sharing the floor. In on/off, you can have the infamous Tatum and the bench players line-up versus the other starters all playing together.

But we basically have a career long sample size of on/off with both Brown and White showing results that aren't completely far off from what we saw this season. I don't know, I understand not being fully onboard with advanced stats, but I don't think Jaylen was only playing with bad players this year, and White was only playing with good players.

We all just have to acknowledge that it's weird, and say that's the way it is.

[jambr380]

Brown is not a good 3 point shooter. His 3P+ for his career is 99. 100 is basically league average.  The last 4 years he is 93, 97, 90, 96 so all below his average as he has taken more shots and been more a focus.  His career eFG+ is right at 100 as his is his TS+, and his FT+ is 95.  So he is a below average shooter that is a poor passer and a high volume turnover machine.  It isn't hard to see with objective numbers why the team plays better without Brown on the floor. Earlier on his career when he was getting 3rd or 4th option type shots his league adjusted shooting numbers were much better because he was taking much better shots with less defensive pressure.  Tatum has similar shooting numbers but he is a much better passer and doesn't turn it over nearly as much.

This may sound extreme, but I think there is a very good chance Tatum wins MVP this year if the roles were reversed - Brown injured most of the year, and Tatum carrying the team. Tatum has always scored more than Brown, and always had more rebounds and assists. So he likely would have been well into the 30s in ppg.

The team impressed this year with 56 wins, but I would not be surprised if we pushed that up to 60.  Even Brad acknowledged this year's record was a mirage because of all the tanking teams. Tatum has always been a better defender and made his teammates better on the offensive end, so a couple more wins is not out of the question.

And Tatum already had the pedigree and reputation. Brown is only now making his 2nd All-NBA team in 10 seasons. Tatum would have been coming off of 4 straight 1st Team All-NBA team selections and there would have been a lot of hype behind him leading the Celtics to such a great record. We see now that they could get a lot of wins with a lesser player in Brown, but Tatum doing it would have been considered more impressive and validated what most people always thought of him.