He's definitely going to get lots of offers higher than the minimum.
Furthermore, I think his best role is as a roamer PF playing next to a stronger C who can space the floor. In other words, Al Horford. The way our team is built now, he can't play next to Queta due to spacing issues and playing with Garza or Tatum would be a very small frontcourt (remember, Rob is only 6'9'').
Of course, we can't necessarily solve all the roster issues in one offseason, so I'm not saying they shouldn't kick the tires with his agent. It's just if you're paying him 10-14m, could those resources be better allocated elsewhere? What about Queta when he needs to be re-signed? He should be making the backup big dollars, not Rob.
But, those are just the hard decisions you need to make under the new CBA when you've got older stars already making 35% of the cap.
Rob is 6?9 250lbs. He is bigger than Horford and a
a much better athlete. Also has a 7?6 wingspan which is longer than Al?s. I don?t think anyone is paying him $10-14M since his health is always going to be a question mark .
I definitely think he'll make at least 10m/year because the FA class is pretty lackluster and he's coming off a year where he played 59 games and the playoffs. Either it will be more money for less years to mitigate the injury risk, or a little less for longer if Rob prefers that. Of course if he were available for the minimum, 30 teams including the C's would jump on that and "fit" becomes a moot point.
My analysis of him not being ideal was based on him costing most of what we're going to have free to spend under the tax and assuming we can't afford more than three bigs on the roster, the other two being Queta and Garza since they're still on cheapo deals next year. Of course, that doesn't mean they couldn't just sign Rob and eventually make more moves or trade him down the line, but I thought the discussion this offseason was primarily about how do we get a playoff-level big man with the meager resources on hand.
In my opinion, Horford was always better at banging down low compared to Rob, regardless of what their height/weight info says. Also, I thought keeping him out of the traditional big man spot was at least partially to prevent wear and tear on his fragile body.
How is it a weak FA class for Centers?
Duren
Hartenstein
Ayton
Kessler
Vucevic
Sharpe
Mitch Robinson
Lopez
Horford
Mark Williams
Drummond
Collins
Richards
Bryant
Duren - Either re-signs with Pistons or is sign-and-traded if a team like the Bulls makes a crazy offer.
Hartenstein - The only solid playoff big who might be available but it likely will require a trade. I think OKC will cut salary elsewhere (Caruso, Dort?) since they don't really have a replacement for Hartenstein.
Ayton - Failed his "prove yourself" year in Los Angeles. Untrustworthy.
Kessler - Either re-signing with Utah or will be sign and traded.
Vucevic - Ha!
Sharpe - Should get a modest deal, maybe 6-8m/year to be a backup C. I assume the Nets keep him since their young players are all guards/forwards and not bigs, but maybe he thinks he can be a starter somewhere else?
Mitch Robinson - Injury risk, some rumors the Kings want him.
Lopez - DNP-Old
Horford - I wouldn't be surprised if he takes his player option because at this point he shouldn't want to be moving his family around year after year.
Mark Williams - He's restricted and got hurt last year. I think he's intriguing and will be a fallback option for the Bulls.
Drummond - He can't really move and he's getting older. I think he could sign for another short-term deal for around 5-6m.
Collins - Is this John Collins? I don't consider him a traditional center.
Richards - IMO he stinks.
Bryant - He stinks.
The thing is, restricted free agents usually re-sign with their own teams so I don't really consider those guys as being truly "available." And for most of the other names, maybe you have a higher opinion of them than I do. Anyway, I stand by my prediction but even if he can't get that double-digit figure, he's still not going to be a minimum guy. That would be insane.