2026-27 Celtics Off Season Discussion

[jambr380]

Murphy is the key to the trade.  He is a much better shooter than Brown.  He has a much better assist to turnover ratio.  He generates steals at an elite level.  Murphy is used to playing next to ball dominant players and succeeding.  He will likely play very well off of Tatum.  There is a chance that he alone will give Boston a higher ceiling.

I don't agree with this.  Imagine that at the start of 2025-26, BOS traded Brown for Murphy.  How many wins do you think BOS would have gotten with Murphy over Brown.  I get your point is that with Tatum, the team would be better with Tatum+Murphy vs. Tatum+Brown because they are more complementary.  Tatum+Brown have already won a title together.

I think what is more likely is that Murphy on a title contending team would see his role reduced and his overall numbers reduce, not increase.  He appears to be a nice player.  He compiled nice stats on a bad team.  He may make a leap and become a player that gets MVP votes, like Brown, but I see that as highly unlikely.  He is not nearly as good as Brown today and I don't see him ever being as good.  A nice, upper-middle class player who could be a nice piece on BOS.  I see his ceiling as Anunoby or Bridges on NYK, something like that.  I think you are way over projecting his ceiling, at least his immediate ceiling.

The very next sentence which you cut out starts out by saying Boston would have a lower floor.  Murphy without Tatum would make the team worse than Brown without Tatum because Murphy is nit as good as Brown.  But this should be Tatum's team. He is by far the best player on it.  The team should be set up to cater to Tatum. It should be about maximizing his strengths. 

Put it this way, if you were designing a wing player that isn't as good as Tatum to compliment him, what skills would you want that player to have?

Ofeensively, I'd personally want an excellent to elite shooter that makes good decisions with the ball, with solid passing skills that won't turn it over much.  Defensively, I'd want a plus rebounder that can defend multiple positions at at least above average ability.  I think that is the type of player that would play well off of Tatum.  Brown hits the defensive stuff, but I don't think he hits the offensive items.  That is what I mean when I say they are not a good fit.  I don't think either one compliments the other on offense.  They are basically the same type of player.  Great when they are the only one in the floor, but not maximizing each other when they play together.

I get your point, at least I think I do, but you are comparing a player who is in the MVP conversation (and did win a title with Tatum) with a player that has never even been an all star or on a team that has won anything.  Brown scores more, rebounds more, assists more, but Brown turns it over more (2.3 vs. 1.1 for career). 3 point shooting, Brown is 35.8% career, Murphy is 38.2%.  That is about 1 more make every 5 games if my math is right (about 1 more make every 40 3PA or so).  I am not real sure how good a defender that Murphy is but I don't think he is better than Brown.

Murphy also takes easier shots.  The majority of his 3s are catch-and-shoot.  He is good at them, but it means he needs someone else to create for him.  When he takes pull-up 3s his percentage dropped to 30.4% last season, worse than Jaylen.  He turns the ball over less but he is also asked to create off the dribble less.  His defense is good.  If you wanted to tell me it was better than Jaylen I would raise an eyebrow, but he is long and versatile, and will guard every position like Jaylen does.  I would agree to call it a near wash.  But I liken Murphy to a Mikal Bridges.  On a bad team he can get you 20 to 25 a night, but on a contender he is probably a 3rd or 4th option on offense, while being a valuable defender.  Next to the Js, he could be a perfect fit.  As a replacement for one of them, he is unlikely to live up to the task.

I understand this stance, but the question is, what could you do with the extra $30M you are saving on the Jaylen contract (and that number increases in subsequent years). I'm not saying there are any slam dunk options out there, but when you take age and contract into account, you can get quite creative.

I like Jaylen the player, I just don't like his contract. I also think he's become a bit overrated. Probably in that 15-20 range imo, not a top 6 player. Unlike others, I think there is more than a 50% chance he will be traded. If not this year, then definitely next year.

Edit: I realize right now that extra money would be allocated to somebody like Murray because of trade rules. I was more saying, who could you move that contract to in order to bring back somebody more desirable. I don't think Murray is anybody's first choice and I wouldn't be behind that trade without significant draft capital coming back to us.

[snively]

Murphy took 15.9 FGA a game last year scoring 21.5 ppg. He led the Pelicans by 2.5 attempts a game.  So he was the #1 option with a TS% of 61.3.  That is excellent.  He is not a great ball handler, but he doesn't need to be with Tatum next to him.  That is sort of the point. Brown and Tatum often get in each other's way because they have the same skill set.  Murphy is much better playing off the ball.  He won't get in Tatum's way and in fact would help Tatum by being where Tatum needs him and then being able to capitalize on it.

I think the bigger problem with the Jays partnership is that neither are quite good enough as ballhandlers to be the primary point of attack against a good set defense. Tatum is better at it, but giving him a #2 that's worse at it than JB just gives the team fewer options.

A better fitting partner would be someone like Jalen Williams who won't consume as many scoring possessions as JB but will be better creating off the dribble and sharing the ball while still offering supplementary scoring.

[Celtics2021]

Murphy is the key to the trade.  He is a much better shooter than Brown.  He has a much better assist to turnover ratio.  He generates steals at an elite level.  Murphy is used to playing next to ball dominant players and succeeding.  He will likely play very well off of Tatum.  There is a chance that he alone will give Boston a higher ceiling.

I don't agree with this.  Imagine that at the start of 2025-26, BOS traded Brown for Murphy.  How many wins do you think BOS would have gotten with Murphy over Brown.  I get your point is that with Tatum, the team would be better with Tatum+Murphy vs. Tatum+Brown because they are more complementary.  Tatum+Brown have already won a title together.

I think what is more likely is that Murphy on a title contending team would see his role reduced and his overall numbers reduce, not increase.  He appears to be a nice player.  He compiled nice stats on a bad team.  He may make a leap and become a player that gets MVP votes, like Brown, but I see that as highly unlikely.  He is not nearly as good as Brown today and I don't see him ever being as good.  A nice, upper-middle class player who could be a nice piece on BOS.  I see his ceiling as Anunoby or Bridges on NYK, something like that.  I think you are way over projecting his ceiling, at least his immediate ceiling.

The very next sentence which you cut out starts out by saying Boston would have a lower floor.  Murphy without Tatum would make the team worse than Brown without Tatum because Murphy is nit as good as Brown.  But this should be Tatum's team. He is by far the best player on it.  The team should be set up to cater to Tatum. It should be about maximizing his strengths. 

Put it this way, if you were designing a wing player that isn't as good as Tatum to compliment him, what skills would you want that player to have?

Ofeensively, I'd personally want an excellent to elite shooter that makes good decisions with the ball, with solid passing skills that won't turn it over much.  Defensively, I'd want a plus rebounder that can defend multiple positions at at least above average ability.  I think that is the type of player that would play well off of Tatum.  Brown hits the defensive stuff, but I don't think he hits the offensive items.  That is what I mean when I say they are not a good fit.  I don't think either one compliments the other on offense.  They are basically the same type of player.  Great when they are the only one in the floor, but not maximizing each other when they play together.

I get your point, at least I think I do, but you are comparing a player who is in the MVP conversation (and did win a title with Tatum) with a player that has never even been an all star or on a team that has won anything.  Brown scores more, rebounds more, assists more, but Brown turns it over more (2.3 vs. 1.1 for career). 3 point shooting, Brown is 35.8% career, Murphy is 38.2%.  That is about 1 more make every 5 games if my math is right (about 1 more make every 40 3PA or so).  I am not real sure how good a defender that Murphy is but I don't think he is better than Brown.

Murphy also takes easier shots.  The majority of his 3s are catch-and-shoot.  He is good at them, but it means he needs someone else to create for him.  When he takes pull-up 3s his percentage dropped to 30.4% last season, worse than Jaylen.  He turns the ball over less but he is also asked to create off the dribble less.  His defense is good.  If you wanted to tell me it was better than Jaylen I would raise an eyebrow, but he is long and versatile, and will guard every position like Jaylen does.  I would agree to call it a near wash.  But I liken Murphy to a Mikal Bridges.  On a bad team he can get you 20 to 25 a night, but on a contender he is probably a 3rd or 4th option on offense, while being a valuable defender.  Next to the Js, he could be a perfect fit.  As a replacement for one of them, he is unlikely to live up to the task.

I understand this stance, but the question is, what could you do with the extra $30M you are saving on the Jaylen contract (and that number increases in subsequent years). I'm not saying there are any slam dunk options out there, but when you take age and contract into account, you can get quite creative.

I like Jaylen the player, I just don't like his contract. I also think he's become a bit overrated. Probably in that 15-20 range imo, not a top 6 player. Unlike others, I think there is more than a 50% chance he will be traded. If not this year, then definitely next year.

Edit: I realize right now that extra money would be allocated to somebody like Murray because of trade rules. I was more saying, who could you move that contract to in order to bring back somebody more desirable. I don't think Murray is anybody's first choice and I wouldn't be behind that trade without significant draft capital coming back to us.

But it is not that simple.  The Pelicans cannot simply trade Murphy for Jaylen.  They would have to trade other salary, and so you do not just get to clear $30 million from the books and go sign a free agent, or even get a trade exception.  And JB?s contract is not awesome, as it is a max, but it is also not awful.  Having a contract tied with a few players for the 7-9 range when you are an All-NBA player in your prime is fair value.  Not a steal, but one that no NBA team would regret given his age and ability. 

Also, let?s look at the players who make roughly $30 million, in the weird world where you got just teleport one onto the Celtics.  It is definitely a mixed bag.  Immanuel Quickly at $32.5 million, Jalen Suggs at $32.4 million, Andre Wiggins at $30.2 million, RJ Barrett at $29.6 million, Draymond Green at $27.7 million, and Devin Vassell at $27.5 million, when paired with Murphy, would all make me prefer JB.  Aaron Gordon at $32 million, Isaiah Hartenstein at $28.5 million, and Jarrett Allen at $28 million, I could all be talked into, but they all have their warts (primarily availability: Allen led the three of them in games played with only 56).  Jalen Johnson at $30 million?  Sign me up.

Anyway, the point is that even having an extra $30 million to spend might not get you much.  You probably would not be adding Jalen Johnson, and Dejounte Murray (who?s $32.8 million was just above this list) is relatively standard faire for that salary range.