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Author Topic: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?  (Read 1400 times)

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Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« on: May 09, 2026, 09:51:24 PM »

Offline rondohondo

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Second-round picks are invaluable for teams like the Celtics that are over the luxury tax. While first-round picks have a predetermined salary slot over four seasons, second-rounders can be signed to similar-length deals starting at minimum salaries that don't need to be guaranteed for all of the years.

That's a big reason why Stevens has loaded up on second-round draft picks this summer, and he may not be done just yet. There are still moves to be made as Boston looks to shed more salary, which it must do to retain pending free agents Al Horford and Luke Kornet.

This was an article from last off-season ,but it got me thinking . Are early 2nd rd picks more valuable late 1st round pick? Do they hold more trade value?
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2026, 09:57:35 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Quote from: rondohondo on May 09, 2026, 09:51:24 PM
Quote
Second-round picks are invaluable for teams like the Celtics that are over the luxury tax. While first-round picks have a predetermined salary slot over four seasons, second-rounders can be signed to similar-length deals starting at minimum salaries that don't need to be guaranteed for all of the years.

That's a big reason why Stevens has loaded up on second-round draft picks this summer, and he may not be done just yet. There are still moves to be made as Boston looks to shed more salary, which it must do to retain pending free agents Al Horford and Luke Kornet.

This was an article from last off-season ,but it got me thinking . Are early 2nd rd picks more valuable late 1st round pick? Do they hold more trade value?
second round picks aren't guaranteed contracts for set amounts (within a range) and can be negotiated for different, more team-friendly terms
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #2 on: Today at 12:06:30 PM »

Offline aefgogreen

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Quote from: rondohondo on May 09, 2026, 09:51:24 PM
Quote
Second-round picks are invaluable for teams like the Celtics that are over the luxury tax. While first-round picks have a predetermined salary slot over four seasons, second-rounders can be signed to similar-length deals starting at minimum salaries that don't need to be guaranteed for all of the years.

That's a big reason why Stevens has loaded up on second-round draft picks this summer, and he may not be done just yet. There are still moves to be made as Boston looks to shed more salary, which it must do to retain pending free agents Al Horford and Luke Kornet.

This was an article from last off-season ,but it got me thinking . Are early 2nd rd picks more valuable late 1st round pick? Do they hold more trade value?
If you asked Brad Stevens, he would say so. He traded back a few years ago to get Walsh.  The idea being the quality of player is similar, the contract is cheaper.
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #3 on: Today at 12:20:23 PM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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This fits well into the the draft tier system idea.

If players 25-40 are all in the same tier, with similar potential to become NBA players, then it makes sense to give yourself flexibility and draft toward the end of that list.
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #4 on: Today at 12:29:44 PM »

Online jambr380

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To an extent, but if the player you want goes in the late 1st round and you are sitting on an early 2nd rounder, then it suddenly becomes a lot less valuable to you.

Also, it's funny that the article said we loaded up on 2nds when we definitely do not have a surplus anymore. I wouldn't be surprised to see Brad trade back a few times in order to pick up future 2nds. We would still have 40 to use for us
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #5 on: Today at 12:34:51 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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The value is the added flexibility.  Second rounders can be signed to 2-way deals, or signed to non-guaranteed deals, both of which add flexibility over having to give a first rounder a guaranteed deal.  The only other option with a first rounder is if they are willing to "stash" in Europe and then you retain their rights.
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #6 on: Today at 12:50:16 PM »

Online jambr380

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Quote from: Vermont Green on Today at 12:34:51 PM
The value is the added flexibility.  Second rounders can be signed to 2-way deals, or signed to non-guaranteed deals, both of which add flexibility over having to give a first rounder a guaranteed deal.  The only other option with a first rounder is if they are willing to "stash" in Europe and then you retain their rights.

This is definitely true, but it's also true that agents will outright tell you not to draft their clients - especially in the 30s - if you don't intend on signing them to a guaranteed deal. I read an article about picking in the 2nd round last year and it isn't just take the player you want. There's a lot more that goes into it.
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #7 on: Today at 12:59:41 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Quote from: jambr380 on Today at 12:50:16 PM
Quote from: Vermont Green on Today at 12:34:51 PM
The value is the added flexibility.  Second rounders can be signed to 2-way deals, or signed to non-guaranteed deals, both of which add flexibility over having to give a first rounder a guaranteed deal.  The only other option with a first rounder is if they are willing to "stash" in Europe and then you retain their rights.

This is definitely true, but it's also true that agents will outright tell you not to draft their clients - especially in the 30s - if you don't intend on signing them to a guaranteed deal. I read an article about picking in the 2nd round last year and it isn't just take the player you want. There's a lot more that goes into it.

I don't doubt that, all part of the game that is played I guess.  It is a risk to only offer a 2nd rounder a 2-way deal.  I believe the player can reject this and then become a FA or re-enter the draft (not sure exactly of the details).  But BOS has had pretty good luck with offering 2-way deals to mid to late second rounders.
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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #8 on: Today at 04:14:52 PM »

Online obnoxiousmime

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For reasons a lot of responders have mentioned, the question of value is a lot more complicated than how the OP put it.

However, I will add that the NIL is hollowing out the talent pool in the late 1st and second round. There may not really be significant differences in talent in that range of the draft. It used to be the case that some more talented high school players who didn't have a great freshman year in college might jump to the draft just to start the clock. That was a way for teams to get better talent later in the draft, if they had a good relationship with the agent and the player liked the situation.

It's not just domestic talent but international as well. You see foreign guys choosing to play college ball as a precursor to the NBA, whereas in the past they'd be in a Euro league. Teams that were good at scouting international players could sometimes get a better talent later in the draft than expected.

Now, eventually all these players will have to come out, since you can't play college ball forever. In a few years, things should normalize. The better players might still come out early and lose money in the short term, just to start the FA clock. However, for the time being it may be that players' values will more closely coincide with where they are drafted and there won't be as many unexpected gems in the late first/second round. The new rules that allow a player to declare and then talk to teams before deciding whether to return to college also might discourage talented but raw prospects to come out too early.




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Re: Are early 2nd rd picks considered more valuable than late 1st?
« Reply #9 on: Today at 04:35:12 PM »

Online jambr380

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Quote from: Vermont Green on Today at 12:59:41 PM
Quote from: jambr380 on Today at 12:50:16 PM
Quote from: Vermont Green on Today at 12:34:51 PM
The value is the added flexibility.  Second rounders can be signed to 2-way deals, or signed to non-guaranteed deals, both of which add flexibility over having to give a first rounder a guaranteed deal.  The only other option with a first rounder is if they are willing to "stash" in Europe and then you retain their rights.

This is definitely true, but it's also true that agents will outright tell you not to draft their clients - especially in the 30s - if you don't intend on signing them to a guaranteed deal. I read an article about picking in the 2nd round last year and it isn't just take the player you want. There's a lot more that goes into it.

I don't doubt that, all part of the game that is played I guess.  It is a risk to only offer a 2nd rounder a 2-way deal.  I believe the player can reject this and then become a FA or re-enter the draft (not sure exactly of the details).  But BOS has had pretty good luck with offering 2-way deals to mid to late second rounders.

I think it's a safer bet for mid-2nd rounders, but from what I read, many late 2nd rounders would rather not get drafted at all so that they can choose the team they think suits them best and one that may have already made a promise to sign them to a 2-way.
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