2026 Celtics Playoff Discussion

[Vermont Green]

The other threads relate to the regular season.  These can be merged but I wanted to start a playoff discussion.  I think it is safe to assume that BOS will end up with the #2 seed and play whoever emerges from the play-in round as the #7 seed.

What I was curious about was how the rotation would work out for the playoffs.  There has not been a stretch where both Tatum and Vucevic have been available so there is some question (but probably not a whole lot of question). 

Jaylen Brown          36 min
Jayson Tatum         36 min
Derrick White         36 min
Payton Pritchard     32 min
Neemias Queta       24 min
Sam Hauser           28 min
Nikola Vučević        24 min

Total                     216 min

The above is pretty much in line with the regular season minutes for the top 7 players.  Tatum has actually been averaging more like 32 min.  There are 240 minutes needed so this means in the range of 24 more minutes from some combination of Scheierman, Walsh, Hugo, and maybe Garza.

On the season, Queta has never played with Garza or Vucevic, so I am not sure that their minutes will increase in the playoffs (zero minutes for Garza + Vucevic also).  Scheierman is not likely to play 24 minutes in the playoffs, I don't think, but that is about what he has been playing since Tatum came back.  24 minutes is a lot of minutes to have Scheierman or Walsh or Hugo on the court.

[smicker16]

TP for starting this up as I have been thinking about this too. However I feel differently than you. I am not worried about those minutes from Baylor Hugo or Walsh. But I do think we see Hauser down to about 22 or so. Joe has not always trusted him in the playoffs and I think he can be picked on at times in a 7 game series. Last year he played around 14 a game in the playoffs and the year they won it all too. That feels like a big jump for him. I see him at 22 and those six minutes being picked up by Brown Tatum White and the Hugo Walsh and Baylor crew. But I do think this is going to be very interesting to see how the rotation shakes out come playoff time.

[Celtics2021]

The Celtics will go 8-9 deep in the first two rounds.  Scheierman is absolutely in the rotation.  Walsh or Gonzalez will probably get a stint in the first half of games.  I also do not think it will a be 50-50 between Queta and the backup center.  I further do not think it is a given that backup will be Vooch.  Garza has played well and is more acclimated.  Vooch has two weeks to get used to his teammates, and maybe the first round depending how tough that series is, but he was a liability yesterday on both ends, and he was inconsistent prior to the injury.  That can only continue for so long.

[Vermont Green]

The Celtics will go 8-9 deep in the first two rounds.  Scheierman is absolutely in the rotation.  Walsh or Gonzalez will probably get a stint in the first half of games.  I also do not think it will a be 50-50 between Queta and the backup center.  I further do not think it is a given that backup will be Vooch.  Garza has played well and is more acclimated.  Vooch has two weeks to get used to his teammates, and maybe the first round depending how tough that series is, but he was a liability yesterday on both ends, and he was inconsistent prior to the injury.  That can only continue for so long.

On the Centers, my main point is that it appears it will continue to be only 1 at a time of Queta, Vucevic, and Garza.  I don't disagree that Queta may get more than 24 minutes or even that Garza may get minutes over Vucevic.  Before the injury, Vucevic was getting the back up minutes and was playing well enough.  He will have to play better than he did yesterday though or it will be Garza.

I have some trepidation over seeing Scheierman for up to 24 minutes per game.  He has been doing fine enough in the regular season (way better than I expected) but in the playoffs, teams have more opportunity to find and exploit the weakest link.  Scheierman will likely get the most minutes out of the 3 (along with Walsh and Hugo) but they can change things up.  I don't think they have any option.  They will have to play some combination of these players.

[Roy H.]

I think BS will get the majority of the minutes over Walsh and Hugo.  Joe has been leaning that way for awhile.  In fact, I'm not expecting them to see the court much at all.

It's going to be interesting to see the breakdown between Vuc and Garza.  Vuc seems like he's clearly the better and more versatile player, but has he earned Joe's trust?  The upside is higher with Vucevic, but so is the downside.  I still think he gets the call, but I'll be curious to see if Joe sticks with him if he struggles initially.

The good thing, unlike in some years, is that we actually have emergency depth that can play.  If we have to call on Garza or Walsh or Hugo, I don't think they'll be intimidated.

[slamtheking]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, Atl and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

[Roy H.]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, Atl and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

Orlando, not Atlanta.

[Celtics2021]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, Atl and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

The Knicks are far, far more likely to wind up in 4th than 2nd.  They have a more difficult remaining schedule than Boston, and as you noted, pretty much need to run the table while we lose out.

[SparzWizard]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, Atl and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

I heard the magic number is 2 for Boston...win 2 of their remaining games and we secure the 2-seed? I haven't checked the seeding comparisons between BOS/NYK yet.

Needless to say, New York has a tougher schedule than Boston to close the regular season...so it's more likely BOS ends up at 2.

[slamtheking]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, ORL and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

The Knicks are far, far more likely to wind up in 4th than 2nd.  They have a more difficult remaining schedule than Boston, and as you noted, pretty much need to run the table while we lose out.

NY getting the #2 is looking a lot less like the longshot it was a couple of games ago.  The NO game for the C's is now a lot more important than it should be.

[Celtics2021]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, ORL and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

The Knicks are far, far more likely to wind up in 4th than 2nd.  They have a more difficult remaining schedule than Boston, and as you noted, pretty much need to run the table while we lose out.

NY getting the #2 is looking a lot less like the longshot it was a couple of games ago.  The NO game for the C's is now a lot more important than it should be.

Dude, it is still a huge long shot.  New Orleans is resting Zion, Murphy, Murray, Jones, Bey, and Missi.

[slamtheking]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, ORL and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

The Knicks are far, far more likely to wind up in 4th than 2nd.  They have a more difficult remaining schedule than Boston, and as you noted, pretty much need to run the table while we lose out.

NY getting the #2 is looking a lot less like the longshot it was a couple of games ago.  The NO game for the C's is now a lot more important than it should be.

Dude, it is still a huge long shot.  New Orleans is resting Zion, Murphy, Murray, Jones, Bey, and Missi.

And the C's are reportedly resting all the starters but Jaylen.  I am hoping for a win but not locking it in as one at this point.  NO has no reason to play to win in this other than their players are possibly playing for better contracts and teams next year.

[Celtics2021]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, ORL and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

The Knicks are far, far more likely to wind up in 4th than 2nd.  They have a more difficult remaining schedule than Boston, and as you noted, pretty much need to run the table while we lose out.

NY getting the #2 is looking a lot less like the longshot it was a couple of games ago.  The NO game for the C's is now a lot more important than it should be.

Dude, it is still a huge long shot.  New Orleans is resting Zion, Murphy, Murray, Jones, Bey, and Missi.

And the C's are reportedly resting all the starters but Jaylen.  I am hoping for a win but not locking it in as one at this point.  NO has no reason to play to win in this other than their players are possibly playing for better contracts and teams next year.

Tatum was never going to play, but Queta, Hauser, and White are all listed as probable, so I do not know what you are talking about.  New York is also playing Toronto, which can get out of the play-in with a win tonight, so they have plenty more to play for than the Pelicans 3rd stringers.

And in terms of long shots, the odds makers today give New Orleans a 10% chance of winning and NY a 70% chance of winning.  New York needs both of them to happen to still have a chance at the 2 seed, so that is a 7% chance.  And then they have to also win on Sunday while the Celtics lose.  If we imagine both of those are 50% chances because it is the last day of the season and all teams are likely to rest heavily, then the probability gets down to about 2%.  The Knicks are still an incredible long shot.  Maybe not as long of a shot as the start of the week, when it was down below 1%, but still epically long.

If you can find a bet to place on the Knicks winning the division, you should probably place it.  DraftKings is giving the odds at 40:1, or a 2.4% chance.  You seem to think the likelihood is far higher.

[slamtheking]

looking at the remaining schedule, there's still an outside chance NY could get the #2 seed.  NY would have to win out (including a win over the C's in their upcoming game this week) and C's would have to lose 3 of their last 4 which isn't out of the realm of possibility with games against NY, ORL and Char remaining.  Only NO looks to be a 'sure' win left.

I still think the C's will take the #2 seed but didn't realize that it's not as much of a sure thing as I thought.

The Knicks are far, far more likely to wind up in 4th than 2nd.  They have a more difficult remaining schedule than Boston, and as you noted, pretty much need to run the table while we lose out.

NY getting the #2 is looking a lot less like the longshot it was a couple of games ago.  The NO game for the C's is now a lot more important than it should be.

Dude, it is still a huge long shot.  New Orleans is resting Zion, Murphy, Murray, Jones, Bey, and Missi.

And the C's are reportedly resting all the starters but Jaylen.  I am hoping for a win but not locking it in as one at this point.  NO has no reason to play to win in this other than their players are possibly playing for better contracts and teams next year.

Tatum was never going to play, but Queta, Hauser, and White are all listed as probable, so I do not know what you are talking about.  New York is also playing Toronto, which can get out of the play-in with a win tonight, so they have plenty more to play for than the Pelicans 3rd stringers.

And in terms of long shots, the odds makers today give New Orleans a 10% chance of winning and NY a 70% chance of winning.  New York needs both of them to happen to still have a chance at the 2 seed, so that is a 7% chance.  And then they have to also win on Sunday while the Celtics lose.  If we imagine both of those are 50% chances because it is the last day of the season and all teams are likely to rest heavily, then the probability gets down to about 2%.  The Knicks are still an incredible long shot.  Maybe not as long of a shot as the start of the week, when it was down below 1%, but still epically long.

If you can find a bet to place on the Knicks winning the division, you should probably place it.  DraftKings is giving the odds at 40:1, or a 2.4% chance.  You seem to think the likelihood is far higher.

far higher, no.  non-negligible odds, yes.  #2 should have been wrapped up by now but unfortunately it's not.