2026 Red Sox/MLB Season Thread

[Ilikesports17]

Dodgers got swept in classic LA fashion. No more 3peat. Yikes.

Moneyball reins.

I don't know how this is all going to impact the offseason CBA discussions between the owners and the players association/union.  It seems that this makes the argument that the big spenders are ruining the competitive balance, a harder argument to make.  And since very few teams can spend like the big spenders, more teams will be trying to do it the MIL way.  They really don't have any choice.

As to the Dodgers, they looked like a tired old team.  They did make the NLCS, that is not exactly a bad season, but it was WS or bust for them.  And to get swept, wow.

You know the Red Sox ownership/management is watching.  I think the Red Sox can be something in between MIL and LAD, I think they have to.  You have to build some parts of your roster the moneyball way.  I think the Sox have done that.  But the Sox are not MIL so they can do some level of big money spending too.  But you have to be smart about who you spend the big money on.

I don't think we can be complete prisoners of the moment, though.  The Dodgers have won three World Series since 2020, and have made the playoffs every season since 2013.

In the American League, the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in payroll, and all made the playoffs.  In the National League, the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Cubs and Padres ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in payroll.

Good point. Once in a while a small-market team goes all the way, such as the 2015 Royals, but they almost never sustain that success. Big spending doesn't guarantee titles, but titles almost always require big spending.

If all the LAD deferred money was accurately accounted for, I suspect that LAD spent way more than anyone else in getting these last 2 WS titles.  To me, that ability and willingness to spend that much more than anyone else is as much of an outlier as teams like KC and HOU winning titles.  This year is going to be another year where a low spending team wins.

In 2018, when BOS won the WS and was the top spender (based on cash), they only spent $35M more than SF.  It wasn't like the current LAD.  Trying to buy championships, even when spending like LAD, is no guarantee.  If you take LAD out of the equation due to how much more they spend relative to everyone else, spending becomes much less of a predictive factor.  It is still a factor, of course, but plenty of teams spend and go nowhere because they do not spend well or smart.  Some teams moneyball well, other teams not so much.

Is there a good reason not to have a salary cap?

Its worse for the players pockets right? I assume it also would force cheap owners to pay more. So the winners would be in theory, fans, and richer owners.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Dodgers got swept in classic LA fashion. No more 3peat. Yikes.

Moneyball reins.

I don't know how this is all going to impact the offseason CBA discussions between the owners and the players association/union.  It seems that this makes the argument that the big spenders are ruining the competitive balance, a harder argument to make.  And since very few teams can spend like the big spenders, more teams will be trying to do it the MIL way.  They really don't have any choice.

As to the Dodgers, they looked like a tired old team.  They did make the NLCS, that is not exactly a bad season, but it was WS or bust for them.  And to get swept, wow.

You know the Red Sox ownership/management is watching.  I think the Red Sox can be something in between MIL and LAD, I think they have to.  You have to build some parts of your roster the moneyball way.  I think the Sox have done that.  But the Sox are not MIL so they can do some level of big money spending too.  But you have to be smart about who you spend the big money on.

I don't think we can be complete prisoners of the moment, though.  The Dodgers have won three World Series since 2020, and have made the playoffs every season since 2013.

In the American League, the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in payroll, and all made the playoffs.  In the National League, the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Cubs and Padres ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in payroll.

I don't disagree, but it is pretty clear that top spending does not automatically correlate to winning titles.  Here are the numbers on the last 10 or so WS winners and their rank in terms of spending:

2025   LAD      1ST
2024   LAD      3RD*  (Deferred money factors in)
2023   TEX      4TH
2022   HOU     8TH
2021   ATL     10TH
2020   COVID
2019   WAS    7TH
2018   BOS     1ST
2017   HOU   17TH
2016   CHC     5TH
2015   KC      13TH

Of course spending is a factor in team success, but it does not dominate the equation like one would think, at least it has not recently.  Teams that "moneyball" well do about as well as teams that spend a lot.  I think if you want to maximize your chances, you need to do both and do both well.  LAD can win titles by just spending, I am not sure many other teams can.  Even NYY has done a good job of developing players.  They spend too, too often on old pitchers, but they do both.

BOS needs to do both and do both well.  They can't be LAD and there is no need for them to be MIL.  I think BOS has developed pretty well lately, both pitching and position players.  Their big spending as not been has good.

What that list says to me is that if you want to win a title -- like, really want to win one -- you need to be in the top 10 for spending. As I said before, spending big doesn't guarantee a title, but it's a lot harder to win a title via moneyball.

[BitterJim]

Dodgers got swept in classic LA fashion. No more 3peat. Yikes.

Moneyball reins.

I don't know how this is all going to impact the offseason CBA discussions between the owners and the players association/union.  It seems that this makes the argument that the big spenders are ruining the competitive balance, a harder argument to make.  And since very few teams can spend like the big spenders, more teams will be trying to do it the MIL way.  They really don't have any choice.

As to the Dodgers, they looked like a tired old team.  They did make the NLCS, that is not exactly a bad season, but it was WS or bust for them.  And to get swept, wow.

You know the Red Sox ownership/management is watching.  I think the Red Sox can be something in between MIL and LAD, I think they have to.  You have to build some parts of your roster the moneyball way.  I think the Sox have done that.  But the Sox are not MIL so they can do some level of big money spending too.  But you have to be smart about who you spend the big money on.

I don't think we can be complete prisoners of the moment, though.  The Dodgers have won three World Series since 2020, and have made the playoffs every season since 2013.

In the American League, the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox ranked 1st, 3rd and 4th in payroll, and all made the playoffs.  In the National League, the Dodgers, Phillies, Braves, Cubs and Padres ranked 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in payroll.

I don't disagree, but it is pretty clear that top spending does not automatically correlate to winning titles.  Here are the numbers on the last 10 or so WS winners and their rank in terms of spending:

2025   LAD      1ST
2024   LAD      3RD*  (Deferred money factors in)
2023   TEX      4TH
2022   HOU     8TH
2021   ATL     10TH
2020   COVID
2019   WAS    7TH
2018   BOS     1ST
2017   HOU   17TH
2016   CHC     5TH
2015   KC      13TH

Of course spending is a factor in team success, but it does not dominate the equation like one would think, at least it has not recently.  Teams that "moneyball" well do about as well as teams that spend a lot.  I think if you want to maximize your chances, you need to do both and do both well.  LAD can win titles by just spending, I am not sure many other teams can.  Even NYY has done a good job of developing players.  They spend too, too often on old pitchers, but they do both.

BOS needs to do both and do both well.  They can't be LAD and there is no need for them to be MIL.  I think BOS has developed pretty well lately, both pitching and position players.  Their big spending as not been has good.

What that list says to me is that if you want to win a title -- like, really want to win one -- you need to be in the top 10 for spending. As I said before, spending big doesn't guarantee a title, but it's a lot harder to win a title via moneyball.

Yup. 50% of the winners in that period were top 5 in payroll, and 80% in the top 10. Only one team not in the top half of the league, but they were cheating so it's hard to give them too much credit. Money isn't the only factor, but it's a huge factor.

Using analytics to identify players doesn't have to mean you put together a low paid moneyball team, you can use it to put together a great team too. That's what the Dodgers have been doing the past decade, and it's paid off (not just with the last 2 rings, but all the WS appearances too. You can't win if you don't get there )

[Vermont Green]

TB vs MIL in the WS. I wonder what that futures bet is paying out. 

[Redz]

TB vs MIL in the WS. I wonder what that futures bet is paying out.

I forgot they were even playing last night.

First time winner guaranteed.  Maybe they?ll get some fans in the seats in Tampa. 

Top seed from each league made it.  I?m pulling for Milwaukee.  Their fans seem to care. 

[Donoghus]

I hope the Brewers sweep Tampa. That fanbase deserves it a helluva lot more

[slamtheking]

I hope the Brewers sweep Tampa. That fanbase deserves it a helluva lot more

YES WE DO!!!!

been waiting to [dang] long to get back to the WS, nevermind win one

[Vermont Green]

I answered by own question on a MIL/TB parlay to make the WS, 696 to 1.  Did anyone have this?

1. Parlay Option: Both Teams to Make the World Series (Pennant Winners)

According to preseason lines:
Milwaukee Brewers to win the NL: +1600 (or 16-1)
Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL: +4000 (or 40-1)

If you parlayed these two futures together before Opening Day, the math yields a +69600 payout line (or 696-1).

A $10 bet on this parlay would net $6,960 in pure profit.

[Donoghus]

I imagine quite a few people had Milwaukee.  They were defending NL Central champs and actually led the NL in wins in 2025.  16-1 is actually great value on that. 

I can't imagine many people took Tampa before the season, though.  Sub .500 playing in the AL East.  I'd imagine most people had them pegged for 4th or 5th in the division.

Betting on both to make the World Series as a parlay? Almost unfathomable outside of sheer luck.

[Vermont Green]

I imagine quite a few people had Milwaukee.  They were defending NL Central champs and actually led the NL in wins in 2025.  16-1 is actually great value on that. 

I can't imagine many people took Tampa before the season, though.  Sub .500 playing in the AL East.  I'd imagine most people had them pegged for 4th or 5th in the division.

Betting on both to make the World Series as a parlay? Almost unfathomable outside of sheer luck.

Yeah, maybe someone from MIL who did a snowbird move to Tampa or something like that, and just bet it for fun.

[slamtheking]

I hope the Brewers sweep Tampa. That fanbase deserves it a helluva lot more

YES WE DO!!!!

been waiting to [dang] long to get back to the WS, nevermind win one

FINALLY WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS!!!!

[Redz]

Congrats to the Brewers.  A dominant run and a deserving champ. 

[Vermont Green]

I heard the argument a lot that moneyball works in the regular season but MIL had never won a title.  That is now out.  Quite a run for MIL.  Hard not to be happy for them and their fans.

The point isn't that BOS needs to be just like MIL.  But I don't think BOS can win a title just trying to be like LAD.  They need to do moneyball like MIL (do it as well) but do it with more money (which they have) and of course, when they do spend money, they need to do that well too.

So the off season officially starts.  I think BOS is in a good place.  If they make some smart moves (both moneyball moves and big spender moves), they can be right there.  Hopefully they settle the CBA and there is actually a season.

[byennie]

I heard the argument a lot that moneyball works in the regular season but MIL had never won a title.  That is now out.  Quite a run for MIL.  Hard not to be happy for them and their fans.

The point isn't that BOS needs to be just like MIL.  But I don't think BOS can win a title just trying to be like LAD.  They need to do moneyball like MIL (do it as well) but do it with more money (which they have) and of course, when they do spend money, they need to do that well too.

So the off season officially starts.  I think BOS is in a good place.  If they make some smart moves (both moneyball moves and big spender moves), they can be right there.  Hopefully they settle the CBA and there is actually a season.

My mental model is that Moneyball is sort of regular season biased by definition. That's where all the data is, that's where you can optimize every little situation, platoons, build a roster with an edge around OBP or your home ballpark, etc...

Then you get to the playoffs and you have a specific opponent, not an average one. You focused on winning games to get there, not necessarily being able to afford both. That sort of thing.

Seems like MIL maybe just made really good decisions without overspending, but, for example, having the best young pitcher in the game always helps and isn't exactly a strategy specific to budget...

[Ilikesports17]

I heard the argument a lot that moneyball works in the regular season but MIL had never won a title.  That is now out.  Quite a run for MIL.  Hard not to be happy for them and their fans.

The point isn't that BOS needs to be just like MIL.  But I don't think BOS can win a title just trying to be like LAD.  They need to do moneyball like MIL (do it as well) but do it with more money (which they have) and of course, when they do spend money, they need to do that well too.

So the off season officially starts.  I think BOS is in a good place.  If they make some smart moves (both moneyball moves and big spender moves), they can be right there.  Hopefully they settle the CBA and there is actually a season.

How do you define "moneyball"?

Because it seems like at this point people define it as "small market team does good = moneyball"