With 15 games to go, I think 9-6 or 10-5 is very realistic. That would have us finishing with 53-54 wins. That is INSANE considering the expectations going in, and also having started 0-3
Not just that they?ll win mid 50s. They win mid-50s and have JT back for the playoffs. It?s been a magical, amazing season. Idk how any of you would estimate JTs %, but I think he?s already 85-90%, with 15 games left. May not get to 100% but he?s going to be close.
I have to look at his advanced stats to see how what % of the ball he is driving vs what % are pullups and what % are 3s but the eye test tells me he's still settling for 3s and jumpshots more so than attacking the basket. Or when he is, he is driving and kicking out to shooters, which is a good thing, because he's being unselfish and using his gravity - the defense has to respect the player he was, not the player he currently is, so they have to help on his drives, and it leaves the likes of Hauser, White and PP open.
It does seem to me though that he is doing that in a way to avoid contact at the rim. If you look at his raw stats this year compared to previous years, in 4 games (before this one) he is averaging 2.3 FTA vs 6-8 FTA over the last 3-4 years.

I will qualify it by saying it's a small sample size AND he's coming back from an injury that for many lesser athletes is a career ending injury. Kobe came back after his and he wasn't the same. KD was, but he's more of a jump shooter, Tatum attacks the rim a lot more. He did a few times tonight and cashed in but he also had some bad misses. It's very early so it's most likely just lack of conditioning, lack of lift, because there were definitely occasions, like when he turned the corner and blew by Booker for a layup that his explosiveness, his first step, was clearly there, but there are other occasions where he seems out of puff.
I'm very hesitant to criticize since I was one of the ones who said we needed to give him a long rope to begin with, given what he was coming back from, and we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that he even came back this season at all, and right now he's playing a solid role as a above average rotation player who can drive and kick, pass out to shooters and rebound, or shoot himself. He can still get a bucket if you need him to, he just needs to do it in other ways than he has in the past, and great players adapt, they find ways to continue to affect the game. And hopefully these next 14 games he gets a long enough runway to do that. Right now I would say he's around 70-75%, which is impressive with a stat line of 20ppg, 8rpg, 4.5apg in under 30 mins a game.