Poll: Expectations This Spring For The Team IF Tatum Returns?

[Vermont Green]

The question is based on the assumption that Tatum returns.  But I guess it is up to us to assume if he returns 100%, no minutes restrictions for the playoffs, or something less than this.  I am going to assume that if he does return, he will return at or near 100%.  That means the playoff rotation could look something like this:

White
Brown
Tatum
Vucevic
Queta

Pritchard
Hauser
Garza

All the rest see only garbage time in the playoffs unless there is foul trouble.  Maybe some nights it is Walsh over Garza for some limited minutes or maybe the rotation is limited only to 7.  In any case, I think this is a competitive playoff rotation.

I have no idea how far this team can go though.  They may well have the 2 best players on the court against any east team so based on that, no reason they can't win the east.  That is best case.  Worst case is pretty much what happened last season and vs MIA in 2023.  I don't like doing predictions for superstitious reasons, but I am going to make an exception and vote make it to the finals.  This team has exceeded my expectations all along,

Thinking that he might possibly come back and be 100% seems foolish to me.  I?m not saying he wouldn?t be 100% healthy, just that he won?t be what he was before he got hurt. Not this season, and we?ll see about ever.

But mj comparison someone just made feels about right.  Maybe after a full off season he?ll get close to what he was.

The condition of Tatum is just an assumption for a hypothetical question.  And the assumption I made was at or near 100% by the playoffs. If he is not near 100% or can?t play full minutes, not sure it is smart to bring him back.


I see it as possible he can get to that point but it is no certainty. I am fine if they determine he is not ready.

[ozgod]

Depending on when Tatum gets back, it's entirely possible his arrival would cause more disruption before they manage to integrate him, given his historical high usage and having to adapt to a lesser role. So I would be cautious in anointing him as our savior. It's tough for a guy coming back from a tough injury, trying to fit back into a team that has overachieved all season, and be treated as the Messiah who will take us to the Finals. Our team will ultimately be much better with him back in it but it depends on what version of him we get, and how quickly he can reintegrate. Unfortunately it's not as simple as reactivating him on NBA2K and he comes back with a 95 rating 

If he a) comes back in time to reintegrate; b) is willing to accept a lesser role while he ramps back up; c) is healthy enough to banish any mental demons he might have about relying on his leg again, then he would definitely be a huge asset. Those are three big IFs.

[Kernewek]

My thought is if the Jordan Bulls didn't make the Finals the year he returned mid-season, then it's almost impossible to do.

I'm saying ECF.

This is more or less where I fall - unless Tatum is an absolute supernova in the postseason, I don't know if we make it out of the east.

[Celtics2021]

My thought is if the Jordan Bulls didn't make the Finals the year he returned mid-season, then it's almost impossible to do.

I'm saying ECF.

This is more or less where I fall - unless Tatum is an absolute supernova in the postseason, I don't know if we make it out of the east.

The difference is that the Jordan Bulls were 34-31 when Jordan returned, before going 13-4 after he came back.  So he elevated them from a probable 1st round exit to ECF.  The Celtics are currently the 2-seed through 2/3 of the season, so ECF without Tatum is a reasonable expectation, and would probably come down to matchups in the earlier rounds.  Now, Tatum is also not Jordan, of course, and he is not going to score 55 points 10 days after returning, but I think the more important point is these Celtics are far better than the 95 Bulls were.  The only reason the are not several games ahead of the Knicks is those first three weeks of the season when the team was still figuring itself out.  Over the last 41 games, they have the same record as the Thunder and Spurs and are one game off the Pistons.  Their net rating of 8.4 is far closer to the Pistons at 9.0 than it is the Knicks at 5.8.

So while 95 Jordan > hypothetical 26 Tatum, 26 Tatumless Celtics >> than 95 Jordanless Bulls, and therefore 26 Tatum Celtics > 95 Jordan Bulls.

[Who]

Depending on when Tatum gets back, it's entirely possible his arrival would cause more disruption before they manage to integrate him, given his historical high usage and having to adapt to a lesser role. So I would be cautious in anointing him as our savior. It's tough for a guy coming back from a tough injury, trying to fit back into a team that has overachieved all season, and be treated as the Messiah who will take us to the Finals. Our team will ultimately be much better with him back in it but it depends on what version of him we get, and how quickly he can reintegrate. Unfortunately it's not as simple as reactivating him on NBA2K and he comes back with a 95 rating 

If he a) comes back in time to reintegrate; b) is willing to accept a lesser role while he ramps back up; c) is healthy enough to banish any mental demons he might have about relying on his leg again, then he would definitely be a huge asset. Those are three big IFs.

This.

(1) What level of individual performance Tatum is able to play at.

(2) How his reintroduction to the team alters the dynamics of the team. How he impacts others around him. How he alters ball movement. How Jaylen's role shifts. How the role players roles shift. Could be positive. Could be negative. Most likely it will be a mixed bag of the two with different outcomes (positive or negative) for different players.

[Vermont Green]

I am not worried about Tatum integrating with the team in time for the playoffs.  There is enough time to work though that.  And I am assuming that if he does come back, that he will have demonstrated that his conditioning is in place to be near his 100% self.  Now touch and feel, at NBA game speed, may take some time to get back, but again, he just needs to have it back in time for the playoffs.

So my logic is that if the conditioning is not in place, he won't come back.  If he does come back, it will only be if he has absolutely demonstrated that his body is ready for the NBA from pretty much day one.  The rest (touch, speed of the game, etc.) will take some time, but he will have some time.

Said another way, I see it as one extreme or the other.  Either he doesn't come back, or he does come back and he plays at his normal self.  I don't see him or the team wanting him on the floor, especially in the playoffs, if has limited minutes or limited recovery.  No reason to do that.  What would be the point?

[smicker16]

For me, it comes down to matchups and I sadly think the Knicks are a brutal matchup for us.  Not solely because we lost to them last year because we were crushing them in two games so you could make the case we looked like the better team for the majority of that series.  I just think they are a tough matchup for us with Robinson on the offensive boards and then the Brunson/KAT combo and how they have the wings to wear down JB and JT.  Brunson is tough for us because he can get a mismatch on Vooch or Queta and pick them apart but if we try not to switch then he will end up with drop coverage that he can take advantage of.  That will just be tough for us to consistently get stops against I feel especially down the stretch whereas we will have to work a bit harder on offense.  That is why I would say this team with Tatum will not win it all or get to the finals. 

Granted I am probably hedging my emotions to avoid a big let up in case we do lose to the Knicks!  Still hopeful and anything can happen of course but those are my current thoughts.

[boscel33]

I think this is a Finals team with or without Tatum.  This revolves around the Vuc addition and what he brings.  Queta has been really good, but Vuc is another level.

[slamtheking]

For me, it comes down to matchups and I sadly think the Knicks are a brutal matchup for us.  Not solely because we lost to them last year because we were crushing them in two games so you could make the case we looked like the better team for the majority of that series.  I just think they are a tough matchup for us with Robinson on the offensive boards and then the Brunson/KAT combo and how they have the wings to wear down JB and JT.  Brunson is tough for us because he can get a mismatch on Vooch or Queta and pick them apart but if we try not to switch then he will end up with drop coverage that he can take advantage of.  That will just be tough for us to consistently get stops against I feel especially down the stretch whereas we will have to work a bit harder on offense.  That is why I would say this team with Tatum will not win it all or get to the finals. 

Granted I am probably hedging my emotions to avoid a big let up in case we do lose to the Knicks!  Still hopeful and anything can happen of course but those are my current thoughts.

The flipside to that is that last playoffs the Knicks slapped the C's upside the head by winning those 2 games from large deficits when the C's just stopped playing hard so if the C's meet them in the playoffs this year, they'll know they can't let up against them and will have the motivation to avenge that disaster from last year.  That goes for Joe too.  He has to have learned that he can't get locked into continuing to bomb from 3 when they aren't falling so the team will need a Plan B on offense.  There's less shooters this year so if the 3 ain't falling, he can't just hope cycling through players will end up finding someone who's hot from 3.

also, Joe should have a gameplan for Brunson and KAT on offense.  He has White and Hugo to throw at Brunson on D and can throw White/Tatum/JB/Q on KAT.  There's other players on the Knicks to be worried about but Vuc and Q are better rebounders than Al, KP and Kornet so Mitchell will hopefully mitigated to a large extent.

[keevsnick]

Its going to depend a lot on what he looks like.

Even without Tatum I could see anywhere from a first round exit to n NBA finals trip but would probably bet on either a 2nd round or ECF exit. I think they should be pretty heavily favored in round one, 50/50 type picks in round 2, and have a decent shot in the ECF (less than 50%, better than 25%). They are a good team right now and on pace to be a top 4 pick, minimum expectation should be round 2. 

With Tatum at say 80% or better I would boost the minimum expectation to MAKE the ECF and give them a long shot at a title.

[jambr380]

This is pretty much a no-win situation for Tatum. He's going to come back to a top 2 or 3 team and it's expected that he'll help catapult them to the next level. If they fail to make it to the ECF, people will say that it's Tatum's fault.

The fact is, this team has played a lot better than expected and it's not just because Jaylen Brown has carried them (check out the on/off numbers - they're scary bad for Brown). Brown's new attitude that he can lead a team on his own could throw a wrench into how well reintegration goes for Tatum, but Tatum will be the best player on the Celtics the moment he steps on the floor.

And the current best player on the Celtics imo is Derrick White. Luckily, you couldn't ask for a better teammate than White. And not only should Tatum give the team a boost, but White might actually be able to shoot again without having to carry the lead ballhandling duties, while also being the best defensive player on the team.

If the team loses to the Knicks in the 2nd round, that shouldn't be considered a failure. We've been a great regular season team, but not sure we can really reach that next level in the playoffs when teams are healthier and preparing for you every night. It really depends on Tatum and how close he is to 100%.