Celtics gotta figure out the plan soon. Bc they ain?t winning Edited. Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.e in the playoffs with what they have.
So are they buyers or sellers?
Would help if they knew what Tatum is thinking
I think Brad already knows the plan, and has known for a while. They're just not telling us
Personally, I don't think they will be buyers, of it they are, it will be a small deal, someone to back up Queta and Garza maybe. They may only use a small portion of the Porzingis TPE and let the rest expire, and then create a new one with Simons. Financially, I feel that if Brad is mapping out the timetable of the Celtics contention window, he would be targeting 2027-2030 as the time when you really want to open your pocketbook, pay the tax, go over the 2nd apron, bear all the roster building penalties. Here's our salary cap for the next 5 seasons:
So right now we are $4m over the 1st apron, just under $8m below the 2nd apron, $12m over the tax line and will still be paying $nearly 40m in tax, which is a multiple of 3.25x (for every $1 we are over the tax line we pay $3.25 in tax so the $12m over the tax line becomes $39m in tax). There's only 3 teams that will be paying more tax than us this season - Cleveland ($120m), GS ($81m) and NY ($45m). If we don't reset the tax by going below it this year and next, the rate increases exponentially next season, and again the season after that.
This part will be confusing And look at the players we have to sign to extensions in 2027-28 if their improvement continues - Queta, Walsh and Garza at least will command more than the $2.5 vet min we're paying them. Even if we did nothing else to improve our roster and assuming we brought back in the same amount of salary Simons is making now in a trade ($27m) we will definitely be over both the 2nd apron and the tax line by then.
So if we don't reset we could conceivably be paying $63m in tax in 2026-27 (5.25x the amount we are over which is $12m), and the same in 2027-28
if we didn't add salary. But we will have to add salary with Queta, Garza and Walsh at least (I thought maybe Minott as well but he seems to have fallen off, but we may have to convert Amari to a standard contract by then) so assume Q and Walsh get $10m each and Garza $5m, thats $15m, which would increase our tax rate to 5.5x (it's complicated to explain how the marginal tax rate system works basically you get charged more the more marginal salary you take on, it's in the CBA if anyone wants to learn more about it - I think very few people will as its boring
) and we would be $27m over the tax line, which would mean we would pay $150m-$155m in tax. And that's with the current players we have, before upgrading anyone via trade.
So it's a tough call for Brad - he has to decide if he's willing to pay those tax rates right at the time that he wants to spend money to contend, or does he reset it now and be in a better position later on, when he knows he HAS to go over the tax line, because of all the extensions coming.
The only thing I could think of is if he wanted to find a player with a fungible contract as a return for Simons, someone who had value around the league whose Bird rights we could get and who could be flipped for someone else in 2027-28 if we needed to find someone. But it would be a huge risk doing that, player value changes drastically year on year.
This is quite possibly the most boring, depressing thing I've ever written on CS
I just wanted to work out what Brad might be facing when it comes time to decide what to do this offseason. And because of all this I think he probably decided what to do long ago - small trade, salary dump of Simons or nothing at all.
Of course he could very well prove me wrong and swing for the fences - I would be wrong but it would be ok because it would be exciting
@Celtics2021 and @Jambr let me know if my math added up
Topic: Bucks (18-28) at Celtics (30-18) Game #49 2/1/26 (Read 1160 times)