Netflix buys Warner Brothers (including HBO)

[Goldstar88]

Well that?s terrible news. Now Netflix will ruin HBO. 

HBO has done a fine job of ruining HBO IMO. I haven?t really enjoyed anything they?ve put out in years.

I think HBO still puts out some quality programming.  In the last few years I've enjoyed several shows, including Mare of Easttown, Succession, Task, The Last of Us, Welcome to Derry, White Lotus, House of the Dragon, Euphoria, Perry Mason, Peacemaker, The Penguin and The Chair Company.  That doesn't mean they all get an A+, but they are generally entertaining.

Completely agree, Roy. I was going to respond with something similar. They still put out the best content, IMO.

[Silas]

Well that?s terrible news. Now Netflix will ruin HBO. 

HBO has done a fine job of ruining HBO IMO. I haven?t really enjoyed anything they?ve put out in years.

I think HBO still puts out some quality programming.  In the last few years I've enjoyed several shows, including Mare of Easttown, Succession, Task, The Last of Us, Welcome to Derry, White Lotus, House of the Dragon, Euphoria, Perry Mason, Peacemaker, The Penguin and The Chair Company.  That doesn't mean they all get an A+, but they are generally entertaining.

The Chair Company is a strange but entertaining show....I like it.

[Goldstar88]

Nope! 

[Birdman]

Paramount bought WB right?

[Celtics2021]

Paramount bought WB right?

No, they have a proposal that the WB board might accept.  After that there will be regulatory review and it is unlikely the sale will be completed until 2027, if it ultimately goes through.

[Amonkey]

So what happened in the end? Netflix was all set to buy, then Trump complains and Paramount offers an amount, now Netflix no longer wants to buy? Seems like there's some fishy behind the scenes going on although, to be honest, I don't care as much about these corporate drama. The only thing I don't like is the less competition there is, the more expensive these streaming services can be.

[Kernewek]

So what happened in the end? Netflix was all set to buy, then Trump complains and Paramount offers an amount, now Netflix no longer wants to buy? Seems like there's some fishy behind the scenes going on although, to be honest, I don't care as much about these corporate drama. The only thing I don't like is the less competition there is, the more expensive these streaming services can be.

Basically, WB is bound (read: required) to get the best deal for the shareholders that it can, and Paramount's new offer is worth more to the shareholders than the Netflix deal, even with the $2.8B break clause that Warner Bros. will have to pay to Netflix for reneaging. Since the WB-Netflix deal hadn't been signed (and Netflix has declined to match), this is how the cookie has crumbled.

My sources are a couple of friends who work at WB and have been receiving emails on the topic from the leadership, but you can confirm this more or less anywhere.

[Celtics2021]

So what happened in the end? Netflix was all set to buy, then Trump complains and Paramount offers an amount, now Netflix no longer wants to buy? Seems like there's some fishy behind the scenes going on although, to be honest, I don't care as much about these corporate drama. The only thing I don't like is the less competition there is, the more expensive these streaming services can be.

No, Netflix and Paramount both wanted it.  Netflix did not want the whole company tho (they had no interest in CNN, for example) while Paramount wanted everything.  Paramount raised its bid a couple of times, and Netflix stuck at its original number.  The slightly surprising thing was Netflix walking away when the WB board still seemed inclined to accept Netflix offer even after the most recent Paramount price raise, but my guess is they were getting cold feet and the latest round gave them an out.

It is unclear what will happen at the federal level with this.  The head of the DOJ antitrust division stepped down last month after she complained that there was too much political interference going on (not necessarily about this merger).  I have worked with DOJ on several telecom and media mergers, in multiple administrations, and many of the staff I worked with, most especially one in leadership, are still there, so my guess is at least initially it will be given a close look (and indeed, already is receiving that review).  A review of this size will probably take until the end of this year, and then there will either be an agreement to let the merger go through after either a divestment or some other conditions, or the DOJ will sue to stop.

State attorneys general, most obviously California with the Hollywood connection, but also others, may sue to stop it themselves if the DOJ does not act.  (We saw that in the first Trump administration with Sprint and T-Mobile, for example, although their suit was unsuccessful because the Court found that conditions imposed by the federal government were sufficient to limit the potential harms).  So my guess is this will go to the Courts one way or the other, unless Paramount makes a lot of concessions to appease the Feds and the States.

[slamtheking]

So what happened in the end? Netflix was all set to buy, then Trump complains and Paramount offers an amount, now Netflix no longer wants to buy? Seems like there's some fishy behind the scenes going on although, to be honest, I don't care as much about these corporate drama. The only thing I don't like is the less competition there is, the more expensive these streaming services can be.

No, Netflix and Paramount both wanted it.  Netflix did not want the whole company tho (they had no interest in CNN, for example) while Paramount wanted everything.  Paramount raised its bid a couple of times, and Netflix stuck at its original number.  The slightly surprising thing was Netflix walking away when the WB board still seemed inclined to accept Netflix offer even after the most recent Paramount price raise, but my guess is they were getting cold feet and the latest round gave them an out.

It is unclear what will happen at the federal level with this.  The head of the DOJ antitrust division stepped down last month after she complained that there was too much political interference going on (not necessarily about this merger).  I have worked with DOJ on several telecom and media mergers, in multiple administrations, and many of the staff I worked with, most especially one in leadership, are still there, so my guess is at least initially it will be given a close look (and indeed, already is receiving that review).  A review of this size will probably take until the end of this year, and then there will either be an agreement to let the merger go through after either a divestment or some other conditions, or the DOJ will sue to stop.

State attorneys general, most obviously California with the Hollywood connection, but also others, may sue to stop it themselves if the DOJ does not act.  (We saw that in the first Trump administration with Sprint and T-Mobile, for example, although their suit was unsuccessful because the Court found that conditions imposed by the federal government were sufficient to limit the potential harms).  So my guess is this will go to the Courts one way or the other, unless Paramount makes a lot of concessions to appease the Feds and the States.

translate that into:
Most Likely - change CNN to a Fox-News clone or at the least canning Trump's critics and becoming Fox-lite
Quite Possible - cancel anti-Trump programming on HBO such as Bill Maher and John Oliver.
Probably Not But Wouldnt Be Surprised - Add a Trump-like character to House of the Dragon that can fly on dragons and decimate free villages not under his thumb with dragon fire.   

[Celtics2021]

So what happened in the end? Netflix was all set to buy, then Trump complains and Paramount offers an amount, now Netflix no longer wants to buy? Seems like there's some fishy behind the scenes going on although, to be honest, I don't care as much about these corporate drama. The only thing I don't like is the less competition there is, the more expensive these streaming services can be.

No, Netflix and Paramount both wanted it.  Netflix did not want the whole company tho (they had no interest in CNN, for example) while Paramount wanted everything.  Paramount raised its bid a couple of times, and Netflix stuck at its original number.  The slightly surprising thing was Netflix walking away when the WB board still seemed inclined to accept Netflix offer even after the most recent Paramount price raise, but my guess is they were getting cold feet and the latest round gave them an out.

It is unclear what will happen at the federal level with this.  The head of the DOJ antitrust division stepped down last month after she complained that there was too much political interference going on (not necessarily about this merger).  I have worked with DOJ on several telecom and media mergers, in multiple administrations, and many of the staff I worked with, most especially one in leadership, are still there, so my guess is at least initially it will be given a close look (and indeed, already is receiving that review).  A review of this size will probably take until the end of this year, and then there will either be an agreement to let the merger go through after either a divestment or some other conditions, or the DOJ will sue to stop.

State attorneys general, most obviously California with the Hollywood connection, but also others, may sue to stop it themselves if the DOJ does not act.  (We saw that in the first Trump administration with Sprint and T-Mobile, for example, although their suit was unsuccessful because the Court found that conditions imposed by the federal government were sufficient to limit the potential harms).  So my guess is this will go to the Courts one way or the other, unless Paramount makes a lot of concessions to appease the Feds and the States.

translate that into:
Most Likely - change CNN to a Fox-News clone or at the least canning Trump's critics and becoming Fox-lite
Quite Possible - cancel anti-Trump programming on HBO such as Bill Maher and John Oliver.
Probably Not But Wouldnt Be Surprised - Add a Trump-like character to House of the Dragon that can fly on dragons and decimate free villages not under his thumb with dragon fire.   

Those are potential outcomes, of course, but they will also need to do something that reduces harms due to a loss of competition.  Because that is what will cause courts to potentially block the merger (depending, of course, on what judge hears the case). 

My guess is that there will be a divestment of some of the major assets in this deal, including CNN.

[Roy H.]

I can't wait to see a bunch of Tyler Sheridan shows set in Westeros, lol.

[slamtheking]

I can't wait to see a bunch of Tyler Sheridan shows set in Westeros, lol.

and shows with only initials for names.