What it takes to win a title

[mobilija]

Another question- Kawahi and SG have the potential to be All-time players but not Tatum. Why is that?

What does he need to do achieve that? Is it just accolades? Because he?s unlikely to beat out Jocic or SG for MVP? What if, Tatum comes back from injury and is the top 3 of MVP voting for the next several years, maybe grabs a scoring title or even another championship? These are all reasonable expectations for the last 3rd of his career.

[wdleehi]

I think the Celtics have to look at a different historical data point.


A team built around Tatum and Brown is capable of winning a title.


The front office has shown it is capable of building a team to win a title around Tatum and Brown.   


If Tatum wins another title, doesn't that push him further into the "top 30 of all time" discussion?   

[slamtheking]

I think the Celtics have to look at a different historical data point.

A team built around Tatum and Brown is capable of winning a title.

The front office has shown it is capable of building a team to win a title around Tatum and Brown.   

If Tatum wins another title, doesn't that push him further into the "top 30 of all time" discussion?

of course not, that'd show the original premise is faulty.   

[Moranis]

I've always been of the opinion that you work with what you got.

(1) If you got one of those MVP caliber players / All-Time Greats, fantastic.

(2) If you don't, then you try to build a squad more along the lines of the 2004 Pistons or 1979 Sonics. Or even some of those teams that came up short. Like the 1990s Pacers. They did not reach the summit but they came close and were great to watch.


I have never been of the opinion that a team should obsess over getting that MVP caliber guy / All-Time great before they start trying to win. You do need a good foundation but you don't need that. You love to have that. But you don't have to have that.

For this Celtics team, we do not know what Tatum will be like post-injury. We shouldn't rush to judgement in either direction. That (a) he will be a top 5 player like he was before the injury (b) he will never be a top 5 player again post-injury. Wait and see how he recovers. In the meantime, keep building to put the best team we can around him.

We have a team that is close to title contention when Tatum returns. Do not blow it up and do a larger rebuild until we know what condition Tatum is in post-injury. We may already have in place (Tatum, Jaylen, D White) most of what we need to win another title. Add some solid big men and off we go again in the title hunt.

I think that is fair, but even if Tatum comes back to what he was, we all know he isn't in the first category of player, and it is really really hard to win a title without that type of player.  The Celtics got one title, already bucking the historical trend.  To do it again, with your best player coming back from injury and your 2nd best player hitting 30, and without a ton of depth, I just don't see it happening (it obviously isn't a 0% chance, but it certainly isn't a good one).

As for why I think you make the trades now, because Tatum is already going to miss the year.  The team isn't a contender this year and may be pushing just to back door into the playoffs.  The Celtics own their pick, meaning a tank this season makes a lot of sense.  It is also when Brown (and White) will have their greatest value, as their value isn't going to go up as they age. Even if you were inclined to trade Tatum as well and fully reboot, you don't trade him while he is hurt as his value isn't at its greatest point.  I think if the team gets younger, gets out of the tax entirely, and gets some future draft picks, they can truly build a contender next summer with some solid moves and with a lot more high value assets for trading (and potentially cap room).  If Boston has a top 3 pick next summer (in what is supposed to be an incredible draft) it will be a lot easier to land someone like Giannis.

If Boston were to trade Brown to Atlanta and say White to Houston, they'd have a war chest of assets and cap room

Brown for Johnson, Risacher, 26 MIL/NOP
White, Tillman for Sheppard, Adams, Eason, 27 PHO 1st

Something like that.  Gives Boston a 2nd "star" in Johnson next to Tatum, 2 high recent draft picks (Sheppard, Risacher), 2 extra 1st with a good shot at being good, and a decent salary in Adams to trade next summer (or if you keep him, a solid playable center).  Add to that Dybantsa, Boozer, etc. from Boston's own 1st and the team has a real path to true contention and extends the window significantly.

It sounds like a fun path. Everyone loves rooting for higher end youth to develop and ping pong balls. But if the goal is to have a top 30 player All-time, are you getting one from this path? What?s the chance you land Giannis? Less or more than the chance that one of your prospects turns into an all time great? It?s a bird in the hand vs 2 in the bush argument/decision.

 I would love to see some kind of odds calculation done for this. What are the odds that an all time player shakes free and the odds of landing that player if you are one of a handful of teams with assets? What are the odds in any given year of a draft pick in the top 3 becoming and all time player? On top of those odds, you must pick one of those two paths. Versus the odds of building around your near All-time player with two excellent 2nd bananas knowing that you?ve already done it once?

I would guess that if Giannis becomes available next summer that a top 3 pick in the draft would be considered the best asset available and thus if Boston had one of those it would greatly increase the C's chances of landing him.  We saw a bit of that this summer with Dallas and San An landing the top 2 picks.  They were the two destinations everyone really talked about.  If you also have draft picks from other teams that also helps. 

[Moranis]

Another question- Kawahi and SG have the potential to be All-time players but not Tatum. Why is that?

What does he need to do achieve that? Is it just accolades? Because he?s unlikely to beat out Jocic or SG for MVP? What if, Tatum comes back from injury and is the top 3 of MVP voting for the next several years, maybe grabs a scoring title or even another championship? These are all reasonable expectations for the last 3rd of his career.

is George Gervin a top 30 player all time or even in the discussion for that matter?  Gervin had 4 scoring titles, finished 2nd in MVP 2 times, 3rd once, with a 5th, 6th, 9th, and 11th.  He had 5 straight seasons as 1st team all league and 2 more on the 2nd team, plus 12 all star appearances (3 of those in aba). Less playoff success than Tatum (3 conf finals, but no finals), but far more regular season accolades at this point. 

[Moranis]

I think the Celtics have to look at a different historical data point.


A team built around Tatum and Brown is capable of winning a title.


The front office has shown it is capable of building a team to win a title around Tatum and Brown.   


If Tatum wins another title, doesn't that push him further into the "top 30 of all time" discussion?

it would certainly help, but i do think he has to start being a real MVP candidate.  That is what all those guys are and almost all have actually won a MVP and many have more than 1.  Tatum is 8 years in at this point.  It would have been hard for him to take a leap even without the injury.

[wdleehi]

I think the Celtics have to look at a different historical data point.


A team built around Tatum and Brown is capable of winning a title.


The front office has shown it is capable of building a team to win a title around Tatum and Brown.   


If Tatum wins another title, doesn't that push him further into the "top 30 of all time" discussion?

it would certainly help, but i do think he has to start being a real MVP candidate.  That is what all those guys are and almost all have actually won a MVP and many have more than 1.  Tatum is 8 years in at this point.  It would have been hard for him to take a leap even without the injury.

So Tatum needs a narrative, like returning from injury and leading the Celtics back to the top of the NBA.   

[Birdman]

All other teams forfeit

[Vermont Green]

Jumping back into the discussion.  Tatum as the top dog, the alpha, the Batman, is not in my view up there with Jordan or Magic or Bird or LeBron or others of that tier.  But he is in that next tier in my view with championship players such as Leonard, Curry, Duncan, Pierce/Garnet, and some others.  So in my mind, whether he is or will be top 30 all time or top 40 all time or top 50 all time, is not the point.  To me, he is good enough to win a title if a good enough team is put around him.  All these players needed a good team around them.

Then consider Brown as compared to the #2s these other top players had.  Magic had Kareem, tough to top that.  But is Pippen better than Brown?  How about McHale?  Siakam was the #2 for Leonard.  Tony Parker for Duncan.  Klay Thompson for Curry.  Brown to me is better than the majority of these other #2s.

Tatum+Brown is as good as any of these 1-2 with the exception of Magic+Kareem.  You could argue that because Jordan is much better than Tatum, that Jordan+Pippen is better.  But Tatum+Brown holds up just fine against most of these 1+2 champions.