Author Topic: What it takes to win a title  (Read 60 times)

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What it takes to win a title
« on: Yesterday at 11:27:35 PM »

Offline Moranis

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So I know some on here have heard my top 5 player in the league theory, but I have sort or reevaluated and it really is more top 30 players all time (and as the years continue, it will expand to top 35, then top 40, etc.).

So to start with, you need the top 30 players in history. In 2016, ESPN put out a list.  The top 25 in order were: MJ, Kareem, Lebron, Magic, Wilt, Bird, Russell, Duncan, Shaq, Hakeem, Oscar, Kobe, West, Dr. J, Moses, Mailman, Dirk, Barkley, Stockton, Robinson, KG, Durant, Curry, Baylor, Pippen.  While we can all debate the order, I think those 25 would pretty clearly be in the top 30 players all-time.  At that time ESPN's 26-30 were Isiah, Wade, Hondo, CP3, Nash.  Those are a bit more debatable, but since 2016, I think the only 2 players you could now include would be Giannis and Jokic.  For simplicity, I will bump Paul and Nash and add Giannis and Jokic.  So that is the top 30 players in NBA history.

Starting with Bill's rookie season (since he is the oldest player on that list).  The only champions that do not have one of those players are the following teams.

1958 - St. Louis Hawks (led by Bob Pettit who was 34th on ESPN's list, has 2 MVP's and was 1st team all NBA 10 straight years)
1970 - Knicks (with 4 HOFers in their prime - Frazier (38th), Reed (48th), DeBusscherre (85th), Bradley) 
1973 - Knicks (same 4 HOFers plus Earl the Pearl Monroe (60th) and Jerry Lucas (79th))
1975 - Warriors (Rick Barry (37th))
1977 - Blazers (Bill Walton (42nd))
1978 - Bullets (Hayes (40th), Unseld (53rd), Dandridge)
1979 - Sonics (DJ (84th), Sikma)
2004 - Pistons (Billups 87th, B. Wallace plus Rip, R. Wallace, Okur, Prince)
2019 - Raptors (M. Gasol (95th), Kawhi (he was 33rd in their top 76 list in 2020), plus Siakam, VanVleet, Lowry, Powell, Ibaka)
2024 - Celtics (Tatum, Brown, Holiday, KP, Horford with PP)
2025 - Thunder (SGA well on his way to cracking this sort of list)

So outside of the topsy turvy 70's, when Kareem and Hondo were basically the only top 30 players all time, there haven't exactly been a lot of champions that don't have a top 30 player all time.  So what do those teams have in common?  Other than the Thunder (who are both young and likely to fall off this list as SGA plays more), the other 3 to win a title since the 70's all had incredibly deep teams with multiple HOFers at the top of the lineup (I'm projecting some here).  The Pistons had (at the time), 2 time DPOY Ben, who had 3 top 10 MVP finishes and rising star Chauncy along with cagey vets like Rasheed, Rip, Hunter, Corliss Williamson, and Elden Campbell plus young talented players like Prince and Okur.  The epitome of a deep well coach team, but with immense talent at the top of the roster (especially defensively).

Then you had the 2019 Raptors led by Kawhi, who is a borderline top 30 player, and who already had a Finals MVP, 2 DPOY, and 2 top 3 MVP finishes, plus Gasol who was also a former DPOY, experienced vets like Lowry, Danny Green, and Ibaka, a rising star in Siakam, and other young talented players like VanVleet and Norm Powell. 

And of course our Celtics, with Tatum at the top who was arguably a top 5 player in the sport at the time.  Plus consistent all-star Brown, former champion and future HOFer Holiday, along with White, Porzingis, Horford, and some young talent on the bench (like future 6MOY PP). 

So the reality is depending on what you think of Kawhi and assuming SGA actually gets to that level, since Larry and Magic entered the league there have been just 2 champions that haven't had at least 1 arguable top 30 player all time.  The 04 Pistons and the 24 Celtics (even if you thought Tatum could reach that level, I'm assuming Tatum's injury eliminates him from any shot at reaching it at this point).

You quite simply need those players to win, especially if you want to win more than 1.  If you don't have those type of players, you aren't going to win championships except in very rare situations where you go 5 or 6 deep with multiple HOFers.  So you can build a championship team without a mega franchise player at the top, but you are unlikely to build a multiple title type team without that player.  And frankly many of the champions have more than 1 top 30 player or a top 30 player and multiple top 100 players.  Winning is hard, but you need the mega players to really do it consistently and for a long time.  If you don't have one of those, you need to keep building to get one.

I bring this up because Boston doesn't have a mega player.  They won by having a very deep team with Tatum at his apex.  Given the salary constraints, it will be very difficult for Boston to get back to winning championships, because it will be very difficult to build the depth that the team needs to really compete without the mega star.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 11:43:00 PM by Moranis »
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner