2025 CB Historical Draft - Player Analysis

[snively]

A different look at TS% for Kobe vs Luka

Bball-ref.com has a league adjusted TS+ ranking in their adjusted shooting section. It rates a player's TS% relative to the league average TS% of that season. 100 is average. Below 100 is a negative figure. Above 100 is a positive figure.

Luka Doncic

2019-20 = 104 (2nd season)
2020-21 = 103
2021-22 = 101
2022-23 = 105
2023-24 = 106
2024-25 = 102
Average for 6yr period = 104

Kobe Bryant

2004-05 = 106
2005-06 = 104
2006-07 = 107
2007-08 = 107
2008-09 = 103
2009-10 = 100
Average for 6yr period = 105

Kobe was 104-107 from 1997-08 to 2007-08. An 11 year stretch. 5 of those 11 seasons at 107. 2 seasons each at 106, 105, 104.

Kobe was a much better FT shooter than Luka is.  It greatly affects the TS%.  Look at their eFG%.  For their careers Luka's eFG% thus far is 54.2%.  Kobe for his career was 48.2%.  That is a massive difference.  And it isn't just from 3 where Luka is 35 to Kobe's 32.9, the bigger difference is from 2 where Luka is an elite 55.4%, while Kobe was a subpar 47.9%. 

Kobe was an inefficient chucker.  He took way too many shots, and thus took a lot of bad ones.  And unlike Luka has a poor assist to turnover ratio with 4.7 assists to 3.0 turnovers.  Luka has more turnovers at 3.9, but he also averages a lot more 8.2 assists (plus a lot more rebounds).  Obviously Kobe was a much better defender than Luka was, but offensively they aren't particularly close as players.  Luka is quite simply several tiers higher than Kobe as an offensive player and has the skills to play both off and on the ball.  I get that we've seen him on the ball mostly but that is just because he is better than anyone he's played with (yes including old Lebron).

Luka's eFG fluctuates pretty wildly and his adjusted eFG (for league averages) is pretty close to pre- injury Kobe (post injury KB was the ultimate inefficient chucker).

Luka is definitely the superior passer but assists for wings have undoubtedly inflated in post Kobe years.  Look at Tatum averaging 6 assists last year but collapsing as a playmaker for Team USA playing under slightly different rules.

It's not hard to imagine guys like Kobe and Pierce putting up 7+ apg type numbers in a league that puts scoring wings and even bigs in constant pick and roll actions with 3 deep threats and a lob threat down the middle.

Kobe was an excellent ball handler and passer - much better than guys averaging as many assists as him on paper in the modern era.

[Who]

A different look at TS% for Kobe vs Luka

Bball-ref.com has a league adjusted TS+ ranking in their adjusted shooting section. It rates a player's TS% relative to the league average TS% of that season. 100 is average. Below 100 is a negative figure. Above 100 is a positive figure.

Luka Doncic

2019-20 = 104 (2nd season)
2020-21 = 103
2021-22 = 101
2022-23 = 105
2023-24 = 106
2024-25 = 102
Average for 6yr period = 104

Kobe Bryant

2004-05 = 106
2005-06 = 104
2006-07 = 107
2007-08 = 107
2008-09 = 103
2009-10 = 100
Average for 6yr period = 105

Kobe was 104-107 from 1997-08 to 2007-08. An 11 year stretch. 5 of those 11 seasons at 107. 2 seasons each at 106, 105, 104.

Kobe was a much better FT shooter than Luka is.  It greatly affects the TS%.  Look at their eFG%.  For their careers Luka's eFG% thus far is 54.2%.  Kobe for his career was 48.2%.  That is a massive difference.  And it isn't just from 3 where Luka is 35 to Kobe's 32.9, the bigger difference is from 2 where Luka is an elite 55.4%, while Kobe was a subpar 47.9%. 

Kobe was an inefficient chucker.  He took way too many shots, and thus took a lot of bad ones.  And unlike Luka has a poor assist to turnover ratio with 4.7 assists to 3.0 turnovers.  Luka has more turnovers at 3.9, but he also averages a lot more 8.2 assists (plus a lot more rebounds).  Obviously Kobe was a much better defender than Luka was, but offensively they aren't particularly close as players.  Luka is quite simply several tiers higher than Kobe as an offensive player and has the skills to play both off and on the ball.  I get that we've seen him on the ball mostly but that is just because he is better than anyone he's played with (yes including old Lebron).

Luka's eFG fluctuates pretty wildly and his adjusted eFG (for league averages) is pretty close to pre- injury Kobe (post injury KB was the ultimate inefficient chucker).

Luka is definitely the superior passer but assists for wings have undoubtedly inflated in post Kobe years.  Look at Tatum averaging 6 assists last year but collapsing as a playmaker for Team USA playing under slightly different rules.

It's not hard to imagine guys like Kobe and Pierce putting up 7+ apg type numbers in a league that puts scoring wings and even bigs in constant pick and roll actions with 3 deep threats and a lob threat down the middle.

Kobe was an excellent ball handler and passer - much better than guys averaging as many assists as him on paper in the modern era.

I am surprised how healthy Kobe's TS% is relative to his time period given his reputation. I thought he was much closer to average. In that 100-103 range. Average to slightly above average. He is comfortably above average for that 11 year stretch where he is 104-107. 5 of those 11 seasons at 107.

He both gets (1) not enough appreciation for his scoring efficiency but also (2) more criticism than he is due for it.

The single hardest guy for me to place is Kobe.  I hate his inefficiency. 

Kobe was an inefficient chucker.

Both of which are common comments / sentiments around Kobe in Kobe Bryant discussions.

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I also thought the Kobe vs Luka comparison was interesting to illustrate both Kobe's efficiency and to show how Luka's numbers measure up relative to his era. He is closer to Kobe's level (good efficiency) than elite efficiency. Even slightly below Kobe. Luka has never had a 107 season. Kobe has 5 of them. Luka's peak is 106 and 105. Kobe has 2 of each. That is 9 seasons equal or above Luka's 2 highest seasons.

Provides good context for both players.

[Who]

I had a tough time deciding between D-Wade and Kobe as my top SG in the draft.

I usually side with Kobe over D-Wade because Kobe has the more complete game due to his superior jump-shooting / more versatile scoring arsenal.

I went with Wade as my #1 this time in large part due to the recency bias of watching what SGA just did to this league last season. Similar types of players. Quick penetetrating SG/PG with elite handles and quickness. Only SGA had some limitations that D-Wade did not have. SGA would have to pull out of drives at times because he lacked the physical power to force his way to the basket. SGA also lacked the explosive (and powerful) leaping / finishing ability of D-Wade going to the rim. Those were possessions where Wade would be able to get to the rim more often and do more damage than SGA was. Like SGA+.

So just looking at what SGA did to the NBA this season and imagining what Wade would do in today's league pushed me to edge Wade over Kobe. I don't know if that is correct but that is what I did.

I also thought Wade had an advantage as a team defender with his superior quickness / athleticism. And I loved how Wade was more committed as a playmaker than Kobe was. Such a rare sight back then to see a SG who is getting 7apg.

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Look at this 6 year stretch for Wade from his 2nd season until LeBron joins and pushes him into a 2nd option role.

26.8ppg 7.0apg 5.0rpg 1.9spg 1.0bpg
48.4% FG 77.2% FT 56.8% TS or 105 TS
9.9 FTA against 19.2 FGA for 51.3% FT rate

And that was with Shaq pushing his numbers down those first 2-3 seasons of that 6yr run.

[Jvalin]

Beating a dead horse, aren't we? I've participated in 2 drafts since we finished this one. If anyone is interested in playing more of these games, here's a link for a realgm community hosting fantasy drafts all year long.

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewforum.php?f=340

Latest game concluded yesterday. Next one will likely start in the next few days.

[Moranis]

Again Kobe's TS% is greatly helped by his excellent foul shooting. It is a credit to him, but I dont think it changes his poor efficiency. 

The 2010 Lakers shot 49.2% from 2 as a team, Kobe was 48.7%. In the playoffs, the Lakers shot 50 5% from 2 and Kobe was again 48.7%.  He wasn't even average on his own team.  Now I get his aura opens it up some for others, but when you aren't even team average you can't be considered good at something.  3 point is much worse during the regular season, though Kobe actually shot well from 3 in the playoffs

Kobe was an inefficient chucker, but he got to the line a lot and was a superb foul shooter.  That was his greatest strength as a scorer. Look at the other adjusted categories and you can see this displayed well i.e. 2P+, 3P+, FT+, eFG%+, etc.  He was well below average from 3 and right around average from 2. Given his volume thst makes him an inefficient chucker.

[smokeablount]

Love the engagement!

Teams with MVPs

CLE = LeBron + kinda Shaq
ORL = Duncan
NYK = Nash, Embiid + kinda KG
IND = Jokic
CHI = Kobe (kinda Kobe?)
BOS = Steph, Giannis
OKC = Durant, SGA
MIL = Dirk (+ kinda Dwight)
TOR = none but kinda D-Wade & Kawhi
PHI = Harden

+ Derrick Rose which gives me 3 MVPs

I think one thing that struck me in the voting is the lack of appreciation for game-changers, as opposed to just "great players".

SGA won an MVP this year with a .300 WS/48 which only Curry, LeBron and Jokic did in this timeframe, and won MVP / Scoring title / title / FMVP which only he and Shaq did (Shaq is not at this level here). He is better on D than Shaq, Curry, and Jokic, trailing only peak LBJ.

He isn?t getting shouted out prominently here but I think he?s a top 5 game changer in this format based on these peers. I had him as the #1 SG over Wade who really wasn?t very efficient for his era (51% eFG) and Kobe who I maybe underrated the efficiency of based on what Who shared, but who again who?s eFG is like 50%. SGA is worlds more efficient than them and is a great defender with 2 top 2 MVP finishes in a row which those guys never achieved. I think in 5 years year 1-2 of his peak will be on that level

I was going for efficiency (and defense overall) but interesting that I ended up with 3 of the elite high usage highly efficient scorers in KD, SGA, KAT. The sim likely loves that