2025 CB Historical Draft - Player Analysis

[Roy H.]

I think one thing that struck me in the voting is the lack of appreciation for game-changers, as opposed to just "great players".

It seems like that voters agreed that there were tiers of greatness, but that the difference between those tiers was incremental.  So, for instance, Lebron might be "the best", but the difference between him and Durant wasn't big.  Jokic might be the best big man in the modern era, putting up stats that have never been seen, but he's not even in the top-two of big men.  Steph Curry is great, but he's not that different than Steve Nash. 

And, I just don't think that that's how things work.  Lebron is a dink, but he's led three different franchises to titles because he's just different.  Better.  Kevin Durant never won anything until he joined a 73-win team.  They're not the same.  Steph Curry has won four rings and led his team to the best regular season in history.  Steve Nash never made the NBA Finals, and he was never the scoring option that Curry was (career high 18.8 points).  They're not the same.  Curry and CP3 aren't on the same plain, either.  And, there are guys who didn't do great in the simulation that were absolutely top-tier MVPs, particularly Tim Duncan.  That guy is going to get you 50 wins and title contention just by showing up, and no stats will change my opinion on that.  Some players are just better at winning than others.

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The single hardest guy for me to place is Kobe.  I hate his inefficiency.  I hate his lack of passing in certain situations.  I hate that he gets credit for five titles, when I think that just about any great guard would have won those first three with Shaq.

But, he didn't just win three.  He won five.  And, being the best player for those two additional titles, it's hard to say that he doesn't possess some intangibles (other than the refs in Game 7 of 2010!!!) that add to winning.  How do you evaluate that?

[Who]

I think one thing that struck me in the voting is the lack of appreciation for game-changers, as opposed to just "great players".

Who are the game changers? And why them?

[Roy H.]

I think one thing that struck me in the voting is the lack of appreciation for game-changers, as opposed to just "great players".

Who are the game changers? And why them?

Game changers are the guys who dominate games, even when they're not scoring.  Their presence in a game literally changes it.  They possess something that other star players don't. 

Lebron is the best example.  He's the best player in this league.  He's got credible talent around him.  I don't think there's any way that he finishes sixth.  We've all heard "whoever trades for the best player in a trade wins", and "a quarter is better than three dimes".  It's because those at the tip-top dominate, no matter who their opponents.

I think that Giannis is a game-changer:  he had maybe the best two-way season in this draft.  Curry is a game-changer:  his floor stretching + efficiency is unmatched.  Jokic is a game-changer.  KG and Duncan were game changers in their prime, although it's hard to project how they'd look on the offensive end in the draft.  Further down in the draft, a guy like Ben Wallace was a defensive game changer.  Shaq is on the tail end of being a game-changer in this draft.

If a guy is an MVP winner and finishes top-3 in MVP in multiple other seasons, he'd probably fit game-changer criteria, particularly if he's won a title.  Those guys are just different than other stars.

[Who]

Durant is an interesting one. I see him as more valuable in this setting than in the regular NBA. His strengths enhanced and his weaknesses better hidden.

Durant is a matchup nightmare. 6-10 to 7-0 with length. Shooting skill. One on one shot creation. He is the best scorer in the league for me. High efficiency high volume scoring. Not ball dominant. Can play with anyone. Nobody has an answer for him.

Other guys - even Kobe - have been slowed down more by great individual defenders / great defenses. More so than Durant. Durant has an outlier skill in this draft that separates him from the pack. Even from the other great scorers in this draft.

The main issue with him IRL (in real life) is that Durant doesn't improve the players around him. He doesn't have the playmaking. He is great at looking after himself but only so-so at setting the table for others. Other stars IRL have been able to out-compete him because of this. But in a setting where you are surrounded by stars (rather than one dimensional role players) who can all create and score themselves - as well as putting more playmaking around a guy like Durant to offset this weakness - that weakness can be hidden. Or at least better hidden (and to a large margin).

I see Durant being the outlier talent he is on Team USA as being similar to what he would be in this setting.

[Who]

Teams with MVPs

CLE = LeBron + kinda Shaq
ORL = Duncan
NYK = Nash, Embiid + kinda KG
IND = Jokic
CHI = Kobe (kinda Kobe?)
BOS = Steph, Giannis
OKC = Durant, SGA
MIL = Dirk (+ kinda Dwight)
TOR = none but kinda D-Wade & Kawhi
PHI = Harden

Every team has MVP caliber talent.

Toronto is the only one without an official MVP. D-Wade was at that level. Kawhi was at that level.

Kobe versus kinda Kobe = did he deserve 2008 MVP? Should KG have gotten it?

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MVP + Championship

So CLE has LeBron & Shaq. ORL Duncan. Wipe off Nash and Embiid for NY but keep KG. IND Jokic. CHI Kobe. BOS Giannis & Steph. OKC Durant (kinda - 73 win Warriors, titles before and after him) & SGA. MIL Dirk. TOR both D-Wade and Kawhi won titles as best player on title team. Take off Harden so no-one for PHI.

Pretty much every team has MVPs who have won titles / led their team to titles.

[Roy H.]

Durant is an interesting one. I see him as more valuable in this setting than in the regular NBA. His strengths enhanced and his weaknesses better hidden.

Durant is a matchup nightmare. 6-10 to 7-0 with length. Shooting skill. One on one shot creation. He is the best scorer in the league for me. High efficiency high volume scoring. Not ball dominant. Can play with anyone. Nobody has an answer for him.

Other guys - even Kobe - have been slowed down more by great individual defenders / great defenses. More so than Durant. Durant has an outlier skill in this draft that separates him from the pack. Even from the other great scorers in this draft.

The main issue with him IRL (in real life) is that Durant doesn't improve the players around him. He doesn't have the playmaking. He is great at looking after himself but only so-so at setting the table for others. Other stars IRL have been able to out-compete him because of this. But in a setting where you are surrounded by stars (rather than one dimensional role players) who can all create and score themselves - as well as putting more playmaking around a guy like Durant to offset this weakness - that weakness can be hidden. Or at least better hidden (and to a large margin).

I see Durant being the outlier talent he is on Team USA as being similar to what he would be in this setting.

I see the argument, although there's probably some hyperbole.  Durant meets the off-hand criteria I gave, so he's in the conversation.  But, he's not as dominant a presence as Lebron. 

As far as best pure scorer, 32.0 points on .635% TS% is fantastic.  I think I'd prefer Curry's 30.1 points on .669 TS%, though.  I don't really care about height; Curry can get his shot off against anybody.

Curry was more efficient (better FG%, 3PT%, eFG%, TS% and FT%), and he scored more points per possession and more points per minute.

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And to add to my disdain for my voting results...  If Durant is the best pure scorer at 32.0 / .635% TS%, how far behind is Giannis?  27.7 / .644 TS% while playing the best defense in the NBA, dominating Durant in rebounds, and averaging more assists?  Giannis actually outscored him on a per minute basis, and was more efficient.

[Roy H.]

Teams with MVPs

CLE = LeBron + kinda Shaq
ORL = Duncan
NYK = Nash, Embiid + kinda KG
IND = Jokic
CHI = Kobe (kinda Kobe?)
BOS = Steph, Giannis
OKC = Durant, SGA
MIL = Dirk (+ kinda Dwight)
TOR = none but kinda D-Wade & Kawhi
PHI = Harden

Every team has MVP caliber talent.

Toronto is the only one without an official MVP. D-Wade was at that level. Kawhi was at that level.

Kobe versus kinda Kobe = did he deserve 2008 MVP? Should KG have gotten it?

------------------------

MVP + Championship

So CLE has LeBron & Shaq. ORL Duncan. Wipe off Nash and Embiid for NY but keep KG. IND Jokic. CHI Kobe. BOS Giannis & Steph. OKC Durant (kinda - 73 win Warriors, titles before and after him) & SGA. MIL Dirk. TOR both D-Wade and Kawhi won titles as best player on title team. Take off Harden so no-one for PHI.

Pretty much every team has MVPs who have won titles / led their team to titles.

Are you arguing that there's no hierarchy between MVPs?  That one is as good as another? 

There's a gigantic difference between, let's say, Lebron and Steve Nash.  Between Jokic and 2005 Shaq.  Etc., etc.

[Who]

Teams with MVPs

CLE = LeBron + kinda Shaq
ORL = Duncan
NYK = Nash, Embiid + kinda KG
IND = Jokic
CHI = Kobe (kinda Kobe?)
BOS = Steph, Giannis
OKC = Durant, SGA
MIL = Dirk (+ kinda Dwight)
TOR = none but kinda D-Wade & Kawhi
PHI = Harden

Every team has MVP caliber talent.

Toronto is the only one without an official MVP. D-Wade was at that level. Kawhi was at that level.

Kobe versus kinda Kobe = did he deserve 2008 MVP? Should KG have gotten it?

------------------------

MVP + Championship

So CLE has LeBron & Shaq. ORL Duncan. Wipe off Nash and Embiid for NY but keep KG. IND Jokic. CHI Kobe. BOS Giannis & Steph. OKC Durant (kinda - 73 win Warriors, titles before and after him) & SGA. MIL Dirk. TOR both D-Wade and Kawhi won titles as best player on title team. Take off Harden so no-one for PHI.

Pretty much every team has MVPs who have won titles / led their team to titles.

Are you arguing that there's no hierarchy between MVPs?  That one is as good as another? 

There's a gigantic difference between, let's say, Lebron and Steve Nash.  Between Jokic and 2005 Shaq.  Etc., etc.

What is your heirarchy? Separation tiers?

[snively]

Does Jimmy Butler count as a game changer? No ring, but the two finals runs rank up there with LBJ's doomed solo efforts.

[Roy H.]

Teams with MVPs

CLE = LeBron + kinda Shaq
ORL = Duncan
NYK = Nash, Embiid + kinda KG
IND = Jokic
CHI = Kobe (kinda Kobe?)
BOS = Steph, Giannis
OKC = Durant, SGA
MIL = Dirk (+ kinda Dwight)
TOR = none but kinda D-Wade & Kawhi
PHI = Harden

Every team has MVP caliber talent.

Toronto is the only one without an official MVP. D-Wade was at that level. Kawhi was at that level.

Kobe versus kinda Kobe = did he deserve 2008 MVP? Should KG have gotten it?

------------------------

MVP + Championship

So CLE has LeBron & Shaq. ORL Duncan. Wipe off Nash and Embiid for NY but keep KG. IND Jokic. CHI Kobe. BOS Giannis & Steph. OKC Durant (kinda - 73 win Warriors, titles before and after him) & SGA. MIL Dirk. TOR both D-Wade and Kawhi won titles as best player on title team. Take off Harden so no-one for PHI.

Pretty much every team has MVPs who have won titles / led their team to titles.

Are you arguing that there's no hierarchy between MVPs?  That one is as good as another? 

There's a gigantic difference between, let's say, Lebron and Steve Nash.  Between Jokic and 2005 Shaq.  Etc., etc.

What is your heirarchy? Separation tiers?

1. Lebron
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2. Jokic
3. Curry
4. Giannis
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5. Durant
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6. Luka
7. Duncan

That's how I had it prior to the draft.  I would have ranked Duncan higher if I could have taken an earlier season, and I would have only taken Luka to build around with a very specific set of players.  I would have taken Jokic #1, because I think he would have been more fun and interesting to build around than Lebron, who I've had on multiple other CB teams.

[Who]

I thought the draft order was good at selecting heiarchy / tiers between the best players.

My tiers would be something like this

That is just the MVP guys. Not the other folks. 

Tier One = LeBron, Jokic, KG
Tier Two = Duncan, Durant, Kawhi, D-Wade, Kobe, SGA
Tier Three = Steph, Dirk, Giannis, Dwight, Nash, Shaq, Embiid
Tier Four = Harden

I am not a Harden fan. He is on a tier by himself away from the others.

[Roy H.]

Does Jimmy Butler count as a game changer? No ring, but the two finals runs rank up there with LBJ's doomed solo efforts.

I don't think he does.  I considered him in the 4th, and traded down, just because I don't think his reputation is as good as his production. 

In the ECF against BOS (2020), he averaged 19 points on .443 eFG%.  Then in 2022, he had three series in a row of eFG% of subpar eFG%:  .438, .448, .451

[Who]

1. Lebron
------------
2. Jokic
3. Curry
4. Giannis
-----------------
5. Durant
-----------------
6. Luka
7. Duncan

That's how I had it prior to the draft.  I would have ranked Duncan higher if I could have taken an earlier season, and I would have only taken Luka to build around with a very specific set of players.  I would have taken Jokic #1, because I think he would have been more fun and interesting to build around than Lebron, who I've had on multiple other CB teams.

I am very interesting why you had Luka as high as 6th.

Also, what type of team you were thinking of around him.

[Roy H.]

I thought the draft order was good at selecting heiarchy / tiers between the best players.

My tiers would be something like this

That is just the MVP guys. Not the other folks. 

Tier One = LeBron, Jokic, KG
Tier Two = Duncan, Durant, Kawhi, D-Wade, Kobe, SGA
Tier Three = Steph, Dirk, Giannis, Dwight, Nash, Shaq, Embiid
Tier Four = Harden

I am not a Harden fan. He is on a tier by himself away from the others.

It seems like you're not a Steph or Giannis fan, either, which is strange to me.  Your tiers strike me as odd; to me, Giannis is significantly better than Embiid, and Curry is significantly better than Nash. 

[Who]

I thought the draft order was good at selecting heiarchy / tiers between the best players.

My tiers would be something like this

That is just the MVP guys. Not the other folks. 

Tier One = LeBron, Jokic, KG
Tier Two = Duncan, Durant, Kawhi, D-Wade, Kobe, SGA
Tier Three = Steph, Dirk, Giannis, Dwight, Nash, Shaq, Embiid
Tier Four = Harden

I am not a Harden fan. He is on a tier by himself away from the others.

It seems like you're not a Steph or Giannis fan, either, which is strange to me.  Your tiers strike me as odd; to me, Giannis is significantly better than Embiid, and Curry is significantly better than Nash.

I am not a Giannis fan. I am lower on him than most.

I am a Steph fan.

Although my evaluation - how I am evaluating him and other players is different than where I think you are coming from. It looks to me like you are ranking their individual seasons in real life and making your heiarchy from that. I am rating how I think they would do in this setting and making my heiarchy from that standpoint. So we have quite different results.

I don't view Steph as much of an outlier in this fantasy league because he doesn't have the all-round game that the players in My Tier 1+2 have. He is an offensive force but he is too small to have much impact as a defender or rebounder. So I have Steph below those guys like D-Wade who can impact a game in more ways. That is why I have Steph in Tier 3.