Patriots 2025-26 Season

[Neurotic Guy]

Pats open up as -4.5 point favorites next week on the road

Not much belief in Stidham.

Surprises me. Home field is huge there. Denver defense is very good.  Pats lost to a backup in the SB - let?s hope Stidham doesn?t pull a Foles.

Denver just can?t ask Stidham to do too much. They need to rely on their defense and run game. Jarrett has been with Sean Payton for 3 years, so he should be really comfortable in that offense.

Pats won?t be over confident. And shouldn?t be. Probably a tight game in altitude.

[Vermont Green]

DEN run game?  Check the stats from the BUF game. Their backs had 10 carries for 41 yards.  Pats should be able to stop their run. Force them to pass.

[Phantom255x]

Sean Payton likes to manage the QB similar to what he's done with Bo Nix, so I don't imagine much will change on that end. But unlike Foles, Stidham just hasn't had that much experience on the actual field and he's being thrown into the fire. Foles won some playoff games before going off on us in the SB against a Patricia-defense. I don't think Stidham has actually taken real snaps this season.

I'm sure Vrabel and the defense will scheme some stuff up and confuse Stidham the best they can. Denver's O-Line though is pretty solid, so we might need to hope the secondary can hold up and our linebackers like Spillane can make the tackles.

Ultimately, I do think you can move the ball against Denver and probably put up some points. But the key is literally not turning it over. Maye has honestly been lucky a lot of these fumbles are being recovered, but it could doom them next week even against Stidham. Like the saying goes, "let every drive end with a kick, even if it's a punt". Don't give Stidham and the Broncos free points, make them earn it.

Magic number is probably 23 or 24. I don't see Stidham getting them to more than 21 points but again, if the Pats offense commits multiple turnovers and gives DEN 7+ free points then they could get there.

[Vermont Green]

I agree that the overall approach for DEN does not need to change all that much.  Vs. BUF, Bo Nix had 46 pass attempts and 12 carries.  That is 58 out of a total of 68 plays.  308 yards out of a total of 349 yards.  I expect they will run many of the same passing schemes, Stidham will scramble plenty, and they will try to have running backs run the ball more 10 times.

Knowing this, the Pats need to stop the conventional running game first and foremost.  They should be able to take that off the table.  DEN's OL is good but I think the Pat's D is good enough that if they want to, they can take the running game away.  Stidham can be an efficient passer and can scramble, we all saw that.  He reads the game well, steps up in the pocket well.  He can be "OK", decent, but he is probably not going to make big plays.

What an opportunity for the Pats.  The Pats have been fortunate.  They have been good too, but they have been fortunate.  They need to clean up the turnovers for sure.  5 in 2 playoff games, and could have been more.  It may be that simple.  HOU (1), DEN (2), and LAC (5) were 3 of the best defenses in the regular season (in terms of total yards, 2, 3, and 9 in terms of points).  This game will be nothing new for the Pats.

[Amonkey]

I agree that the overall approach for DEN does not need to change all that much.  Vs. BUF, Bo Nix had 46 pass attempts and 12 carries.  That is 58 out of a total of 68 plays.  308 yards out of a total of 349 yards.  I expect they will run many of the same passing schemes, Stidham will scramble plenty, and they will try to have running backs run the ball more 10 times.

Knowing this, the Pats need to stop the conventional running game first and foremost.  They should be able to take that off the table.  DEN's OL is good but I think the Pat's D is good enough that if they want to, they can take the running game away.  Stidham can be an efficient passer and can scramble, we all saw that.  He reads the game well, steps up in the pocket well.  He can be "OK", decent, but he is probably not going to make big plays.

What an opportunity for the Pats.  The Pats have been fortunate.  They have been good too, but they have been fortunate.  They need to clean up the turnovers for sure.  5 in 2 playoff games, and could have been more.  It may be that simple.  HOU (1), DEN (2), and LAC (5) were 3 of the best defenses in the regular season (in terms of total yards, 2, 3, and 9 in terms of points).  This game will be nothing new for the Pats.

I think playing against a new and unexpected player always has that element of surprise, so for the first half, Denver may have a slight advantage of having the upper hand on what they want to do with Stidham. If the Patriots can stop the run and sustain those surprises, the defense can control the second half of the game.

Maye has been playing against extremely good defenses that pressures the QB the last couple of games. It would be interesting if Maye can have more time and make those throws that we are more used to. If he can do that, perhaps he can control on the offensive side of the ball a little more.

The X factor is the altitude. That may play a big factor of the Patriots. Would they go to Denver extra early to get acclimated?

[Redz]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score. 

[chicagoceltic]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

[Redz]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

Yup
Sam Bam is 1st
Martin is 4th

[chicagoceltic]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

Yup
Sam Bam is 1st
Martin is 4th

I just looked it up and #5 was very surprising.

[Redz]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

Yup
Sam Bam is 1st
Martin is 4th

I just looked it up and #5 was very surprising.

My thoughts exactly!  They just haven?t had a whole lot of rushers stay around a long time.

[Donoghus]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

Yup
Sam Bam is 1st
Martin is 4th

I just looked it up and #5 was very surprising.

My thoughts exactly!  They just haven?t had a whole lot of rushers stay around a long time.

#5 definitely surprised me. Also, nice to see Grogan still in top 20

[Vermont Green]

LeGarrette Blount holds the New England Patriots record for most rushing yards in a single playoff game, gaining 166 yards on 24 carries with four touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts on January 11, 2014

I predict a good game by Stevenson today, but probably not as good as Blount's game in 2024 (166 yards).  His over/under for this game that I saw is 49.5 yards.  Seems like he can get over this, even acknowledging that he spits his carries with Henderson.  If he doesn't get over this, probably not a good sign for the Pats.

Overall, I feel good about the game.  Pats favored, should be winnable, but still need to play well, can't give it away.  The thing with DEN is that they have been a very good team all season but how much of that has to do with Bo Nix?  Some, for sure, but he is not the main reason they are good.  The reaction seems to be overly pessimistic due to losing Nix.  It doesn't make sense unless you think Bo Nix is a top QB.  If you think he is an average QB or less, then losing him should not hurt the team as much.  Sure, Stidham is less than Nix in any case, but this team will still be good.

[Neurotic Guy]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

Yup
Sam Bam is 1st
Martin is 4th

I just looked it up and #5 was very surprising.

My thoughts exactly!  They just haven?t had a whole lot of rushers stay around a long time.

#5 definitely surprised me. Also, nice to see Grogan still in top 20

Where does Kevin Faulk come in. All purpose back but here for a lot of years.

[chicagoceltic]

I randomly found this one while poking around for some other historical Pats stat.  Name me the top 5 all time franchise rushing leaders (regular season only).  No cheatin?!

And GO PATS!

Pats win today.  A lot to a little is my prediction for the score.

Sam "The Bam" Cunningham is one of the first players I remember from the start of my Pats fandom and I believe he is still #1. Hard to believe.

I'm guessing Curtis Martin, despite his short tenure, is in the top 5. The other 3 I would struggle to guess.

Yup
Sam Bam is 1st
Martin is 4th

I just looked it up and #5 was very surprising.

My thoughts exactly!  They just haven?t had a whole lot of rushers stay around a long time.

#5 definitely surprised me. Also, nice to see Grogan still in top 20

Still one of my all-time favorite Patriots.

[Vermont Green]

I was curious what some oddsmakers felt the difference was going from Nix to Stidham:

We opened Patriots -5.5, I would?ve had Patriots -1.5 with Nix starting. To me, this is exactly what was called for, since I feel like the difference is close to 4 points ATS from Nix to Stidham

How much is Bo Nix worth to this line? We probably made him 4.5 to 5.5 points of value, but the market is pricing him closer to 6.

ESPN Bet opened at Pats -4.5 and now sit at Pats -3.5.  So if Nix is worth 4 points  or so, this game would be close to a toss up with Nix playing .  That does not make sense.  Best team all year, harder schedule, playing at home, how is that a toss up?  Just being at home should be 3 points or more.

I don't know what to expect, but I have the Chili and the Heady Topper ready for the game.  It is really amazing that the Pats even have a chance to get to the Super Bowl.  I expect a close game that comes down to a very few key plays/penalty calls/turnovers.  The ESPN predictor says the Pats have a 58.8% chance to win.  I see it as more like 50.00001%.