2025 CBlog Historical Post-Draft Season: Sim & Voting

[Moranis]

Hedo only had 1 other season above 15 ppg (16.8 ) though.  Yes it is a 1 season league, but his best season was a fluke and flukes are not repeatable.  That is why he shouldn't be starting in this.  You can never create the conditions that resulted in that fluke season.  The 7 years he was essentially a starter he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.1 apg, and 4.6 rpg (and that includes the seson used).  Good shooter at 38.4% from 3 on over 4 attempts (which was solid volume when he was in his prime).  That is the type of player that would be great as the backup SF in this. Going to come in, play efficient ball, and not hurt the team.  He just shouldn't be a starter in a 10 team league with 20 years of players to choose from.

[snively]

I have Roy right behind them. His core duo is excellent, but I thought he undershot on some of his supporting cast - I don't think Hedo belongs as a starter in this league and there are too many one-way players in the rotation.

I think the question of who is a starter in this type of league is an interesting one. 

I'll concede that Hedo isn't an "all-time great", but that's not the goal here.  Here's what Hedo did in 2008:

19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 40.0% 3PT%, .576 TS%, 9.0 WS, 3.5 DWS

He's a 6'10" guy that started on multiple #1 defenses, he received DPOY votes, and he made the NBA Finals.

Celtics fans may have erased the man from their memories, but I'll always remember his Game 7 performance against the Celts in 2009 in a road victory:  27 points, 12 assists, 9-for-12 shooting, 4-for-5 3PTs

================================================

For fun:

Hedo: 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 40.0% 3PT%, .524 eFG%, 576 TS%
SF starter in this league: 19.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 39.2% 3PT%, .529 eFG%, .599 TS%

That starter was drafted 22nd; Hedo was picked 59th.  And, as mentioned above, Hedo smoked that guy in Game 7 of the playoffs the following year.

I'll take Paul Pierce over Hedo, but to say one belongs as the starter and the other doesn't isn't really accurate based on the one-season criteria.

I would argue that Rashard Lewis was equally important to that Magic team and didn't even get drafted.

I like Hedo plenty as a player but I rank him at the bottom of the SF starters in this league along with AK (who I would like better at the 4). A quality secondary playmaker and shooter. But that quality isn't all that notable in this league. He doesn't create match-up advantages. And he causes problems defensively with his lack of quickness.

[Roy H.]

Hedo only had 1 other season above 15 ppg (16. though.  Yes it is a 1 season league, but his best season was a fluke and flukes are not repeatable.  That is why he shouldn't be starting in this.  You can never create the conditions that resulted in that fluke season.  The 7 years he was essentially a starter he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.1 apg, and 4.6 rpg.  Good shooter at 38.4% from 3 on over 4 attempts (which was solid volume when he was in his prime).  That is the type of player that would be great as the backup SF in this. Going to come in, play efficient ball, and not hurt the team.  He just shouldn't be a starter in a 10 team league with 20 years of players to choose from.

You may as well throw out the rules if we're not judging based on one season.  But, if we are, we may as well throw out all of the seasons of guys that don't have a long track record.  So, a guy like Wemby?  Fluke.  And a fluke who is playing out of position.   Dyson Daniels?  Fluke. 

But, it wasn't a fluke.  He just had a short peak, followed by him getting a big contract and checking out.  But, in 2008 and 2009 combined, he averaged 18.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 37.9% 3PT%.

People will vote how they vote.  I wouldn't change the Hedo selection.  I'm happy with a 6'10" big who played good defense and who averaged 5.0 assists per game.  Lots of starters in this league are averaging numbers like that:  Pierce, Manu, Horford, Iggy, etc.  And all of those were good picks, because they're efficient, ball-moving guys. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=turkohe01&p1yrfrom=2008&p1yrto=2008&player_id2=piercpa01&p2yrfrom=2008&p2yrto=2008&player_id3=horfoal01&p3yrfrom=2018&p3yrto=2018&player_id4=ginobma01&p4yrfrom=2008&p4yrto=2008&player_id5=iguodan01&p5yrfrom=2014&p5yrto=2014

[Who]

I was disappointed in Hedo at that time when he couldn't reproduce his form from Orlando in Toronto or in Phoenix. Particularly Toronto. As a result, I believe his offensive play at that time is largely down to situation. And that Hedo wouldn't be able to reproduce it elsewhere once he had to share the ball more.

I view Hedo more along the lines of his San Antonio / Sacramento version of himself once he is asked to share the ball more. That you only get Orlando Hedo when the offense is running through him. When he only had to share the ball with Jameer Nelson.

In a setup like this, he has to share the ball. The offense is going to run through Giannis - who I believe to be an awkward player to play with - so Hedo won't be in good position to reproduce Orlando form.

So SAS / SAC version of Hedo is how I am valuing him.

[smokeablount]

Hedo only had 1 other season above 15 ppg (16. though.  Yes it is a 1 season league, but his best season was a fluke and flukes are not repeatable.  That is why he shouldn't be starting in this.  You can never create the conditions that resulted in that fluke season.  The 7 years he was essentially a starter he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.1 apg, and 4.6 rpg.  Good shooter at 38.4% from 3 on over 4 attempts (which was solid volume when he was in his prime).  That is the type of player that would be great as the backup SF in this. Going to come in, play efficient ball, and not hurt the team.  He just shouldn't be a starter in a 10 team league with 20 years of players to choose from.

You may as well throw out the rules if we're not judging based on one season. 

But, it wasn't a fluke.  He just had a short peak, followed by him getting a big contract and checking out.  But, in 2008 and 2009 combined, he averaged 18.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 37.9% 3PT%.

People will vote how they vote.  I wouldn't change the Hedo selection.  I'm happy with a 6'10" big who played good defense and who averaged 5.0 assists per game.  Lots of starters in this league are averaging numbers like that:  Pierce, Manu, Horford, Iggy, etc.  And all of those were good picks, because they're efficient, ball-moving guys. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=turkohe01&p1yrfrom=2008&p1yrto=2008&player_id2=piercpa01&p2yrfrom=2008&p2yrto=2008&player_id3=horfoal01&p3yrfrom=2018&p3yrto=2018&player_id4=ginobma01&p4yrfrom=2008&p4yrto=2008&player_id5=iguodan01&p5yrfrom=2014&p5yrto=2014

I think both of your concerns about each others teams are overblown. I rated both highly

As for Mo?s fit, Luka and LeBron are basketball geniuses who would probably figure it out. I think Luka would be good off ball, there is just no reason to do it a lot. Also LeBron was a peak defender then and as a cutter he would be great. It doesn?t maximize their talents as 2 of the best offensive players of all time, but I don?t think it?s cause for concern on its own.

Every team is dealing with abundant usage and LeBron and Luka aren?t 2 of the guys with particularly limited skillsets and non elite efficiency that would get crunched.

When I did my first one of these 2 years ago with no current players and no top 75 players, that basically meant there were no elite 2 way 3 point shooting high efficiency wings. Like no modern elite wings eligible. So I went with TMac and David Thompson prime seasons with my first 2 picks. I think Vince was the 2nd wing off the board, Mitch Richmond the 4th if you count him, and Paul Westphal was the 5th. They weren?t efficiency mavens but I figured if that is the talent, they are like a one way MJ and Pippen on steroids on one team. With Deron Williams, Larry Nance Sr, and Bob Lanier starting around them and Michael Ray, John Wall, Tayshaun, Brad Daugherty, Blake Griffin, Camby, and Hersey Hawkins on the bench, it would be an elite squad. But I did not finish top 3 and it feels similar to Mo who I had top 4-5 in the 2nd tier

As for Roy, I think his top 2 has the best combination of talent and fit, with SGA/KD right behind and Lillard/Jokic maybe better than both if offense was the only consideration, and I think Roy has arguably the best 4th option in the league in prime Bucks Jrue, while I have arguably the best 3rd option in Klay, and he also has good depth and a solid 4th starter in KP. Amen or Bowen could start over Hedo and the talent wouldn?t be boosted a lot but the weaknesses would dissipate

[Roy H.]

I was disappointed in Hedo at that time when he couldn't reproduce his form from Orlando in Toronto or in Phoenix. Particularly Toronto. As a result, I believe his offensive play at that time is largely down to situation. And that Hedo wouldn't be able to reproduce it elsewhere once he had to share the ball more.

I view Hedo more along the lines of his San Antonio / Sacramento version of himself once he is asked to share the ball more. That you only get Orlando Hedo when the offense is running through him. When he only had to share the ball with Jameer Nelson.

In a setup like this, he has to share the ball. The offense is going to run through Giannis - who I believe to be an awkward player to play with - so Hedo won't be in good position to reproduce Orlando form.

So SAS / SAC version of Hedo is how I am valuing him.

Well, he had to share the ball with Howard, too, who demanded a lot of post touches.  Orlando had a pretty even distribution of usage, with ten rotation players averaging between 16.6% and 24.8% usage.

[Moranis]

Hedo only had 1 other season above 15 ppg (16. though.  Yes it is a 1 season league, but his best season was a fluke and flukes are not repeatable.  That is why he shouldn't be starting in this.  You can never create the conditions that resulted in that fluke season.  The 7 years he was essentially a starter he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.1 apg, and 4.6 rpg.  Good shooter at 38.4% from 3 on over 4 attempts (which was solid volume when he was in his prime).  That is the type of player that would be great as the backup SF in this. Going to come in, play efficient ball, and not hurt the team.  He just shouldn't be a starter in a 10 team league with 20 years of players to choose from.

You may as well throw out the rules if we're not judging based on one season.  But, if we are, we may as well throw out all of the seasons of guys that don't have a long track record.  So, a guy like Wemby?  Fluke.  And a fluke who is playing out of position.   Dyson Daniels?  Fluke. 

But, it wasn't a fluke.  He just had a short peak, followed by him getting a big contract and checking out.  But, in 2008 and 2009 combined, he averaged 18.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 37.9% 3PT%.

People will vote how they vote.  I wouldn't change the Hedo selection.  I'm happy with a 6'10" big who played good defense and who averaged 5.0 assists per game.  Lots of starters in this league are averaging numbers like that:  Pierce, Manu, Horford, Iggy, etc.  And all of those were good picks, because they're efficient, ball-moving guys. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=turkohe01&p1yrfrom=2008&p1yrto=2008&player_id2=piercpa01&p2yrfrom=2008&p2yrto=2008&player_id3=horfoal01&p3yrfrom=2018&p3yrto=2018&player_id4=ginobma01&p4yrfrom=2008&p4yrto=2008&player_id5=iguodan01&p5yrfrom=2014&p5yrto=2014

I have always said full careers matter even when you pick just a single season.  I said that during the draft and used a guy like Tiny Archibald as an example.  It'll you want to use Tiny's 34/11 season, you have to create a team that would maximize his skill set and create the conditions that existed in Kansas City to get full credit for that i.e. a team where Sam Lacey is the 2nd leading scorer. 

I don't think you can replicate the conditions on Orlando that led to Hedo having those numbers for basically the reason Who described.  I think he is much more likely a 13 ppg 3 point shooter in this.  Good efficiency just really low volume.

As for young guys, that is up to the voter on whether or not they think Wemby's 1st seadon was a fluke or just the start of his career.  Same thing with Daniels. Is his elite defense a fluke or just the start of his career. As for his position he played PG in NO, though was mostly a SG in ATL either way he is a bench guy playing 15 mpg or so in this.  Seems like a weird complaint and a whole bunch of what about ism. 

[Roy H.]

I have Roy right behind them. His core duo is excellent, but I thought he undershot on some of his supporting cast - I don't think Hedo belongs as a starter in this league and there are too many one-way players in the rotation.

I think the question of who is a starter in this type of league is an interesting one. 

I'll concede that Hedo isn't an "all-time great", but that's not the goal here.  Here's what Hedo did in 2008:

19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 40.0% 3PT%, .576 TS%, 9.0 WS, 3.5 DWS

He's a 6'10" guy that started on multiple #1 defenses, he received DPOY votes, and he made the NBA Finals.

Celtics fans may have erased the man from their memories, but I'll always remember his Game 7 performance against the Celts in 2009 in a road victory:  27 points, 12 assists, 9-for-12 shooting, 4-for-5 3PTs

================================================

For fun:

Hedo: 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 40.0% 3PT%, .524 eFG%, 576 TS%
SF starter in this league: 19.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 39.2% 3PT%, .529 eFG%, .599 TS%

That starter was drafted 22nd; Hedo was picked 59th.  And, as mentioned above, Hedo smoked that guy in Game 7 of the playoffs the following year.

I'll take Paul Pierce over Hedo, but to say one belongs as the starter and the other doesn't isn't really accurate based on the one-season criteria.

I would argue that Rashard Lewis was equally important to that Magic team and didn't even get drafted.

I like Hedo plenty as a player but I rank him at the bottom of the SF starters in this league along with AK (who I would like better at the 4). A quality secondary playmaker and shooter. But that quality isn't all that notable in this league. He doesn't create match-up advantages. And he causes problems defensively with his lack of quickness.

Well, most fifth starters probably won't, but Hedo's size and passing ability out of the post would create enough of a matchup problem. 

Want to watch a really boring video highlighting how skilled he was?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PA1HWVcGzdE

[Roy H.]

Hedo only had 1 other season above 15 ppg (16. though.  Yes it is a 1 season league, but his best season was a fluke and flukes are not repeatable.  That is why he shouldn't be starting in this.  You can never create the conditions that resulted in that fluke season.  The 7 years he was essentially a starter he averaged 14.1 ppg, 4.1 apg, and 4.6 rpg.  Good shooter at 38.4% from 3 on over 4 attempts (which was solid volume when he was in his prime).  That is the type of player that would be great as the backup SF in this. Going to come in, play efficient ball, and not hurt the team.  He just shouldn't be a starter in a 10 team league with 20 years of players to choose from.

You may as well throw out the rules if we're not judging based on one season.  But, if we are, we may as well throw out all of the seasons of guys that don't have a long track record.  So, a guy like Wemby?  Fluke.  And a fluke who is playing out of position.   Dyson Daniels?  Fluke. 

But, it wasn't a fluke.  He just had a short peak, followed by him getting a big contract and checking out.  But, in 2008 and 2009 combined, he averaged 18.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 37.9% 3PT%.

People will vote how they vote.  I wouldn't change the Hedo selection.  I'm happy with a 6'10" big who played good defense and who averaged 5.0 assists per game.  Lots of starters in this league are averaging numbers like that:  Pierce, Manu, Horford, Iggy, etc.  And all of those were good picks, because they're efficient, ball-moving guys. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=turkohe01&p1yrfrom=2008&p1yrto=2008&player_id2=piercpa01&p2yrfrom=2008&p2yrto=2008&player_id3=horfoal01&p3yrfrom=2018&p3yrto=2018&player_id4=ginobma01&p4yrfrom=2008&p4yrto=2008&player_id5=iguodan01&p5yrfrom=2014&p5yrto=2014

I have always said full careers matter even when you pick just a single season.  I said that during the draft and used a guy like Tiny Archibald as an example.  It'll you want to use Tiny's 34/11 season, you have to create a team that would maximize his skill set and create the conditions that existed in Kansas City to get full credit for that i.e. a team where Sam Lacey is the 2nd leading scorer. 

I don't think you can replicate the conditions on Orlando that led to Hedo having those numbers for basically the reason Who described.  I think he is much more likely a 13 ppg 3 point shooter in this.  Good efficiency just really low volume.

As for young guys, that is up to the voter on whether or not they think Wemby's 1st seadon was a fluke or just the start of his career.  Same thing with Daniels. Is his elite defense a fluke or just the start of his career. As for his position he played PG in NO, though was mostly a SG in ATL either way he is a bench guy playing 15 mpg or so in this.  Seems like a weird complaint and a whole bunch of what about ism.

Wemby is the one playing out of position.  According to tracking data, in his career he's played exactly 0% of his minutes at PF.

[Who]

I'm going to share my thoughts on each roster because there's no fun on keeping them private

.....

I liked Snively's synopsis of how he viewed the teams. I will try to do the same.

I had OKC at the top. I loved their small ball options with Durant at PF. Their big ball was solid and allowed them to compete against big teams but their small ball lineups is where I saw them winning games. I viewed their SGA / Durant duo as one of the best if not the best duo in the league. Strong depth. Lots of interchangeability and variety of lineups / matchups.

I went with Indiana and Jokic next. I loved the SG-SF-PF options next to Jokic. Very strong bench. Likely the best offensive team in competition. I went with them 2nd because I don't think their defense is as strong with Jokic / Lillard. So I gave OKC the edge.

Chicago and Orlando were close to one another. Ultimately, I gave Chicago the edge because I preferred their bench. I loved Orlando's starting 5 but I wasn't sold on the bench.

I loved Milwaukee's starters SG through C. I did not like their PGs (fit for T Parker, talent for A Miller). I liked their backup big men. Not wild about their backup wings. I thought MIL's four main starters were as strong as anyone's top 4 in the league. They dropped because I wasn't sure about the supporting cast. Similar to Orlando and their starting 5. I gave ORL the edge for that 5th starting piece.

I went Toronto next. I loved the Kawhi / D-Wade duo. Another candidate for best duo in the competition. I liked their supporting pieces (Marion, M Gasol, Lowry) but didn't love them. Same with the bench - liked but didn't love it. I think Snively had it right when he said a bit more firepower in terms of top talent to help Kawhi & D-Wade. A bit less role players. Not as much firepower as some other teams above them.

I had a tough time with Cleveland and Boston. I found Cleveland in particular to be a tough squad to figure out. I don't feel comfortable with my rankings of either team but ultimately I was just more solid / certain about the teams I had ahead of them. Hence the order.

Several unorthodox (but exciting) decisions such as (1) LeBron / Luka partnership (2) no PG, no small guard, no two guard. (3) Three forwards and two centers. (4) Wemby and Shaq together. And then a strange mix on the bench. A couple of pieces I loved (Melo, D Mitchell) and some I wasn't sold on (Dyson Daniels, G Wallace). I had a tough time figuring out how all these pieces would work together. Certainly a talented team.

I liked the top two in Boston with Steph and Giannis. I wasn't sold on the other 3 starters. I thought it left the team short-handed. I can see a case for Porzingis being better in Boston than anywhere else due to his superb fit with Giannis but I am not sure how much that changes things. I loved E Brand & Vic Oladipo on the bench.

Philly I had a tough time with Harden next to the PGs. I like putting finishers next to playmakers. I believe Harden works best with guys who make shots. That is no Rondo. Likewise, I think the PGs work best with wings who make shots. Harden can do that but he is at his best when he controls the offense. AK47 is another guy who struggles to make shots. Not a good fit for the guards. So fit was the issue here rather than talent. I liked AD & Amare next to Harden. I thought those 3 guys would work well together. K-Love, B Griffin & Peja were good bench pieces. I would start Peja ahead of AK47.

[Roy H.]

I had a tough time with Cleveland and Boston. I found Cleveland in particular to be a tough squad to figure out. I don't feel comfortable with my rankings of either team but ultimately I was just more solid / certain about the teams I had ahead of them. Hence the order.

8th?  I suddenly feel like Sydney Sweeney being called "ugly without makeup" by a bunch of angry hipsters.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/media/article-14973271/rachel-bitecofer-syndey-sweeney-butterface.html

[smokeablount]

We are now only waiting on 1 ballot!

[Who]

Wemby is the one playing out of position.  According to tracking data, in his career he's played exactly 0% of his minutes at PF.

Wemby is a guy I had a tough time with.

He shot only 32.5% from 3 as a rookie. Every team will be doubling off of him and trying to funnel the ball to him at the three point line in order to keep it away from LeBron, Shaq, Luka. I wasn't sold on how well WEmby could exploit that.

I thought Wemby would get bullied at center in this competition. I liked the idea of switching him to PF.

When Wemby played PF next to Gobert in the Olympics, it worked great defensively but it was a struggle offensively. As the tournament went on they used it less and less. They couldn't create quality offense with it. Their best combo was Wemby / Yabu. Wemby was just more comfortable at center. More comfortable alongside a skilled perimeter big man.

I don't know how well Wemby will work at PF when Shaq is clogging the paint and Luka / LeBron want driving lanes open for them. LeBron struggled in Cleveland with Shaq because he had PFs who couldn't make shots (Varejao, B Wallace, JJ Hickson) so the paint was clogged with two paint-only big men. Wemby isn't that but he also wasn't a perimeter marksman either. Not in his rookie year.

Wemby's defensive impact will help but I am not sure to what degree. Defending a different spot. Different types of threats. Playing more in open space. Having to get low and slide his feet more often. Maybe it works great. Maybe it only works good.

Shaq & Luka are two slow footed defenders to compensate for / that Wemby needs to cover for. LeBron is awesome. Jaylen is an awesome 1on1 SF defender but he will be asked to defend PGs here. Tough assignment for Jaylen. I wasn't sure about that. And then the question is how much does Wemby protect that? I wasn't sure what the answer to that was.

It is also why I loved Melo & Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell gives them a true small guard defender. Melo gives them a guy who can reliably make jump-shots and space the floor. I thought both of these guys would be more important to the team's success than Wemby.

[snively]

I was disappointed in Hedo at that time when he couldn't reproduce his form from Orlando in Toronto or in Phoenix. Particularly Toronto. As a result, I believe his offensive play at that time is largely down to situation. And that Hedo wouldn't be able to reproduce it elsewhere once he had to share the ball more.

I view Hedo more along the lines of his San Antonio / Sacramento version of himself once he is asked to share the ball more. That you only get Orlando Hedo when the offense is running through him. When he only had to share the ball with Jameer Nelson.

In a setup like this, he has to share the ball. The offense is going to run through Giannis - who I believe to be an awkward player to play with - so Hedo won't be in good position to reproduce Orlando form.

So SAS / SAC version of Hedo is how I am valuing him.

Well, he had to share the ball with Howard, too, who demanded a lot of post touches.  Orlando had a pretty even distribution of usage, with ten rotation players averaging between 16.6% and 24.8% usage.

Giannis likes to handle from the perimeter though and he's perpetually near the top of the league in usage. You'd want to max Curry's usage too. I see a Hedo as a distant third in usage with the starters, not the primary wing option he was with Orlando.

[Roy H.]

I was disappointed in Hedo at that time when he couldn't reproduce his form from Orlando in Toronto or in Phoenix. Particularly Toronto. As a result, I believe his offensive play at that time is largely down to situation. And that Hedo wouldn't be able to reproduce it elsewhere once he had to share the ball more.

I view Hedo more along the lines of his San Antonio / Sacramento version of himself once he is asked to share the ball more. That you only get Orlando Hedo when the offense is running through him. When he only had to share the ball with Jameer Nelson.

In a setup like this, he has to share the ball. The offense is going to run through Giannis - who I believe to be an awkward player to play with - so Hedo won't be in good position to reproduce Orlando form.

So SAS / SAC version of Hedo is how I am valuing him.

Well, he had to share the ball with Howard, too, who demanded a lot of post touches.  Orlando had a pretty even distribution of usage, with ten rotation players averaging between 16.6% and 24.8% usage.

Giannis likes to handle from the perimeter though and he's perpetually near the top of the league in usage. You'd want to max Curry's usage too. I see a Hedo as a distant third in usage with the starters, not the primary wing option he was with Orlando.

Sure.  He'll touch the ball less.  Nobody's stats are going to stay the same.  But, it's not like a player loses his skills.  A 6'10" guy who can score, pass, etc., is always going to be useful in a lineup.