Why my team beats this other team would be a fun exercise... I'm ready to embrace total intellectual dishonesty in defense of my squad.
Toward this end... I officially throw down my gauntlet. Any GM can issue me a challenge by writing why your team beats mine, and I'll respond in kind.
Bulls v Celtics
Starters:
PG: Chauncey v Steph
SG: Kobe v. Jrue
SF: Jimmy v Hedo
PF: Al v Giannis
C: Yao v Porzingis
Bench
PG: D-Will v Brunson
SG: Eric Gordon v Dipo
SF: Granger v Amen Thompson
PF: Zion v Brand
C: Pau v DeAndre Jordan
Offensively I concede a spacing advantage to the Celts. Lots of shooting to give Giannis a lot of room to attack either in iso or off 2-man actions. Plus Porzingis poses problems for Yao as a legit stretch big. But I think the Bulls would be capable of stifling even so potent an offense just as the 2009 Lakers muzzled the 4-out + Dwight Magic (holding them to 10 below their season offensive rating). Even with Rashard Lewis raining 3s on the Lakers twin towers, the Lakers dominated by shutting down Howard.
I think the Bulls pose a similar problem for Giannis - who would face one of his most daunting man defenders in Al plus the overwhelming size of Yao in the paint (or Pau off the bench). Further the speed, tenacity and defensive instincts of the Bulls perimeter trio would prey heavily on Giannis' drives and kickouts, turning him over heavily.
Steph of course poses another set of problems but the Bulls are well equipped here too. Use the Cavs strategy of beating him up on both ends which Billups/Kobe/Butler group do exceptionally well (and beefy bench guards D-Will and Gordon can also do). As for the Jrue/Hedo/Porzingis trio, the Bulls are happy to shift the offensive burden to them, trusting that they will not be able to outproduce their counterparts.
Offensively, the Bulls have numerous areas to feast. While Jrue/Giannis can cover a lot of ground, the C's are vulnerable in several areas. Curry has to deal with prime Billups - a physical load for any slight PG - and would suffer very badly in any switch. Hedo is very poorly equipped to handle Jimmy Butler. And both Giannis and Porzingis would struggle mightily with Yao. They can try packing the paint, but the skill level of the big men and the proficiency of the entire team from mid-range means it won't be enough.
Off the bench, the Bulls enjoy a tremendous advantage in firepower. Every single Bulls bench player is a bonafide 20+ppg threat that operates from different parts of the floor. The C's on the other hand struggle with spacing issues with the Amen/Brand/DAJ frontcourt allowing the Bulls to key in their perimeter duo. I trust D-Will to exploit his own mismatch and get Zion going against Brand as well.
I expect the C's to steal a game or 2 in a playoff series thanks to their shooting prowess but to succumb to the Bulls onslaught of power, physicality, skill and size.
Fair play. Let me see how I can do here, with 11 minutes on the clock before I have to leave work.
I certainly respect power, physicality, skill and size. It's what my team is built on. But, two areas the Bulls can't keep up: spacing.
The Celtics offense isn't a 4-out, 1-in like the 2009 Magic. That squad made 10.0 3PTs per game. Steph makes over 5.0 per game on his own, and makes them from 27 feet.
Kobe's eFG% in 2008 was .503. We all remember the Finals in 2008: .439 eFG%. That's just not comparable to the efficiency that my entire roster is putting up.
And, Giannis isn't Dwight. He can dribble. He can pass. He can dunk after taking three dribbles from half-court.
Pacing and spacing is what we do. And, all five starters have been key pieces on top-3 defenses.
I've got to run, unfortunately, but more later. I'd like to get into some of the individual matchups. One interesting one: Kobe played Jrue Holiday 10 times in their career. He only outscored Jrue by nine points per game, while averaging a worse FG%, 3PT%, and eFG%. If my 3rd / 4th option is limiting Kobe, it's going to be an uphill battle for Chicago!
Alright, now that I have less time pressure, I'm going to give this a go.
Why Boston beats Chicago:
1. Boston uniquely attacks Chicago's defense
Giannis drives the ball more than any player in the NBA, and he does so on extremely high efficiency. He drives to score, and he drives to pass. Here, there's no good way to double-team Giannis, because he's surrounded by four starters who can all hit the three at both volume and high efficiency.
And, Yao isn't going to be a major factor in stopping Giannis. Yao's defenses was largely predicated on being huge, but he was never particularly mobile. He never made an All-Defense team, and only once placed in DPOY voting, finishing 24th. He also was a fouling machine, finishing in the top-10 in personal fouls three times. So, it's pick your poison: Yao can stay at home in the paint, trying to divert Giannis drives. If he does so, KP is open on the perimeter for a 40% 3PT shot. If Yao covers KP, then Giannis is 1-on-1 with Horford.
But, Giannis attacking the defense isn't the only weapon Boston has. They've also got four-time champion Steph Curry, who can hit from anywhere within the halfcourt line. Chauncey was a great defender; Chauncey can't contain a guy who can hit from anywhere on the court, with no space between him and his defender. Steph is also a clever passer and driver. He essentially has to be covered one on one, and he's killing whatever defender he has.
The rest of the starting lineup is made up of a 6'10" NBA finalist who shoots 40% from 3PT and averages five assists per game. He can post up or shoot from outside. I mentioned KP, but he can post up or shoot from outside, as well, and does both extremely efficiently. In fact, KP led the NBA in points per possession on post-ups, and he led the league in drawing fouls on post ups, as well.
Chicago won't score efficiently on Boston
I referenced Jrue on Kobe, but I'll reiterate: we want Kobe chucking up as many shots as possible. He had great athleticism and beautiful moves that allowed him to take shots nobody else could get off at the time. (Now, everybody seems to have that repertoire, particularly the inefficient fadeaway). The problem with Kobe is, he missed more than he made. You could get away with that (somewhat) when teams were scoring in the 80s and 90s. In the modern game, he would be one of the less efficient volume scorers in the league.
Not to belabor my point, but the *least* efficient guy on my team had a .524 eFG%. I'm not just talking starters, that's everybody from 1 to 12. Kobe was a .503.
Of course, hand-in-hand with efficiency is spacing. Chicago struggles here. Their starting big men combine for 1.3 3PTs per game. Kobe makes 1.8; Jimmy Butler makes 0.6. Chauncey makes 1.8. The entire Chicago starting lineup makes 5.5 3PTs per game. Curry makes 5.0 on his own.
A team can't win in the modern NBA without shooting from outside, and it's going to kill the Bulls. And, the bench doesn't help; Deron (1.0) + Pau (0.0) + Zion (0.2) don't space at all, and Gordon (.504 eFG%) does so inefficiently.
Chicago will be "clogging the lane" on offense, allowing Boston to send a lot of very big bodies at them. KP protects the paint; Giannis gets to roam, Jrue pressures Kobe into bad shots, Hedo uses his size and fundamental defense (multiple #1 NBA defenses as a starter; DPOY votes) to disrupt Jimmy. Steph Curry is a smart, fundamentally sound defender. Chauncey doesn't have the speed to blow by him. I'll concede that Chauncey is stronger, but that's not going to pressure the defense. Chauncey could try to post Curry, but there just aren't good options on the perimeter to pass out of the post
1. Chicago's actually one of the best suited teams to guard Giannis. Al in single coverage with Jimmy/Kobe digging when he commits or picking off his passes is a recipe for inefficient offense. Yes Giannis will still get his, but I think his efficiency will be sub-optimal. I think his 22 playoff showing against the real Cs is an example - gaudy numbers (33/15/7) but with poor efficiency (52TS%, 5 turnovers a game).
2. Your spacing reasoning is deeply flawed. Numbers of 3s are not a good metric of spacing. Are you seriously arguing that prime Deron Williams doesn't space the floor? Billups an elite shooter. Al a legit stretch big. Kobe on the streaky side but a solid 36% on good volume in his year in this league. Butler is the problem here as a reluctant deep shooter, but this isn't Rondo. He's a mid-range assassin and very capable of making plays off the catch other than shooting 3s . Then either Yao or Pau are very capable from mid-range - both provide more spacing than Giannis.
The Bulls bench meanwhile is well-stocked with shooters - noticed you didn't say anything about Granger (who would get plenty of run with the starters)! D-Will and Gordon are both strong shooters to boot. Plus another elite shooter in Gallo getting situational small ball minutes.
The spacing problems are actually more significant for the Celtics. Curry is amazing, but he's only one man. Hedo is solid, albeit not a true bomber. Jrue is a good shooter generally but prone to terrible, team-breaking cold streaks. Porzingis is great... but you've got him for 20 mpg.
Then you've got multiple zero-spacing guys as a key parts of your rotation. In Giannis' case the problem is even more pronounced because you've got him playing more than a third of his minutes at the wing. Add that to the 16mpg you're giving brickmaster Amen Thompson there, and more than half the game you are getting zero spacing from the small forward position.
These problems are compounded by DAJ's presence in the middle and the lack of legit perimeter threat among any of your bench bigs. I think the Bulls' 34 minutes of Al/Gallo trumps 20 minutes of Porzingis in terms of net spacing.
3. Finally, you have not convincingly addressed your defensive weaknesses. Curry will have major problems against the Bulls. Billups size is not just a factor in post-ups. He gave Rondo so many problems just by getting a shoulder past him and riding him all over the floor - the power/bulk gives him a big advantage over Curry on drives. Further, Billups' gravity as a pull-up shot maker will also put Curry in situations where he will either have to consistently fight through screens (he won't be able to hide on anyone else) or force switches, where he will be punished mercilessly. He will get beaten up by D-Will too, who always feasted on lighter guards.
I think Jrue will do just fine on Kobe, but Kobe is more than capable of passing the ball when he's got good teammates with good matchups, which is not just Billups/Curry but Jimmy/Hedo. And I'm sorry, but Hedo is in a very bad way dealing with Jimmy. Consider what 22/23 Jimmy did to the Bucks in the playoffs. That version of Middleton was similarly compromised in quickness but offered length and savvy. And that (even with help from Jrue and Giannis) held Jimmy to 38/6/5 on 67% TS. I'm confident that Jimmy would destroy Hedo.
There's also unaddressed problems with D-Will and Zion, as well as Yao (who admittedly would get a quick hook against Porzingis but still could see minutes against DAJ or Brand). Brunson can't guard any of the Bulls guards. No one on the bench can guard Zion. I don't think DAJ does all that well against Yao either.
Topic: 25 CBlog Post-Draft: Voting, Sim (Read 24040 times)