Celtics Long Term Strategy

[slightly biased bias fan]

I am very curious what Brad Stevens and the rest of the Celtics front office have planned to theoretically become NBA champions again in 2026-27.

Obviously going forward, the team will have their planned core of Tatum, Brown & White. But what gets the team over the line compared to last season? They will not have any significant cap room to sign a major free agent in 2026 and no real tradable assets outside of the core three.

[Goldstar88]

Brad better start drafting better. That?s for sure.

[slightly biased bias fan]

Brad better start drafting better. That?s for sure.

Even if Stevens does draft better, rookies do not win you championships. That is what perplexes me so much.

The Celtics will be too strong to have a shot at a top 3 pick in next years draft, not enough cap flexibility to sign a star free agent and not enough expendable assets to trade for another star role player like Jrue Holiday.

[slightly biased bias fan]

I do not see how the Celtics could make a play for Giannis next season either.

Besides Jaylen Brown, Stevens does not have much more to offer Milwaukee due to the Celtics owing a 2028 first round swap to San Antonio & their 2029 first to Portland.

[Neurotic Guy]

I do not see how the Celtics could make a play for Giannis next season either.

Besides Jaylen Brown, Stevens does not have much more to offer Milwaukee due to the Celtics owing a 2028 first round swap to San Antonio & their 2029 first to Portland.

In reference to your post above this one, you are correct about the challenge and the dismal reality but I do have faith in CBS and I think he is going to find a way to field a contender after this season.

I completely agree that JB doesn?t provide ammunition to get Giannis unless the Bucks have an immediate answer for how to land a top ten player. Getting future considerations plus JB from the Cs does nothing for the Bucks who will either be all in trading for the future or all in trading for the present.  Celtics don?t give them either.

[Goldstar88]

Brad better start drafting better. That?s for sure.

Even if Stevens does draft better, rookies do not win you championships. That is what perplexes me so much.

The Celtics will be too strong to have a shot at a top 3 pick in next years draft, not enough cap flexibility to sign a star free agent and not enough expendable assets to trade for another star role player like Jrue Holiday.

I?m not just talking about next year. The thread title is Celtics long term strategy. In general, he needs to draft better. Look at the haul Memphis just got for Desmond Bane who was taken 30th overall. He was a rotation player as a rookie and was averaging 18ppg his second year. D-White was taken 29th overall. He was a rotation player by year 2, averaging 10pts/4reb/4ast. The Celtics have their core with JT, JB and White. With the new CBA it will be crucial to find pieces in the draft to build the roster. Also gives you trade chips.

[Vermont Green]

I agree that this is a tough question.  There is no clear plan or path other than put the best team you can around Tatum, Brown, and White, without going over the second apron and see how it goes in 2026-27.   Teams that have both stars and a stable of good players on rookie contracts have an advantage for now but all teams are going to be in the same position soon enough.  I like our core 3.  This core 3 will be better than most if not all other core 3s.  That is a good place to start.

Step 1 of the plan, as I see it is get the salary back under control.  That is what has been going on.  I see step 2 as seeing what we have in Simons.  Is he part of the core moving forward or just trade bait?  If trade bait (which I see as more likely) how can we maximize the return from him.  Step 3 is the 2026 first round pick.  Use it?  Trade it?  In either case, we can't miss on that.  Need to get a good player out of it either way.  Step 4, 5, 6 and so on is to assess the other current players and see if any of them can be part of the core moving forward.

Then, based on all that, see how it goes in 2026-27.  If you don't like how it looks in 2026-27, then you start thinking about things like trading Brown and so on.  That would be my plan anyway.

[slightly biased bias fan]

I agree that this is a tough question.  There is no clear plan or path other than put the best team you can around Tatum, Brown, and White, without going over the second apron and see how it goes in 2026-27.   Teams that have both stars and a stable of good players on rookie contracts have an advantage for now but all teams are going to be in the same position soon enough.  I like our core 3.  This core 3 will be better than most if not all other core 3s.  That is a good place to start.

Step 1 of the plan, as I see it is get the salary back under control.  That is what has been going on.  I see step 2 as seeing what we have in Simons.  Is he part of the core moving forward or just trade bait?  If trade bait (which I see as more likely) how can we maximize the return from him.  Step 3 is the 2026 first round pick.  Use it?  Trade it?  In either case, we can't miss on that.  Need to get a good player out of it either way.  Step 4, 5, 6 and so on is to assess the other current players and see if any of them can be part of the core moving forward.

Then, based on all that, see how it goes in 2026-27.  If you don't like how it looks in 2026-27, then you start thinking about things like trading Brown and so on.  That would be my plan anyway.

I agree with you, it sounds like that is what Celtics management is trying to do.

I worry that is too conservative of an approach. I think the Celtics will rue not approaching Dallas for Flagg & not having a high draft pick in the 2026 draft.

If the Celtics have a wait and see approach for 2026-27 season, the strongest prospects will all be gone and you can ask teams like Portland, Washington & New Orleans how the wait and see model has turned out.

If the Celtics had more draft capital and strong young prospects like in 2007, I would completely agree that is the best approach, but currently the cupboards are quite bare.

Remember Stevens needs to replace Porzingis, Holiday & Horford with little cap room & very few available draft picks.

[Vermont Green]

I agree that this is a tough question.  There is no clear plan or path other than put the best team you can around Tatum, Brown, and White, without going over the second apron and see how it goes in 2026-27.   Teams that have both stars and a stable of good players on rookie contracts have an advantage for now but all teams are going to be in the same position soon enough.  I like our core 3.  This core 3 will be better than most if not all other core 3s.  That is a good place to start.

Step 1 of the plan, as I see it is get the salary back under control.  That is what has been going on.  I see step 2 as seeing what we have in Simons.  Is he part of the core moving forward or just trade bait?  If trade bait (which I see as more likely) how can we maximize the return from him.  Step 3 is the 2026 first round pick.  Use it?  Trade it?  In either case, we can't miss on that.  Need to get a good player out of it either way.  Step 4, 5, 6 and so on is to assess the other current players and see if any of them can be part of the core moving forward.

Then, based on all that, see how it goes in 2026-27.  If you don't like how it looks in 2026-27, then you start thinking about things like trading Brown and so on.  That would be my plan anyway.

I agree with you, it sounds like that is what Celtics management is trying to do.

I worry that is too conservative of an approach. I think the Celtics will rue not approaching Dallas for Flagg & not having a high draft pick in the 2026 draft.

If the Celtics have a wait and see approach for 2026-27 season, the strongest prospects will all be gone and you can ask teams like Portland, Washington & New Orleans how the wait and see model has turned out.

If the Celtics had more draft capital and strong young prospects like in 2007, I would completely agree that is the best approach, but currently the cupboards are quite bare.

Remember Stevens needs to replace Porzingis, Holiday & Horford with little cap room & very few available draft picks.

How do you know they didn't approach DAL on Flagg? What trade exactly do you think could have gotten Flagg?  I would not have been opposed to brining in Flagg but I doubt he was available.

And the Celtics will likely have a good draft pick in 2026.  I would think top 10.  Are you suggesting trading Brown for draft picks?  I don't see that happening this year anyway, nor do I think that would be the right path.

In general, I am not for blowing up the core (Tatum, Brown, White) right now.  For Flagg?  Maybe. But not for more run of the mill draft picks.

[Roy H.]

We've got to put the $22.5 million TPE to good use, and then find some rotation players in the draft and with the Taxpayer MLE.

[Celtics4ever]

Brad better start drafting better. That?s for sure.

Even if Stevens does draft better, rookies do not win you championships. That is what perplexes me so much.

Magic Johnson says hello, wons finals MVP.   Definitely, the exception not the norm.

[Roy H.]

Brad better start drafting better. That?s for sure.

Even if Stevens does draft better, rookies do not win you championships. That is what perplexes me so much.

Magic Johnson says hello, wons finals MVP.   Definitely, the exception not the norm.

Plus, those rookies eventually turn into veterans.

I'd feel better if Danny had been here running the draft.  We'd likely have Sensabaugh and Filipowski, instead of Walsh and Scheierman. I also doubt we would have traded #32 this year for a bag of nickels.

[Vermont Green]

We've got to put the $22.5 million TPE to good use, and then find some rotation players in the draft and with the Taxpayer MLE.

I think you are referring to the $22.5M TPE from the Porzingis trade.  That is going to be tricky.  If we use it this season, it will no doubt put us back above the second apron.  If they were going to operate over the second apron, they wouldn't have traded Porzingis in the first place (or Holiday).  So I am not sure how likely it is that it gets used this season.

If they use it next off season (it expires July 7, 2026), then they would be hard capped at the first apron I believe.  So it is kind of a Catch 22.  If they spend money by using this (not in the season it was generated), it prevents them from spending money.  They are better off not using this and staying somewhere between the first and second aprons this season and moving forward.

They certainly need to hit on the 2026 first round draft pick or trade it for value.  That draft pick is a key piece in all this.  Not sure how much you can expect from late first round and second round picks.  They can trade Simons to get back some value but whether you trade Simons for players or trade him for space and use the Porzingis TPE, you end up about the same place.

[Neurotic Guy]

Brad better start drafting better. That?s for sure.

Even if Stevens does draft better, rookies do not win you championships. That is what perplexes me so much.

Magic Johnson says hello, wons finals MVP.   Definitely, the exception not the norm.

Once upon a time there were the Jays.   Then there was Kyrie, Gordon, Kemba, Al Horford (2), Derrick White, Robert Williams, Sam Hauser, Payton Pritchard, Malcolm Brogden, Luke Kornet, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and others.  Some worked out better than others, but point being that Brad, and Danny before him, have worked diligently to support the Jays.  As a result, the C's have had two Finals appearances, a championship and a bunch of ECFs. 
Brad isn't perfect, but his track record of finding ways to build around the Jays is pretty dang good.  I expect there to be a surprise or 2 before 2026-27. 

[Roy H.]

We've got to put the $22.5 million TPE to good use, and then find some rotation players in the draft and with the Taxpayer MLE.

I think you are referring to the $22.5M TPE from the Porzingis trade.  That is going to be tricky.  If we use it this season, it will no doubt put us back above the second apron.  If they were going to operate over the second apron, they wouldn't have traded Porzingis in the first place (or Holiday).  So I am not sure how likely it is that it gets used this season.

If they use it next off season (it expires July 7, 2026), then they would be hard capped at the first apron I believe.  So it is kind of a Catch 22.  If they spend money by using this (not in the season it was generated), it prevents them from spending money.  They are better off not using this and staying somewhere between the first and second aprons this season and moving forward.

They certainly need to hit on the 2026 first round draft pick or trade it for value.  That draft pick is a key piece in all this.  Not sure how much you can expect from late first round and second round picks.  They can trade Simons to get back some value but whether you trade Simons for players or trade him for space and use the Porzingis TPE, you end up about the same place.

Right now they're projected to have just over $29 million in room under the 1st apron next off-season, so it's viable to use it.