I Think I Am Aboard The Tank Train Now

[Vermont Green]

Is it correct that the Celtics can be a play in team and still be in the draft lottery?  It would only be if they win their way into the actual playoffs that they would fall outside the lottery, correct?

Right now, BOS would be the 11th lowest team team, and based on the lottery, could move up or down from there, assuming they did not win the play in round.  But probably BOS ends up with a 10-12 pick.  If that turns out to be the case, I would see it as highly likely that they do trade the pick.  Not for a bunch of 2nd rounders though, most likely for an actual player.  Say Simons and that pick for a starting level big at the trade deadline.  Something like that.

Teams get silly around the draft.  Someone will offer to overpay for that pick, if it hasn't been traded in advance of draft night.  So yes, if BOS still has this pick on draft night, I would expect them to trade it, to move back and get other future assets.  I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing.  It all depends on the deal.

[keevsnick]

Is it correct that the Celtics can be a play in team and still be in the draft lottery?  It would only be if they win their way into the actual playoffs that they would fall outside the lottery, correct?

Right now, BOS would be the 11th lowest team team, and based on the lottery, could move up or down from there, assuming they did not win the play in round.  But probably BOS ends up with a 10-12 pick.  If that turns out to be the case, I would see it as highly likely that they do trade the pick.  Not for a bunch of 2nd rounders though, most likely for an actual player.  Say Simons and that pick for a starting level big at the trade deadline.  Something like that.

Teams get silly around the draft.  Someone will offer to overpay for that pick, if it hasn't been traded in advance of draft night.  So yes, if BOS still has this pick on draft night, I would expect them to trade it, to move back and get other future assets.  I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing.  It all depends on the deal.

Yes, that's correct. If Boston goes into the play-in as say the 8th seed, but loses, they get seeded in the lottery based off the record of the 14 teams that don't make the playoffs.

[Phantom255x]

Is it correct that the Celtics can be a play in team and still be in the draft lottery?  It would only be if they win their way into the actual playoffs that they would fall outside the lottery, correct?

Right now, BOS would be the 11th lowest team team, and based on the lottery, could move up or down from there, assuming they did not win the play in round.  But probably BOS ends up with a 10-12 pick.  If that turns out to be the case, I would see it as highly likely that they do trade the pick.  Not for a bunch of 2nd rounders though, most likely for an actual player.  Say Simons and that pick for a starting level big at the trade deadline.  Something like that.

Teams get silly around the draft.  Someone will offer to overpay for that pick, if it hasn't been traded in advance of draft night.  So yes, if BOS still has this pick on draft night, I would expect them to trade it, to move back and get other future assets.  I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing.  It all depends on the deal.

Yes, that's correct. If Boston goes into the play-in as say the 8th seed, but loses, they get seeded in the lottery based off the record of the 14 teams that don't make the playoffs.

I'll gladly take a pick in the 8-12 range, that still has value too. Unless the ping pong balls go in their favor and lands them a Top-5 pick, it's also looking very unlikely we'll be a bottom-6 team in the NBA to begin with. Wizards, Nets, Pelicans, Hornets, Kings, probably also the 1-11 Pacers are likely going to finish worse

[keevsnick]

Is it correct that the Celtics can be a play in team and still be in the draft lottery?  It would only be if they win their way into the actual playoffs that they would fall outside the lottery, correct?

Right now, BOS would be the 11th lowest team team, and based on the lottery, could move up or down from there, assuming they did not win the play in round.  But probably BOS ends up with a 10-12 pick.  If that turns out to be the case, I would see it as highly likely that they do trade the pick.  Not for a bunch of 2nd rounders though, most likely for an actual player.  Say Simons and that pick for a starting level big at the trade deadline.  Something like that.

Teams get silly around the draft.  Someone will offer to overpay for that pick, if it hasn't been traded in advance of draft night.  So yes, if BOS still has this pick on draft night, I would expect them to trade it, to move back and get other future assets.  I don't see that as necessarily a bad thing.  It all depends on the deal.

Yes, that's correct. If Boston goes into the play-in as say the 8th seed, but loses, they get seeded in the lottery based off the record of the 14 teams that don't make the playoffs.

I'll gladly take a pick in the 8-12 range, that still has value too. Unless the ping pong balls go in their favor and lands them a Top-5 pick, it's also looking very unlikely we'll be a bottom-6 team in the NBA to begin with. Wizards, Nets, Pelicans, Hornets, Kings, probably also the 1-11 Pacers are likely going to finish worse

I never understood the idea that the Celtics would be bottom half of lottery bad, just way too much talent and institutional knowledge to be that bad not to mention a lot of teams who just NEED a top pick a lot more than the C's do. The C's path to a top 4 pick has always involved A LOT of lottery luck (barring injury).

I predicted 42 wins for the C's, and thus far I think I'd stick with that prediction. They are 14th in offense, 9th in defense according to cleaning the glass. Still haven't started really hitting their threes yet at just 33.5%. Have gotten unlucky in a few close games. But balancing that out they have also been healthy so far.

They aren't a BAD team.

[Vermont Green]

I had predicted 40 wins in one thread and then finishing 9th in the east in another thread.  They are on pace to fall short of that, but in the ball park.  The Heat and Bulls are the teams doing better than I thought.  PHI too in that I did not expect Embiid to play much.  He still may not last and then PHI would be in tank mode.

It is only 13 games in (about 16% or 1/6th of the season), but I suspect this is pretty much what they are.  Hang around 0.500, end up a fringe play in team.  Right now, they are not a play in team, so even that is not a given.

[Donoghus]

I had predicted 40 wins in one thread and then finishing 9th in the east in another thread.  They are on pace to fall short of that, but in the ball park.  The Heat and Bulls are the teams doing better than I thought.  PHI too in that I did not expect Embiid to play much.  He still may not last and then PHI would be in tank mode.

It is only 13 games in (about 16% or 1/6th of the season), but I suspect this is pretty much what they are.  Hang around 0.500, end up a fringe play in team.  Right now, they are not a play in team, so even that is not a given.

It's so bunched up right now that you can pretty much throw that out the window. Two games separate the 3 seed & 11 seed right now.  IMO, at the moment, they are a better team than their record indicates.  Had a few games with late 4th quarter falters that could've easily gone the other way and only requires a few tweaks to be correctable.  I've been saying since summer than this is a better than .500 team and I think they can avoid the play-in all together.  Nothing I've seen has changed that opinion. Injuries would be the one wild card.  Water finds its level and this team has been below it so far. 

[Vermont Green]

I had predicted 40 wins in one thread and then finishing 9th in the east in another thread.  They are on pace to fall short of that, but in the ball park.  The Heat and Bulls are the teams doing better than I thought.  PHI too in that I did not expect Embiid to play much.  He still may not last and then PHI would be in tank mode.

It is only 13 games in (about 16% or 1/6th of the season), but I suspect this is pretty much what they are.  Hang around 0.500, end up a fringe play in team.  Right now, they are not a play in team, so even that is not a given.

It's so bunched up right now that you can pretty much throw that out the window. Two games separate the 3 seed & 11 seed right now.  IMO, at the moment, they are a better team than their record indicates.  Had a few games with late 4th quarter falters that could've easily gone the other way and only requires a few tweaks to be correctable.  I've been saying since summer than this is a better than .500 team and I think they can avoid the play-in all together.  Nothing I've seen has changed that opinion. Injuries would be the one wild card.  Water finds its level and this team has been below it so far.

Maybe, as you say, small sample size so far.  But to get to the 6 seed, they would have to pass MIL, TOR, CHI, and ORL.  MIA , PHI, and ATL may fall back, but you would still need to pass at least 4 of these 7 teams.

I will say that one thing that could impact this is the play of White and Pritchard (and to some degree Hauser).  If these guys had been playing like they did last season, maybe BOS does have 1 or 2 more wins and the landscape would look really different.  Otherwise, I am not sure where the improvement comes from.