I Think I Am Aboard The Tank Train Now

[Phantom255x]

The over/under is 43.5

I'm taking the under. It's not just Jrue/Porzingis/Horford/Tatum (though it's a lot), but the fact that our frontcourt is gonna get demolished a lot of nights. Even "average bigs" will be made to look like Shaq/Duncan against us.

Under 43.5, and hopefully a good spot in the lottery odds

I can't believe it's that high. I don't think they'll come anywhere close to that.

It might be because the East as a whole is pretty weak

[GreenEnvy]

Go full tank. Trade Brown.

Get picks, a project, and expirings.

Go into next summer with a top draft pick and cap space and retool around Tatum and White.

[Jiri Welsch]

Totally deconstructing the roster just for the Moby Dick-like pursuit of a vaunted top lottery pick is dangerous and actually could make things much harder.

The only way the Celtics should tank is if they suffer a couple long-term injuries to key guys. They still have too much talent.

[jambr380]

Not to over simplify things, but JT got knocked out for next season.
I think Brad knew that night, well no sense paying JH, KP, AH, LK.
I mean he made those moves for a Ring and we got one!!  Without JT, we are not winning it next year, so why pay them?
So, he didn't. Did he do it to Tank? No, he did it because what else was he gonna do? So, ya, we are not paying those extra pieces to win, because We are not winning next year. Now, Brad has to decide, how much are you willing to give up to get under the 2nd apron? Players like DW and JB don't come around very often! So, you don't want to lose them. They are not Fringe players you need to win the chip, they are literally your team when JT comes back. Then you go find the Fringe players to try again with, when JT is healthy.  So, where does that leave us for next year? I don't think Brad cares, I do not think he is thinking of a draft pick, I think Brad is trying to figure out the best way to take another shot at a ring when Tatum is healthy again.

Just to be clear, the team does want Al Horford, but Al Horford does not want the team. We made offers to both him and Kornet. Kornet obviously got paid and gets to move back home to play for an up and coming contender, but Al just seemingly actively wants to leave.

We'll see what happens with the team, but I think folks are going to be pretty disappointed when we are picking in the 14-16 range. We aren't bad enough to tank in the East,

[tonydelk]

Not to over simplify things, but JT got knocked out for next season.
I think Brad knew that night, well no sense paying JH, KP, AH, LK.
I mean he made those moves for a Ring and we got one!!  Without JT, we are not winning it next year, so why pay them?
So, he didn't. Did he do it to Tank? No, he did it because what else was he gonna do? So, ya, we are not paying those extra pieces to win, because We are not winning next year. Now, Brad has to decide, how much are you willing to give up to get under the 2nd apron? Players like DW and JB don't come around very often! So, you don't want to lose them. They are not Fringe players you need to win the chip, they are literally your team when JT comes back. Then you go find the Fringe players to try again with, when JT is healthy.  So, where does that leave us for next year? I don't think Brad cares, I do not think he is thinking of a draft pick, I think Brad is trying to figure out the best way to take another shot at a ring when Tatum is healthy again.

Just to be clear, the team does want Al Horford, but Al Horford does not want the team. We made offers to both him and Kornet. Kornet obviously got paid and gets to move back home to play for an up and coming contender, but Al just seemingly actively wants to leave.

We'll see what happens with the team, but I think folks are going to be pretty disappointed when we are picking in the 14-16 range. We aren't bad enough to tank in the East,

Players drop all the time into the later lottery and its mu h easier to move from 16 to 13 then 28.  If the cs had the 14th pick they could have moved up 1 spot to 13 and get Derek queen.  I'd prefer a top 5 pick but you can get a good starter at 14 versus late 20s.

[Vermont Green]

People seem to be misinterpreting what the Celtics are doing.  They are not blowing it up, nor should they.  They are using the 2025-26 season to kind of reset and get their financial house in order so that they can compete again in 2026-27 and beyond.  The roster for 2025-26 looks pretty bleak with no Tatum and not even one serviceable big.  But that is only temporary.  I don't believe the Celtics care all that much about winning in 2025-26, it is going to be a lost season, very realistically a lottery season.  But then Tatum comes back.

I don't understand at all how people think it is better to have Tatum, White, and draft picks over Tatum, White, and Brown.  You think we will get the next Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the draft?  He didn't start winning for about 5 or 6 seasons after being drafted.  So you want to trade Brown and wait 5 seasons to be good again?  Not me.  I want to keep as much of the core together that we can and see how it looks in 2026-27.  In fact, if we do get a lottery pick for the 2026 draft, I prefer to trade it for a veteran, go all in for 2026 and beyond.

[Vermont Green]

Not to over simplify things, but JT got knocked out for next season.
I think Brad knew that night, well no sense paying JH, KP, AH, LK.
I mean he made those moves for a Ring and we got one!!  Without JT, we are not winning it next year, so why pay them?
So, he didn't. Did he do it to Tank? No, he did it because what else was he gonna do? So, ya, we are not paying those extra pieces to win, because We are not winning next year. Now, Brad has to decide, how much are you willing to give up to get under the 2nd apron? Players like DW and JB don't come around very often! So, you don't want to lose them. They are not Fringe players you need to win the chip, they are literally your team when JT comes back. Then you go find the Fringe players to try again with, when JT is healthy.  So, where does that leave us for next year? I don't think Brad cares, I do not think he is thinking of a draft pick, I think Brad is trying to figure out the best way to take another shot at a ring when Tatum is healthy again.

I agree with what I think you are saying and how you are interpreting the team's moves.  I see no reason at all to invest money to make the 2025-26 team better.  You might invest money this season to make the 2026-27 team better, but 2025-26 is a lost season.  Kornet (for example) is a nice player, but not essential to winning in 2026-27.  He can be replaced.  Horford will likely be retired by then.  It makes no sense to me to spend money on these guys now.

Holiday and Porzingis could both make the 2026-27 team better but are they the best use of that money?  The 2nd apron needs to be managed, that is a cold hard fact.  But trading these 2 guys is not the same as blowing up the team.  I was hoping that they would find a way to keep Porzingis.  A skilled big like that is hard to replace, even to get something close to what Porzingis can do.  Holiday is great, but more easily replaced or come closer to replacing than Porzingis.

[celticsclay]

So if we have Simons, Pritchard, JB, White how bad do you guys think that team really is?

I don't think you could say with a straight face it is worse than the Pacers losing Halliburton and Turner
There is a way Washington is better than us
Chicago's best player is Josh Giddey?
I guess Brooklyn's best player is Cam Thomas?
I would take us over Toronto's Roster (although they are close)
I would have us over Charlotte unless Miller really takes a leap

How exactly do we tank that hard?
 

[Neurotic Guy]

So if we have Simons, Pritchard, JB, White how bad do you guys think that team really is?

I don't think you could say with a straight face it is worse than the Pacers losing Halliburton and Turner
There is a way Washington is better than us
Chicago's best player is Josh Giddey?
I guess Brooklyn's best player is Cam Thomas?
I would take us over Toronto's Roster (although they are close)
I would have us over Charlotte unless Miller really takes a leap

How exactly do we tank that hard?

I agree.  As much as other posters are claiming that our roster is horrific, I see a lot of offensive potential (add Hauser, Baylor, Garza and Niang to the other 4).  With pt, can Queta become a consistent defensive presence and solid rebounder/finisher?  Maybe. Also, a couple of interesting young guys in Hugo and Minott and maybe even Williams - probably non-contributers but you never know for sure.  I also am holding out hope (as usual) for Walsh to take a step forward. And Brad is not done yet.   

I think this is possibly a .500 team - very much a play-in capable team as is.  I know that doesn't get anyone excited, but I think they'll need to lose some talent to get into the lottery, never mind deep lottery.  Will be interesting to see how this group starts the year. 

[Vermont Green]

So if we have Simons, Pritchard, JB, White how bad do you guys think that team really is?

I don't think you could say with a straight face it is worse than the Pacers losing Halliburton and Turner
There is a way Washington is better than us
Chicago's best player is Josh Giddey?
I guess Brooklyn's best player is Cam Thomas?
I would take us over Toronto's Roster (although they are close)
I would have us over Charlotte unless Miller really takes a leap

How exactly do we tank that hard?

Fair question.  I don't know how good or bad in terms of a specific number of wins but I have BOS in the middle of the 15 east teams:

Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta Hawks
Detroit Pistons
Toronto Raptors

Boston Celtics

Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Chicago Bulls
Brooklyn Nets
Philadelphia 76ers
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards

That probably means 40'ish wins.  That may or may not be a lottery team.  Keep in mind that Brown will miss games, maybe as many as 20 games (expecting a few more missed games than his recent average).

Sure, Brown, White, Simons, Prichard, a really good rotation of guards, but there is severe drop off after that.

[slamtheking]

So if we have Simons, Pritchard, JB, White how bad do you guys think that team really is?

I don't think you could say with a straight face it is worse than the Pacers losing Halliburton and Turner
There is a way Washington is better than us
Chicago's best player is Josh Giddey?
I guess Brooklyn's best player is Cam Thomas?
I would take us over Toronto's Roster (although they are close)
I would have us over Charlotte unless Miller really takes a leap

How exactly do we tank that hard?

Fair question.  I don't know how good or bad in terms of a specific number of wins but I have BOS in the middle of the 15 east teams:

Cleveland Cavaliers
New York Knicks
Orlando Magic
Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta Hawks
Detroit Pistons
Toronto Raptors

Boston Celtics

Indiana Pacers
Miami Heat
Chicago Bulls
Brooklyn Nets
Philadelphia 76ers
Charlotte Hornets
Washington Wizards

That probably means 40'ish wins.  That may or may not be a lottery team.  Keep in mind that Brown will miss games, maybe as many as 20 games (expecting a few more missed games than his recent average).

Sure, Brown, White, Simons, Prichard, a really good rotation of guards, but there is severe drop off after that.

We're basically going to get creamed every night on defense.  no real presense in the paint to protect against guards/wings penetrating.  Only really White and Brown as plus defenders.  everyone else is adequate at best (and that's only a few) and the others are bad (some to the point of unplayable). 

Unless almost everyone on the team goes off on a heater and the other team can't shoot worth a lick, we're going to be piling up the losses.  if we come away with 8 wins against the Western conference all season, I'd be stunned.  maybe 15-18 against the East.  C's win total will end up in the mid to low 20's.  that's fine if for a tanking season.

[keevsnick]

As currently constructed I expect the Celtics to be pretty bad on defense. Brown and White are good defenders. Pritchard and Hauser are okay. Guys like Walsh or Gonzalez could be good. But Simmons is awful on defense as is Niang, and they don't have much rim protection. The only real hope is that Queta's drop defense takes a big step forward this year.

The offense on the other hand could be very good. Brown on/Tatum off offense was still very good last year. They have 4 guys who can create (Brown/White/Simons/Pritchard) as well as Niang/Hauser who are elite shooters. I expect they will BOMB threes even more than last year.

On the whole a very good offense but pretty bad defense gets you probably 36-42 wins in a very bad eastern conference. That's probably enough for somewhere in the 10th-7th seed. Think something along the Sacramento kings who had the 7th ranked offense and 22 ranked defense to go 40-42. Maybe slightly worse than that.

Last 4 years 10th/7th seed wins:
21-22: 43/44
22-23: 41/41
23-24: 36/47
24-25: 39/41

[Phantom255x]

I'm not seeing how people think this team is winning 38-40+ games when you look at our frontcourt.

If we had kept Horford, then maybe. But he's likely gone.

Tatum and Jrue were also capable of filling in and eating up spot minutes at PF/C, but both are gone/rehabbing as well

[Moranis]

The East is not that bad. It is at the top, but there are a lot of decent teams.

Boston clearly isnt better than Clevland, New York, Orlando, Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee. If Philly stays mostly healthy they are clearly better as well.  Indiana and Miami are both likely better.  Toronto and Chicago have much deeper teams though Brown and White are the best duo on those teams.  Even Charlotte has a lot of top end talent from the high draft picks the last several years. Brooklyn and Washington are the only teams that are clearly worse on paper, though I do think Boston also finishes ahead of Charlotte and Chicago, so 5th worst in East which is not a play in team, but also not a dreg which would improve draft pick.

[SHAQATTACK]

I?m bummed