I Think I Am Aboard The Tank Train Now

[tazzmaniac]

Choo choo!

Dybantsa or Boozer here we come. Then build for 2027 and beyond with the Jays, White, PP and Dybantsa/Boozer. Hopefully another significant addition as well.

I think next year?s squad is a play-in at best now even with the East being weak in general.

You can't tank with Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Simons on the roster. We're going to be at least a .500 team. Our talent simply won't allow us to tank. Now if you traded JB for the #1 overall pick in Flagg we could have had a conversation but that didn't happen. So I just don't see it happening now.

I think this is where I fall, and (perhaps controversially) I have no desire to watch a tanking team compared to a team that just isn't that good.

How good is a team with Queta, Tillman and Garza at center going to be?  Don't think Brown and White can make up for that and Simons poor defense will help with the losing. 

[Kernewek]

Choo choo!

Dybantsa or Boozer here we come. Then build for 2027 and beyond with the Jays, White, PP and Dybantsa/Boozer. Hopefully another significant addition as well.

I think next year?s squad is a play-in at best now even with the East being weak in general.

You can't tank with Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Simons on the roster. We're going to be at least a .500 team. Our talent simply won't allow us to tank. Now if you traded JB for the #1 overall pick in Flagg we could have had a conversation but that didn't happen. So I just don't see it happening now.

I think this is where I fall, and (perhaps controversially) I have no desire to watch a tanking team compared to a team that just isn't that good.

How good is a team with Queta, Tillman and Garza at center going to be?  Don't think Brown and White can make up for that and Simons poor defense will help with the losing.

I think I agree with you, but I see them being about as good as the post-big-3 era (aka Rondo & the Randoms) teams, who were much more fun to watch than some of the teams that were not-so-secretly trying to tank.

[Larry for 3]

The roster where it stands right now is a 41-41 team. And that may be generous. What a horrible rebounding and defensive team that is. The Celtics are tanking plain and simple. Right now they are 1 injury away from being deep in the lottery.

[Vermont Green]

Tanking has such a negative connotation.  I prefer to call it the lost season or the gap season.  In any case, I see no reason to invest in the team for the 2025-26 season.  They need to be under the 2nd apron absolutely for sure and they may even get under the tax threshold.

But if that is tanking, that doesn't mean trading Brown or White or any other actual valuable pieces that will be part of the team in 2026-27 and beyond.  I think this truly is a reset, not a blow it up and start over.  MIL may trade Giannis (for example) as they need to start over.  The Celtics don't need to start over.  Tatum will be back.  If he is not the same, then you consider starting over.

And one additional thought.  I think it is likely they end up a lottery team for the next draft.  That pick may allow you to take a good young player or may allow you to trade for a player on another team that is good right now.  Say Simons and that pick at the trade deadline, when it is clear the Celtics are headed for the lottery.  That pick may be more valuable as a trade asset.

[Larry for 3]

Tanking has such a negative connotation.  I prefer to call it the lost season or the gap season.  In any case, I see no reason to invest in the team for the 2025-26 season.  They need to be under the 2nd apron absolutely for sure and they may even get under the tax threshold.

But if that is tanking, that doesn't mean trading Brown or White or any other actual valuable pieces that will be part of the team in 2026-27 and beyond.  I think this truly is a reset, not a blow it up and start over.  MIL may trade Giannis (for example) as they need to start over.  The Celtics don't need to start over.  Tatum will be back.  If he is not the same, then you consider starting over.

And one additional thought.  I think it is likely they end up a lottery team for the next draft.  That pick may allow you to take a good young player or may allow you to trade for a player on another team that is good right now.  Say Simons and that pick at the trade deadline, when it is clear the Celtics are headed for the lottery.  That pick may be more valuable as a trade asset.

It?s a dangerous game. Even if you add Tatum to the current roster it?s first round fodder- maybe if your lucky 2nd round fodder.

[celticinorlando]

East stinks so bad....but I am hoping the Cs get into the lottery. No need trying to make the playoffs with this clown show roster.

[Vermont Green]

Tanking has such a negative connotation.  I prefer to call it the lost season or the gap season.  In any case, I see no reason to invest in the team for the 2025-26 season.  They need to be under the 2nd apron absolutely for sure and they may even get under the tax threshold.

But if that is tanking, that doesn't mean trading Brown or White or any other actual valuable pieces that will be part of the team in 2026-27 and beyond.  I think this truly is a reset, not a blow it up and start over.  MIL may trade Giannis (for example) as they need to start over.  The Celtics don't need to start over.  Tatum will be back.  If he is not the same, then you consider starting over.

And one additional thought.  I think it is likely they end up a lottery team for the next draft.  That pick may allow you to take a good young player or may allow you to trade for a player on another team that is good right now.  Say Simons and that pick at the trade deadline, when it is clear the Celtics are headed for the lottery.  That pick may be more valuable as a trade asset.

It?s a dangerous game. Even if you add Tatum to the current roster it?s first round fodder- maybe if your lucky 2nd round fodder.

If they go into the 2026-27 season with the same roster + Tatum, then yes, good not great.  But they won't.  Simons, Niang, Tillman plus maybe Walsh and Scheierman will all be gone by then (all expiring or team options).  Maybe some others via straight trades.  Plus we may have a lottery pick to use or trade.  Things will look much different, much better by the Oct 2026.

[Who]

Tanking has such a negative connotation.  I prefer to call it the lost season or the gap season.  In any case, I see no reason to invest in the team for the 2025-26 season.  They need to be under the 2nd apron absolutely for sure and they may even get under the tax threshold.

But if that is tanking, that doesn't mean trading Brown or White or any other actual valuable pieces that will be part of the team in 2026-27 and beyond.  I think this truly is a reset, not a blow it up and start over.  MIL may trade Giannis (for example) as they need to start over.  The Celtics don't need to start over.  Tatum will be back.  If he is not the same, then you consider starting over.

And one additional thought.  I think it is likely they end up a lottery team for the next draft.  That pick may allow you to take a good young player or may allow you to trade for a player on another team that is good right now.  Say Simons and that pick at the trade deadline, when it is clear the Celtics are headed for the lottery.  That pick may be more valuable as a trade asset.

It?s a dangerous game. Even if you add Tatum to the current roster it?s first round fodder- maybe if your lucky 2nd round fodder.

If they go into the 2026-27 season with the same roster + Tatum, then yes, good not great.  But they won't. Simons, Niang, Tillman plus maybe Walsh and Scheierman will all be gone by then (all expiring or team options).  Maybe some others via straight trades.  Plus we may have a lottery pick to use or trade.  Things will look much different, much better by the Oct 2026.

Replacing A Simons will be hard.

The others don't matter. They are end of bench fodder. Easy to replace.

A Simons is a quality player. A 20ppg, a shot creator and a high level shooter. If he leaves as an expiring, Boston will have no way to replace him. They will be over the cap. So no major free agent signings.

We will have to either pay A Simons or trade him prior to his contract expiring. Trading him and getting value back will be hard unless you are willing to pile on 1st round picks alongside him. Don't pay him and you lose a quality player with no way to replace him. Paying him (a fair contract) is the best way to keep the asset until you can find a trade (if you can't find one before his contract expires).

I expect A Simons to be on the team next season (2026-27). If they can find a trade before then, great. But that may not happen. In that case, re-sign him and keep the asset.

[Vermont Green]

We will have to either pay A Simons or trade him prior to his contract expiring.

I agree with this general statement.  I just feel it is more likely that he is traded by the deadline.  If he plays well enough to show he can be a productive part of the mix for 2026-27 and beyond, then signing/extending him is fine too.

It is more about how the roster is going to be constructed for 2026 and beyond.  I don't know that they can afford to bring on another $30M plus contract in any case, due to the second apron and other penalties.

Say we package Simons, Niang, and our probably lottery pick in 2026.  That is about $36M outgoing.  Ideally, we turn that into 2 serviceable bigs, but the target could be a $30M plus level big.  Or we extend Simons and hope to fill the big holes otherwise.  I am sure I won't predict exactly how it all goes down, my point is that there is no need to worry about the roster for this season, it is all about 2026 and beyond.

[angryguy77]

Making the playoffs does 0 for us.

At this point I'd be open to trading brown for haul and let JT and White lead the team the year after.

[RodyTur10]

Making the playoffs does 0 for us.

At this point I'd be open to trading brown for haul and let JT and White lead the team the year after.

Something I believe is overlooked in the wagering between trading Brown and White is the NBA load:

Brown: 23K minutes (regular + playoffs combined)
White: 16.5K minutes (regular + playoffs combined)

Besides that, Brown's game is more based on athleticism and he's more injury prone.

So to me it's obvious you definitely want to trade Brown unless there's no market for him.

[Ilikesports17]

Making the playoffs does 0 for us.

At this point I'd be open to trading brown for haul and let JT and White lead the team the year after.

All depends on the market doesnt it? I think the fact that no one blew us away by draft night indicates theres not going to be that big offer out there.

I suppose the other possible shoe to drop would be if this Turner to Milwaukee move shuts the door on teams Giannis hopes. Maybe then some teams would pivot to Brown. Just dont see it as realistic at this point.

Its not like the first day of FA has been some big surprise. I suppose we may have expected to be able to bring back Luke, but does Luke Kornet really change the math on a Jaylen Brown trade? Id hope not.

[Phantom255x]

[mef730]

Making the playoffs does 0 for us.

At this point I'd be open to trading brown for haul and let JT and White lead the team the year after.

All depends on the market doesnt it? I think the fact that no one blew us away by draft night indicates theres not going to be that big offer out there.

I suppose the other possible shoe to drop would be if this Turner to Milwaukee move shuts the door on teams Giannis hopes. Maybe then some teams would pivot to Brown. Just dont see it as realistic at this point.

Its not like the first day of FA has been some big surprise. I suppose we may have expected to be able to bring back Luke, but does Luke Kornet really change the math on a Jaylen Brown trade? Id hope not.

Agree. Anything short of, say, Brown to the Kings for Sabonis and five firsts is going to be turned down.

[Kuberski33]

We may well be in store for a rough season. But tanking won't help anything unless you get lucky in the lottery. Anyone from the first pick or two on down is likely to not be a ton of help in 26-27.  I could however be convinced to move Jaylen for the right deal.