Anfernee Simons

[lbgreen33]

Let's talk about AS. I mean, I am trying to like the pick up so hear me out. 1st. One of the toughest things to find in this league are great scorers. This kid can really score the basketball. 2nd. One of the best defensive coaches you could put him under is JM. I remember Marcus Smart making everyone on the Cs better at defense, just being around him and learning his work ethic.
So, for the sake of argument, if the Cs can work with AS on his defense, make him buy into the system. Who knows, this could be a great pick up. How did I do?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I look at him in the same vein as a lot of non-all-star scoring guards that can run a little big of point guard, but can't be the point guard full-time.

Think Bradley Beal, Tyler Herro, CJ McCullom, Jordan Poole, Desmond Bane, Coby White, Immanual Quickley, Jalen Green, Austin Reeves, Malik Monk, and Zach Lavine. He's better than many of those players but not all.

But there needs to be a few notes about his environment:
- The Blazers organization has not been well-run for a while. They've always had a faulty team-building strategy since he came into the league.
- He's never played with an all-star other than Lillard, who plays the same position.
- He played behind McCullom for years, until they finally traded McCullom
- Since then, he's played on one of the worst teams in the league with multiple coaches
- The floor spacing for Portland has been really bad the last few years - they play 1-2 non-shooters and 1-2 questionable shooters at all times

There's a possibility that he's been in a bad situation, and that with proper floor spacing, good teammates, and good coaching, he can take a step forward as a scorer.

He might get to 22ppg this year on good efficiency with this team. Plus, he takes the pressure off of Brown a bit and keeps White from being forced into a high usage primary role, which he is probably ill-suited for.

[celticinorlando]

I don't think he will be traded until the trade deadline if he gets moved at all. If he is a good fit I could see an extension for him in Boston.

[Vermont Green]

I have not seen him play all that much (it is hard to get a read on these guys that play for bad teams out west), but my impression is that Herro and Poole are probably good comps at best (I don't know that he is quite as good as these guys).  There seemed to be more buzz around him a couple of seasons ago.  But even if he is something close to Herro or Poole, that is still some value.

I think the problem is that he is the ticket for the Celtics to get under the tax threshold and reset the repeater penalties.  2025-26 is the season to do this.  Keeping him for 2025-26 means that BOS would be in a better position to sign or extend him for 2026-27 and beyond.  But is that really worth it relative to resetting the repeater tax?  I don't think so.

Right now, we are about $15.4 over the tax threshold by my math.  I don't see getting under it without moving Simons or Hauser (along with Naing) and I would rather keep Hauser (when contract and production are considered).  I don't see it as a pure salary dump, I think he has value and there will be a deal with someone where we get something of value back but cut the cost.

[vjcsmoke]

I believe the main objective was getting out of the 2nd apron and that has been accomplished.

Simons could be a good #2 scoring option for the Celtics next year with Tatum expected to be out for most of the season.

White can focus more on being a #1 PG type. Pritchard resumes his role of 6th man and backup PG.

Simons is our 2 guard and will put up points.

Honestly Simons salary being decently sized could mean he's a useful piece to obtaining a better player later down the line, assuming he plays well enough.

So I'm watching his clips here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hbsiwhmq-8w

Simons strikes me as a smooth athlete, and a natural scorer, he's not afraid when challenged by elite defenders like Wenbeyama. I also got a kick seeing him score some buckets against the Celtics. Clearly he can beat solid defensive teams.

He also shows off really good passing for a 2 guard. Sees the floor well and dishes to the open man. Just saw on NBA reference he put up 4.8 assists per game. For comparison that matches White's 4.8 per game.

Simons is only going to be 26 this upcoming season and might become a fan favorite. Let's give him a chance, I have a feeling he will provide buckets and assists.

Can't speak to his defensive game, but his offensive game looks like a legit NBA scorer.

[JBcat]

I have not seen him play all that much (it is hard to get a read on these guys that play for bad teams out west), but my impression is that Herro and Poole are probably good comps at best (I don't know that he is quite as good as these guys).  There seemed to be more buzz around him a couple of seasons ago.  But even if he is something close to Herro or Poole, that is still some value.

I think the problem is that he is the ticket for the Celtics to get under the tax threshold and reset the repeater penalties.  2025-26 is the season to do this.  Keeping him for 2025-26 means that BOS would be in a better position to sign or extend him for 2026-27 and beyond.  But is that really worth it relative to resetting the repeater tax?  I don't think so.

Right now, we are about $15.4 over the tax threshold by my math.  I don't see getting under it without moving Simons or Hauser (along with Naing) and I would rather keep Hauser (when contract and production are considered).  I don't see it as a pure salary dump, I think he has value and there will be a deal with someone where we get something of value back but cut the cost.

At one point I liked him a little more than Herro and Poole. I?m not as sure now, but I think in a better environment with the Celtics could help and rejuvenate him. He can go on heaters, and he won?t have the pressure here of being the number 1 option. When Tatum comes back having him, Brown, White, and a rim protecting big can help hide him defensively and we should have a really fun elite offense. I?m hoping as Houser and Pritchard have improved defensively under JM that Simons can do the same even just a little.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

There's a little bit of smoke around the Warriors and the Bulls for Simons, but the Bulls have also been rumored to be interested in Kuminga.

Bulls receive: Moody (absorbed into TE), Kuminga (S+T 4 years, 100m)
Warriors receive: Simons, Niang
Celtics receive: Ball, Dosunmu, first round pick from the Bulls, protected first from the Warriors that likely converts to two 2nds

That seems like a pretty fair trade all the way around. Bulls get a scoring forward to go with their young core, and they really aren't giving up that much. Warriors get a scoring guard next to Curry and a crafty 4 to soak up some minutes for one last championship run.

The Celtics take an upside swing at two guards who could both be partial replacements for Holliday in different ways. Plus, we get future draft picks.

This also would give us access to both the trade exemption from Zinger and also (I think) our full MLE for signing other free agents. This gives us a lot more flexibility, which Stevens said was the focus.

[blink]

There's a little bit of smoke around the Warriors and the Bulls for Simons, but the Bulls have also been rumored to be interested in Kuminga.

Bulls receive: Moody (absorbed into TE), Kuminga (S+T 4 years, 100m)
Warriors receive: Simons, Niang
Celtics receive: Ball, Dosunmu, first round pick from the Bulls, protected first from the Warriors that likely converts to two 2nds

That seems like a pretty fair trade all the way around. Bulls get a scoring forward to go with their young core, and they really aren't giving up that much. Warriors get a scoring guard next to Curry and a crafty 4 to soak up some minutes for one last championship run.

The Celtics take an upside swing at two guards who could both be partial replacements for Holliday in different ways. Plus, we get future draft picks.

This also would give us access to both the trade exemption from Zinger and also (I think) our full MLE for signing other free agents. This gives us a lot more flexibility, which Stevens said was the focus.

I like the idea of a Lonzo Ball reclamation project if he doesn't make too much salary.  I always thought he could be a great fit with JT/JB.  Great passer / ball handler that can get those two the ball in the right spots and then we don't have to always rely on P&R.

[Who]

Honestly Simons salary being decently sized could mean he's a useful piece to obtaining a better player later down the line, assuming he plays well enough.

This is what I see as his main long term value.

We don't want him to leave as a free agent in 12 months time because we will lose the salary slot. That salary slot is needed to get a 4th star / quasi-star next to the Jays and D White. Like we had in Jrue Holiday in the 2024 Title.

I don't A Simons himself will get such a player but his salary slot will be useful for matching salaries. We will need to attach a bunch of picks alongside him to get a good player back. Players like A Simons (undersized combo guard no defense) have struggled with trade value in recent years. We have seen Miami be unable to get any top star with T Herro. We've seen how little CJ McCollum got when Portland traded him. It just ... isn't a player prototype that nets strong assets in return.

So the assets will need to be added to A Simons to get back a higher quality player. A bunch of picks (1sts). That is how we get our 4th star to put alongside our core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White. 

[Vermont Green]

Honestly Simons salary being decently sized could mean he's a useful piece to obtaining a better player later down the line, assuming he plays well enough.

This is what I see as his main long term value.

We don't want him to leave as a free agent in 12 months time because we will lose the salary slot. That salary slot is needed to get a 4th star / quasi-star next to the Jays and D White. Like we had in Jrue Holiday in the 2024 Title.

I don't A Simons himself will get such a player but his salary slot will be useful for matching salaries. We will need to attach a bunch of picks alongside him to get a good player back. Players like A Simons (undersized combo guard no defense) have struggled with trade value in recent years. We have seen Miami be unable to get any top star with T Herro. We've seen how little CJ McCollum got when Portland traded him. It just ... isn't a player prototype that nets strong assets in return.

So the assets will need to be added to A Simons to get back a higher quality player. A bunch of picks (1sts). That is how we get our 4th star to put alongside our core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White.

I agree with this assessment of Simons' value.  Herro and Poole are probably good comps for him in terms of production and trade value.  I see Herro and Poole as maybe a little higher in production value but Simons is at a little bit lower contract value.

But I am not sure that there was ever an expectation that Simons was going get back a "a 4th star / quasi-star".  I think that the best hope is to get back a decent rotation player or a couple of lesser rotation/bench players.  Even if you just look at it in terms of the salary slot, $27.7M, I am not sure how much of a star or quasi-star that buys anymore.  You are not going to get another Derrick White for that money.

What you also have to consider is that BOS can keep this $27.7M salary slot and be under the 2nd apron but not under the tax.  BOS may well look to get under the tax threshold for one season to reset.  Say you move Niang and Hauser for nothing, that would only give BOS about $2.8M of tax room.  There is no way to fill the rest of the roster for that amount.  I think BOS is going to give up that $27.7M salary slot (or a good share of it) in order to reset the tax. 

By my math, sending out Simons and Niang would create about $20M of tax "room" but that would be only 9 roster spots.  BOS would need to add 4-5 more players back on to the roster.  Maybe you can sign Kornet and then 3-4 rookies or vet min players.  That is it.  That is what a tax free roster is going to have to look like.

[celticinorlando]

Keep Simons until at least the deadline. If you trade him them fine. If he plays well and is a good fit and you extend him, then so be it. But trading Simons now makes no sense.

[JBcat]

Some Simons stats I have.

For players who took at least 150 catch and shoot and relocation 3?s last season only Isiah Joe and Steph Curry better Simons 40.5%. For Simons career on catch and shoot and relocation 3?s he is at 41.5%, the 5th best mark in the NBA with at least 500 attempts since 2018 when he was drafted. Simons took the 20th most step backs last season, and shoots them at his best right beyond the elbows where he shot 57.5 from these areas on 40 attempts. Among the 65 players who took at least 20 step backs in these areas last season, Simons was number 1 in efficiency. In general Simons was a very good mid range shooter last season. On 2 pointers from at least 15 ft out he shot 52.6% on 95 attempts. Among the 96 players who took at least 50 shots from this range, that was the 7th best mark. That?s the good.

Now in Portland his shot quality was weighed down and quite poor being the number 1 option, and doesn?t do a good job of drawing fouls. In Boston, he won?t have to worry about being the number 1 option, and hopefully get him more into the catch and shoot and relocation 3?s and mid range game where he is at his best. Especially when Tatum comes back that will be easier to do if Simons is still on the team at that point. Hopefully JM can coach up his defense a bit so it?s a bit more passable.

[Who]

Honestly Simons salary being decently sized could mean he's a useful piece to obtaining a better player later down the line, assuming he plays well enough.

This is what I see as his main long term value.

We don't want him to leave as a free agent in 12 months time because we will lose the salary slot. That salary slot is needed to get a 4th star / quasi-star next to the Jays and D White. Like we had in Jrue Holiday in the 2024 Title.

I don't A Simons himself will get such a player but his salary slot will be useful for matching salaries. We will need to attach a bunch of picks alongside him to get a good player back. Players like A Simons (undersized combo guard no defense) have struggled with trade value in recent years. We have seen Miami be unable to get any top star with T Herro. We've seen how little CJ McCollum got when Portland traded him. It just ... isn't a player prototype that nets strong assets in return.

So the assets will need to be added to A Simons to get back a higher quality player. A bunch of picks (1sts). That is how we get our 4th star to put alongside our core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White.

I agree with this assessment of Simons' value.  Herro and Poole are probably good comps for him in terms of production and trade value.  I see Herro and Poole as maybe a little higher in production value but Simons is at a little bit lower contract value.

But I am not sure that there was ever an expectation that Simons was going get back a "a 4th star / quasi-star".  I think that the best hope is to get back a decent rotation player or a couple of lesser rotation/bench players.  Even if you just look at it in terms of the salary slot, $27.7M, I am not sure how much of a star or quasi-star that buys anymore.  You are not going to get another Derrick White for that money.

What you also have to consider is that BOS can keep this $27.7M salary slot and be under the 2nd apron but not under the tax.  BOS may well look to get under the tax threshold for one season to reset.  Say you move Niang and Hauser for nothing, that would only give BOS about $2.8M of tax room.  There is no way to fill the rest of the roster for that amount.  I think BOS is going to give up that $27.7M salary slot (or a good share of it) in order to reset the tax. 

By my math, sending out Simons and Niang would create about $20M of tax "room" but that would be only 9 roster spots.  BOS would need to add 4-5 more players back on to the roster.  Maybe you can sign Kornet and then 3-4 rookies or vet min players.  That is it.  That is what a tax free roster is going to have to look like.

The salary slot / trade. We need that big salary to match with another big salary. We can always add to it. Take that $27-28mil and add midlevel salaries to it. Say Niang and Hauser. Now you got $40+mil. But having that substantial major contract in A Simons is pivotal to matching any big salary. Difficult to do with just midlevel salaries.

It is about finding a path to a 4th difference maker. If it is just Tatum, Jaylen and D White it is unlikely going to be enough to secure another title. They need another difference maker.

The team is likely to good to find one through the draft because they are unlikely to have any high end picks. The team doesn't have enough cap flexability to sign one in free agency. Tatum, Jaylen, and White make up about $150mil by themselves. So getting enough cap space to sign a $25-40mil player isn't on the cards either. It will have to be through the trade market.

A Simons and his deal will be key to having the flexability to get that player in the trade market. He is a solid player and throw a bunch of picks on top of him and you can make attractive offers to teams for lower level stars / guys who want out.

[johnnygreen]

I was hoping Brad was going to trade Simons and some second round picks for a future second rounder, to reduce payroll even further and help full out the roster.

[Jiri Welsch]

I was hoping Brad was going to trade Simons and some second round picks for a future second rounder, to reduce payroll even further and help full out the roster.

The depressing state of being a Celtics fan today: I could see this comment being both serious and sarcastic -- and both perspectives are kind of valid.