We're not that far off...

[Neurotic Guy]

There is a big difference between mid 20's and early 30's as basketball players, especially as the top 2 guys are currently recovering from injuries. We also have to remember that Boston made the Finals in large part that year because Middleton got hurt in the 1st round and didn't play at all in the 7 game 2nd round series against Boston.

I'm not so sure we are going to see either a Tatum or Brown as good as they were in 2022 let alone in 24 when Boston actually won.  Injured players in their 30's dont get better as players (and I know Tatum will be 28 next summer but I still think we've already seen his best).

The one true saving grace is the east doesn't look very good of course they also lost to the Knicks in the 2nd round with a team better than the one they currently have going forward.

Ugh. We?ve already seen his best is such a meaningless, gratuitously negative statement.  There is little basis for belief either way - so it?s just a choice to be negative or hopeful.  Regardless of examples either way, Tatum is Tatum and not anyone else - we will see how does - and any outcome is possible. 

I don?t see a title run next season as likely, but if this team without Tatum can hang in as a 4-6 seed, and if JT comes back sooner than expected, who knows?  Might at least be interesting.

I agree with Kuberski that one of the youngs can emerge - my money is on Baylor - I think decent chance he?s a decent rotation guy.  And unlike many here I see Walsh as possibly emerging as a regular minutes defensive pest.

Do you think Tatum will be as good a player as he was in 2024 again and if so when?

My honest answer is that there is as much reason to believe he?ll be as good as he ever was as there is to think he won?t.   Neither of us know the variables that are unique to JT that would make one or the other outcome more likely.  So you can be negative or you can be hopeful.

[Moranis]

There is a big difference between mid 20's and early 30's as basketball players, especially as the top 2 guys are currently recovering from injuries. We also have to remember that Boston made the Finals in large part that year because Middleton got hurt in the 1st round and didn't play at all in the 7 game 2nd round series against Boston.

I'm not so sure we are going to see either a Tatum or Brown as good as they were in 2022 let alone in 24 when Boston actually won.  Injured players in their 30's dont get better as players (and I know Tatum will be 28 next summer but I still think we've already seen his best).

The one true saving grace is the east doesn't look very good of course they also lost to the Knicks in the 2nd round with a team better than the one they currently have going forward.

Ugh. We?ve already seen his best is such a meaningless, gratuitously negative statement.  There is little basis for belief either way - so it?s just a choice to be negative or hopeful.  Regardless of examples either way, Tatum is Tatum and not anyone else - we will see how does - and any outcome is possible. 

I don?t see a title run next season as likely, but if this team without Tatum can hang in as a 4-6 seed, and if JT comes back sooner than expected, who knows?  Might at least be interesting.

I agree with Kuberski that one of the youngs can emerge - my money is on Baylor - I think decent chance he?s a decent rotation guy.  And unlike many here I see Walsh as possibly emerging as a regular minutes defensive pest.

Do you think Tatum will be as good a player as he was in 2024 again and if so when?

My honest answer is that there is as much reason to believe he?ll be as good as he ever was as there is to think he won?t.   Neither of us know the variables that are unique to JT that would make one or the other outcome more likely.  So you can be negative or you can be hopeful.

what are the reasons you believe he will be as good as ever?

[Goldstar88]

There is a big difference between mid 20's and early 30's as basketball players, especially as the top 2 guys are currently recovering from injuries. We also have to remember that Boston made the Finals in large part that year because Middleton got hurt in the 1st round and didn't play at all in the 7 game 2nd round series against Boston.

I'm not so sure we are going to see either a Tatum or Brown as good as they were in 2022 let alone in 24 when Boston actually won.  Injured players in their 30's dont get better as players (and I know Tatum will be 28 next summer but I still think we've already seen his best).

The one true saving grace is the east doesn't look very good of course they also lost to the Knicks in the 2nd round with a team better than the one they currently have going forward.

Ugh. We?ve already seen his best is such a meaningless, gratuitously negative statement.  There is little basis for belief either way - so it?s just a choice to be negative or hopeful.  Regardless of examples either way, Tatum is Tatum and not anyone else - we will see how does - and any outcome is possible. 

I don?t see a title run next season as likely, but if this team without Tatum can hang in as a 4-6 seed, and if JT comes back sooner than expected, who knows?  Might at least be interesting.

I agree with Kuberski that one of the youngs can emerge - my money is on Baylor - I think decent chance he?s a decent rotation guy.  And unlike many here I see Walsh as possibly emerging as a regular minutes defensive pest.

Do you think Tatum will be as good a player as he was in 2024 again and if so when?

My honest answer is that there is as much reason to believe he?ll be as good as he ever was as there is to think he won?t.   Neither of us know the variables that are unique to JT that would make one or the other outcome more likely.  So you can be negative or you can be hopeful.

what are the reasons you believe he will be as good as ever?

My main reasons would be: he just turned 27 a few months ago, so he?s still young. He went to one of the top surgeons in the country. I think it?s more likely that he will get back to his prior form like KD did.

[Ilikesports17]

There is a big difference between mid 20's and early 30's as basketball players, especially as the top 2 guys are currently recovering from injuries. We also have to remember that Boston made the Finals in large part that year because Middleton got hurt in the 1st round and didn't play at all in the 7 game 2nd round series against Boston.

I'm not so sure we are going to see either a Tatum or Brown as good as they were in 2022 let alone in 24 when Boston actually won.  Injured players in their 30's dont get better as players (and I know Tatum will be 28 next summer but I still think we've already seen his best).

The one true saving grace is the east doesn't look very good of course they also lost to the Knicks in the 2nd round with a team better than the one they currently have going forward.

Ugh. We?ve already seen his best is such a meaningless, gratuitously negative statement.  There is little basis for belief either way - so it?s just a choice to be negative or hopeful.  Regardless of examples either way, Tatum is Tatum and not anyone else - we will see how does - and any outcome is possible. 

I don?t see a title run next season as likely, but if this team without Tatum can hang in as a 4-6 seed, and if JT comes back sooner than expected, who knows?  Might at least be interesting.

I agree with Kuberski that one of the youngs can emerge - my money is on Baylor - I think decent chance he?s a decent rotation guy.  And unlike many here I see Walsh as possibly emerging as a regular minutes defensive pest.

Do you think Tatum will be as good a player as he was in 2024 again and if so when?

My honest answer is that there is as much reason to believe he?ll be as good as he ever was as there is to think he won?t.   Neither of us know the variables that are unique to JT that would make one or the other outcome more likely.  So you can be negative or you can be hopeful.

what are the reasons you believe he will be as good as ever?

My main reasons would be: he just turned 27 a few months ago, so he?s still young. He went to one of the top surgeons in the country. I think it?s more likely that he will get back to his prior form like KD did.

I think Tatum is more likely than most to get back to his prior self.

1. He's not the twitchiest, burstiest guy around. He does still rely on quickness and speed. But he's more of a length, strength, and fluidity guy. If this were Jaylen Brown I'd be more concerned.

2. He's younger than most achilles ruptures

3. By all accounts he has an exceptional work ethic which will be very important.

All that said, I still think it's more likely than not that he is a visibly diminished athlete when he returns. It's, I suppose, possible that he could make a leap as a shooter and continue to become smarter and use those two boosts to fully compensate for his reduced athleticism. It's just basically no one ever, and that includes KD, has had a 100% physical return from an achilles tear. I think Tatum has a shot to be the first because of the points outlined above. I just can't call it likely.

[bdm860]

The funny thing about '22, I did not go into it expecting much at all. I thought the team seemed like a mid-to-low seed playoff team, who with a little luck could make the 2nd round at best (only by catching a lucky match-up in the 1st round).

The team was coming off a .500 season in '21, and it seemed like they had more talent going out than coming back in (out: Kemba, Fournier, Tristan Thompson, Ojeleye; in: Horford, Kanter, Schroder, Hermangomez). I understood that Kemba's knees were shot, but he came into the prior season as an All-Star. And no way old man Horford is going to contribute much. None of the unproven young guys (Grant, Rob, Langford, Nesmith, Pritchard) excited me.

Brad quit as coach. When has any coach ever quit on a promising team? Coach's quit when the team's outlook isn't good. If a miracle worker like Brad was abandoning ship, what did that say about the team?

Danny "stepped down" as GM. Now I'm fully subscribed to the theory that Brad politicked his way into that role giving ownership an ultimatum (either make me GM, or I'm quitting altogether). Now we have a rookie GM (who couldn't manage the personalities of the '19 team) and a rookie head coach. Both of those sound like what you find on a rebuilding team.

And the main competition in the East had gotten better.

Milwaukee had just won a ring.

Miami got Lowry, Oladipo (who was averaging 20ppg the prior season), PJ Tucker (who just won a ring as a starter for the Bucks).

Brooklyn was going to figure it out with a full seasons and training camp for Durant, Harden, Irving, and was bringing in another vet in Millsap to go along with Griffin and Aldridge.

Philly and Atlanta were both on the rise. Philly would either work out the Simmons situation or flip him for a valuable asset (which they did), plus they signed Drummond. And Atlanta had just made the ECF with a young team lead by Trae Young, so you know they were only going to get better.

Bulls signed Lonzo and DeRozan.

Tatum and Brown would have to make huge leaps just to keep the team competitive, and I didn't see that happening.

So ya I wasn't excited about '22 at all. That window that I thought was open from '17-'21 was definitely closed, the team was going to have to rebuild, it was going to be a tough few years as they figured things out.

And what do you know, they lost 5 of their first 7, and were 3 games under .500 in January, and 11th in the East as late as mid-January. Told you the team was going to suck.

[Moranis]

There is a big difference between mid 20's and early 30's as basketball players, especially as the top 2 guys are currently recovering from injuries. We also have to remember that Boston made the Finals in large part that year because Middleton got hurt in the 1st round and didn't play at all in the 7 game 2nd round series against Boston.

I'm not so sure we are going to see either a Tatum or Brown as good as they were in 2022 let alone in 24 when Boston actually won.  Injured players in their 30's dont get better as players (and I know Tatum will be 28 next summer but I still think we've already seen his best).

The one true saving grace is the east doesn't look very good of course they also lost to the Knicks in the 2nd round with a team better than the one they currently have going forward.

Ugh. We?ve already seen his best is such a meaningless, gratuitously negative statement.  There is little basis for belief either way - so it?s just a choice to be negative or hopeful.  Regardless of examples either way, Tatum is Tatum and not anyone else - we will see how does - and any outcome is possible. 

I don?t see a title run next season as likely, but if this team without Tatum can hang in as a 4-6 seed, and if JT comes back sooner than expected, who knows?  Might at least be interesting.

I agree with Kuberski that one of the youngs can emerge - my money is on Baylor - I think decent chance he?s a decent rotation guy.  And unlike many here I see Walsh as possibly emerging as a regular minutes defensive pest.

Do you think Tatum will be as good a player as he was in 2024 again and if so when?

My honest answer is that there is as much reason to believe he?ll be as good as he ever was as there is to think he won?t.   Neither of us know the variables that are unique to JT that would make one or the other outcome more likely.  So you can be negative or you can be hopeful.

what are the reasons you believe he will be as good as ever?

My main reasons would be: he just turned 27 a few months ago, so he?s still young. He went to one of the top surgeons in the country. I think it?s more likely that he will get back to his prior form like KD did.

I think Tatum is more likely than most to get back to his prior self.

1. He's not the twitchiest, burstiest guy around. He does still rely on quickness and speed. But he's more of a length, strength, and fluidity guy. If this were Jaylen Brown I'd be more concerned.

2. He's younger than most achilles ruptures

3. By all accounts he has an exceptional work ethic which will be very important.

All that said, I still think it's more likely than not that he is a visibly diminished athlete when he returns. It's, I suppose, possible that he could make a leap as a shooter and continue to become smarter and use those two boosts to fully compensate for his reduced athleticism. It's just basically no one ever, and that includes KD, has had a 100% physical return from an achilles tear. I think Tatum has a shot to be the first because of the points outlined above. I just can't call it likely.

This is mostly correct, but I do think the way he plays is more a strain on the achilles than many players.  I will also add, Tatum is coming off his worst statistical season in his last 5 seasons (by totality of metrics).  Now maybe it was down year, but there is also a non-zero chance that 24 might have been his best self even if he hadn't gotten hurt.  He is still fairly young, but he entered the league at 19 and has been going on deep playoff runs virtually every season.  585 regular season games isn't a ton, but 121 playoff games, plus some US national team games and his mileage is building up.  Maybe with the rest his body recovers some and he does do something basically no other top level athlete has ever done and fully recover physically, I just don't see that as the likely outcome.