Offseason Thread

[Who]

If all the teams are basically healthy, the Warriors are at best the 4th best team in the west behind OKC, LAL, and HOU.  I think you could make cases that MIN, DEN, LAC, and DAL are better. They could make the Finals, but it will take some upsets in the playoffs to make it there.  The Warriors are old and a disjointed offensive team.  They don't make sense as a group offensively.  Too many poor players or bad fits.  When they were winning titles they had the perfect team around Curry to maximize his strengths. They don't have that any more and he has clearly lost a step.  If they have injuries at all during the season, they might not even make the playoffs (play in, sure, but winning those games won't be easy against younger teams like the Grizzlies, Spurs, etc.).

We'll see.  GSW were always pretty good when they had Curry, Clay, and Green.  Over the top good when Durant was added to this mix but this "big 3" did win a title in 2022 with just the core 3 along with role players like Wiggins, Looney, and so on.

Now they have a big 3 of Curry, Butler, and Green with a different mix of supporting players.  I think Butler is better than Clay, so I see this big 3 as better.  Then they have Hield/Horford over Wiggins/Looney.  You could keep going through the bench but the players matter less and less as you keep going down the list.  This team is older than the 2022 team, but I think it is a little better.  I agree that their health may not hold up, but they will manage the heck out of their minutes during the regular season to try and make a playoff run. 

So maybe 4th best regular season record, but I think better than 4th best for the playoffs.  OKC of course is the favorite, but after that, I am not buying HOU (Durant is less durable than the GSW stars) and DEN needs Murray healthy (which he usually isn't).  On LAL, I am not sure, they could be really good, one last run for LeBron, but they have risks and weaknesses too.  LAL vs. GSW would be a fun playoff match up.

Butler is better than Klay, but he is a much worse fit with Curry.  Butler is at his best with the ball. He isn't even a good shooter.  Klay could play off the ball and rarely missed an open 3.  Klay was also a SG and could defend the best guard on the other team allowing Curry more rest on the defensive side.  Butler can't defend guards so Curry can't hide defensively as well.  Sometimes talent isnt as important as fit.  Klay fit much better with Curry than Butler.

Klay could defend those guards for Steph in the 2015-18 Championship run. Klay couldn't defend those guards anymore in the 2022 Championship after all his injuries. So GSW have already won a title without that element on their roster.

Podz is a better defender than Klay. Both today and the 2022 version of Klay. He defends PGs far better than Klay and also defends SGs better than Klay.

[Moranis]

That is true of Podz, but he is also a much worse offensive player which offense was more the point I was making.  What made the Warriors so good was the best shooter of all time being surrounded by players that fed off his skill set.  Klay was the ideal teammate for Steph offensively.   Even guys like Wiggins played their roles well.  Butler significantly changes that dynamic and I don't see them as the same type of team and I don't think they are young enough or good enough to truly compete.  They've always end the elite offense to compete and they just don't have one anymore.

[Vermont Green]

That is true of Podz, but he is also a much worse offensive player which offense was more the point I was making.  What made the Warriors so good was the best shooter of all time being surrounded by players that fed off his skill set.  Klay was the ideal teammate for Steph offensively.   Even guys like Wiggins played their roles well.  Butler significantly changes that dynamic and I don't see them as the same type of team and I don't think they are young enough or good enough to truly compete.  They've always end the elite offense to compete and they just don't have one anymore.

I think you are looking at this the wrong way.  Klay was good because Curry made him better.  Curry is at that level, can carry a team, elevate those around him (even Wiggins).  It isn't that Klay or Wiggins made Curry better.  And now Curry will make Butler better and I think vise verse.  If they both hold up.

We'll see, but that is my prediction.

[snively]

I really like that Warriors squad.

Reminiscent of the Amare-less 05/06 Suns team that lost to the Dirk Mavs in the WCF. Curry as Nash-like offensive focal point. Butler/Green/Horford as a skilled, switchable two-way frontcourt a la Marion/Diaw/Tim Thomas. Moody/Payton as 3/D options a la Raja Bell. Hield as Eddie House style bench gunner. Podz/Kuminga as the Barbosa style streaky sparkplugs.

The defensive quality is excellent and they have the depth to keep the old legs fresh. Their passing ability offensively is superb and Butler, even old, is likely to remain a dangerous clutch creator alongside Curry.

Besides health, a lot of their upside hinges on Podz or Kuminga solidifying that 3rd option scoring role they need so badly. I've lost touch with all the intricacies of trade rules, so I don't know if Kuminga can be traded midseason for a mid level star.

If so I imagine they'll be players for whichever big name shakes loose by the trade deadline.

[Neurotic Guy]

I really like that Warriors squad.

Reminiscent of the Amare-less 05/06 Suns team that lost to the Dirk Mavs in the WCF. Curry as Nash-like offensive focal point. Butler/Green/Horford as a skilled, switchable two-way frontcourt a la Marion/Diaw/Tim Thomas. Moody/Payton as 3/D options a la Raja Bell. Hield as Eddie House style bench gunner. Podz/Kuminga as the Barbosa style streaky sparkplugs.

The defensive quality is excellent and they have the depth to keep the old legs fresh. Their passing ability offensively is superb and Butler, even old, is likely to remain a dangerous clutch creator alongside Curry.

Besides health, a lot of their upside hinges on Podz or Kuminga solidifying that 3rd option scring role they need so badly. I've lost touch with all the intricacies of trade rules, so I don't know if Kuminga can be traded midseason for a mid level star.

If so I imagine they'll be players for whichever big name shakes loose by the trade deadline.

Good for the Warriors for assembling a team that on paper looks like a contender.  We all know that if there is a downfall it will be age. Starting Lineup Al (39), Steph (37), Butler (36) Draymond (35), and the baby Hield (32).  Young men all, but not for NBA basketball.  Almost impossible to believe that they will be unscathed by injury or fatigue.

[Donoghus]

FWIW, the wise guys have Golden State at the 6th best odds to win the West at +1100.  Currently behind OKC, DEN, HOU, MIN, & LAL.

[Goldstar88]

Nick Smith, Jr. to the Lakers on a 2-way.

That?s a good signing for them. This is the kind of player that you should try to develop. Only 21 years old. He averaged 10ppg last year for Charlotte. Good shooter, career 37% from 3pt, 92% from the line.

[Moranis]

That is true of Podz, but he is also a much worse offensive player which offense was more the point I was making.  What made the Warriors so good was the best shooter of all time being surrounded by players that fed off his skill set.  Klay was the ideal teammate for Steph offensively.   Even guys like Wiggins played their roles well.  Butler significantly changes that dynamic and I don't see them as the same type of team and I don't think they are young enough or good enough to truly compete.  They've always end the elite offense to compete and they just don't have one anymore.

I think you are looking at this the wrong way.  Klay was good because Curry made him better.  Curry is at that level, can carry a team, elevate those around him (even Wiggins).  It isn't that Klay or Wiggins made Curry better.  And now Curry will make Butler better and I think vise verse.  If they both hold up.

We'll see, but that is my prediction.

Curry absolutely made Klay and everyone else better, but it is also because they ran an offense around Curry with players that could play in that offense.  They designed the team to fit the skill set of their best player (Durant was also perfect in that offense).  Even role players like Looney played their part well.  Butler just isn't that kind of player.  Butler is the kind of player you build around, not try to fit in with someone else.  That I think is the fundamental problem.  It is also an issue for the Lakers in having Luka and Lebron play together.  I just think they are better players and more capable of doing it than the Warriors are (it helps that Luka is just entering his prime and not on the wrong side of 35). 

The Warriors are certainly capable of winning the title next year, I just think it will be an uphill climb for them and will require them beating better teams than them in multiple playoff series, and that is just to make the Finals.  I'd heavily favor OKC, LAL, and DEN over them.  The latter because I don't think they can do anything with Jokic.  I'd favor Houston over them as well, though that would be closer to a pick-em.  Minnesota ran through them last year, but that was without Curry.  That changes things, though I'm not sure enough as they have real issues with Edwards and Randle torched them as well (he is strong enough to not be handled by Draymond and a lot faster than him).  And who knows about a team like the Clippers or even Mavs (especially if Kyrie comes back). And depending on seeding, they could easily be in the play-in or like the 6th seed and have to go through the 3rd seeded Wolves or Rockets, 2nd seeded Lakers, and 1st seeded Thunder (as an example).  I just don't see them as being good enough to do that.

[Goldstar88]

Still, the Sixers might have survived it all?or at least avoided becoming a punchline?if not for Embiid?s unsteady health and flawed approach. ?The organization was built around one guy who doesn?t trust anyone and mostly keeps to himself,? one former Sixers staffer said. When that one guy is putting up Wilt-like numbers, it can work. Not so much when he?s playing in just 19 games?a career low?and, in those rare moments when he does suit up, shooting a career-worst 44.4 percent from the field while looking timid, heavy, and slow.

Making matters worse was Embiid?s refusal to be transparent about his injury. Not just with the public. He walled himself off from the majority of people within the organization, too. Players often showed up to work not knowing whether the team?s star would be suiting up. Coaches often didn?t know Embiid?s status until he finished pregame warm-ups, sometimes less than an hour before tip-off. Nurse, who was forced to absorb the daily barrage of health questions, grew visibly frustrated. Knowing that even the slightest disclosure might be perceived by Embiid as betrayal no doubt added to the stress. ?With Joel, even if there is a plan in place, you can?t say anything about it,? said a second former team staffer.
-The Ringer

[Who]

I love the Jimmy & Steph duo.

I believe they are a great fit with one another. Steph needs an iso-scorer. A one-on-one player. He is not great at that stuff. He needs someone who can play one-on-one when things get bogged down / when 3s aren't falling. That is part of why Durant was so lethal on GSW. Not just that he fitted their jump-shooting offense but that he diversified their offense with improved one-on-one scoring.

I do not believe players need to be an exact fit with one another. Kobe and Shaq were not an exact fit but they were still a juggernaught. Kobe could never do his full MJ impression with Shaq on the same team as him because he couldn't get enough post ups / mid-post isolations that MJ lived off of with Shaq getting all his touches in the post. So we didn't see full Kobe on offense until Shaq left. Doesn't matter. They sacrificed a bit because together they were an exception duo.

There is some sacrifice in Steph / Jimmy partnership but not that much. It is closer to Shaq / Kobe levels. And together Steph & Jimmy are fantastic. They have a brilliant 1-2 game as well setting screens for one another. Playing the two man game. Overloading sides of court. Or switching and putting one on the weakside to attack when the opposition overloads strong side. It is fantastic.

[Who]

Golden State's main issue will be whether they can get a 3rd scorer alongside them. Podz wasn't consistent enough in the playoffs last season. He was late in the regular season. He wasn't early in the regular season. Kuminga is another option. Or via trade. They need that 3rd option to help them.

Then they will need only 2/3 of Steph / Jimmy / 3rd scorer to play well to give them a great chance of winning. Right now they get vulnerable if only one of Jimmy / Steph play well. If both play well, they are dynamite.

[Moranis]

If Curry and Butler were in their prime, then sure the talent could overcome the fit issues, but they are both far from their prime and have been getting worse for years.  Butler just had his lowest scoring season since his 4th year and has gone down 3 straight years (after being steady for like a decade).  Curry's shooting has been getting worse as has his overall production.  They aren't young and the talent isn't what it was.  We saw this play out with those Lakers.  When Shaq started to deteriorate, the Lakers stopped winning championships (he goes to Miami in a better situation and wins a title again).  Same thing in Miami with Lebron and Wade.  When Wade was in his prime, their talent was enough, but the minute Wade lost a step, the poor fit doomed them and they couldn't hang with a San Antonio team they beat the prior year.  Now the Warriors are much deeper than the Lakers and Heat were, though they have no one like Lebron/Kobe or in the case of the Heat, a Bosh on their roster.  The Warriors were still able to win in 2022 (even after Curry started declining) because they still had a team that fit very well together and allowed someone like Wiggins to play the best ball of his career, while Curry was still elite (when he needed to be) and post-injury Klay was still effective.

I just think the Warriors are far too old (and not quite talented enough) to be a true contender.  Vegas agrees, MGM has the Warriors at +3000 to win the title, which is same odds as the Hawks and behind (in order) the Thunder, Nuggets, Cavs, Knicks, Wolves, Rockets, Lakers, Magic, Clippers (the Clips are +2000 so a good deal ahead of the Hawks/Warriors).  They are just ahead of the Pistons who are +3300. So Vegas has very little faith in them as a title team.  I agree.  I just don't see it.