Jrue the odd man out?

[jambr380]

If we do look to move Jrue, I don't think it'll be as simple as trading him into another team's cap space since only the Nets fit that bill. It'll also be to a team that legitimately wants him (so I don't think we'll be giving up 1sts in order to get off him). I'd imagine we would try and use the 125% rule and other team's exceptions at least a couple of times in order cut that salary down to very little or nothing.

An example might be a team like Orlando Magic. He'd be an amazing fit there for a young team that has promise. They signed KCP last year and he has not been working out the way they had hoped. Would they be willing to give up draft assets in order to 'trade up' for Jrue? KCP and Jett Howard get you there, while cutting $5M in the process. You then could try to trade Howard and his $5.5M salary into an exception for nothing. And then use the draft capital you got from ORL to turn KCP and his $21.6M  into smaller, less expensive parts.

And even if you don't and decide to move Hauser into another team's MLE for more picks, you've now cut around $21M total. That's not enough to re-sign Horford or Luke (so I'd imagine moving KCP would be a priority here), but this is just an example of being able to cut salary without giving up assets to do so. While Jrue maybe too expensive for us, I do legitimately believe he still provides value and experience to the right team.

[celticinorlando]

Jrue's value is in the playoffs. It will be why the Cs make another long run.

I'd rather keep him and move KP if it comes to that. KP is just too fragile. I know his deal ends sooner which makes this complicated.

I think the core pieces are always going to be JT, JB and D White. Would like to see PP in the group also.

[slamtheking]

I think it all comes down to how the team performs in the playoffs this year. 
- win the title --- everyone's back. period
- Finals loss -- if due to someone underperforming other than Tatum and White, I think they become trade bait.  That could be KP due to health, Jrue with underwhelming performance or even Jaylen if he has doesn't up his level of play from what we've seen this year.  depending on how they lose, maybe no one goes but I'd be surprised.
- anything short of the finals -- someone's gone if not a couple of people.  Jrue's the most likely.  KP could be the second option depending on who they can get in. 

key issue is that when healthy, and even without perfect health, this group has shown it can win the title as it did last year.  I don't think they can do it this year without their full top 9 available for each game after the first round. 

Any moves they make have to bring in quality players to fill the holes in the roster they'd be opening up.  There's no one off the bench that could step in and provide what the starters are providing even though they can come in and be productive.  The closest would be PP -- he's more of an offensive threat than Jrue at this point but he's not nearly the defender that Jrue is -- not to mention that moving him to the starting lineup leaves us without a guard off the bench (depending on who comes back in a trade).  Al does a good job when he starts but he's at the tail end of his career and not someone the team can consider for long-term title contention.

[timpiker]

Trust in Brad.  I don't think we'll purge anyone.

[Roy H.]

I'm just trying to think of trades that would work for both sides that end up clearing a at least $18 million from our books next year.

Jaylen Brown for Desmond Bane? 

That gets us almost all the way below the second apron.  It would really hurt our size, though.

JB for Bam Adebayo?

[Birdman]

Doubt Celtics will ever trade Brown unless he ask for it

[Vermont Green]

I think we're projected to be about $17.7 million above the second apron before signing any free agents.  So, that's the goal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total

It does seem like the greater concern is getting under the 2nd apron threshold for the 2025-26 season ($207,875,000 per Spotrac), based on Wyc's statements.  The tax threshold appears to be lower than this at $187,897,000.  It sounds like they are willing to pay the tax but want to avoid the repeater 2nd apron penalties.  The $17.7 they are projected to be over does not include Kornet, Horford, or Craig.  Don't see how they get under the 2nd apron for 2025-26 without trading a starter.

If I understand correctly, if you are over the second apron 2 years in a row, your future first round pick (7 years out or something) goes to the end of the first round (essentially becomes a second round pick) but that you can get the pick back if you then stay below the 2nd apron for at least 2 of the next 5 years?  I believe the Celtics were over the apron in 2023-245 and will be over in 2024-25.  So they could be over in 2025-26 but then would need to get back under it by 2026-27 and beyond to avoid the draft pick penalties.  Can someone confirm?  Is this correct?

[jambr380]

I think we're projected to be about $17.7 million above the second apron before signing any free agents.  So, that's the goal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total

It does seem like the greater concern is getting under the 2nd apron threshold for the 2026-26 season ($207,875,000 per Spotrac), based on Wyc's statements.  The tax threshold appears to be lower than this at $187,897,000.  It sounds like they are willing to pay the tax but want to avoid the repeater 2nd apron penalties.  The $17.7 they are projected to be over does not include Kornet, Horford, or Craig.  Don't see how they get under the 2nd apron for 2025-26 without trading a starter.

If I understand correctly, if you are in the second apron 2 years in a row, your future first round pick (7 years out or something) goes to the end of the first round (essentially becomes a second round pick) but that you can get the pick back if you then stay below the 2nd apron for at least 2 of the next 5 years?  I believe the Celtics were over the apron in 2023-245 and will be over in 2024-25.  So they could be over in 2025-26 but then would need to get back under it by 2026-27 and beyond to avoid the draft pick penalties.  Can someone confirm?  Is this correct?

Just want to add that last year was kind-of a warning year. None of the long term penalties associated with the 2nd apron actually counted against teams. They presented the framework and you couldn't do anything in the immediate term (make use of the MLE, combine salary, send out cash in a trade), but they basically gave teams a year to get back under if they wanted to. So the draft pick stuff really only comes into play if we are over it again next year.

[RodyTur10]

I'm just trying to think of trades that would work for both sides that end up clearing a at least $18 million from our books next year.

Jaylen Brown for Desmond Bane? 

That gets us almost all the way below the second apron.  It would really hurt our size, though.

JB for Bam Adebayo?

Boston in: Sabonis + Harris
Boston out: Brown + Holiday

Sacramento in: Stewart + Ivey + Holland + Fontecchio
Sacramento out: Sabonis

Detroit in: Brown + Holiday
Detroit out: Harris + Stewart + Ivey + Holland + Fontecchio

I believe the Pistons should sweeten the pot with some assets (picks)? However this would save the Celtics $15M of salary next year directly (not even calculating luxury and repeater tax benefits). And the years after (Harris contract is an expiring) this would save $45M and $48M directly, thus a huge reduction in personnel costs.

Assuming Horford retires this would be our new rotation. With Sabonis now again shooting threes and the combination of main skills between Sabonis (rebounding, passing) and Porzingis (shooting, blocking) that would be a very interesting big men combo.

White / Hauser / Tatum / Sabonis / Porzingis
Pritchard / (VET MIN) / Craig(?) / Harris / Kornet
Walsh / Scheierman / Queta

Why for the Kings?

The Kings will probably make the play-in, but could easily lose these game(s) and not make the playoffs. They're probably realizing (considering they already traded Fox) that Sabonis, DeRozan and (now) LaVine is not enough to get it done in the West. A rebuild with young promising highly drafted players incoming along with Keegan Murray and Keon Ellis might be their best course.

Why for the Pistons?

The Pistons will make the playoffs and there they'll find they are lacking scoring power and experience besides Cunningham. The veterans Holiday and Brown is a big step forward for them to become a serious outsider in the East. It will cost some young talent and assets, but they keep the best pieces for a nice fysical starting line-up with Cunningham/Holiday/Brown/Thompson/Duren.

[Donoghus]

I'm just trying to savor this period of Celtics basketball as much as possible and live in the moment. 

This [dang] CBA.

[slamtheking]

I'm just trying to savor this period of Celtics basketball as much as possible and live in the moment. 

This [dang] CBA.

yeah, figures just when we get back to the top of the mountain with the players to stay there a while, the league porks us over with this crappy CBA

[Phantom255x]

I'm just trying to savor this period of Celtics basketball as much as possible and live in the moment. 

This [dang] CBA.

yeah, figures just when we get back to the top of the mountain with the players to stay there a while, the league porks us over with this crappy CBA

It sucks but every team is gonna have to deal with this too. Ultimately, I still think as long as we keep Jaylen/Tatum/White/Porzingis for a while we'll always remain a contender. Yes KP has his injury concerns and won't be counted on for a full season but he's still valuable to this team and it's fine as long as we can also find another young PF/C to go with Kornet/Queta. Maybe a Jrue or Hauser trade can net us a PF/C back as well, doesn't have to be a star just someone who can play it solidly.

Even a team like OKC, when they have to start paying a ton of guys and get into the second apron it could get dicey there too. Remember, the same thing happened to them with Harden/Westbrook/Durant and ultimately they were quick to break it up.

[Goldstar88]

I'm just trying to savor this period of Celtics basketball as much as possible and live in the moment. 

This [dang] CBA.

yeah, figures just when we get back to the top of the mountain with the players to stay there a while, the league porks us over with this crappy CBA

It sucks but every team is gonna have to deal with this too. Ultimately, I still think as long as we keep Jaylen/Tatum/White/Porzingis for a while we'll always remain a contender. Yes KP has his injury concerns and won't be counted on for a full season but he's still valuable to this team and it's fine as long as we can also find another young PF/C to go with Kornet/Queta. Maybe a Jrue or Hauser trade can net us a PF/C back as well, doesn't have to be a star just someone who can play it solidly.

Even a team like OKC, when they have to start paying a ton of guys and get into the second apron it could get dicey there too. Remember, the same thing happened to them with Harden/Westbrook/Durant and ultimately they were quick to break it up.

Yeah, not fun to think about, but it?s likely going to be a reality. I really don?t think they should move Sam, though. He compliments the J?s so well and his defense is much better than it used to be. He?s also on a very team friendly deal for the next 4 years, basically through his prime years. In the games he?s started this year, Sam is averaging 13pts/4rebs on shooting splits of 49/46/100. In the final year of Hauser?s contract, he?s making $12M. It?s one of the best contracts in the NBA.

[keevsnick]

I think we're projected to be about $17.7 million above the second apron before signing any free agents.  So, that's the goal.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/cap/_/year/2025/sort/cap_total

It does seem like the greater concern is getting under the 2nd apron threshold for the 2025-26 season ($207,875,000 per Spotrac), based on Wyc's statements.  The tax threshold appears to be lower than this at $187,897,000.  It sounds like they are willing to pay the tax but want to avoid the repeater 2nd apron penalties.  The $17.7 they are projected to be over does not include Kornet, Horford, or Craig.  Don't see how they get under the 2nd apron for 2025-26 without trading a starter.

If I understand correctly, if you are over the second apron 2 years in a row, your future first round pick (7 years out or something) goes to the end of the first round (essentially becomes a second round pick) but that you can get the pick back if you then stay below the 2nd apron for at least 2 of the next 5 years?  I believe the Celtics were over the apron in 2023-245 and will be over in 2024-25.  So they could be over in 2025-26 but then would need to get back under it by 2026-27 and beyond to avoid the draft pick penalties.  Can someone confirm?  Is this correct?

Not quite. They would need to be below 3 of the next 4 years. If a team is in the 2nd Apron for a given year then their draft pick gets penalized if they are in the 2nd Apron two or more of the following four years.

The C's are already locked in the 2nd apron in 24-25. If they are in the 2nd Apron again in 25-26 they would need to stay out of it in the next seasons of 26-27, 27-28 and 28-29 in order to avoid getting their pick sent to the back of the first round.

So getting out of the 2nd Apron next year isn't actually all that critical, there is no real reaosn they shouldn't be other than tax. They could be in it next year and as long as they clear it in the following three years they won't suffer any draft pick penalty. I expect they'll still be in it next year, because a 2 years in then 3 years out pattern is sort of optimal to maximize spending power and becasue it will be hard to clear 20 million from the books next year without hurting the team significantly.

If they don't want to bring back KP they could simply let him expire after 25-26, and that would get them out without having to do anything else going forward. But they would still be fantastically expensive NEXT year. What I sort of expect is a Holiday trade for piece(s) making less over a shorter time period than he is allowing them, to save a big chunk next year, but still be over the 2nd apron, followed by getting out completely in 26-27.

Some examples would be swapping Holiday for somebody making around 20 million next year but is also expiring. Someone like Marcus Smart, Nikola Vucevic, Duncan Robinson, Colin Sexton, Harrison Barnes. The C's would save 10-14 million in salary and close to 100 million in Salary+Tax next year then be completely off the money and below the second apron the following year when that guy expires.

[slamtheking]

I'm just trying to savor this period of Celtics basketball as much as possible and live in the moment. 

This [dang] CBA.

yeah, figures just when we get back to the top of the mountain with the players to stay there a while, the league porks us over with this crappy CBA

It sucks but every team is gonna have to deal with this too. Ultimately, I still think as long as we keep Jaylen/Tatum/White/Porzingis for a while we'll always remain a contender. Yes KP has his injury concerns and won't be counted on for a full season but he's still valuable to this team and it's fine as long as we can also find another young PF/C to go with Kornet/Queta. Maybe a Jrue or Hauser trade can net us a PF/C back as well, doesn't have to be a star just someone who can play it solidly.

Even a team like OKC, when they have to start paying a ton of guys and get into the second apron it could get dicey there too. Remember, the same thing happened to them with Harden/Westbrook/Durant and ultimately they were quick to break it up.

Yeah, not fun to think about, but it?s likely going to be a reality. I really don?t think they should move Sam, though. He compliments the J?s so well and his defense is much better than it used to be. He?s also on a very team friendly deal for the next 4 years, basically through his prime years. In the games he?s started this year, Sam is averaging 13pts/4rebs on shooting splits of 49/46/100. In the final year of Hauser?s contract, he?s making $12M. It?s one of the best contracts in the NBA.

yeah, Hauser's deal isn't the back breaker here. 

C's are either looking it having locked into this crew for another season, CBA consequences be [dang]ed or they're going to have to move a couple of starters to get under the second apron with enough room to bring in serviceable players that won't put the team back over it.  I don't know if this incentivizes the team to use those distant draft picks that slide to the end as trade chips since they won't have a lot of value.  of course, having said that, Baylor's starting to look like a real player lately so may not be the bust he looked like earlier this season.