What's Our Starting Center Plan Beyond 2025 If KP Isn't Here Long Term?

[Muzzy66]

I like Timelord as a possibility for cheap down the road.

I wonder, this offseason could we trade Porzingis, 1-2 bench/young players and a bunch of picks to a team like Sacramento for Sabonis? Assuming they want to go into rebuild and don't want to pay Sabonis.

williams has played in the following number of games for the past 3 seasons.

2022-23 = 35 games
2023-24 = 5 games
2024-25 = 10 games

he is out now with an ankle injury, but maybe will return soon. i wish him the best, but his injury history is grim.

moreover, the 2021-22 williams is gone forever. even when he plays now, which as we see is rare, he is NOT at this level any longer.

He?s injury prone for sure, but I?m not sure this statement is true. I watched the Portland/Minnesota game and Rob had 19pts, 9rebs, 3ast, 3blk, 3stls in 25mins of play. 8-9 from the field. Looked as good as he ever has.

I think context is important for Rob. 

Right now he's playing on a lottery bound team without any real star players or any major motivation. 

Boston was a good fit for Rob I think because the team has so many scorers that we didnt need to ask too much of him - all he needed to do is go in, defend the paint, rebound the ball, and basically just play his role.  That is probably a dream position to be in for a guy like Rob.  Aside from that we were also a team that had championship aspirations year after year, with a starting center spot that was pretty much always open to anybody who was able to prove themselves - so there would likely ahve been a tonne of motivation to want to excel at what he did.

The problem with Rob is health.  This team has had it's share of injury prone players - Porzingis included.  I think Rob is by far the worst of the lot in that regard.  No matter how huge his impact is, it's pretty much meaningless if you're only going to get 30-40 games a year out of him.  Frankly, I think we'd even be better off with someone like Dwight Howard or Andre Drummond at a vet min then Rob Williams, because at least those guys might have some capacity to suit up consistently - and they can largely do what Rob does on defence and on the boards. 

Other then that we might have to hope we can get lucky and find a high qualty starting calibre veteran center who is willing to take a sacrifice and sign for a vet min for a chance to make a championship run.  Lebron managed to pick up nice veteran players on vet min deals all the time when he was in Miami / Cleveland for exactly that reason, so hopefully we can do the same.

[ozgod]

I like Timelord as a possibility for cheap down the road.

I wonder, this offseason could we trade Porzingis, 1-2 bench/young players and a bunch of picks to a team like Sacramento for Sabonis? Assuming they want to go into rebuild and don't want to pay Sabonis.

Timelords made of china?he breaks every time he is touched

[BitterJim]

Hopefully we can draft and develop someone.  The C's are going to need young guards and bigs next year and the year after.  After 2025 One of Jrue, Dwhite and Porzingas will be gone.  Pending Porzingas health and how much he would command in a new contract will determine what he does.  I can also see Jrue retiring after 2025.  If not a contender would love to have him to chase a chip if he's still performing at a high level.  I'd prefer the C's keep Dwhite over Jrue because of his age.  I'd hope Zinger could be resigned in the 20m per year range.  I also see Hauser being moved as well if Baylor is ready to take his minutes.

Jrue's contract goes through 2027-28 (which is a player option). He doesn't seem like the type to sign an extension like that if he intended to retire one year into the deal (nor can I see him just leaving $70-100 million on the table like that)

[Surferdad]

Hopefully we can draft and develop someone.  The C's are going to need young guards and bigs next year and the year after.  After 2025 One of Jrue, Dwhite and Porzingas will be gone.  Pending Porzingas health and how much he would command in a new contract will determine what he does.  I can also see Jrue retiring after 2025.  If not a contender would love to have him to chase a chip if he's still performing at a high level.  I'd prefer the C's keep Dwhite over Jrue because of his age.  I'd hope Zinger could be resigned in the 20m per year range.  I also see Hauser being moved as well if Baylor is ready to take his minutes.

That is a lot of Ifs. A lot can happen, notably including moves that are driven by the salary cap/2nd apron.
The only thing I am reasonably sure of is that Tatum and Brown will be here for a while.

[Big333223]

If KP just can't get healthy and stay healthy, using his contract in a trade with a team looking for picks will make a lot of sense.

[boscel33]

I love that we're talking about what's next for our Center position.  Like the year we drafted Smart, our true need was a big, and we passed on Randle amongst others.  Last year, Kyle Filipowski was sitting there for the taking (yes, he's a center), and we chose Scheierman because why not, we needed a 20th wing.  The C's way overthink the draft at times.

[SparzWizard]

I love that we're talking about what's next for our Center position.  Like the year we drafted Smart, our true need was a big, and we passed on Randle amongst others.  Last year, Kyle Filipowski was sitting there for the taking (yes, he's a center), and we chose Scheierman because why not, we needed a 20th wing.  The C's way overthink the draft at times.

They seek centers who can shoot 3s and defend the 3 point line

[ozgod]

Whatever the plan is, I have a feeling that we will have been spoiled by the fact that ownership spent nearly $190m on our payroll last year to help us win Banner 18, where we have literal and figurative All-Stars in every position, plus another one on the bench. Then over $200m this year, and then the next 4 years they have active cap commitments of $225m, $207m, $218m, and $179m, not to mention the holds that would add to our cap allocations and get counted for tax purposes...this year Spotrac estimates we will pay $65m in tax, and next year, $223m.

My napkin math just on those "committed numbers" adds up to $1.029 billion in payroll the next 5 years, to 2029, and based on luxury tax estimates for this year and next an additional $288m in tax just till 2026.



And remember the luxury tax is designed to punish repeat offenders - those who have exceeded it three of the past 4 years. So assuming we don't get below it at least one year of the next three or four (I can't remember when we started paying it) we could potentially pay much more per year than that $223m in 2026-27 or beyond.

It's a sobering thought...so beyond 2025, if we don't extend KP for a lower amount, I would temper my expectations on the type of player we might be able to get to replace him. It might end up being a homegrown player on the cheap, like Kornet, or Queta. Or draft someone. Or we trade KP as an expiring to try to get some assets. I guess much depends on whether we are still contending by then, and whether the new owners are willing to maintain the same level of spending as Wyc and Co have started.

We really do owe Wyc and Co a debt of gratitude for going all in last season, even if the new owners will eventually have to foot the bill 

[Vermont Green]

I love that we're talking about what's next for our Center position.  Like the year we drafted Smart, our true need was a big, and we passed on Randle amongst others.  Last year, Kyle Filipowski was sitting there for the taking (yes, he's a center), and we chose Scheierman because why not, we needed a 20th wing.  The C's way overthink the draft at times.

They seek centers who can shoot 3s and defend the 3 point line

Brad Stevens' draft picks:

2021    Bergarin
2022    Davison
2023    Walsh
2024    Scheierman/Watson

Not a whole lot there but he also didn't have a whole lot of pick value to work with.  We already have 4 players whose primary position is center; Porzingis, Horford, Kornet, Queta.  I think what they want/need is someone more in the Porzingis/Horford mold, not the Kornet mold (which seems to be what Filipowski is).  Filipowski may have more ceiling than Kornet, but isn't Luke Kornet about what Filipowski projected to be as a second round pick?

I am not sure what the answer to the future PF/C problem is.  I have my doubts that Filipowski would be the answer, but you never know.

[obnoxiousmime]

I love that we're talking about what's next for our Center position.  Like the year we drafted Smart, our true need was a big, and we passed on Randle amongst others.  Last year, Kyle Filipowski was sitting there for the taking (yes, he's a center), and we chose Scheierman because why not, we needed a 20th wing.  The C's way overthink the draft at times.

You're making an assumption that Filipowski doesn't suck. I'm sure the Celtics just liked Scheierman better and usually you want to draft the best player available and not chase a need. Honestly, most of the guys taken at that part of the draft are not going to be ready to play for a contending team anyway.

Hauser's relatively tradeable contract might have been a factor as well. Even though Hauser is probably the better shooter, Scheierman could fill the role adequately at a much cheaper rate. Therefore, drafting Scheierman actually does qualify as a replacement plan, just not for the role you envisioned. He can develop his first year and then this offseason when it's widely expected salary will be cut, they have an option of dealing Hauser.

Finally, the short answer is they don't have a plan because guys like Porzingis and Horford don't grow on trees. That's why Horford was a 3rd overall pick and Porzingis a 4th (I think). Filipowski isn't really a replacement other than being white, tall, a C, and being able to hit 3s.

Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE for the Cs to have drafted and developed a big man the last few years, but it's not Porzingis I'm worried about replacing. It's Horford. Horford is the secret sauce to everything. Strong enough to play inside against the best centers in the game and quick enough to competently defend guards and wings on switches. I think that his durability and versatility actually makes him more indispensable than Porzingis.

If Horford can't play closer to what he was last year and Porzingis continues to be in and out all year, we're in trouble against the better teams.

[BitterJim]

I love that we're talking about what's next for our Center position.  Like the year we drafted Smart, our true need was a big, and we passed on Randle amongst others.  Last year, Kyle Filipowski was sitting there for the taking (yes, he's a center), and we chose Scheierman because why not, we needed a 20th wing.  The C's way overthink the draft at times.

It's funny, because what I remember from the 2014 draft was fans saying that we shouldn't draft a big because we already had our bigs of the future: Olynyk (drafter 1 year earlier), Sullinger (drafted 2 years earlier), and maybe Fab Melo if he figured things out (drafted 2 years earlier).

All that's to say, draft picks rarely help fill the holes on the current roster (especially late picks), and the holes that are on the roster when they are ready might be way different than you expected at draft time. Your best bet is taking whoever you think has the best chance of being a good pro, and worrying about filling holes later through trades and (if you're a low-salary team) FA signings.

[Who]

Filipowski is an impressive young player. Maybe projects more as a backup big than a starter. Reminiscent of Olynyk or Mo Wagner. A skilled high post center. He can shoot, he can drive, he can pass. He is better on defense than expected. He rebounds. He is not a shot-blocker but he moves well on team D. Enough for a backup big but maybe not a starter.

He would have been a nice get for our bench.

[Vermont Green]

In terms of our bigs, I am starting to get more concerned.  Porzingis will always have durability issues.  I don't think he was quite ready to come back.  I think he had more strength and conditioning work to do.  That is OK in a way.  You kind of expect that.  It is just what you get with Porzingis.

But Horford has not been playing as well lately either.  It is probably more accurate to say not shooting as well lately:

First 13 games (to Nov 21):       48% from 3 / +6.7
Last 14 games (from Nov 22):   26% from 3 / +6.2

His plus/minus, as a gauge of his impact on the game, is still good, so his defense, passing, rebounding, are all still good, but the shooting from 3 is way down.  Horford doesn't play every game, he has played in 27 of 34.  19-8 in games he played, 6-1 in games he didn't.  We seem to do fine if we have one of Porzingis or Horford playing well, we are great if both are playing well, but there is going to be a drop off if we don't have either.

For context, last season, Horford was 42% from 3 and +6.5.  He stands at 36% from 3 overall for this season and +6.4.  5.5 of his 7.6 FGA pre game are from 3 so his 3P% is a big factor for him in terms of offense/shooting.  I feel like he was getting better looks as the defenses didn't respect his shot as much.  They are on to him now and making it harder (as well as just not hitting them).

[Phantom255x]

If things get ugly for them in the next year maybe Bam could be a target?

Sabonis would be the dream in 2026

[boscel33]

I love that we're talking about what's next for our Center position.  Like the year we drafted Smart, our true need was a big, and we passed on Randle amongst others.  Last year, Kyle Filipowski was sitting there for the taking (yes, he's a center), and we chose Scheierman because why not, we needed a 20th wing.  The C's way overthink the draft at times.

It's funny, because what I remember from the 2014 draft was fans saying that we shouldn't draft a big because we already had our bigs of the future: Olynyk (drafter 1 year earlier), Sullinger (drafted 2 years earlier), and maybe Fab Melo if he figured things out (drafted 2 years earlier).

All that's to say, draft picks rarely help fill the holes on the current roster (especially late picks), and the holes that are on the roster when they are ready might be way different than you expected at draft time. Your best bet is taking whoever you think has the best chance of being a good pro, and worrying about filling holes later through trades and (if you're a low-salary team) FA signings.

I remember it as needing a big, like this states from SI:

Boston Celtics
Draft picks: No. 6, 17
Needs: Roster clarity, frontcourt building blocks

We're closing in on the one-year anniversary of the Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett blockbuster trade agreement, and the Celtics, to no one's great surprise, possess arguably the most mismatched collection of players in the league. Rajon Rondo, a trusty pass-first point guard, has no one to pass to. Jeff Green, a nice third option, has no alpha or beta dogs to lean on. There are multiple veterans who have no clear role going forward (Gerald Wallace, Joel Anthony) and some younger players (Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk) that are lacking in star power. The over/under for number of Boston trades before opening night should probably be set at 2.5, even if Danny Ainge can't pull off the Kevin Love dream deal. It's hard to point to anyone on the roster and deem him untradeable, which does allow for a lot of flexibility on draft night. If Boston delays its major moves and uses both of its picks, they'll surely want to add some size and depth inside. Would Joel Embiid, if he somehow slips out of the top five, make the most sense here? Otherwise, the Celtics should have a shot at Noah Vonleh, Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon, and any of the three would be worthwhile additions. Boston ranked in the bottom-five for three-point percentage last season, and they should be able to find a perimeter threat that could help perk up the league's fourth-worst offense at No. 17.