Our Offense

[Roy H.]

From CLNS:

They?re 3.3 points per 100 possessions worse this year than last season?s legendary 122.2 offensive rating.

Compared to last season, the Celtics have attempted roughly four fewer shots per game in the restricted area and nearly three fewer mid-rangers each night in favor of an extra corner three and 6.9 more above the break threes. Their efficiency fell from 43% in the corner to 38.6% while they?re shooting only 35.8% above the break, down from 37.7%. It?s early and a few hot games could swing these numbers drastically, but they could represent a diminishing return on ramping up their already league-leading three-point attempts from 42.5 per game to 50.4.

So, way more threes has equated to an appreciably worse offense.  Do we need to make adjustments?

[Who]

Offense is general is down. I remember one of those Adam Silver talking points about his rule changes and helping defenses more this year were working because offense is down across the league.

Average off rating 2023-24 - 115.3 per 100
Average off rating 2024-25 - 113.1 per 100

So a large chunk of that Celtics drop-off offensively is being seen by teams across the league. A 2.2 points per 100 drop off of the 3.3 points per 100 mentioned above. 2/3rds of it.

[Neurotic Guy]

Almost everyone is shooting worse from 3 (not PP). JB, Jrue, Sam and KP are shooting significantly worse.  JB is also shooting significantly worse from two. Last year he was absolutely money from midrange. Good but not great this year. Idk what the fall off in shooting is about, they seem to be getting good looks and missing.  Shoot like last year and the offense will seem much better

[Roy H.]

Almost everyone is shooting worse from 3 (not PP). JB, Jrue, Sam and KP are shooting significantly worse.  JB is also shooting significantly worse from two. Last year he was absolutely money from midrange. Good but not great this year. Idk what the fall off in shooting is about, they seem to be getting good looks and missing.  Shoot like last year and the offense will seem much better

The question is, is the increase in volume leading to the decrease in efficiency?

We're taking 8 more threes than last year.  That's a lot.  We're taking four fewer shots in the paint.  Are we becoming easier to guard? 

[Who]

JB is also shooting significantly worse from two. Last year he was absolutely money from midrange. Good but not great this year.

Wow, lowest shooting numbers of Jaylen's career.

Career low FG% at 44.5%. His rookie year was 45.4%. His next lowest was 46.5% in both 2nd and 3rd years. He was 49.9% last year and 49.1% the year before.

Career low 3PT% at 31.6%. Previous low was 33.5% two years ago. He has 4 more years hovering around 34-35%.

Career high in FTAs per game at 8.1 per game. Career high in assists at 4.7apg. Career best AST:TOV ratio. Shooting above career averages (72.2%) at FT line this year (74.3%).

His TS% is only 54.4%. Well below league average. He was a steady 58% TS% for the last 5 years.

Those BPM advanced stats are not kind to Jaylen. They have him at only a +0.6 offensively and a negative -0.9 defensively. They see him as a negative -0.3 BPM overall.

[tenn_smoothie]

From CLNS:

They?re 3.3 points per 100 possessions worse this year than last season?s legendary 122.2 offensive rating.

Compared to last season, the Celtics have attempted roughly four fewer shots per game in the restricted area and nearly three fewer mid-rangers each night in favor of an extra corner three and 6.9 more above the break threes. Their efficiency fell from 43% in the corner to 38.6% while they?re shooting only 35.8% above the break, down from 37.7%. It?s early and a few hot games could swing these numbers drastically, but they could represent a diminishing return on ramping up their already league-leading three-point attempts from 42.5 per game to 50.4.

So, way more threes has equated to an appreciably worse offense.  Do we need to make adjustments?

Uh, Yes.

[Goldstar88]

I would like the C?s to keep the 3pt shooting attempts to 40-45 per game. I don?t think they should change their strategy much, though. C?s won a championship by shooting a lot of 3?s, they just aren?t falling right now.

[Atzar]

I'm not as dogmatic about the three-point volume as many on this board.  My opinion is that shot quality matters more than anything.  If a defense has weak paint defense, go inside.  If a team can't guard the perimeter, bombs away.  I don't care if we launch 100 threes in a game if they're all open shots by good shooters.  I also don't care if we take 10 threes if we get good shots in the paint.  Do whatever works.   

I think the issue has more to do with individual performance than anything.  A lot of guys in a rut and missing shots they usually hit.  JB has been inefficient all year.  White has struggled for a month now, possibly related to that foot injury.  Jrue is slumping even harder for even longer, to the point that I'm becoming worried about genuine decline in his case.  Hauser and KP can't stay on the court.  Fix some or all of these problems, and that offensive rating will come with it.