Adam Silver looking into critiques of three point volume

[ozgod]

Looks like Adam has got the Celtics in his sights...or maybe teams that can't beat the Celtics so are now complaining to Adam about how we're burying them under an avalanche of threes 

Adam Silver looking into critiques of increased 3-point volume

LAS VEGAS -- With the Boston Celtics on pace to shatter the NBA's record for 3-pointers attempted by a team, and with 3s being up across the league this season, NBA commissioner Adam Silver said Tuesday night the league is studying the trend.

He also said criticisms of offenses becoming "cookie cutter" and that teams are copying each other is something he thinks the league should take seriously.

"The answer is yes, [we are having] many discussions about the style of basketball [being played]," Silver told a small group of reporters Tuesday night before the championship game of the league's second-annual NBA Cup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks. "I would not reduce it to a so-called 3-point shooting issue. I think we look more holistically at the skill level on the floor, the diversity of offense, the fan reception to the game, all of the above.

"I think the game is in a great place. I love watching the games, and I think we have some of the most skilled athletes in the world competing -- and it's unfair, I think, to the players to lump them into categories as 3-point shooters or a midrange shooter or big man playing under the basket. It's an amazing game."

"Having said that," he continued, "we're constantly having discussions about whether there are ways to improve stylistically the game on the floor."

The Celtics are averaging 51.1 attempted 3s per game, which easily would shatter the record for treys attempted in a season. Teams across the league are shooting more than ever due to the math of shooting more 3s, as opposed to midrange 2-point jumpers, bending the sport in that direction.

But Silver made it clear any attempt to change things on the fly, such as moving the 3-point line, is not likely to happen soon. He went through some of the complications with making that kind of decision as well as some of the things the league has done to try to address the notion of too many teams playing the same way.

"Historically, at times, we've moved the 3-point line," Silver said. "I don't think that's a solution here because then, I think when we look at both the game and the data, I think that may not necessarily do more midrange jumpers, if that's what people want, but more clogging under the basket.

"Whether there's some tweaks we should make, and my sense is I do think we should take seriously this notion of more diversity in offense. I watch as many games as all of you do, and to the extent that it's not so much a 3-point issue, but that some of the audience, some of the offenses start to look sort of cookie cutter and teams are copying each other. I think that's something we should pay attention to."

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/43032741/adam-silver-looking-critiques-increased-3-point-volume

That said, I'm sure some of our own fans won't be unhappy if they move the three point line, bring it back to the days of Kobe style midrange fadeaways and Shaq-style post ups...return to the 80s and 80s, minus hand checking 

[Donoghus]

I think its more related to sagging TV ratings and the concern that the modern game is affecting TV viewership.

[Silas]

Sour grapes from teams that don't have the capabilities to shoot 3s from their top 8 players.  As long as the Cs keep winning I'm fine with 45-50/game.

[Roy H.]

I wouldn't mind some adjustments.  Widening the court, moving the line back, etc. 

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Funny how this wasn't an issue worth "looking into" when it was Curry and Thompson bombing away. And of course most teams and players copy each other?that's a basic human tendency seen in sports but also in TV shows and movies, novels, the corporate world, societal trends, etc.

As for the current game, probably the only way to decrease the number of 3pt attempts is to add a 4pt line (I'm kinda joking, but kinda serious too).

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I wouldn't mind some adjustments.  Widening the court, moving the line back, etc.

I think they should widen the court and make the 3pt line the same distance all the way around the arc?no more of the short corner-threes.

[Celtics2021]

My favorite proposal was made several years ago by I think Kirk Goldsberry: let each home team decide the 3-point line for itself.  The team would need to keep the same line the entire season, and maybe the NBA would have a few configurations teams could choose from, as opposed to having 30 different set-ups.  It would theoretically create more of a home court advantage, because teams could choose a configuration that matched up best with their personnel and strategy, kind of like we have seen some baseball teams do with their outfield fences.

[Vermont Green]

I wouldn't mind some adjustments.  Widening the court, moving the line back, etc.

I think they should widen the court and make the 3pt line the same distance all the way around the arc?no more of the short corner-threes.

This is exactly what I would do.  Players are so big and so fast now, widening the court would not only allow you to extend the distance for the corner 3, but also give more court to work with in general.  This could lead to more ball and player movement.

Spreading the court right now only applies to one direction or dimension, out from the basket/end line.  If you spread the court in the other two directions, parallel to the end line, I think it would improve the game.  Right now, the corner is kind of no-mans land.  You can barely move with the ball or you step out of bounds.

You could simply make the whole rectangle wider or you could taper the court.  Keep it 50' wide at half court and then taper out to say 56 feet at the end line.  If it were me, I would just make the whole court wider but the tapered idea I think would achieve the goal and may be kind of cool.

Otherwise, I think the 3-point shot is here to stay and if they try to do anything silly, like make dunks worth 3 points or whatever, I think it will only make things worse.

[Roy H.]

I wouldn't mind some adjustments.  Widening the court, moving the line back, etc.

I think they should widen the court and make the 3pt line the same distance all the way around the arc?no more of the short corner-threes.

This is exactly what I would do.  Players are so big and so fast now, widening the court would not only allow you to extend the distance for the corner 3, but also give more court to work with in general.  This could lead to more ball and player movement.

Spreading the court right now only applies to one direction or dimension, out from the basket/end line.  If you spread the court in the other two directions, parallel to the end line, I think it would improve the game.  Right now, the corner is kind of no-mans land.  You can barely move with the ball or you step out of bounds.

You could simply make the whole rectangle wider or you could taper the court.  Keep it 50' wide at half court and then taper out to say 56 feet at the end line.  If it were me, I would just make the whole court wider but the tapered idea I think would achieve the goal and may be kind of cool.

Otherwise, I think the 3-point shot is here to stay and if they try to do anything silly, like make dunks worth 3 points or whatever, I think it will only make things worse.

The tapering idea is sort of interesting in response to the owner's concern about losing premium seats up front.  It would seem weird visually, but I'm sure in time it would be fine.

C21's advocacy for allowing home teams to pick the lines isn't something I'm in favor of, but I don't want to dismiss it out of hand.  The different dimensions in baseball are one of its most charming features.

[Vermont Green]

Funny how this wasn't an issue worth "looking into" when it was Curry and Thompson bombing away. And of course most teams and players copy each other?that's a basic human tendency seen in sports but also in TV shows and movies, novels, the corporate world, societal trends, etc.

As for the current game, probably the only way to decrease the number of 3pt attempts is to add a 4pt line (I'm kinda joking, but kinda serious too).

The GSW in the title years (say 2017-2019) were taking way fewer 3PA than the current Celttics:

2016/17   31 3PA
2017/18   29 3PA
2018/19   34 3PA

BOS is currently averaging about 51 3PA so far this season (GSW are at about 42).

By year, league average has been going up and up (listing every 5 years to show the trend):

2024/25   37.5 3PA
2019/20   34.1 3PA
2014/15   22.4 3PA
2009/10   18.1 3PA

I think the reason that no one was complaining in those GSW title years was that it was fairly new (to be taking so many) and it was not nearly as bad.  40 to 50 3PA per game seems like too many.  When it was more like 30 3PA, there was something more unique about it.  The uniqueness made it more exciting.  Even pick up basketball isn't as fun (in my opinion).  Of course in pick up, a regular basket is 1 and a "3" is 2 so the impact is even greater.

[keevsnick]

I think its more related to sagging TV ratings and the concern that the modern game is affecting TV viewership.

Ratings are down for pretty much every sport, except for the NFL. MLB ratings are down, NHL ratings are down, college basketball and college football both down.   

I just don't think three point volume is what's causing it. The percentage of jump shots hasn't even really changed, its just that long two's have become threes. The game is imo more fun than ever.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Funny how this wasn't an issue worth "looking into" when it was Curry and Thompson bombing away. And of course most teams and players copy each other?that's a basic human tendency seen in sports but also in TV shows and movies, novels, the corporate world, societal trends, etc.

As for the current game, probably the only way to decrease the number of 3pt attempts is to add a 4pt line (I'm kinda joking, but kinda serious too).

The GSW in the title years (say 2017-2019) were taking way fewer 3PA than the current Celttics:

2016/17   31 3PA
2017/18   29 3PA
2018/19   34 3PA

BOS is currently averaging about 51 3PA so far this season (GSW are at about 42).

By year, league average has been going up and up (listing every 5 years to show the trend):

2024/25   37.5 3PA
2019/20   34.1 3PA
2014/15   22.4 3PA
2009/10   18.1 3PA

I think the reason that no one was complaining in those GSW title years was that it was fairly new (to be taking so many) and it was not nearly as bad.  40 to 50 3PA per game seems like too many.  When it was more like 30 3PA, there was something more unique about it.  The uniqueness made it more exciting.  Even pick up basketball isn't as fun (in my opinion).  Of course in pick up, a regular basket is 1 and a "3" is 2 so the impact is even greater.

True, definitely more threes now, but the Dubs were taking a lot compared to everyone else, and the league didn't see it as a bad thing. (Not that the league sees the recent uptick as bad, either.)

Regardless, I don't think you can put the genie back in the bottle.

[bdm860]

By year, league average has been going up and up (listing every 5 years to show the trend):

2024/25   37.5 3PA
2019/20   34.1 3PA
2014/15   22.4 3PA
2009/10   18.1 3PA

Going a step further, I graphed out 3PA as a % of total FGA since the 3's inception in the NBA. (That brief spike in the 90's is when the NBA shortened the 3P line for 3 seasons).

The trend of taking more 3's has been gradually going up since the beginning (but starting growing a little more rapidly at the same time Steph started taking off). Will this keep growing? Eventually it has to plateau though, but what point is that? Every year for like the last 10 has felt like we're probably at the peak.




With this I think it's kind of interesting though to look at the change in shooting percentages (or in some cases lack thereof).


Despite the increase in attempts and more focus 3's, the overall league 3p% has largely stayed flat at ~35% for the last 30 years.

And 2p FG% has only started to climb over the last 10 years (it was right under 50% for 35 years, then has started to climb over the last 10).

But the balance of overall FG% has roughly stayed the same, in that 45-49% range throughout. If teams are making the same amount of shots as they always have, does it really matter where it's coming from (from a fan enjoyment perspective)?



Complaining about 3's is just the low hanging fruit though when trying to explain TV ratings, which I think would be down no matter what.

[Vermont Green]

By year, league average has been going up and up (listing every 5 years to show the trend):

2024/25   37.5 3PA
2019/20   34.1 3PA
2014/15   22.4 3PA
2009/10   18.1 3PA

Going a step further, I graphed out 3PA as a % of total FGA since the 3's inception in the NBA. (That brief spike in the 90's is when the NBA shortened the 3P line for 3 seasons).

The trend of taking more 3's has been gradually going up since the beginning (but starting growing a little more rapidly at the same time Steph started taking off). Will this keep growing? Eventually it has to plateau though, but what point is that? Every year for like the last 10 has felt like we're probably at the peak.




With this I think it's kind of interesting though to look at the change in shooting percentages (or in some cases lack thereof).


Despite the increase in attempts and more focus 3's, the overall league 3p% has largely stayed flat at ~35% for the last 30 years.

And 2p FG% has only started to climb over the last 10 years (it was right under 50% for 35 years, then has started to climb over the last 10).

But the balance of overall FG% has roughly stayed the same, in that 45-49% range throughout. If teams are making the same amount of shots as they always have, does it really matter where it's coming from (from a fan enjoyment perspective)?



Complaining about 3's is just the low hanging fruit though when trying to explain TV ratings, which I think would be down no matter what.

These are great!  Nice work!

As to overall FG%, it is expected that as the percentage of 3PA increases (with a 35% make percentage), that the overall FG% would go down.  If it is going to stay the same, which it apparently has, then the make percentage on 2PA would need to increase to offset the lower make percentage of the 3PA, which apparently it has.

But if you look at a 3P% of 35%, that is 1.05 pts/3PA (35% of 3).  If the make percentage on 2PA is about 55% as the graph shows, that is 1.10 pts/2PA (55% of 2).  It is already more productive for the average team to take a 2PA than a 3PA.  It seems to me that we are already at the tipping point.  And with a 2PA, I suspect that you are more likely to get fouled.

Now if you can get your 3PA make percentage up to more like 38% (about 1.14 pts/attempt) then you are better off with a 3PA over an average 2PA.  But I think the only way to keep such a high 3P% is to take a few less and be more selective.  Eliminate the worst or least likely to make attempts.

[Surferdad]

Silver has not defined the problem, so there is no need for a solution. Indeed it appears to be quite the opposite: Silver continues to be the biggest cheerleader for the NBA game, no surprise for an NBA commissioner.