How big of a threat is OKC, now and in the future?

[Atzar]

They need one more high level ball handler/scorer who doesn't compromise their defense, ideally a wing type guy. Their offense is too one dimensional, and grinds to a halt with Shai off the floor.

Now granted that kind of guy is an all-star type, and those are hard to find. Basically they need a Jaylen Brown type. But they have the resources to get it done.

Jalen Williams is that guy but they need more consistency out of him in big games. 

I think it's a matter of time for him though.  He can play. 

[keevsnick]

They need one more high level ball handler/scorer who doesn't compromise their defense, ideally a wing type guy. Their offense is too one dimensional, and grinds to a halt with Shai off the floor.

Now granted that kind of guy is an all-star type, and those are hard to find. Basically they need a Jaylen Brown type. But they have the resources to get it done.

Jalen Williams is that guy but they need more consistency out of him in big games. 

I think it's a matter of time for him though.  He can play.

I think he's more a a tertiary scorer than a primary on ball guy. He just doesn't have enough juice off the dribble. But maybe he gets there eventually. Even if he does I still think they could use one more guy who can dribble, becasue right now its Shai and sort of Williams and that's it.

[Vermont Green]

I think what OKC needs is some power forwards.  Julius Randle or Jerami Grant or some one like that.  Someone who can give them more size while still maintaining their defensive scheme.  John Collins would be a good target for them.  Siakam would be a good get for them.  Maybe even take a shot at Zion.  If they were able to get a veteran for now and then try to draft for the position, they could address this.

What is ironic of course is that they had a 6'-9" guy who would fit this pretty well but they decided they didn't even want him on the team and traded him away for peanuts (that would be Al Horford of course).  How much do you think Al Horford would have helped this team over the last few seasons?  Or how about just in the game vs MIL last night?

I don't think they need a $20 to $30 million PF.  I think that Holgrem and Hartenstein will be able to share the court together, and that will actually give them a size advantage. 

What they need is some depth upfront.  They have almost none, which is quite surprising to me.

It is all just spit-balling of course but think back on when the Celtics had Smart, White, Brogdon, and Pritchard.  They traded some of their excess guard depth for a quality, starting level big.  If it was me, I would target a starting level PF type and let Hartenstein come off the bench as the 3rd big, like Portis or even Horford comes off the bench.  I recognize that I tend to be a little more old school relative to most though.  I am not sold on small ball in general, and certainly not the ultra-small ball that OKC has to play right now.

The Celtics get away with only having 2 legit rotation level bigs (Porzingis and Horford) because Tatum is 6'-8" and can play the swing PF role.  OKC doesn't have that.  They have the 2 7-footers and then the next biggest guys are 6'-6" wings that are combo 2/3, not combo 3/4 (more Brown than Tatum).  OKC is doing just fine with their ultra-small ball I guess.  Even an MLE level PF would help them, but I think what puts them over the top is a starting level PF.

[Vermont Green]

I just found an interesting stat, opponent 2nd chance points.  OKC is worst in the league giving up 16.0 pts/game.  BOS for comparison is 3rd best giving up 12.3 pts/gm.  For contrast, on average, OKC forces 49.0 opponent misses per game, BOS forces 48.8 misses per game, about the same.  OKC allows fewer attempts (85.2) to BOS (90.6), but because OKC defense is better, their opponents miss a higher percentage.

All of this (if you can follow it) shows that their Achilles heal is opponent ORebs and 2nd chance points.  Not surprising for a team that generally plays with 4 or 5 guards.  They have the lowest DRating in the league even while giving up the most 2nd chance points.  Think how good they would be if they didn't give up as many 2nd chance points.  They gave up 19 2nd chance points last game to MIL and got only 6.  That 13 point net was pretty much the game.

The opponents points off turnovers (another stat I like to track) was about even, OKC gave up 12 and MIL gave up 14.  If you are going to lose the 2nd chance points battle, you better win the points off turnovers battle.  On the season, OKC is best (lowest) for opponents points off turnovers with 12.6 pts/gm (tied with CHI).  BOS is second at 14.0 opponents points off turnovers.  OKC takes care of the ball.  OKC also leads the league in their own points off turnovers (most) 22.7 pts/gm.

[Goldstar88]

OKC gets spanked by the Bucks in the NBA cup championship game.. Not a threat.

Losing the cup means absolutely nothing. We haven?t even made the nba cup championship game yet, does that mean we aren?t a threat?
They?re also missing one of there best players. If that was us that?s all we would hear about. Also the bucks are rounding into form and will be a serious threat.

You?re missing the point. That was a high pressure game. Both teams were giving 100% and the Bucks beat the Thunder handily. If OKC can?t go toe to toe with Milwaukee, they don?t have a chance against Boston.

Thunder were missing Holmgren, but the Bucks were missing Middleton as well.

[Phantom255x]

I'm still picking OKC to come out of the West

I will admit though, MIL has looked a bit scary lately. I'd still definitely pick BOS in a series over them, but maybe MIL could actually be the 3rd/4th best in the East if Giannis-Lillard can keep it up and coexist (and stay healthy). Middleton also, they are deeper/better with him of course

[Roy H.]

OKC gets spanked by the Bucks in the NBA cup championship game.. Not a threat.

Losing the cup means absolutely nothing. We haven?t even made the nba cup championship game yet, does that mean we aren?t a threat?
They?re also missing one of there best players. If that was us that?s all we would hear about. Also the bucks are rounding into form and will be a serious threat.

You?re missing the point. That was a high pressure game. Both teams were giving 100% and the Bucks beat the Thunder handily. If OKC can?t go toe to toe with Milwaukee, they don?t have a chance against Boston.

Thunder were missing Holmgren, but the Bucks were missing Middleton as well.

We lost to Indiana in the Cup playoffs last year, and couldn't get past Atlanta in a tight game this season.  Do you think those games said anything about the strength of Boston as a contender?

Teams lose.  Teams get blown out.  Ultimately, one game sample sizes are pretty meaningless.

[Goldstar88]

OKC gets spanked by the Bucks in the NBA cup championship game.. Not a threat.

Losing the cup means absolutely nothing. We haven?t even made the nba cup championship game yet, does that mean we aren?t a threat?
They?re also missing one of there best players. If that was us that?s all we would hear about. Also the bucks are rounding into form and will be a serious threat.

You?re missing the point. That was a high pressure game. Both teams were giving 100% and the Bucks beat the Thunder handily. If OKC can?t go toe to toe with Milwaukee, they don?t have a chance against Boston.

Thunder were missing Holmgren, but the Bucks were missing Middleton as well.

We lost to Indiana in the Cup playoffs last year, and couldn't get past Atlanta in a tight game this season.  Do you think those games said anything about the strength of Boston as a contender?

Teams lose.  Teams get blown out.  Ultimately, one game sample sizes are pretty meaningless.

It was the championship game, though. I think this one game meant a lot to both of these teams.

[Phantom255x]

SGA had a poor shooting night but the biggest thing is that Chet wasn't playing. That team is gonna have to rely a ton of Hartenstein and Chet BOTH being healthy and playing these games, because their frontcourt depth is bad. They didn't have Hartenstein last year and it felt like the teams with elite big men (or young, athletic ones) gave them trouble especially on the boards like Anthony Davis, Jokic, etc. Even Dallas with Lively and Gafford gave them trouble because Chet can't do it all alone, and their backup options aren't great.

[JBcat]

SGA had a poor shooting night but the biggest thing is that Chet wasn't playing. That team is gonna have to rely a ton of Hartenstein and Chet BOTH being healthy and playing these games, because their frontcourt depth is bad. They didn't have Hartenstein last year and it felt like the teams with elite big men (or young, athletic ones) gave them trouble especially on the boards like Anthony Davis, Jokic, etc. Even Dallas with Lively and Gafford gave them trouble because Chet can't do it all alone, and their backup options aren't great.

I think Jaylin Williams who has been hurt all season and due to come back soon is a quality backup big. He may not be a terrific rebounder but is a unique good defender leading the league pretty easily last season in charges taken per minute, can help space the floor, and is a savvy passer where he can run the offense a bit from the high post. I like him, and think he will be helpful.

[Neurotic Guy]

OKC gets spanked by the Bucks in the NBA cup championship game.. Not a threat.

Losing the cup means absolutely nothing. We haven?t even made the nba cup championship game yet, does that mean we aren?t a threat?
They?re also missing one of there best players. If that was us that?s all we would hear about. Also the bucks are rounding into form and will be a serious threat.

You?re missing the point. That was a high pressure game. Both teams were giving 100% and the Bucks beat the Thunder handily. If OKC can?t go toe to toe with Milwaukee, they don?t have a chance against Boston.

Thunder were missing Holmgren, but the Bucks were missing Middleton as well.

We lost to Indiana in the Cup playoffs last year, and couldn't get past Atlanta in a tight game this season.  Do you think those games said anything about the strength of Boston as a contender?

Teams lose.  Teams get blown out.  Ultimately, one game sample sizes are pretty meaningless.

Yes.

[jpotter33]

OKC gets spanked by the Bucks in the NBA cup championship game.. Not a threat.

Losing the cup means absolutely nothing. We haven?t even made the nba cup championship game yet, does that mean we aren?t a threat?
They?re also missing one of there best players. If that was us that?s all we would hear about. Also the bucks are rounding into form and will be a serious threat.

You?re missing the point. That was a high pressure game. Both teams were giving 100% and the Bucks beat the Thunder handily. If OKC can?t go toe to toe with Milwaukee, they don?t have a chance against Boston.

Thunder were missing Holmgren, but the Bucks were missing Middleton as well.

Agreed. It obviously doesn't mean their season is over or anything like that, but for a team that is historically young with major critiques regarding the reliability of their offense, lack of experience, and presence in big games, struggling in a big game like this doesn't exactly promote confidence that they can overcome these weaknesses deep in the playoffs.

[Goldstar88]

SGA had a poor shooting night but the biggest thing is that Chet wasn't playing. That team is gonna have to rely a ton of Hartenstein and Chet BOTH being healthy and playing these games, because their frontcourt depth is bad. They didn't have Hartenstein last year and it felt like the teams with elite big men (or young, athletic ones) gave them trouble especially on the boards like Anthony Davis, Jokic, etc. Even Dallas with Lively and Gafford gave them trouble because Chet can't do it all alone, and their backup options aren't great.

Holmgren didn?t play, but neither did Middleton. Both teams were missing their 3rd option.

[Neurotic Guy]

OKC gets spanked by the Bucks in the NBA cup championship game.. Not a threat.

Losing the cup means absolutely nothing. We haven?t even made the nba cup championship game yet, does that mean we aren?t a threat?
They?re also missing one of there best players. If that was us that?s all we would hear about. Also the bucks are rounding into form and will be a serious threat.

You?re missing the point. That was a high pressure game. Both teams were giving 100% and the Bucks beat the Thunder handily. If OKC can?t go toe to toe with Milwaukee, they don?t have a chance against Boston.

Thunder were missing Holmgren, but the Bucks were missing Middleton as well.

Agreed. It obviously doesn't mean their season is over or anything like that, but for a team that is historically young with major critiques regarding the reliability of their offense, lack of experience, and presence in big games, struggling in a big game like this doesn't exactly promote confidence that they can overcome these weaknesses deep in the playoffs.

In some respects that sounds like the Celtics in ?22 or ?23.  Before they won. Even last year there was doubt about their ability to finish, until they actually won. The question of talent I think is answered. OKC is talented enough to win a championship.  Full strength Milwaukee is too. OKCs lack of experience may keep them from winning this year, but just as it wouldn?t have shocked me for the Cs to beat GSW in ?22, it wouldn?t shock me if they?re able to put it together. 

[Vermont Green]

SGA had a poor shooting night but the biggest thing is that Chet wasn't playing. That team is gonna have to rely a ton of Hartenstein and Chet BOTH being healthy and playing these games, because their frontcourt depth is bad. They didn't have Hartenstein last year and it felt like the teams with elite big men (or young, athletic ones) gave them trouble especially on the boards like Anthony Davis, Jokic, etc. Even Dallas with Lively and Gafford gave them trouble because Chet can't do it all alone, and their backup options aren't great.

I think Jaylin Williams who has been hurt all season and due to come back soon is a quality backup big. He may not be a terrific rebounder but is a unique good defender leading the league pretty easily last season in charges taken per minute, can help space the floor, and is a savvy passer where he can run the offense a bit from the high post. I like him, and think he will be helpful.

I had forgotten about Jaylin Williams.  He definitely satisfies the big forward, power forward, whatever, criteria that I see as the need.  I am not sure he is starter level but he is only 22.  Last season he had 4 pts/3 rebs in 13 min off the bench.  Not a big impact but I am sure OKC will be happy to have that.  It will help some, I would think.