Coaching decisions: the good, bad and unusual

[Vermont Green]

The weirdest thing for me is how ineffective the starters have been as a unit.  I don't think it's a physical / talent issue; those five still seem to fit together perfectly.  Is it motivation?  Focus? Fatigue?

The starters have played in 4 of the last 5 games for a total of 62 minutes (15.5 min/gm).  In that time, the starters are -28.  The starters are -20 in the first quarter alone in these games.  That is a pretty big hole to dig out of.

If the starters had not had a whole season together last season, it might make more sense that bringing back Porzingis is somehow changing things or requiring a period of adjustment.  Porzingis has been back for 17 games now.  Yes, he was back, then out, then back, but this should not be causing this much of a problem.

An option is to bring Porzingis off the bench, start Horford again.  Or I guess you could go big and have White or Holiday come off the bench.  Or just continue to slog through this.  Porzingis does change the rhythm some but should this cause White (for example) to go from 40% from 3 to about 15% from 3?

[Vermont Green]

For the season now:

Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Horford          +87 / 209 Minutes
Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis        -40 / 147 Minutes
Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Kornet           +14 /  43 Minutes

The Horford + starters line up is the second best of all starting units by total plus/minus.  IND is at +125 with their starters (324 minutes).  OKC is +86 / 250 minutes with Hartenstein + starters (Holmgren is +11 in only 64 minutes).  CLE starters are +26 in 197 minutes.

Integrating Porzingis back into the line up is a big problem.  Not sure what the issue is.

[jpotter33]

For the season now:

Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Horford          +87 / 209 Minutes
Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Porzingis        -40 / 147 Minutes
Holiday, White, Brown, Tatum, Kornet           +14 /  43 Minutes

The Horford + starters line up is the second best of all starting units by total plus/minus.  IND is at +125 with their starters (324 minutes).  OKC is +86 / 250 minutes with Hartenstein + starters (Holmgren is +11 in only 64 minutes).  CLE starters are +26 in 197 minutes.

Integrating Porzingis back into the line up is a big problem.  Not sure what the issue is.

Nice info. I think two things are at play here:

1) We played quite a bit different to start the year with a much higher focus on three point volume (to the tune of shooting approximately 20% more threes than last year), but when KP came back we started integrating him more in the high post against mismatches, which has not been as effective as last year and threw us off our game a bit. And even with KP as a floor spacer, pushing these high post possessions has clogged up the lane a bit and taken away some of the drive and kick offense that we excel at. So between this and some alterations to opponent defensive schemes (i.e. much more pressure on the perimeter shooters and giving up more lanes), I think we?re struggling to adjust to reintegrating KP.

2) I also think the major change in physicality and officiating ever since last year?s ASB has really affected the KP high post plays making them less effective. KP used to draw a ton of fouls and free throws on those plays against mismatches, but with defenders now able to be more physical with him - which his slender frame struggles with - this set is much less deadly than it was last year.

Really not sure what the answer is other than I think we need to find different ways to utilize KP offensively if the high post set continues to not work well for him.

[bdm860]

The eternal optimist in me hopes it's all flu related.

Since 12/1: Brown, Tatum, White, Tillman, Walsh, Springer have all been listed on the injury report with non-Covid illnesses. (Is that a lot? normal? never really analyzed the injury report for that before).

Then we have this tweet from Keith Smith:

This flu running through the NBA is no joke. I was talking to a few teams that are asking players to stay away if they are feeling even the slightest bit sick. Almost every team has been hit by it at this point.

So maybe just a bad flu, where players are "heatlhy" but some of the adverse symptoms still last for weeks (like fatigue).

Best spin I can hope for when seeing some of the performances out there lately.

[keevsnick]

The weirdest thing for me is how ineffective the starters have been as a unit.  I don't think it's a physical / talent issue; those five still seem to fit together perfectly.  Is it motivation?  Focus? Fatigue?

The starters have played in 4 of the last 5 games for a total of 62 minutes (15.5 min/gm).  In that time, the starters are -28.  The starters are -20 in the first quarter alone in these games.  That is a pretty big hole to dig out of.

If the starters had not had a whole season together last season, it might make more sense that bringing back Porzingis is somehow changing things or requiring a period of adjustment.  Porzingis has been back for 17 games now.  Yes, he was back, then out, then back, but this should not be causing this much of a problem.

An option is to bring Porzingis off the bench, start Horford again.  Or I guess you could go big and have White or Holiday come off the bench.  Or just continue to slog through this.  Porzingis does change the rhythm some but should this cause White (for example) to go from 40% from 3 to about 15% from 3?

I'm not really worried about the starting group. Its been a small sample size, and they three point shooting splits are insane. The Celtics starting group is shooting like 28% from three on the floor together and opponents are shooting something like 48% against them. That's simply not something that will continue. But more than that we KNOW this group can be very good together, and I'm pretty confident they'll get back to that.

[Vermont Green]

The eternal optimist in me hopes it's all flu related.

Since 12/1: Brown, Tatum, White, Tillman, Walsh, Springer have all been listed on the injury report with non-Covid illnesses. (Is that a lot? normal? never really analyzed the injury report for that before).

Then we have this tweet from Keith Smith:

This flu running through the NBA is no joke. I was talking to a few teams that are asking players to stay away if they are feeling even the slightest bit sick. Almost every team has been hit by it at this point.

So maybe just a bad flu, where players are "healthy" but some of the adverse symptoms still last for weeks (like fatigue).

Best spin I can hope for when seeing some of the performances out there lately.

Hmmm.  Brown missed a game on Dec 1 with and illness.  White missed a game on Jan 7.  Both have played pretty bad in January, along with Holiday.  Stats for January:

Brown       20% from 3 / -34 / 5 games
White       27% from 3 / -17 / 6 games
Holiday     31% from 3 / -16 / 7 games

Kornet (+42) and Pritchard (+29) are the only ones with good +/- numbers in January.  Tatum is +4, at least positive.  Jaylen also missed a game on Jan 1 due to "shoulder".

[jpotter33]

Have to give Joe the props tonight - the rotations and gameplan were on point. Switching up the Jays' rotation back to what it was last year (JT out first to let JB cook early and keep our best player in for the late stages of the game) was long overdue if we're being honest, but it's a good change nonetheless.

Regarding the gameplan, we clearly were looking to dominate the paint early and are still likely to put up close to 40 threes. Much, much better variety and dynamism in our gameplan tonight.

[Phantom255x]

Have to give Joe the props tonight - the rotations and gameplan were on point. Switching up the Jays' rotation back to what it was last year (JT out first to let JB cook early and keep our best player in for the late stages of the game) was long overdue if we're being honest, but it's a good change nonetheless.

Regarding the gameplan, we clearly were looking to dominate the paint early and are still likely to put up close to 40 threes. Much, much better variety and dynamism in our gameplan tonight.

Yeah during the game, there were so many times where it felt like Pritchard, Jaylen or someone had a look and would normally shoot a 3, but instead they either drove or made the extra pass. Almost like it was by design, or said before the game as part of the plan to attack the paint. Good stuff.

There aren't many guys in the league who can stop the Jays when they are attacking the rim. And if KP can keep it up shooting-wise, look out.

[SCeltic34]

The decision to rush a 2 for 1 in OT and letting a struggling JB carry it out is one of the most inexplicably stupid coaching decisions I've ever seen.

Joe is not getting the most out of this roster this season.  Go ahead and prove me wrong.  (You can't.  Just look at our offensive numbers in January.)

[jpotter33]

Well, the good vibes with Joe lasted one game at least.

He wasn't alone in the awful decision-making tonight with the core four of JT, JB, White, and Jrue all playing horribly and making awful decisions down the stretch, but Joe simply is not demonstrating leadership and just kowtowing to the Jays in moments when he needs to be more strategic to put our team in positions to succeed. So frustrating.

[Phantom255x]

Coaching is an issue. I agree with that.

But at the same time, is coaching the reason we have so many of these games where 3-4 of our starters are shooting like blind people, and/or just making braindead mistakes on the court. Like Jrue had the ball and could have had an easy layup but he dribbled it out then Jaylen turned it over. To me that's almost all on the player. Then you have Tatum, White and others just jacking up 3s and bricking even the wide open ones.

I do fully agree on the whole 2-for-1 concept and don't like Mazzulla using that when the team is trailing. On that possession though, Jaylen made it a lot worse by hesitating then turning it over instead of maybe resetting. Jaylen has looked terrible for a while now too, last night was an outlier.

[Roy H.]

The decision to rush a 2 for 1 in OT and letting a struggling JB carry it out is one of the most inexplicably stupid coaching decisions I've ever seen.

Joe is not getting the most out of this roster this season.  Go ahead and prove me wrong.  (You can't.  Just look at our offensive numbers in January.)

I was at the game.  I predicted it, and of course it happened.

Such bad fundamentals down the stretch.  Turnovers, missed FTs, couldn't rebound, leaving shooters wide open.

[jpotter33]

Coaching is an issue. I agree with that.

But at the same time, is coaching the reason we have so many of these games where 3-4 of our starters are shooting like blind people, and/or just making braindead mistakes on the court. Like Jrue had the ball and could have had an easy layup but he dribbled it out then Jaylen turned it over. To me that's almost all on the player. Then you have Tatum, White and others just jacking up 3s and bricking even the wide open ones.

I do fully agree on the whole 2-for-1 concept and don't like Mazzulla using that when the team is trailing. On that possession though, Jaylen made it a lot worse by hesitating then turning it over instead of maybe resetting. Jaylen has looked terrible for a while now too, last night was an outlier.

On the first part, a good portion of the issue is on the coach because he's the one that has implemented the bunk philosophy that overly relies on taking and making a high volume of three point shots. While this has somewhat started to decrease some, we still shoot 6 more threes than any other team on a nightly basis, even though we're currently ranked at #15 in the league in accuracy. And a big part of that is this philosophy requires an increased number of poor quality threes in order to get up the volume that Joe wants, as well as a complete lack of accountability and discipline instilled by Joe regarding our players' shot selection (e.g., White's atrocious three point volume and shot selection tonight).

As for the second part, why is Joe putting the ball into the hands of our most questionable decision-maker in a 2 for 1 opportunity when down 1? That's on Joe. He seems incapable of telling the Jays "no" and doing what's best for the team, like utilizing our super sub PP who would've had a friendly defensive assignment and was hot tonight.

[Phantom255x]

Coaching is an issue. I agree with that.

But at the same time, is coaching the reason we have so many of these games where 3-4 of our starters are shooting like blind people, and/or just making braindead mistakes on the court. Like Jrue had the ball and could have had an easy layup but he dribbled it out then Jaylen turned it over. To me that's almost all on the player. Then you have Tatum, White and others just jacking up 3s and bricking even the wide open ones.

I do fully agree on the whole 2-for-1 concept and don't like Mazzulla using that when the team is trailing. On that possession though, Jaylen made it a lot worse by hesitating then turning it over instead of maybe resetting. Jaylen has looked terrible for a while now too, last night was an outlier.

On the first part, a good portion of the issue is on the coach because he's the one that has implemented the bunk philosophy that overly relies on taking and making a high volume of three point shots. While this has somewhat started to decrease some, we still shoot 6 more threes than any other team on a nightly basis, even though we're currently ranked at #15 in the league in accuracy. And a big part of that is this philosophy requires an increased number of poor quality threes in order to get up the volume that Joe wants, as well as a complete lack of accountability and discipline instilled by Joe regarding our players' shot selection (e.g., White's atrocious three point volume and shot selection tonight).

As for the second part, why is Joe putting the ball into the hands of our most questionable decision-maker in a 2 for 1 opportunity when down 1? That's on Joe. He seems incapable of telling the Jays "no" and doing what's best for the team, like utilizing our super sub PP who would've had a friendly defensive assignment and was hot tonight.

TP. That's all a fair assessment.

My other issue is sort of what you mentioned too, which is sometimes this team also becomes way too predictable in these moments where even the opponent is like "yeah, of course they are drawing it up for a Tatum last-second shot", or even if the ball gets inbounded to Jaylen there is an emphasis on sending a second defender at him to try and make him rattled, which usually works because he's not as good a ball-handler and playmaker as Tatum.

They can definitely scheme up plays where any of Pritchard, Holiday, White, etc. could be wide open for a shot. Yes, I know White has been awful shooting but my point stands. Look at Atlanta tonight, Trae Young wasn't the only one jacking up shots in the final seconds. I forgot who it was (maybe Hunter?) but very late in the 4th while tied, Young actually passed the ball and Brown overhelped which led to Hunter being WIDE OPEN. He missed the shot but usually that's probably going down.

[SparzWizard]

Another L piling up, another digit closer to the 20-loss of that 40-20 rule.

We're at 13-losses.

Doesn't help that we now begin our West Coast trip...think we might go 0-4, esp brutal losses coming from both LA teams

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