Purging draft thoughts

[CFAN38]

I have debated writing and posting a few things to Celticsblog concerning the draft but just never got around to it. So I am purging some of my draft notes/thoughts here

First off my tiers

My tiers is a rules-based way to draft. IE never draft for fit if a higher tiered player in on the board but pick need based out of the tier.

Tier   Player
1   Alex Sarr
1   Donovan Clingan
   
2   Ron Holland
2   Stephon Castle
2   Matas Buzelis
2   Zaccharie Risacher
2   Nikola Topic
   
3   Devin Carter
3   Kel'el Ware
3   Reed Sheppard
3   Bub Carrington
3   Rob Dillingham
3   Isaiah Collier
3   Jaylon Tyson
3   Cody Williams
3      Dalton Knetch
3   Tidjane Salaun
3   Tristan da Silva
   
   
4   Ja'Kobe Walter
4   Zach Edey
4   Kyle Filipowski
4   Jared McCain
4   Tyler Smith
4   John Furphy
   
   
5   Yves Missi
5   Harrison Ingram
5   Justin Edwards
5   Adem Bona
5   Baylor Scheierman
5   Cam Christie
5   Terrance Shannon
5   Tyler Kolek
5   Nikola Djurisic
5   Pacome Dadiet
5   Melvin Ajinca
   
6   Kyshawn George
6   Daron Holmes
6   Bobi Klintman
6   Ryan Dunn
6   Trey Alexander
6   Kevin McCullar
6   Trentyn Flowers
6   Dillon Jones
6   Pelle Larsson
6      Antonio Reeves

At the top of the draft I think we are in for a few surprises. I suspect the Spurs have a favorite frenchman to pair with Wemby but I am not sure anyone really know if its Risache, Saluan, or my dark horse pick Sarr. I could see a scenario where the Spurs move #4, #35 and an additional asset for #1 or #2 to draft Sarr. This creates a scary defensive 4/5 combo for the future. The Spurs did play Wemby with Collins a lot last season so I don't think this is outside the realm of possibilities.

We are also going to see a rift in this lottery between the analytics crowd and the traditionalists. Reed Sheppard is a physically underwhelming lower usage guard coming into the league the year after only 2 sub 6'3 guards where even drafted but his out of this world stats will cement him at the top of every analytics driven board. On the flip side Ron Holland is a analytics nightmare but is a 6'7 +3 wingspan elite athlete who just looks the part of a top 5 pick but the stats are not in his favor.

Notes:

Rob Dillingham is Lou Williams but will be drafted by a team whose fans want him to be Trae Young. This could be a mess but he will ultimately down the road settle into an elite 6th man role.

Justin Edwards will be a steal and Danny Ainge will probably draft him. DA always liked blue chip wings and Edwards is just that. He suffered from the UK effect this season and just never got the usage to thrive. Has he returned to college he would have worked himself up to the first half of the next draft.

Missi isn't THAT much better than Bona. Missi tows a fine line between being a skilled 4/5 and just a rim runner but as a rim runner his 7'2 wingspan isnt great and could cause him to underwhelm.

Scheieman is a Hauser level NBA role player. If he ends up on the right team he contributes to winning right away.

Isaiah Collier is under valued and will go higher then projected to a team that needs a yougn PG.

Toppic is a great trade back into the Lottery and have him sit out the season option for the Wizards. They should just embrace the tank. Kuzma + 26 for 13?

Jaylon Tyson could be a steal if he is allowed to be a secondary creator

Cam Christie like Justin Edwards is a smart "pre-draft" pick for a team willing to use a pick in the 30s on a kid who is likely a top 20 guy had he stayed in college one more season.

Harrison Ingram is just an easy to fit player GMs are looking for 6'5+, strong framed, + wingspan wings who can dribble pass and shoot and he is that. Hope the Cs get him.

Antonio Reeves shoots to well not to be on an NBA roster.


Those are my random draft thoughts and I only share them here because I look forward to looking back on these takes in the future.







 

[Who]

Why is Ron Holland an analytics nightmare?

[Neurotic Guy]

You all and those on the other draft threads are great. I appreciate the info as someone who pays almost no attention to college or international basketball. 

[CFAN38]

Purging into day 2,

Baylor Scheierman was a great pick. As much as he is " Hauser insurance" I view him as more of a bigger strong Svi. He is more of a traditional 3/2 wing while Hauser is a 3/4. I didn't watch a lot of the combine scrimmage but it just so happens when I was watching Scheierman was treating the scrimmage like a finals game. He just seemed so much more intense than the other players on the court. That combined with his skill set and system fit makes for a bright future for him in green!

The ESPN broadcast is just terrible...... I switched over to watching Stadium on X and it was light years better.

The second round is going to be interesting. My not so conspiracy theory is that this round will be a bit of a sham. What I mean by this is the picks are not really picks but pre negotiated deals between teams and agents. Last year TJD and Livingston went at the very end of the 2nd but received 4 year deals and this was because their agents told teams to pass them over so they could land to predetermined teams. The loose rule that BS backed up in a recent interview is that picks 31-45 expect 4 year deals in the same structure that the Celtics gave to Walsh. After pick 45 those players should expect 2 ways. It will not shock me if for example Filipowski falls to the 50s and instantly signs a 4 year deal.   

Assuming the Cs do not get involved in these back door deals I expect we see a bigger player from the workout list drafted at #54 Freeman or Mogbo. 

[boscel33]

For the 54 pick, I'm hoping the Johnson kid from AZ is still there.

[jay]

I think the team was looking for something last season when they picked up Oshae Brissett and Lamar Stevens.  That 6-6 or 6-7 wing defender that can play the 4. Needs to be adequate from corner 3 on offense.  Energy guy, hustle guy. Switchable on defense.  I'm looking at:


Harrison Ingram 6-5 234
Keshad Johnson 6-6 224
Melvin Ajinca 6-6 214
Isaiah Crawford 6-6 220