Celtics (15-4) at Pacers (10-8) Game #20 12/4/23

[Vermont Green]

There are a few issues with this team:

1.  Inconsistent 3PT shooting (40.6% Home, 32.6% Road)
2.  Turnovers, taking care of the ball (17th in the league)
3.  Offensive Rebounding

The first two of these were issues in this game, the third one not, as IND is even a worse rebounding team than us.

We are not a good 3PT shooting team on the road and we have been poor on the road overall.  We are 6-5 on the road, 10th best in the league.  9-0 at home, best in the league.  I think the reliance on the 3 is a big part of this.  3-pt shots are highly variable game to game in any case but even more so on the road.

Turnovers are a tough one.  I was expecting Holiday to help stabilize this.  We are a team that takes a lot of 3s.  You would think that would lead to less turnovers.  You would expect more turnovers and offensive fouls taking it to the hoop.  Not sure what is going on here.  TOVs are high both home and away.

ORebs also correlate to home/road.  We average 11.1 home and 9.9 road and we miss more shots on the road so there are more OReb opportunities that we aren't getting.   Our opponents get more ORebs in road games also.  We play an extra guard so this is not surprising but the extra guards should mean fewer turnovers.  So playing small is hurting rebounding (not surprising), but not helping turnovers, and fueling inconsistency by leading to more 3s.

[Redz]

That is was a very well contested game.  Just about every possession was well defended by both teams.  They made some crazy tough shots in the clutch and we did not.  Great environment.  Probably D White’s worst game of the year - some very atypical lapses of judgement.

I do think we missed Porzingis more than usual last nights. We would have loosened up that offense quite a bit.  No excuses, just an observation. 

I would have liked to have seen them advance but so be it.  Go Pacers!  (I suspect they’ll play the Knicks).

[Phantom255x]

I know we talk a lot about MIA/MIL/PHI, but we better hope to not draw someone like Indiana or Orlando either. They would give this team hell in a playoff series early on (1st and/or 2nd round)

[Who]

There are a few issues with this team:

1.  Inconsistent 3PT shooting (40.6% Home, 32.6% Road)
2.  Turnovers, taking care of the ball (17th in the league)
3.  Offensive Rebounding

Turnovers are a tough one.  I was expecting Holiday to help stabilize this.  We are a team that takes a lot of 3s.  You would think that would lead to less turnovers.  You would expect more turnovers and offensive fouls taking it to the hoop.  Not sure what is going on here.  TOVs are high both home and away.

Man, those turnover numbers are surprising. Two PGs. Two SFs. We have two skilled bigs in Porzingis and Horford.

Why the heck is the team average in turnovers?

I saw 19th in TOV% on B-Ref.com but basically league average percentage wise (12.6% BOS vs 12.5% league average).

[Who]

Turnovers & Assists per game

Tatum = 4.2 assists 3.4 turnovers
Jaylen = 3.2 assists 2.5 turnovers

These two are the main culprits.

Jrue = 5.1 assists 2.2 turnovers
D White = 5.3 assists 1.9 turnovers

Porzingis = 1.9 assists 1.3 turnovers
Horford = 2.8 assists 1.0 turnovers

Way to go Horford. That is probably the best AST:TOV ratio on the team. Unless Prichard has got him beat. Oh he does.

Pritchard = 2.9 assists 0.6 turnovers
Hauser = 0.9 assists 0.6 turnovers

So it is not the role players. They are not turning the ball over. It is the two Jays.

[Who]

The Celtics team assist percentage is not good either. I saw they were below average a couple of weeks ago but I was waiting to see how it changed. It has gone down since.

The team ranks 24th in the league in AST%.

https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced?dir=-1&sort=AST_PCT

Team AST:TOV ranks 21st.

[scaryjerry]

I see nobody one team in the East good enough to beat Boston in a 7 game series assuming Boston is healthy that is. Orlando too young and weak offensively. Milwaukee no depth, bad defensively and matchup badly with Boston. Maybe Philly. I see Philly as the only semi-threatening team but I don't believe they have enough for to outlast Boston in 7. Still, they have a small chance. So 1 team in the East.

In the West, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans are possibilities. Phoenix is another wild card as we haven't seen them healthy yet. Clippers are a long shot but reluctant to write them off just yet. So up to 5 teams in the West. I'd favour Boston over all 5 of them in a series but they are good enough to have a real shot at knocking Boston off.

stating there are 10 teams (a third of the League) better than us is crazy.

Is that what I said though? On paper there shouldn’t be any team better than us but I believe the way this team plays in the playoffs under pressure I’m being generous in saying I only see 10 teams that could beat them.
This team let the Atlanta hawks take them to 6 in the first round last year.

[scaryjerry]

I see nobody one team in the East good enough to beat Boston in a 7 game series assuming Boston is healthy that is. Orlando too young and weak offensively. Milwaukee no depth, bad defensively and matchup badly with Boston. Maybe Philly. I see Philly as the only semi-threatening team but I don't believe they have enough for to outlast Boston in 7. Still, they have a small chance. So 1 team in the East.

In the West, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans are possibilities. Phoenix is another wild card as we haven't seen them healthy yet. Clippers are a long shot but reluctant to write them off just yet. So up to 5 teams in the West. I'd favour Boston over all 5 of them in a series but they are good enough to have a real shot at knocking Boston off.

Really? So the heat who have beaten this core 2 times in 3 years in the eastern finals and took them to 7 in the other one has no chance at beating them in the playoffs? Lol ok.
And yeah the bucks with 2 top 75 players of all time have absolutely no shot.

Give me a break

[Vermont Green]

Turnovers & Assists per game

Tatum = 4.2 assists 3.4 turnovers
Jaylen = 3.2 assists 2.5 turnovers

These two are the main culprits.

Jrue = 5.1 assists 2.2 turnovers
D White = 5.3 assists 1.9 turnovers

Porzingis = 1.9 assists 1.3 turnovers
Horford = 2.8 assists 1.0 turnovers

Way to go Horford. That is probably the best AST:TOV ratio on the team. Unless Prichard has got him beat. Oh he does.

Pritchard = 2.9 assists 0.6 turnovers
Hauser = 0.9 assists 0.6 turnovers

So it is not the role players. They are not turning the ball over. It is the two Jays.

I am not sure how important the assist/turnover ratio is.  Maybe for PGs back when there were more of the traditional PGs, but I don't think it is as relevant for wings and bigs.  I look at turnovers as more of an absolute value.  If as a team, you have more TOVs than the other team, that is more possessions for the other team.  I don't see a straight correlation for how many assists a team gets.  Or just because you get more assists, does that mean that the turnovers are not as impactful?

Assists are a quirky stat.  In general, if team assists are high, it is an indication of good ball movement.  But not necessarily.  It could be an indication that a player like Harden or Rondo is just pounding the ball and hunting for assists.  Team assists are more telling than individual assists (at least to me) but even team assists can be a distorted indicator.

We are saying the same thing though; that there is no reason that this team should be committing the level of turnover that they are.  It is hurting the team, especially on the road.  Maybe they should be getting more assists too, I don't know, but if I was the coach, I would be focused primarily on taking care of the ball, reducing turnovers, not trying to increase assists.  Reduce the turnovers and I think the assists will come and the asst/TOV ratio will improve.

[SparzWizard]

I see nobody one team in the East good enough to beat Boston in a 7 game series assuming Boston is healthy that is. Orlando too young and weak offensively. Milwaukee no depth, bad defensively and matchup badly with Boston. Maybe Philly. I see Philly as the only semi-threatening team but I don't believe they have enough for to outlast Boston in 7. Still, they have a small chance. So 1 team in the East.

In the West, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans are possibilities. Phoenix is another wild card as we haven't seen them healthy yet. Clippers are a long shot but reluctant to write them off just yet. So up to 5 teams in the West. I'd favour Boston over all 5 of them in a series but they are good enough to have a real shot at knocking Boston off.

Really? So the heat who have beaten this core 2 times in 3 years in the eastern finals and took them to 7 in the other one has no chance at beating them in the playoffs? Lol ok.
And yeah the bucks with 2 top 75 players of all time have absolutely no shot.

Give me a break

Add the Knicks too, who's won the season series against the Celtics last year, and kept it close this year. Pacers can be added to this list as well.

Kings could also give them a run too. Healthy Lakers look dominant too. I think the kool-aid is strong on this one.

[cman88]

I see nobody one team in the East good enough to beat Boston in a 7 game series assuming Boston is healthy that is. Orlando too young and weak offensively. Milwaukee no depth, bad defensively and matchup badly with Boston. Maybe Philly. I see Philly as the only semi-threatening team but I don't believe they have enough for to outlast Boston in 7. Still, they have a small chance. So 1 team in the East.

In the West, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans are possibilities. Phoenix is another wild card as we haven't seen them healthy yet. Clippers are a long shot but reluctant to write them off just yet. So up to 5 teams in the West. I'd favour Boston over all 5 of them in a series but they are good enough to have a real shot at knocking Boston off.

Really? So the heat who have beaten this core 2 times in 3 years in the eastern finals and took them to 7 in the other one has no chance at beating them in the playoffs? Lol ok.
And yeah the bucks with 2 top 75 players of all time have absolutely no shot.

Give me a break

bucks just lost to the bulls whom we blew out by 30 points. if we really are using single game losses as a barometer of the team the Bucks should be out of it.

I guess I don't take much out of a single game loss in the regular season. they happen.

[scaryjerry]

I see nobody one team in the East good enough to beat Boston in a 7 game series assuming Boston is healthy that is. Orlando too young and weak offensively. Milwaukee no depth, bad defensively and matchup badly with Boston. Maybe Philly. I see Philly as the only semi-threatening team but I don't believe they have enough for to outlast Boston in 7. Still, they have a small chance. So 1 team in the East.

In the West, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans are possibilities. Phoenix is another wild card as we haven't seen them healthy yet. Clippers are a long shot but reluctant to write them off just yet. So up to 5 teams in the West. I'd favour Boston over all 5 of them in a series but they are good enough to have a real shot at knocking Boston off.

Really? So the heat who have beaten this core 2 times in 3 years in the eastern finals and took them to 7 in the other one has no chance at beating them in the playoffs? Lol ok.
And yeah the bucks with 2 top 75 players of all time have absolutely no shot.

Give me a break

bucks just lost to the bulls whom we blew out by 30 points. if we really are using single game losses as a barometer of the team the Bucks should be out of it.

I guess I don't take much out of a single game loss in the regular season. they happen.

I’m not saying the Celtics are done because they lost to the pacers? I’m not saying they’re done at all. I’m saying they’re not playing good enough win or loss and all the red flag problems they’ve had during this era are still prevalent. They’re a mentally weak team that is the worst 3rd quarter team in the league and a giant turnover machine when things get tight and just want to jack up 3s. Not good enough. This is not even mentioning that we are clearly at a coaching disadvantage against most other contenders.

[Birdman]

Pacers are a nice team & probably be a top 5 team in the East come playoff time

[satch]

Quote from scaryjerry "I’m not saying the Celtics are done because they lost to the pacers? I’m not saying they’re done at all. I’m saying they’re not playing good enough win or loss and all the red flag problems they’ve had during this era are still prevalent. They’re a mentally weak team that is the worst 3rd quarter team in the league and a giant turnover machine when things get tight and just want to jack up 3s. Not good enough. This is not even mentioning that we are clearly at a coaching disadvantage against most other contenders."
[/quote]

Agree-spot on

[Kernewek]

I see nobody one team in the East good enough to beat Boston in a 7 game series assuming Boston is healthy that is. Orlando too young and weak offensively. Milwaukee no depth, bad defensively and matchup badly with Boston. Maybe Philly. I see Philly as the only semi-threatening team but I don't believe they have enough for to outlast Boston in 7. Still, they have a small chance. So 1 team in the East.

In the West, Denver, Minnesota and New Orleans are possibilities. Phoenix is another wild card as we haven't seen them healthy yet. Clippers are a long shot but reluctant to write them off just yet. So up to 5 teams in the West. I'd favour Boston over all 5 of them in a series but they are good enough to have a real shot at knocking Boston off.

Really? So the heat who have beaten this core 2 times in 3 years in the eastern finals and took them to 7 in the other one has no chance at beating them in the playoffs? Lol ok.
And yeah the bucks with 2 top 75 players of all time have absolutely no shot.

Give me a break

bucks just lost to the bulls whom we blew out by 30 points. if we really are using single game losses as a barometer of the team the Bucks should be out of it.

I guess I don't take much out of a single game loss in the regular season. they happen.

I’m not saying the Celtics are done because they lost to the pacers? I’m not saying they’re done at all. I’m saying they’re not playing good enough win or loss and all the red flag problems they’ve had during this era are still prevalent. They’re a mentally weak team that is the worst 3rd quarter team in the league and a giant turnover machine when things get tight and just want to jack up 3s. Not good enough. This is not even mentioning that we are clearly at a coaching disadvantage against most other contenders.

I am pretty well established as a 'one game probably doesn't matter too much' person, but I do think - as I've said in other threads - the narrative that trading Smart, Grant, and Timelord was going to push the team to "play to their potential" according to ownership was vastly overstated.

That is to say: Tatum and Brown are always going to define how far we get in any given season, and while they've both improved year on year as players, improvement isn't a linear experience for most athletes (or most people), and we will still see 'off' nights from both. As fans, I think, the hope is that the refinement overall continues to trend towards better play and a better record, which is, in my opinion, what we're seeing in the season thus far.