Barring more injuries, Celtics are still a playoff team next season. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them avoid the play-in also.
Not with their roster as is. That is maybe a 32 win team as its constructed right now.
I'll gladly take the over on that.
If they left the roster exactly as it is today, 32 win ball park feels fair to me.
However, I do not expect them to do that. It won't take much to take this team up to .500 even if they lose Horford & Kornet.
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If you left it as it is:
G: A Simons, Pritchard
G: D White, Scheierman
F: Hauser, J Walsh
F: Jaylen, G Niang
C: Queta, Amari Williams / X Tillman
That bench is going to kill that group. 3 of the 5 bench positions (SG, SF, C) will be among the worst bench players in the league at their respective positions. Niang is a below average bench player at PF. Pritchard is the only genuine asset on the bench. Overall, it has a good chance at being the worst bench in the league despite having last year's 6th man of the year. That is how weak the other 4 spots are.
Queta as a starter will be one of the worst starting centers in the league. The other 4 starting positions are fine.
If you actually gave the other starters a solid supporting cast, they could easily lead a 45-49 win team. But if you deliberately leave them with a bunch of 3rd stringers (Queta, Scheierman, J Walsh, Amari Williams, X Tillman) you will actively sabotage the team. It would be a hard tank move.
What happens when your main 5 guys get hurt and you have to add another 3rd stringer into the rotation. Or 2 of the 5 guys get hurt at the same time. It will kill the team.
The main difference between Detroit being a playoff team this year and a disaster zone the year before was swapping out all the 3rd stringers who were getting regular minutes and replacing them with legitimate NBA role players. Having 9-10 deep of quality role players is undervalued in terms of wins and losses.
People underestimate how large the negative impact is of having non-rotation caliber players in your rotation.