2023 CS Historic Draft - How's My Team?

[Kernewek]

OKC (Celtic Fan Forever):
PG: Chauncey Billups / Baron Davis
SG: Michael Redd / Dan Majerle / Allan Houston
SF: Peja Stojakovic / Gerald Wallace
PF: Shawn Kemp / Antonio McDyess / Toni Kukoc
C: Dwight Howard / Tyson Chandler

Full disclosure: I love this team. Dwight & Kemp running the floor, Tre-ja and Michael Redd on the wing, Chauncey at the helm with some hustle & character off the bench (Gerald Wallace & Baron Davis, respectively)? Imagine if those post-Carmelo Denver teams actually had, y'know, star power instead of Kennith Faried and Ty Lawson (no disrespect to those guys)? Chills. Beautiful.

But I think the wing defense is going to be an issue, I think pulling either Dwight or Kemp out of the lane is easily abusable, and I think the drop off from your starters to your bench is pretty massive. I can see this team running out to a big lead in the first 7 minutes, then frittering it away - especially if the shots stop falling.

I think CFF put Majerle into the starting lineup over Redd, a decision I really like.  It brings more balance to both the starters and the bench.  While I agree with you that I don't love the Wallace / McDyess / Chandler bench front court as a collective unit, I *do* really like Davis, Redd and Kukoc as primary backups.  Allan Houston, in that role, would also shine, and Gerald Wallace was a legit impact player on both sides of the ball as a SF/PF.

I wouldn't want to see a lot of Peja + Redd playing together, but I think CFF addressed that.

==================================

(also I'd swap Mike Conley for Rose because that's just a blatantly silly bench/starter pairing)

Not a big fan of bringing starting caliber players off of the bench due to fit / role?

In both Conley vs. Rose and Majerle vs. Redd, the more talented player is giving way to a much better defender who does more things to help out the other starters, while the "better" player lifts the bench.

Ah I can see that - I'm in the middle of reading the thread end to end while making comments, so I guess I haven't made it to the swap yet for Redd & Majerle.

Generally, I just think Mike Connelly, while eminently servicable, doesn't hold much water vs Rose in his prime, but I also think it would work better based on what we know about the players (if we're factoring this into the equation). Do we really want to squander Derrick Rose by putting him in there for 15-20 minutes per game? The dude was a force of nature (albeit fairly redundant with Giannis) but I'm not sure he's going to really hit that level with limited playing time.

[Roy H.]

Generally, I just think Mike Connelly, while eminently servicable, doesn't hold much water vs Rose in his prime, but I also think it would work better based on what we know about the players (if we're factoring this into the equation). Do we really want to squander Derrick Rose by putting him in there for 15-20 minutes per game? The dude was a force of nature (albeit fairly redundant with Giannis) but I'm not sure he's going to really hit that level with limited playing time.

Apologies to others about the detour...

At his best, Conley was a 21/6 all-defense guy with excellent efficiency.  For somebody to play off of Giannis and Malone, I think the fit is fantastic.  And, I think sometimes people get too enamored with the idea of "off the bench means low minutes" argument.  John Havlicek is considered the quintessential Sixth Man -- the award is names after his -- and he averaged 37 minutes per game for his career.

To bring that back to the current league, the bench played greatly into my philosophy.  Teams will run into a brick wall for the first three or four minutes of the game against a Dikembe / Brand / Iguodala / Mookie lineup, with the fifth starter being one of Reggie Lewis, Andrei Kirilenko, or Manu Ginobili.  Just total smashmouth to set the tone.  But, most games, Boogie will be seeing 30 or so minutes per night.  IT -- who had an MVP level season -- will be getting minutes at both guard spots. 

I tend to be pretty deferential to what my own view of a team's ideal lineup would be, because my philosophy has always been that we're GMs, not coaches.  The coaches should be expected to make the most logical use of the team's skills as assembled (unless their coach is Joe Mazzulla).  The only real exception to that is when a GM is *adamant* that certain guys will start and play certain minutes.  That hasn't happened in this draft, as far as I'm aware.

[Kernewek]

Yeah I haven't made it to your team yet for commentary but I think we're both looking at similar ideologies when it comes how to build a team correctly - for the specific sidebar I just think Mike was a fine player, underrated for the vast majority of his time in the league, but I think he does more in fewer minutes than his replacement does, which to me indicates a bench role rather than a starter's minutes.

On the topic of your frontcourt, I do think Elton & Mutumbo might struggle with getting thrown into so many pick-and-roll sets, but there's only one ball and Iggy can more or less cover whoever the primary ball handler is, so it's more of a tangential worry based on watching a lot of old footage on youtube (it's crazy now, going back, realising just how many possessions are post-ups in comparison to the modern game)

[theswitch]

Toronto (theswitch):
PG: Penny Hardaway (95-96) / Fat Lever (87-88) / Terrell Brandon (95-96)
SG: Paul Westphal (78-79) / Paul Pressey (85-86)
SF: Marques Johnson (78-79) / Danny Granger (08-09)
PF: Jermaine O'Neal (03-04) / Bobby Jones (76-77) / Kiki VandeWeghe (82-83)
C: Marc Gasol (12-13) / Serge Ibaka (13-14)

There are things here I really like - what I'm not so sure of is who Penny (the best player on your team hands down) is going to play with. Maybe it's my memory here and quite possibly I'm wrong, but part of what made Penny and Shaq so good was the transition game - Gasol and Jermaine don't feel like a natural fit for that here, especially running with Westphal and Penny.

But! With Granger at the 4 and Ibaka at the 5, this suddenly makes sense to me. I'll confess to an unfamiliarity with Marques Johnson's game, so maybe that's why I'm not 'getting it'.

This point was giving me fits for a while! I think it was probably the best critique of my team for most of the draft. I was really trying to find Penny a running mate for a while because I agree with you that's when he's at his best. And I think it's a fair critique and a more surgical one than some of the other ones put forward. Here are my two thoughts on why I think it's not a huge issue:

1 -- Penny is really good in the halfcourt! Unfortunately the NBA advanced stats are tracked one year too late. But in that 95-96 year they were 3rd in offensive rating but 17th in pace, which implies a lot of their offense was in the half court. The next year without Shaq, the Orlando Magic were 22nd in the league in fast-break points and 24th in pace but still 16th in offensive rating which implies they were better in the half court than the rest. Penny only played 59 games. His other teammates were pretty awful other than Horace Grant, who even still is not an offensive force. The team stunk. And they still made the playoffs and pushed Miami in the first round. Penny willed that team despite only playing 59 games to be a competitive offensive team. So he's probably better with a running mate but he's fine either way.

But let's take it for granted -- Penny is better with someone to run with.

2 -- I've made the point before that '03-'04 was a historically bad passing team for the Indiana Pacers and therefore a herculean year for JO. JO was the same player the year before but with a different cast. Among players over 6'10, Jermaine was fourth in the league in fast-break points that year with 2.1 per game. If you look at guys like Amar'e in his best seasons, he was at 2.3 in '07-'08, 1.9 in '06-'07. He did spike higher than that earlier in his career to be truly elite (3.9) but for the most part he was in the same range. Blake is the same (a few years in the 2-ish range, spiked to 5 for a year or two). Shawn Kemp in '96-'97 was at 2.0 a game. If you zoom out, the Indiana Pacers were 5th in the league that year in fast-break points. His teammates were Artest, a geriatric Reggie Miller, Al Harrington, Brad Miller, Jamaal Tinsley. Not exactly Steve Nash and Amare and Marion. JO was a huge piece of that fast break engine.

The other mitigant is when Ibaka, as you mentioned, or Bobby Jones, plays. Bobby is getting beat up for his offensive here. In the half court, he's a cutter. In the fast break, he's a gazelle. 6'10, fast, most hustle on the court. He got most of his points with making stops and then being the first guy down the other way. That is his lifeblood. Not the flashiest guy, but the guy who is going to keep annoying you by beating you down the court.

So I think it's an astute point -- one that bothered me for a while. It was my worry when I drafted Gasol because he's more half court oriented but ultimately I think you need to be able to score and win and the half court. I wanted a Kemp or Amare or Blake originally to run with Penny. But when I zoom out, young JO was an athletic freak who played on a fast break team, Bobby Jones made a living off defense-fueled fast break points, and Ibaka lives for that too. So I felt like Gasol was the only one who wouldn't get out and run, and I thought that was okay. The rest of 'em can run and Gasol can be the trailer to either shoot or reset the offense.

[Who]

Not a lot of high efficiency (scoring) PGs off the bench. IT and Arenas really stand out from the pack.

[Who]

The 1996-97 Magic were 38-21 with Penny (53 win pace) and only 7-16 without him (25 win pace).

It's a shame Penny missed so many games that year. They would've been a 4th/5th seed caliber team if he had of been healthier. They had a pretty solid supporting cast around him but it lacked a 2nd star. Rony Seikaly, Horace Grant, Nick Anderson, Dennis Scott. Some good bench pieces - Derek Strong, a young Darrell Armstrong, Danny Schayes, Brian Shaw, Gerald Wilkins. Kinda similar to that 1993-94 Bulls team led by Pippen after MJ's retirement.

I thought Seikaly was a huge addition. Gave them a low post threat. Averaged 17ppg 9.5rpg that season. Gave them someone they could throw the ball to other than Penny who could create his own shot. Who they could play their offense out from. Really helped solidify them.

Shame they ran up against the Heat in the first round. And then they got slammed by injuries. I forget how many big men went down. I think H Grant and Seikaly both got hurt. That was one of the most fun solo-performances I have ever seen when Penny carried that injury-hit team against a monster Miami Heat defense.

[Who]

One of the interestin things with Penny was how large of a difference he made in the W-L column later in his career in Phoenix even though his body was slowing down.

The 2000 Suns were 42-18 with Hardaway (57 win pace) and only 11-11 without him. Penny missed the entire 2001 season and played the entire 2002 season. The 2003 Suns were 34-24 with Penny (48 win pace) and just 10-14 without him (34 win pace).

That 2000 season was probably his last good year. He was already no-longer an All-Star guy but he was a plus starter still. That was probably his last year at that level. Even so, in 2003, big difference again for the team when healthy vs injured.

The additive qualities of his ball-handling, passing, rebounding, useful defense, versatile shot making, creation = made him such an impactful player even in the slowed down version of Penny.

[Who]

That is a really good point up above about Jermaine O'Neal. He was a big time athlete in his early years. He'd be a good running big man at PF.

A great running big man at C when M Gasol goes to the bench. Toronto can have one of the faster lineups in the league with JO at C and B Jones, Marques or S Ibaka at PF.

[theswitch]

The 1996-97 Magic were 38-21 with Penny (53 win pace) and only 7-16 without him (25 win pace).

It's a shame Penny missed so many games that year. They would've been a 4th/5th seed caliber team if he had of been healthier. They had a pretty solid supporting cast around him but it lacked a 2nd star. Rony Seikaly, Horace Grant, Nick Anderson, Dennis Scott. Some good bench pieces - Derek Strong, a young Darrell Armstrong, Danny Schayes, Brian Shaw, Gerald Wilkins. Kinda similar to that 1993-94 Bulls team led by Pippen after MJ's retirement.

I thought Seikaly was a huge addition. Gave them a low post threat. Averaged 17ppg 9.5rpg that season. Gave them someone they could throw the ball to other than Penny who could create his own shot. Who they could play their offense out from. Really helped solidify them.

Shame they ran up against the Heat in the first round. And then they got slammed by injuries. I forget how many big men went down. I think H Grant and Seikaly both got hurt. That was one of the most fun solo-performances I have ever seen when Penny carried that injury-hit team against a monster Miami Heat defense.

Yup -- thank you for finding the win-loss stats. I think his supporting cast was fine but not particularly elite (nobody draftable here from an offensive standpoint) and they still almost beat the Heat who had Hardaway, Mashburn, Majerle, PJ Brown (who I thought might get drafted and would've gotten drafted in a 15 player league), and Mourning. Plus Voshon Lenard. Good freaking team. 61-21, went to the Conference Finals until they lost to MJ.

Penny put that team on his back. 31 points per game in the series on 47% shooting, 37% from deep. Got to the line. 2.4 steals and 1.4 blocks a game. Only two other guys got into double figures (Darrell Armstrong at 11 and Derek Strong at 12). Nick Anderson went 12-36. Gerald Wilkins went 16-45. Brutal. Penny went over 40 twice in that series to will the team to a Game 5 where he could only muster 33.

[Donoghus]

Roster:

PG: Mark Price ('92-93) / Rajon Rondo ('09-10)
SG: Mitch Richmond ('94-95) / Andrew Toney ('83-84) / Doug Christie ('02-03)
SF: Shawn Marion ('05-06) / Michael Finley ('00-01)
PF: Maurice Lucas ('77-78) / Zach Randolph ('10-11) / David West ('07-08)
C: Vlade Divac ('00-01)/ Theo Ratliff ('03-04)

Mark Price - 17.3 PPG, 8.0 AST, .545 eFG, .948 FT%  1st team All-NBA
Mitch Ritchmond - 22.8 PPG, .498 eFG, 4.4 TRB, All Star Game MVP
Shawn Marion - 21.8 PPG, 11.8 TRB, .560 eFG, 2.0 STL, 3rd team All-NBA
Maurice Lucas - 16.4 PPG, 9.1 TRB, 3.1 AST, .458 FG%,  1st team All-Defensive, 2nd team All-NBA
Vlade Divac - 12.0 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.9 AST, .482 FG%, All Star

Rajon Rondo - 13.7 PPG, 9.8 AST, 2.3 STL, 4.4 TRB, .517 eFG, 1st team All-Defensive
Andrew Toney - 20.4 PPG, 4.8 AST, .532 eFG, All Star
Doug Christie - 9.4 PPG, 4.7 AST, 2.3 STL, .545 eFG, 1st team All-Defensive
Michael Finley - 21.5 PPG, 5.2 TRB, 4.9 AST, 1.6 STL, .487 eFG,  All Star
Zach Randolph - 20.1 PPG, 12.2 TRB, .507 eFG, 2.2 AST, 3rd team All-NBA
David West - 20.6 PPG, 8.9 TRB, .481 eFG, All Star
Theo Ratliff - 7.9 PPG, 7.2 TRB, 3.6 BLK, .485 eFG, 85 games played

- I had the 11th pick so knew I would be scrambling and developing a draft strategy on the fly and seeing how things dropped.  Decided to go binky route while building as well rounded a team as I could.

- I wanted a team that could play a variety of styles; finesse, run & gun, bully ball, etc..  I also wanted a team that was balanced on both ends of the floor.  I feel like I have a good balance of offensive players and well as defenders (perimeter & interior).  I have several guys who were All-NBA defense in the years I chose as well as offensive guys like Price, Ritchmond, Finley, Randolph, West who can score. 

- I think passing and ball movement is one of this team's biggest strengths.  Plenty of guys who were renown for their passing and abilities to move without the ball. I don't see a lot of offensive stagnation with this group.  I think its a serviceable group when it comes to outside shooting. 

- The whole is greater than the sum of the parts here.  I think the pieces fit and its a dynamic unit that would be fun to watch on the court.   This team would have chemistry.  It starts with the floor general Price and extends to the leadership of guys like Lucas and Zach who wouldn't be afraid to muck it up and stand up for their guys.

-And I'm definitely bringing back the 80s era powder blue jerseys.

[Donoghus]

Sorry for delay.

It appears I had a lot more time to do these things in my late 20s/early 30s than now.  Shocking.

[Kernewek]

I... am going to have to wait until Friday to get my writeup finished. Sorry all. Been a mad couple of weeks.

In the meantime, I do have the seasons:
Tim Hardaway   PG   1990-1991
Gilbert Arenas   PG   2005-2006
Glen Rice   SF   1996-1997
Joakim Noah   C   2013-2014
Rasheed Wallace   PF   2000-2001
Jason Williams   PG   1999-2000
Arvydas Sabonis   C   1995-1996
Alvin Robertson    SG   1985-1986
Mark Aguirre   SF   1986-1987
Tony Allen   SF   2010-2011
Derrick Coleman   PF   1993-1994

[Kernewek]

Toronto (theswitch):
PG: Penny Hardaway (95-96) / Fat Lever (87-88) / Terrell Brandon (95-96)
SG: Paul Westphal (78-79) / Paul Pressey (85-86)
SF: Marques Johnson (78-79) / Danny Granger (08-09)
PF: Jermaine O'Neal (03-04) / Bobby Jones (76-77) / Kiki VandeWeghe (82-83)
C: Marc Gasol (12-13) / Serge Ibaka (13-14)

There are things here I really like - what I'm not so sure of is who Penny (the best player on your team hands down) is going to play with. Maybe it's my memory here and quite possibly I'm wrong, but part of what made Penny and Shaq so good was the transition game - Gasol and Jermaine don't feel like a natural fit for that here, especially running with Westphal and Penny.

But! With Granger at the 4 and Ibaka at the 5, this suddenly makes sense to me. I'll confess to an unfamiliarity with Marques Johnson's game, so maybe that's why I'm not 'getting it'.

This point was giving me fits for a while! I think it was probably the best critique of my team for most of the draft. I was really trying to find Penny a running mate for a while because I agree with you that's when he's at his best. And I think it's a fair critique and a more surgical one than some of the other ones put forward. Here are my two thoughts on why I think it's not a huge issue:

1 -- Penny is really good in the halfcourt! Unfortunately the NBA advanced stats are tracked one year too late. But in that 95-96 year they were 3rd in offensive rating but 17th in pace, which implies a lot of their offense was in the half court. The next year without Shaq, the Orlando Magic were 22nd in the league in fast-break points and 24th in pace but still 16th in offensive rating which implies they were better in the half court than the rest. Penny only played 59 games. His other teammates were pretty awful other than Horace Grant, who even still is not an offensive force. The team stunk. And they still made the playoffs and pushed Miami in the first round. Penny willed that team despite only playing 59 games to be a competitive offensive team. So he's probably better with a running mate but he's fine either way.

But let's take it for granted -- Penny is better with someone to run with.

2 -- I've made the point before that '03-'04 was a historically bad passing team for the Indiana Pacers and therefore a herculean year for JO. JO was the same player the year before but with a different cast. Among players over 6'10, Jermaine was fourth in the league in fast-break points that year with 2.1 per game. If you look at guys like Amar'e in his best seasons, he was at 2.3 in '07-'08, 1.9 in '06-'07. He did spike higher than that earlier in his career to be truly elite (3.9) but for the most part he was in the same range. Blake is the same (a few years in the 2-ish range, spiked to 5 for a year or two). Shawn Kemp in '96-'97 was at 2.0 a game. If you zoom out, the Indiana Pacers were 5th in the league that year in fast-break points. His teammates were Artest, a geriatric Reggie Miller, Al Harrington, Brad Miller, Jamaal Tinsley. Not exactly Steve Nash and Amare and Marion. JO was a huge piece of that fast break engine.

The other mitigant is when Ibaka, as you mentioned, or Bobby Jones, plays. Bobby is getting beat up for his offensive here. In the half court, he's a cutter. In the fast break, he's a gazelle. 6'10, fast, most hustle on the court. He got most of his points with making stops and then being the first guy down the other way. That is his lifeblood. Not the flashiest guy, but the guy who is going to keep annoying you by beating you down the court.

So I think it's an astute point -- one that bothered me for a while. It was my worry when I drafted Gasol because he's more half court oriented but ultimately I think you need to be able to score and win and the half court. I wanted a Kemp or Amare or Blake originally to run with Penny. But when I zoom out, young JO was an athletic freak who played on a fast break team, Bobby Jones made a living off defense-fueled fast break points, and Ibaka lives for that too. So I felt like Gasol was the only one who wouldn't get out and run, and I thought that was okay. The rest of 'em can run and Gasol can be the trailer to either shoot or reset the offense.

This is interesting. I'll be honest, more or less the first thing I remember about the Pacers from that year is the Malice at the Palace, so my first memories of JO are essentially when he punched a fan and his play for the C's as a backup ( not really a gazelle by that point ) so I find his fast break points pretty surprising. I'd have to go back and watch some more of that tape, because (again memory) I seem to recall a lot of those early 00's teams were slow with a capital slow.

[Who]

1995-96 Magic 40-14 with Shaq in the lineup. 22-8 without him with Penny Hardaway leading the show.

I believe Penny was 2nd in the league in scoring early that season behind MJ prior to Shaq's return.

[gouki88]

I'm thinking if everyone has their write-ups in by before next week (I've lost track, unsure if anyone is yet to), we can open the ballot next week if that suits?