Jaylen Brown Supermax

[Kernewek]

When talking about Jaylen’s supermax, instead of using dollars, it makes sense to use the percentage of the cap every year.  This percentage will inform how tradeable or not the contract is every season, and not the actual dollar amount.  As it’s very likely that the cap will increase 10% every year due to the new media deal, here are the percentages, assuming he signs a 5-year max deal:

Year 1: 35%
Year 2: 34.36%
Year 3: 33.55%
Year 4: 32.61%
Year 5: 31.56%

This is different than some of the max deals signed before July 2021, as the cap increased very slowly/was static for several seasons, due to Covid and the lack of cap smoothing after the last media deal was signed.  With 8% raises, those contracts approached 38% of the cap a couple years into their deal, and became more burdensome for their teams, as opposed to less burdensome.

This is a very good post.

[BitterJim]

When talking about Jaylen’s supermax, instead of using dollars, it makes sense to use the percentage of the cap every year.  This percentage will inform how tradeable or not the contract is every season, and not the actual dollar amount.  As it’s very likely that the cap will increase 10% every year due to the new media deal, here are the percentages, assuming he signs a 5-year max deal:

Year 1: 35%
Year 2: 34.36%
Year 3: 33.55%
Year 4: 32.61%
Year 5: 31.56%

This is different than some of the max deals signed before July 2021, as the cap increased very slowly/was static for several seasons, due to Covid and the lack of cap smoothing after the last media deal was signed.  With 8% raises, those contracts approached 38% of the cap a couple years into their deal, and became more burdensome for their teams, as opposed to less burdensome.

TP. And to add some more context since "supermax" is used for both the 40% contracts some guys have gotten and the 30/35% maxes that others have gotten a few years before they're normally eligible:
He could get 35% of the cap in year 3 if he just signed a normal max at that point. ThIs (non-40%) super max is more about making it attractive for younger guys to sign long term (instead of having an out when they hit the 7/10 year milestones) than it is to get them more long-term money. It's the 40% supermax that turns into the huge millstone around teams' necks (especially small-market teams)

Edit: and in a case where Brown signed a normal 30% max next summer (for 2 years), then a normal 35% max after that, he would take up:
Year 1: 30%
Year 2: 29.45%
Year 3: 35%
Year 4: 34.36%
Year 5: 33.55%

We're talking a difference of less than 1% of the cap per year average. Like $10 million over the next 5 years. (And that assumes Brown wouldn't be eligible for the 40% supermax after his 10th season, in which case years 3-5 become 40%, 39.27%, and 38.55%. That's the kind of contract that gets teams in trouble)

[cman88]

when guys like Lamelo ball and anthany edwards are making 50+million and greg van fleet is making 43million. Jaylen Brown at 60million really is not a crazy deal. I remember when Harden got $45million and it looked crazy. now it seems reasonable.

At a time when Minnesota has 3 supermax contracts, Suns going out to make a big 3, Heat going all out to make a big 3. Boston fans crying "we cant pay Jaylen! trade him for lesser players!"

I don't get it...other than caring about Wycs money or roster building 3-4 years in the future I don't see the uproar. We are a team on the precipice so you need to pay to win a championship. If we don't win a championship in the next 3 years, Brad is blowing this thing up anyway.

look at what the warriors are paying for probably the 5th seed in the West. hoping they can get one more out of that core.

[johnnygreen]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

[KG Living Legend]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

 Likely over details like the player option.  Jaylen could walk after year three, with the fourth year being a player option. Or he could sign for even more money here or elsewhere. 

[ozgod]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

 Likely over details like the player option.  Jaylen could walk after year three, with the fourth year being a player option. Or he could sign for even more money here or elsewhere.

Yes and the incentives.

[johnnygreen]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

 Likely over details like the player option.  Jaylen could walk after year three, with the fourth year being a player option. Or he could sign for even more money here or elsewhere.

Yes and the incentives.

Since Jaylen was not a free agent, couldn’t his agent and the Celtics have worked on the logistics long before Jaylen was eligible to sign the contract? Something seems off. I wonder if the team is not offering the supermax and that's the holdup.

[Kernewek]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

 Likely over details like the player option.  Jaylen could walk after year three, with the fourth year being a player option. Or he could sign for even more money here or elsewhere.

Yes and the incentives.

Since Jaylen was not a free agent, couldn’t his agent and the Celtics have worked on the logistics long before Jaylen was eligible to sign the contract? Something seems off. I wonder if the team is not offering the supermax and that's the holdup.

It could be. Another thing to consider is that since it mostly doesn't matter when the contract is signed as long as it is signed within the window (from now until the last day before the regular season starts), there is one way which does have an impact on Brown's future; he could be holding off on signing it to increase the amount of time he can't be traded, since that clock starts one year from the day the extension is signed.

[Vermont Green]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

 Likely over details like the player option.  Jaylen could walk after year three, with the fourth year being a player option. Or he could sign for even more money here or elsewhere.

Yes and the incentives.

Since Jaylen was not a free agent, couldn’t his agent and the Celtics have worked on the logistics long before Jaylen was eligible to sign the contract? Something seems off. I wonder if the team is not offering the supermax and that's the holdup.

It could be. Another thing to consider is that since it mostly doesn't matter when the contract is signed as long as it is signed within the window (from now until the last day before the regular season starts), there is one way which does have an impact on Brown's future; he could be holding off on signing it to increase the amount of time he can't be traded, since that clock starts one year from the day the extension is signed.

That is kind of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul though as until he signs the extension, he could be traded this off season.  So he is adding to the time that he could be traded now, but yes, adding time at the end where he can't.  I think this delay favors the Celtics.  They still have the option to trade him (however unlikely) until he signs the extension.

I am not all that worried about this.  I think there is about a 99% chance that he signs the max extension in due course, 1% chance he is traded before signing the extension, and about 0.000001% that he decides not to sign and isn't traded in order to become a UFA at the end of the season.

[BringToughnessBack]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

My thought is we are not offering the full supermax of 35% but somewhere over 30 but under 35 percent most likely. He really doesn't have much leverage as well because if he does not sign that, we trade him and he will get much less as the supermax will not follow him in the trade(I believe that is the case).

Only one player on this team should get the full supermax and his name is not Brown.

[Vermont Green]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

My thought is we are not offering the full supermax of 35% but somewhere over 30 but under 35 percent most likely. He really doesn't have much leverage as well because if he does not sign that, we trade him and he will get much less as the supermax will not follow him in the trade(I believe that is the case).

Only one player on this team should get the full supermax and his name is not Brown.

That would be a pretty hard ball approach.  I could see the Celtics taking the position if they have a favorable trade already worked out or an understanding for a trade; such as Lillard.  Then the Celtics could say if Brown won't take a discount, the Celtics would prefer to trade him to Portland.  They don't really want to trade him, but they can't build a winning team if both Brown and Tatum go supermax.

This is possible of course, but I feel highly unlikley.

[Kernewek]

Ummm, why is this still lingering? There is no longer the excuse of seeing how the Grant Williams free agency played out.

 Likely over details like the player option.  Jaylen could walk after year three, with the fourth year being a player option. Or he could sign for even more money here or elsewhere.

Yes and the incentives.

Since Jaylen was not a free agent, couldn’t his agent and the Celtics have worked on the logistics long before Jaylen was eligible to sign the contract? Something seems off. I wonder if the team is not offering the supermax and that's the holdup.

It could be. Another thing to consider is that since it mostly doesn't matter when the contract is signed as long as it is signed within the window (from now until the last day before the regular season starts), there is one way which does have an impact on Brown's future; he could be holding off on signing it to increase the amount of time he can't be traded, since that clock starts one year from the day the extension is signed.

That is kind of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul though as until he signs the extension, he could be traded this off season.  So he is adding to the time that he could be traded now, but yes, adding time at the end where he can't.  I think this delay favors the Celtics.  They still have the option to trade him (however unlikely) until he signs the extension.

I am not all that worried about this.  I think there is about a 99% chance that he signs the max extension in due course, 1% chance he is traded before signing the extension, and about 0.000001% that he decides not to sign and isn't traded in order to become a UFA at the end of the season.

You're absolutely right, I'm just running through reasons why the extension hasn't been offered & signed

[Celtics2021]

There are many small details of negotiations that could be worked out.  Options and incentives are obviously the biggest, but trade bonuses are also something, and even signing bonuses and salary advances are negotiable points.

If Brown intends to sign and the Celtics don’t intend to trade him, and both sides know both things to be true, there’s no actual hurry for a deal to get done.  The official deadline is in October, they’d certainly like one before training camp, and ideally while everyone is still in Vegas.  But sometimes negotiating over even small points requires deadlines to make people give up a position.

I’m personally in such a situation now at work.  Been negotiating with a company since October.  We had a soft deadline of March 15th.  We blew through that and set a “hard deadline” of June 15th.  But since all the time we all knew that the for real deadline was July 15th, we barely talked for April and May, and really started talking again in June 10th.  And now it’s July 10th, and we’ll probably agree to something in the next few days that looks 95% like a proposal that was made in mid-January, but there was no deadline so both sides kept negotiating until they were convinced they got the best they could.

In other words, it could be about something as seemingly small as when his salary is paid throughout the year.  It could be much larger also, but there’s very little that can be read into the situation from the outside.

[Who]

I am surprised they are even talking contract extension at all at this stage in the summer. This is the time to be concentrated on FA and getting in your top targets.

Contract extensions are for later in the summer in late August and September when FA has died down and you can concentrate on taking care of non-urgent business.

[Surferdad]

There are many small details of negotiations that could be worked out.  Options and incentives are obviously the biggest, but trade bonuses are also something, and even signing bonuses and salary advances are negotiable points.

If Brown intends to sign and the Celtics don’t intend to trade him, and both sides know both things to be true, there’s no actual hurry for a deal to get done.  The official deadline is in October, they’d certainly like one before training camp, and ideally while everyone is still in Vegas.  But sometimes negotiating over even small points requires deadlines to make people give up a position.

I’m personally in such a situation now at work.  Been negotiating with a company since October.  We had a soft deadline of March 15th.  We blew through that and set a “hard deadline” of June 15th.  But since all the time we all knew that the for real deadline was July 15th, we barely talked for April and May, and really started talking again in June 10th.  And now it’s July 10th, and we’ll probably agree to something in the next few days that looks 95% like a proposal that was made in mid-January, but there was no deadline so both sides kept negotiating until they were convinced they got the best they could.

In other words, it could be about something as seemingly small as when his salary is paid throughout the year.  It could be much larger also, but there’s very little that can be read into the situation from the outside.

This.