Brogdon is Better than Smart

[footey]

I love Marcus Smart and felt the pain of losing him in the blockbuster trade for Kristap Porzingis.  Initially it was tinged with disappointment over losing our "heart and soul" leader of this team.  That is unquantifiable, and will be a default argument as to why trading Smart rather than Brogdon makes the Celtics worse (assuming KP comes here in either case).  Recency bias also factors in here: Brogdon became progressively awful in Heat series due to the injury to his elbow, and this obscures how well he played for us during the entire regular season and much of the playoffs.

Objectively, however, I can't help but conclude that Brogdon played significantly better for the Celtics than Smart last regular season. Looking at their stats, it is hard to argue otherwise.  Per 100 possessions, Brogdon was much more efficient in FG% (48.4% v 41.5%), 3P% (44.4% v 33.6%, on same volume! (8.3 v 8.5 attempts)), FT% (87% v 74.6%). 

This resulting in a net positive rating for Brogdon of plus 9 and minus 1 for Smart (Smart's defensive rating was only 1 point better, 112 v 113).

This exceptional difference in efficiency resulting in Brogdon outscoring Smart by over 10 points per 100 possessions (28 v 17.5).

Brogdon was a significantly better rebounder (7.8 v 4..  Smart also had nearly one more turnover per 100 than Brogdon (3.6 v 2.7).

To be fair, Smart averaged 2.6 assists more per 100 (9.5 v 6.9) and averaged 1 more steal (2.3 v 1.3).

Their blocks were near identical per 100 (0.6 Smart, 0.5 Brogdon).

The advanced metrics build up an even stronger case for Brogdon:  Brogdon had an OBPM of positive 2.3 (2nd best on the team behind Tatum (4.)  and Smart's OBPM was minus 1.8, ranking 12th on the team. Smart's DBPM was only slightly better than Brogdon's (0.8 v 0.6), leaving Brogdon with the 4th best BPM on the team (plus 2., and Smart with the 10th best (minus 1). Brogdon trailed only Tatum, Rob and Al in BPM, and was better than Derrick White (plus 2.4).

Brogdon also had the 4th best Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) at 2.1, trailing only Tatum, White and Horford, while Smart was 9th place at 0.5 VORP.

I suppose some of this stark differences could be attributed to Smart playing starter minutes vs Brogdon coming off the bench.  I would not know how to factor that in statistically.  Open to suggestions. 

This is not an attempt to bash Marcus Smart.  Love the guy, and wish him the best.  Just want to point out that Brogdon before the injury late in playoffs had an impressive season, which of course was acknowledged by winning 6th man of the year.  The John Havlicek Award.

I hope we keep him.

Below are highlights of some of his best plays last season.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYi4GoUkDIs

[Vermont Green]

I agree that I hope we keep Brogdon but the market value of the two players make it clear that Smart has move value.  We don't know for sure but the report on the Brogdon trade was that LAC was going to give up:

Marcus Morris
Amir Coffey
Pick #30

What MEM gave up for Smart was

Tyus Jones
Pick #25
2024 GSW First

It is clear that the Celtics got quite a bit more for Smart.  I think it was always the plan to trade just one of them in a move to balance the roster.  I think the preference was to trade Brogdon over Smart.  That was plan A.  That fell through so they went to plan B.  Smart and Brogdon are comparable players.  In my mind, Smart is a little more valuable than Brogdon, I would have rather kept Smart.  But I like Brogdon too and look forward to him making a run for back to back 6MOY awards.

[TheReaLPuba]

MB is less mistaken prone but he’s not “better” than Smart only because he’s not consistently available.

We have to remember that trading Smart was Plan B….had the Brogdon trade not fell through we would have still had Smart.

Honestly would have ran the same guys back and played deeper in the rotation for the regular season…keep guys healthier for the post season run

[Roy H.]

Both had down years defensively, but Brogdon seemed below average on that end.

[liam]

MB is less mistaken prone but he’s not “better” than Smart only because he’s not consistently available.

We have to remember that trading Smart was Plan B….had the Brogdon trade not fell through we would have still had Smart.

Honestly would have ran the same guys back and played deeper in the rotation for the regular season…keep guys healthier for the post season run

I personally think that we were going to do two trades. The Brogdon for Zinger with the Clips and Wash and another one with Memphis for the picks and Tyus Jones plus guys to make the money work.

[Muzzy66]

I agree - Brogdon is a better player then Smart in my opinion.  He's a better ball handler, less turnover prone, at least as good a passer, much better and more efficient scorer.  Given the choice I'd rather have Brogdon than Smart. 

Only thign against Brogdon is his injury history, but then Smart has missed his share of games too over the years.

[celticinorlando]

I am taking Brogdan. I think he is a better and smarter player. I think at some point he will be the starting PG for Boston with as the 6th man.

[Who]

I have them on a similar tier. Along with D White. Just different skill-sets.

I rate Smart a bit higher than Brogdon though (same tier, but slightly ahead) because I believe he is easier to win with than Brogdon. Brogdon more ball dominant and weak defensively which makes him tougher to build a team around than Smart who can fit easier in more situations as a high level defense, quality ball-handler & passer, and below average but serviceable 4th/5th scoring option / shooter.

[lbgreen33]

I too Love MS, But come on! A Fully healthy, Brogan is the better player!! The only reason MB didn't start over Smart were health concerns! Everyone in the League knows what Brogan can do fully health. That brings us to the MB Dilemma, can He Stay Healthy!! I brought this up a few weeks back in another post, most disagreed when I asked if the MB experiment worked. I said No. Because He Got hurt! I whole Trade fell through because of his Health concerns.

I think this proved what I said, it did fail, BUT it can still succeed if MB can get through a whole season!!  Back to the original post. Of course a healthy Brogan is Better than a Healthy Smart.
Can we Keep Brogan Healthy? If we can, He is a Home Run off the Bench!!

Healthy Prayers for MB!

[timpiker]

I'm sorry you think Brogdon is better than Smart.

[lbgreen33]

I'm sorry you think Brogdon is better than Smart.

He is!! I Love MS, Heart and sole!! But a Fully Heathy MB is better. We never got that.

[NextCeltic34]

Think we're better off with White starting cause at least he can do other things around the big 3 plus is way better defensively. Brogdon is a selfish player IMO and if he wants to get his shots up he's best served in that 6th man role.

[lbgreen33]

Maybe the Question was, Was MB a Better Celtics Player than MS?  My answer to that is No, MS was a better player last year than MB.
But, over their careers I think Brogan was the better player. He was Rookie of the Year! The main knock on him has always been his health!!

[No Nickname]

MB is less mistaken prone but he’s not “better” than Smart only because he’s not consistently available.

We have to remember that trading Smart was Plan B….had the Brogdon trade not fell through we would have still had Smart.

Honestly would have ran the same guys back and played deeper in the rotation for the regular season…keep guys healthier for the post season run

I personally think that we were going to do two trades. The Brogdon for Zinger with the Clips and Wash and another one with Memphis for the picks and Tyus Jones plus guys to make the money work.

The way that would have boiled down is that right now, instead of Brogdon we'd have Tyus Jones as our 6th man.

While Jones is a good player, and younger, I'm not sure he'd even sniff 6th Man of the Year status.

The YouTube link in the OP shows how [dang] good Brogdon is.

[lbgreen33]

Think we're better off with White starting cause at least he can do other things around the big 3 plus is way better defensively. Brogdon is a selfish player IMO and if he wants to get his shots up he's best served in that 6th man role.

I agree with this! but, I felt myself waiting for Brogan to get hurt, it felt at times he was waiting for it as well.
I actually think the selfish play came from, let me show what I can do before I get hurt.
I am not saying he is fragile, He just is one of those players that gets hurt.