Author Topic: Should we be worried about Horford?  (Read 3392 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Should we be worried about Horford?
« on: June 15, 2023, 02:07:40 PM »

Offline LilRip

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6987
  • Tommy Points: 411
Our offense/defense works so well because of Horford. And not just because he can shoot threes. He’s the best screen setter, one of the better guys at keeping the ball moving, and he’s a rock solid interior and post defender.

But Father Time is undefeated and eventually, he’s going to drop off. I think if he regresses this year, even if he’s 75% the player he is, the team is going to feel it in a major way.
- LilRip

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2023, 02:16:08 PM »

Online Phantom255x

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 37076
  • Tommy Points: 3380
  • On To Banner 19!
Horford is still capable of being a great role player/fringe starter. The problem though is Timelord is too injury prone and limited on offense, so with the way the roster is constructed Horford has to be an everyday starter who regularly plays 35+ MPG. That's just not sustainable for Horford as he turns 37. It was a similar issue last year and it hurt both Horford and the team. Muscala for some reason never played.

And Mazzulla's 3-ball mentality also seemed to hurt Horford because Horford often passed out of open looks/lanes to let another guy shoot a 3, or Horford himself would attempt pull-up 3s out of nowhere.

CBS needs to acquire another big man, period. Even if you keep all of Horford, Timelord, and 1 or both of Muscala/Griffin. Need more.
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2023, 02:46:44 PM »

Offline Atzar

  • Danny Ainge
  • **********
  • Posts: 10243
  • Tommy Points: 1893
He is already dropping off.  His ability to hold up at a well-above-average level on the perimeter was a huge part of our defensive success in the second half of the Ime year, and I'd even go so far as to say he was quietly our best defensive player that year despite the hardware that Smart won and the praise that Rob got.  But he faded quite a bit on that end this year, and I'd expect him to continue to track downward.  Keeping up with guards on the perimeter is hard for anybody, let alone a 37-year-old big man. 

We should be looking to transition him to a bench role.  But we don't have anybody good enough to replace him right now, and IMHO Brad's biggest task this offseason is finding a viable starting big who can approximate as much of Al's toolkit as possible.  We may not love the cost but it's the piece that this roster needs most. 

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2023, 03:00:45 PM »

Offline PAOBoston

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8134
  • Tommy Points: 535
Should have been worried about him last offseason. He can still be a very good role player but the team really depends heavily on him for defense and offense. Him falling off a cliff offensively in the playoffs destroyed their offense.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2023, 03:29:22 PM »

Offline michigan adam

  • Derrick White
  • Posts: 251
  • Tommy Points: 19
Should have been worried about him last offseason. He can still be a very good role player but the team really depends heavily on him for defense and offense. Him falling off a cliff offensively in the playoffs destroyed their offense.

Last off-season gallinari was brought in to suck ip some of those minutes and some of that pounding. We all know how that went.  The bigger problem in rw3 is simply too limited on offense..  his 1 v 1 defense against bigger centers is also not good enough. My opinion is to trade rw3 for a center who can defend other centers for at least 20 mins a game and create a viable 3 big rotation of hortford, gallinari, and the new guy and let go, kornet, etc suck up a lesser amount each.  Rw3 is the reason hortford is getting more minutes than his aging body can handle.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2023, 03:44:19 PM »

Offline PAOBoston

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8134
  • Tommy Points: 535
Should have been worried about him last offseason. He can still be a very good role player but the team really depends heavily on him for defense and offense. Him falling off a cliff offensively in the playoffs destroyed their offense.

Last off-season gallinari was brought in to suck ip some of those minutes and some of that pounding. We all know how that went.  The bigger problem in rw3 is simply too limited on offense..  his 1 v 1 defense against bigger centers is also not good enough. My opinion is to trade rw3 for a center who can defend other centers for at least 20 mins a game and create a viable 3 big rotation of hortford, gallinari, and the new guy and let go, kornet, etc suck up a lesser amount each.  Rw3 is the reason hortford is getting more minutes than his aging body can handle.
I agree about Gallinari but that injury happened in the summer so they had plenty of time to rectify it before the season and never did.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #6 on: June 15, 2023, 04:04:29 PM »

Online Goldstar88

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13538
  • Tommy Points: 1711
Not worried at all. He can just transition to the bench and play 20-25MPG. He's only making $10M this coming season.
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
Quote
At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2023, 04:40:43 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2427
  • Tommy Points: 260
I wanted them to find a successor last year. The Brogdon thing fell in their laps and I'm sure they felt they couldn't turn it down, but the 2023 first-rounder was one of their few expendable and tradeable assets. I don't really understand this idea that Gallinari was supposed to help. Sure, he's 6'10'' but you're just going to forget about all the stuff Horford does on defense and the screens he sets on offense? Gallinari seems more like an offensive specialist to me. Horford didn't even play the 4 a lot this year, he was primarily a center. If you put Gallinari at center you're basically going all offense, 5-out, gimmick lineup, so that doesn't sound like a feasible long-term option either.

Regardless of whether they end up getting a strict 4 or a 5 or a hybrid of both, they just need more playable guys with size to hold up in the playoffs. In the battle of attrition, Horford couldn't hold up, especially with the way they kept losing games and allowing series to go 6 and 7 games and only one day of rest in between. They need someone who can do all the dirty work and grab rebounds and capably defend the best players when switched onto. It should be somebody who cares little about numbers or point totals and can show the Js and the other passive guys on this roster a little fire and energy.

All the best teams have these kinds of guys, versatile big wings or PFs like Aaron Gordon, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, etc. I don't think Tatum can do it because he's already our best offensive player and his body is top heavy. He gets flustered mixing it up inside because ultimately he doesn't have the hips to create enough leverage. How many times have you seen him struggle to get enough separation just to receive an entry pass? He's 6'9'' but he's off balance because he doesn't have that lower power base to establish himself. I sometimes wonder if he should just go back to being lighter like Durant, regaining some of his burst and focusing on perfecting the outside shot.

The problem is these guys are rare and usually cost money unless you get a lesser version of them (e.g. PJ Tucker). You can show that you're a title contender and maybe some vet goes there for cheap, but it's not like the Celtics are a sure thing right now. They can't be paying three guards 17-22 million and not having any frontcourt depth, it's just bad balance. Their backup guards should be cheaper players that they developed, like Austin Reeves, Christian Braun, or Immanuel Quickley. Or, you just go bargain hunting with the mid-level with vets like Donte DiVincenzo or Bruce Brown last year.

Obviously it's tough to find taller two-way players as opposed to scoring guards which are relatively common. Maybe you don't even successfully get the perfect guy this offseason. However, long term I don't think you win a title without a true Horford replacement either at the 4 or 5. They didn't get one last year, hopefully they find one this year. The chances that it's someone as good as Horford was is miniscule unless you deal a major asset though.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2023, 04:43:40 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18834
  • Tommy Points: 1119
Yeah I'm concerned with Horford for next season.

Is John Collins still available? Gimme guys who can rebound and do damage in the paint.


#FireJoe
#JTJB (Just Trade Jaylen Brown) 2022 - 2025
I am the Master of Panic.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #9 on: June 15, 2023, 05:07:23 PM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3142
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
Not worried at all. He can just transition to the bench and play 20-25MPG. He's only making $10M this coming season.
That (mistakenly) implies someone is capable of stepping up and eating those minutes whilst playing at a similar level.

Horford's decline really worries me. We haven't found anyone to offset his decline + Timelord's propensity for being in street clothes. I don't think it helps that our offence has pivoted away from Horford's #1 strength (passing). He is essentially now just a shooter, which I do not like.

We need big man help.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #10 on: June 15, 2023, 05:10:54 PM »

Online Who

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 52798
  • Tommy Points: 2568
Yes, we should be. Horford holds this team together. His age, decline and future exit is a huge hurdle for this team to navigate while continuing their quest for an NBA Title.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #11 on: June 15, 2023, 10:27:24 PM »

Online Goldstar88

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13538
  • Tommy Points: 1711
Not worried at all. He can just transition to the bench and play 20-25MPG. He's only making $10M this coming season.
That (mistakenly) implies someone is capable of stepping up and eating those minutes whilst playing at a similar level.

Horford's decline really worries me. We haven't found anyone to offset his decline + Timelord's propensity for being in street clothes. I don't think it helps that our offence has pivoted away from Horford's #1 strength (passing). He is essentially now just a shooter, which I do not like.

We need big man help.

If Rob plays 25mpg and AL gets 23mpg at the C, that should help with wear and tear on both guys. Gallo can likely play some 5 in a pinch as well. Then you have Tatum as the starting PF with Gallo and Grant off the bench. Seems reasonable to me.  Plenty of depth.
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
Quote
At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #12 on: June 15, 2023, 10:29:13 PM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3142
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
Not worried at all. He can just transition to the bench and play 20-25MPG. He's only making $10M this coming season.
That (mistakenly) implies someone is capable of stepping up and eating those minutes whilst playing at a similar level.

Horford's decline really worries me. We haven't found anyone to offset his decline + Timelord's propensity for being in street clothes. I don't think it helps that our offence has pivoted away from Horford's #1 strength (passing). He is essentially now just a shooter, which I do not like.

We need big man help.

If Rob plays 25mpg and AL gets 23mpg, that should help with wear and tear. Gallo can likely play some 5 in a pinch. Then you have Tatum as the starting PF with Gallo and Grant off the bench. Seems reasonable to me.
Rob plays that MPG on 50-65% of games. What happens in the others? Gallo is a combination of Rob’s proneness to injury and Horford’s age.

Seems reasonable if we want to be destroyed inside. That is a shockingly shallow big man group that is on the brink of collapse.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2023, 10:45:22 PM »

Online Goldstar88

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13538
  • Tommy Points: 1711
Not worried at all. He can just transition to the bench and play 20-25MPG. He's only making $10M this coming season.
That (mistakenly) implies someone is capable of stepping up and eating those minutes whilst playing at a similar level.

Horford's decline really worries me. We haven't found anyone to offset his decline + Timelord's propensity for being in street clothes. I don't think it helps that our offence has pivoted away from Horford's #1 strength (passing). He is essentially now just a shooter, which I do not like.

We need big man help.

If Rob plays 25mpg and AL gets 23mpg, that should help with wear and tear. Gallo can likely play some 5 in a pinch. Then you have Tatum as the starting PF with Gallo and Grant off the bench. Seems reasonable to me.
Rob plays that MPG on 50-65% of games. What happens in the others? Gallo is a combination of Rob’s proneness to injury and Horford’s age.

Seems reasonable if we want to be destroyed inside. That is a shockingly shallow big man group that is on the brink of collapse.

Rob played 23.5mpg last year and nearly 30mpg the year before. Yes, he missed games during the regular season, but has been available for the postseason which is really what matters. If you think that Brad should move on from Rob and find a more durable center, that’s a different conversation. If we are talking purely about depth, the Celtics have enough.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2023, 11:01:40 PM by Goldstar88 »
Quoting Nick from the now locked Ime thread:
Quote
At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: Should we be worried about Horford?
« Reply #14 on: June 15, 2023, 11:03:33 PM »

Offline hpantazo

  • Tommy Heinsohn
  • *************************
  • Posts: 25355
  • Tommy Points: 2756
It's been a concern for a while , and even more now. Who's out there that we can reasonably target as a legit Horford replacement while Al transitions to the bench role? There's no way Rob and Gallo are going to be sufficient. We need guys who can reliably and consistently defend players like Embiid and Jokic and still move the ball on offense. Rob still goes for every pump fake and gets eaten up by those type of players, and Gallo can't be the guy we rely on to defend Embiid in key moments of a playoff series.