Celtics (0-2) at Heat (2-0) ECF Game #3 5/21/23

[SparzWizard]

There were instances where we won a Game 3 against Miami before losing Game 4 to make it trailing 3-1. Hopefully we win two in MIA even tho I give that a 2% chance of happening

[jpotter33]

Been thinking about the Butler coverage and how we’ve done it in the past. It’s hard. Single coverage he can generally beat with his elite iso midrange game, and JT or potentially JB are probably the only ones who can actually keep up with him consistently and challenge his shots. Doubling is also an option, but with how the others have been shooting and passing that is also dangerous.

If I remember right, in 2017 after losing two at home one of the strategies that Brad employed was almost a Box and 1 type defensive scheme. He put AB on Butler and the other four guys played their man normally. However, AB played tight, denial defense on Butler and didn’t help off of him with a soke focus on limiting Butler.

I think that would be one strategy to employ here. Rotate Smart, JB, and Tatum in this role and try to limit Butler as much as possible without presenting double teams. Doing this in combination with stopping the easy switches and going under the high PnR screens (making Jimmy prove he can make the three in that situation and making it easier to stick with the assignment) would seemingly work to limit Jimmy.

The bigs’ extreme drop coverage also needs adjusting, but we seem settled on that strategy as awful as it’s been for us.

Offensively, we need to get JB and Al good open looks early. Can’t win without their offense. Let them get a rhythm and confidence early, so that if they continue to double JT late in the game the rest of the guys can actually make them pay. But Joe does still need to run actions to get JT the ball more in the fourth abd stop having him bring it up.

[blink]

Let's go CELTICS!!!   One game at a time. 

We need a more efficient JB today.  Get him involved early, try some of the great Smart to JB back doors, as Miami continues to pressure JB tight without the ball.   Let him get a few easy 2s / or a dunk or two. 

Al Horford needs to give us SOMETHING today as well.  He has averaged 4.5 points a game in this series.  That is not enough from a starter.  Attack the RIM Al, not every drive needs to be a kick to a 3 point shooter.  Al gives the team energy when he drives to the rim hard.

Keep the turnovers below 10, value the ball on offense, move without the ball more on offense.  Heat had 13 more shots than us in Game 2.  That can't happen if we want to win.

Rebound the ball, gave up way too many off rebounds in game 2.

Do all that and we can win this game.

[Phantom255x]

I think we'll have a better idea of how this series goes after tonight. If the C's win, this could still go 6 games, *maybe* a chance at 7 games. If Heat win, then it's over but I fear it may be a sweep or even the Heat winning in 5 at TD Garden comfortably. It really is two Game 7s in a row for the C's here.

I will say, if they truly fold over the next few games then that'd be very, very disappointing. To the point where I'd support some big changes in both roster and coaching staff. Miami is tough, but the C's can't be losing to them in just 4 or 5 especially with the C's basically being healthy too and more talented (and Miami has Herro missing). That'd be embarrassing. Already kind of embarrassing being down 2-0 with both losses at home

[GetLucky]

Been thinking about the Butler coverage and how we’ve done it in the past. It’s hard. Single coverage he can generally beat with his elite iso midrange game, and JT or potentially JB are probably the only ones who can actually keep up with him consistently and challenge his shots. Doubling is also an option, but with how the others have been shooting and passing that is also dangerous.

If I remember right, in 2017 after losing two at home one of the strategies that Brad employed was almost a Box and 1 type defensive scheme. He put AB on Butler and the other four guys played their man normally. However, AB played tight, denial defense on Butler and didn’t help off of him with a soke focus on limiting Butler.

I think that would be one strategy to employ here. Rotate Smart, JB, and Tatum in this role and try to limit Butler as much as possible without presenting double teams. Doing this in combination with stopping the easy switches and going under the high PnR screens (making Jimmy prove he can make the three in that situation and making it easier to stick with the assignment) would seemingly work to limit Jimmy.

The bigs’ extreme drop coverage also needs adjusting, but we seem settled on that strategy as awful as it’s been for us.

Offensively, we need to get JB and Al good open looks early. Can’t win without their offense. Let them get a rhythm and confidence early, so that if they continue to double JT late in the game the rest of the guys can actually make them pay. But Joe does still need to run actions to get JT the ball more in the fourth abd stop having him bring it up.

This is why Rob doesn't play. He can't switch or guard the perimeter at all. Unfortunately, his spatial awareness is often so poor that he can't even execute a drop or hedge correctly. In most PnRs, he might as well not be there at all.

We can't have both. Rob has yet to be completely exposed because of the random fear he seems to generate in driving players, but he's given up many open 3s and is kind of due for a "yep, he cost us" game.

[hpantazo]

Let's go Celtics!! We got this. I can't see this team going out without a fight and making the series tough for Miami.

[jpotter33]

Been thinking about the Butler coverage and how we’ve done it in the past. It’s hard. Single coverage he can generally beat with his elite iso midrange game, and JT or potentially JB are probably the only ones who can actually keep up with him consistently and challenge his shots. Doubling is also an option, but with how the others have been shooting and passing that is also dangerous.

If I remember right, in 2017 after losing two at home one of the strategies that Brad employed was almost a Box and 1 type defensive scheme. He put AB on Butler and the other four guys played their man normally. However, AB played tight, denial defense on Butler and didn’t help off of him with a soke focus on limiting Butler.

I think that would be one strategy to employ here. Rotate Smart, JB, and Tatum in this role and try to limit Butler as much as possible without presenting double teams. Doing this in combination with stopping the easy switches and going under the high PnR screens (making Jimmy prove he can make the three in that situation and making it easier to stick with the assignment) would seemingly work to limit Jimmy.

The bigs’ extreme drop coverage also needs adjusting, but we seem settled on that strategy as awful as it’s been for us.

Offensively, we need to get JB and Al good open looks early. Can’t win without their offense. Let them get a rhythm and confidence early, so that if they continue to double JT late in the game the rest of the guys can actually make them pay. But Joe does still need to run actions to get JT the ball more in the fourth abd stop having him bring it up.

This is why Rob doesn't play. He can't switch or guard the perimeter at all. Unfortunately, his spatial awareness is often so poor that he can't even execute a drop or hedge correctly. In most PnRs, he might as well not be there at all.

We can't have both. Rob has yet to be completely exposed because of the random fear he seems to generate in driving players, but he's given up many open 3s and is kind of due for a "yep, he cost us" game.

Eh, I don’t think that’s wholly the problem. Rob is definitely worse at it than Al, and you’re right that in a lot of high PnRs he may as well be on the bench as low as he is in the paint.

However, when Al is the sole big he does nearly as extreme of drop coverage as Timelord being way back in the paint, so to me this seems to be a purposeful component of their scheme. I don’t think Rob has become so immobile that we have to do this to avoid gettting exploited out there.

Like, I’m not even arguing we have to switch to the big being up and hedging the ball handler (though I think that’s a better option than what we’re currently doing). But there’s absolutely no reason to be that dang low in the paint on the PnR. You can still do “drop coverage” while being up a bit closer even around the free throw line area to provide at least some type of threat to challenge the ball handler.

[jpotter33]

https://twitter.com/billsimmons/status/1660355693906661377?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Bill with a good thread of some thoughts before game 3. In particular, on guarding Butler with more if Tatum and with more consistent 80 foot pressure. Also talks about exploiting Robinson more.

I disagree about the Tatum offense in the fourth, though. I think that has really been key for us in wins this playoffs having JT scoring. They’re going to go right back to doubling him late, so we need to make sure to have sets and options where he can make those plays when they throw those coverages at us.

[Phantom255x]

https://twitter.com/billsimmons/status/1660355693906661377?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Bill with a good thread of some thoughts before game 3. In particular, on guarding Butler with more if Tatum and with more consistent 80 foot pressure. Also talks about exploiting Robinson more.

I disagree about the Tatum offense in the fourth, though. I think that has really been key for us in wins this playoffs having JT scoring. They’re going to go right back to doubling him late, so we need to make sure to have sets and options where he can make those plays when they throw those coverages at us.

I wish Tatum would get closer to the basket even after making a pass while double-teamed. Butler does the same thing. Get doubled, make the pass, but continue to play during the action and either cut inside, or post up on someone. That's how Butler typically still scores inside with an easy layup or second chance points.

When a double team arrives and you pass it off, that double team isn't going to remain on the player otherwise someone else is just WIDE open somewhere else. JT usually though seems to just hang outside the arc and so it's either a jacked up 3 late in the shotclock he takes, or someone else taking the shot.

[Phantom255x]

How it feels going into tonight on the road:

[blink]

https://twitter.com/billsimmons/status/1660355693906661377?s=46&t=lGU0TGXtwjkuVuoin6WTNw

Bill with a good thread of some thoughts before game 3. In particular, on guarding Butler with more if Tatum and with more consistent 80 foot pressure. Also talks about exploiting Robinson more.

I disagree about the Tatum offense in the fourth, though. I think that has really been key for us in wins this playoffs having JT scoring. They’re going to go right back to doubling him late, so we need to make sure to have sets and options where he can make those plays when they throw those coverages at us.

I wish Tatum would get closer to the basket even after making a pass while double-teamed. Butler does the same thing. Get doubled, make the pass, but continue to play during the action and either cut inside, or post up on someone. That's how Butler typically still scores inside with an easy layup or second chance points.

When a double team arrives and you pass it off, that double team isn't going to remain on the player otherwise someone else is just WIDE open somewhere else. JT usually though seems to just hang outside the arc and so it's either a jacked up 3 late in the shotclock he takes, or someone else taking the shot.

Yes, yes, yes.   AND,  get JT moving without the ball, so he already has movement to the basket before he gets the ball.  Both JT and JB are elite when then get the ball moving to the bucket.  Starting at the top of the key and trying to generate offense is extremely difficult for anyone, everything becomes easier when we are moving without the ball.  It also tires out the def players who have to guard you.  Maybe all these 3s for the heat role players aren't so easy after they have been run all over the court and off screens for a full 1/2 of basketball.  Put Tatum and Brown in movement and find them that way.  Also please set some better screens today.  I know we aren't elite at that, but we can do better than we have been.

[gouki88]

Been thinking about the Butler coverage and how we’ve done it in the past. It’s hard. Single coverage he can generally beat with his elite iso midrange game, and JT or potentially JB are probably the only ones who can actually keep up with him consistently and challenge his shots. Doubling is also an option, but with how the others have been shooting and passing that is also dangerous.

If I remember right, in 2017 after losing two at home one of the strategies that Brad employed was almost a Box and 1 type defensive scheme. He put AB on Butler and the other four guys played their man normally. However, AB played tight, denial defense on Butler and didn’t help off of him with a soke focus on limiting Butler.

I think that would be one strategy to employ here. Rotate Smart, JB, and Tatum in this role and try to limit Butler as much as possible without presenting double teams. Doing this in combination with stopping the easy switches and going under the high PnR screens (making Jimmy prove he can make the three in that situation and making it easier to stick with the assignment) would seemingly work to limit Jimmy.

The bigs’ extreme drop coverage also needs adjusting, but we seem settled on that strategy as awful as it’s been for us.

Offensively, we need to get JB and Al good open looks early. Can’t win without their offense. Let them get a rhythm and confidence early, so that if they continue to double JT late in the game the rest of the guys can actually make them pay. But Joe does still need to run actions to get JT the ball more in the fourth abd stop having him bring it up.

I would love to see Mazz task JB with that kind of singular defensive focus. Brown thrives on defence when he can lock in on one opponent, as we saw with his good D against Harden. It's when he's playing off-ball on a lesser player that he can get lost. Task him with going at Jimmy step-for-step.

[hodgy03038]

Expecting the worst but hoping for the best Go Celts.

[JSD]

The Celtics thrive on the road, and tonight's hard-fought victory will bring the series to a 1-2 standing. After an impressive blowout win against the Heat in game 4, the Celtics return to Boston with the series tied at 2-2.

[Phantom255x]

I sort of wonder if this team may have "peaked" in Game 7 of last series. They had to go 6 games against ATL, then grind it out in 7 against PHI in a series where they were also down 1-0 and 3-2 at different points. They obviously showed up late in Game 6, then blew doors in Game 7 with JT's 51.

But now this series, they just look off. Tatum hasn't been bad but he certainly hasn't been as effective in the 4th, and Jaylen/Smart/Horford have mostly been bad too.

Another example of this might be the Warriors last round. Remember when Curry put up 50 in Game 7 against SAC on the road in the first round. Impressive effort, but they may have "peaked" too. They were up 3-2, but surprisingly blew Game 6 at home which was telling (they usually never do that) and went to a Game 7. Then next round against LAL, Klay is mostly bad, Poole is useless, and Curry only had like 2 great games but the others were mostly meh. I didn't think LAL dominated them, GSW just looked sort of checked out themselves and Curry couldn't carry them another round.

I'm not sure JT can this round either unless a few others wake up, particularly Jaylen. There's still time, but Jaylen this round is like Tatum in last year's Finals which isn't ideal.