NBA Playoffs 2023

[Phantom255x]

John Clark
@JClarkNBCS
Source confirms Joel Embiid has a sprained LCL. He may have to wear a brace for the knee when he returns. There is some hope that he can play towards the beginning of the Sixers second round series but he will be playing through a knee injury
@ramonashelburne
 was first

I expect him to play, BUT I doubt he's 100% for a while. And also, his style of play probably doesn't bode well with this kind of injury. He's going to have to adjust

[kraidstar]

John Clark
@JClarkNBCS
Source confirms Joel Embiid has a sprained LCL. He may have to wear a brace for the knee when he returns. There is some hope that he can play towards the beginning of the Sixers second round series but he will be playing through a knee injury
@ramonashelburne
 was first

Wow. So Clips look done. Giannis is banged up, Middleton is visibly diminished,  Embiid is hobbled.  So 3 of the 4 teams I was most worried about are in trouble.

The celtics really have an incredible opportunity here. We might not face a healthy experienced team until the finals.

 I'm assuming either the nuggets, lakers, suns, or Warriors will represent the west.  All of those teams have some pretty serious flaws, and we should be favored against any of them.

 The nuggets are the most complete, but they are a bad road team, they're not a seasoned as most contenders, and eventually Jokic's defense will be a problem.

Lakers have two injury-prone stars and a mediocre supporting cast.

Suns have too many questionable defenders.

Warriors have 3 aging stars, but I won't count them out due to experience and their younger talent. I also think they're still in our heads.

But overall this is a very favorable field for Boston right now.

[jpotter33]

John Clark
@JClarkNBCS
Source confirms Joel Embiid has a sprained LCL. He may have to wear a brace for the knee when he returns. There is some hope that he can play towards the beginning of the Sixers second round series but he will be playing through a knee injury
@ramonashelburne
 was first

I expect him to play, BUT I doubt he's 100% for a while. And also, his style of play probably doesn't bode well with this kind of injury. He's going to have to adjust

Eh, it’s not as much his style of play, as he’s generally ground bound and more skills-based than a super athletic freak.

It’s more his overall size combined with movement that’s the problem. His defense - especially coming out to the perimeter - will be what suffers the most. We should heavily target him with switches and involve Al in a lot of actions, as he’ll have a ton of trouble guarding out there and closing space.

[cman88]

I understand Jimmy was unstoppable, but what is more likely? JImmy has another huge game in one of the next 3. Or Brook lopez gets 36 again?

I'm trying to convince myself using this same logic.  But, the counterpoint is "yes, Lopez got 36, but Jrue and Middleton only combined for 28", combined with recognition that Giannis was merely great, rather than peak MVP-level.

If Jimmy "only" goes for 35 - 40 in each of the next three games, will Miami have enough firepower?  They were a very bad offensive team, and they're down Herro and Oladipo.  Who will step up?

I'll play devil's advocate here. The Heat were a very bad offensive team UNTIL they faced the bucks.to me that is a symptom of the Bucks poor defense and I don't see that changing. It's been that way all year.

Heat are just doing what the Celtics did to them in their 40 point win. Can't stop guards from driving and keep giving up wide open 3's that isn't gonna  magically change.

At some point, we are 4 games in and Miami keeps doing the same thing it's not an outlier. They made Duncan Robinson look good

[Who]

Drives per game for the LA Lakers in the Memphis series

A Reaves = 10.8 drives per game (36.2mpg)
LeBron = 8.0 drives per game (38.6mpg)
D Russell = 6.5 drives per game (31mpg)
Schroder = 5.0 drives per game (only 22mpg)

This is a comment I was making in last night's game - that Austin Reaves is LA's best off the dribble player. They keep looking to him to create dribble penetration.

LeBron stepped it up late but he has been uncharacteristically reluctant to drive the ball in this series. It is not even great D that is stopping him. On most possessions he is not even seriously looking to drive the ball. He is just holding the ball up top and then making a sideways pass. Or running a PnR and making a pass after hardly any inward movemen.

His numbers were even worse in the first two games for drives. I believe he was only down at 5.5 drives per game then. I don't know whether it is his ankle or what (old age?) but it has been strange to see.

This whole team has been so out of whack for a regular LeBron team where he is the main driver and playmaker off the dribble. On this squad, he is only one of 4 guys and he is not even the main dribble  drive threat. That is A Reaves who ain't great. And D Russell and Schroder are mediocre. He is not seceding to high caliber teammates. He is seceding to mediocrity. Why? Because he cannot out-produce mediocrity (in terms of dribble penetration)?

Is that old age? Decline? Or is his ankle stopping him?

[Phantom255x]

I understand Jimmy was unstoppable, but what is more likely? JImmy has another huge game in one of the next 3. Or Brook lopez gets 36 again?

I'm trying to convince myself using this same logic.  But, the counterpoint is "yes, Lopez got 36, but Jrue and Middleton only combined for 28", combined with recognition that Giannis was merely great, rather than peak MVP-level.

If Jimmy "only" goes for 35 - 40 in each of the next three games, will Miami have enough firepower?  They were a very bad offensive team, and they're down Herro and Oladipo.  Who will step up?

I'll play devil's advocate here. The Heat were a very bad offensive team UNTIL they faced the bucks.to me that is a symptom of the Bucks poor defense and I don't see that changing. It's been that way all year.

Heat are just doing what the Celtics did to them in their 40 point win. Can't stop guards from driving and keep giving up wide open 3's that isn't gonna  magically change.

At some point, we are 4 games in and Miami keeps doing the same thing it's not an outlier. They made Duncan Robinson look good

That's what I've been saying. Milwaukee could come back, but there's no doubt their defense sucks. Even during their winning streak during the season, they were mostly outscoring teams, which is fine and obviously they were racking up the wins, but it's not like they were stopping teams from putting up 120-130+ either. C's put up 140 on them their last meeting, and 139 on Christmas Day

People always say "oh but this team won't shoot like this against MIL again", but if people have been watching the Bucks, they tend to leave guys open. If guys will be wide open, then yeah they can absolutely shoot like that again. MIA's done it 3 times this series. Giannis returned and they still gave up 119

[liam]

I understand Jimmy was unstoppable, but what is more likely? JImmy has another huge game in one of the next 3. Or Brook lopez gets 36 again?

I'm trying to convince myself using this same logic.  But, the counterpoint is "yes, Lopez got 36, but Jrue and Middleton only combined for 28", combined with recognition that Giannis was merely great, rather than peak MVP-level.

If Jimmy "only" goes for 35 - 40 in each of the next three games, will Miami have enough firepower?  They were a very bad offensive team, and they're down Herro and Oladipo.  Who will step up?

I'll play devil's advocate here. The Heat were a very bad offensive team UNTIL they faced the bucks.to me that is a symptom of the Bucks poor defense and I don't see that changing. It's been that way all year.

Heat are just doing what the Celtics did to them in their 40 point win. Can't stop guards from driving and keep giving up wide open 3's that isn't gonna  magically change.

At some point, we are 4 games in and Miami keeps doing the same thing it's not an outlier. They made Duncan Robinson look good

That's what I've been saying. Milwaukee could come back, but there's no doubt their defense sucks. Even during their winning streak during the season, they were mostly outscoring teams, which is fine and obviously they were racking up the wins, but it's not like they were stopping teams from putting up 120-130+ either. C's put up 140 on them their last meeting, and 139 on Christmas Day

People always say "oh but this team won't shoot like this against MIL again", but if people have been watching the Bucks, they tend to leave guys open. If guys will be wide open, then yeah they can absolutely shoot like that again. MIA's done it 3 times this series.

I've been tooting the horn that the Bucks have a lot of weak defenders on their team. Defense is always a team effort and only as strong as its weakest link. Jrue can't guard everyone and he's too small to guard Butler.

[kraidstar]

John Clark
@JClarkNBCS
Source confirms Joel Embiid has a sprained LCL. He may have to wear a brace for the knee when he returns. There is some hope that he can play towards the beginning of the Sixers second round series but he will be playing through a knee injury
@ramonashelburne
 was first

I expect him to play, BUT I doubt he's 100% for a while. And also, his style of play probably doesn't bode well with this kind of injury. He's going to have to adjust

Eh, it’s not as much his style of play, as he’s generally ground bound and more skills-based than a super athletic freak.

It’s more his overall size combined with movement that’s the problem. His defense - especially coming out to the perimeter - will be what suffers the most. We should heavily target him with switches and involve Al in a lot of actions, as he’ll have a ton of trouble guarding out there and closing space.

 Agree wholeheartedly. The more we make him work on the defensive end the better.  The sixers are already a bit of a slow team. Harden and Tucker are not exactly young.  Our athleticism should give them problems.

 We need to push the pace and wear them down.  I would say we should use a smaller lineup, but then we also still need to be able to defend Embiid inside.  And we'll need to secure those rebounds to start the attack at the other end. I think White, Smart, and Rob are going to be the keys to the series.  I think we can control the pace of the game. Harden is still skilled but has lost some of his explosiveness. We can force the ball out of his hands. It will be critical to contain Maxey 1-on-1, as he will likely end up with the ball in his hands late in the shot clock.

Rob needs to stay out of foul trouble so he can grab boards and start the fast break. These games might largely be a slog. But I see us going on some scoring runs that they will have difficulty matching.

[angryguy77]

Bucks lose and it's sayonara coach Bud. I'm pretty happy Ime took the rockets job now rather than wait. I'd have hated to see him coach the bucks or philly.

[Roy H.]

I understand Jimmy was unstoppable, but what is more likely? JImmy has another huge game in one of the next 3. Or Brook lopez gets 36 again?

I'm trying to convince myself using this same logic.  But, the counterpoint is "yes, Lopez got 36, but Jrue and Middleton only combined for 28", combined with recognition that Giannis was merely great, rather than peak MVP-level.

If Jimmy "only" goes for 35 - 40 in each of the next three games, will Miami have enough firepower?  They were a very bad offensive team, and they're down Herro and Oladipo.  Who will step up?

I'll play devil's advocate here. The Heat were a very bad offensive team UNTIL they faced the bucks.to me that is a symptom of the Bucks poor defense and I don't see that changing. It's been that way all year.

Heat are just doing what the Celtics did to them in their 40 point win. Can't stop guards from driving and keep giving up wide open 3's that isn't gonna  magically change.

At some point, we are 4 games in and Miami keeps doing the same thing it's not an outlier. They made Duncan Robinson look good

In Games 1 - 3 they played without Giannis, though.  Not having a former DPOY certainly makes a difference in the quality of a defense.

The Bucks were the 4th best defense in the NBA this year, so I'm a bit confused by the "it's been that way all year" comment.  Is that just versus Miami this year, or are you counting other games?.  Lopez, Giannis and Holiday all had great defensive years.  Saying that defense now "sucks" (quoting another poster) based upon three games without Giannis and one Boston blowout seems off-base.

I certainly hope that Miami wins the series, but I'm surprised that people are discounting how good the Bucks have been this year.  The primary reason they're down in this series is because they've lost an MVP / DPOY.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Maybe The Bucks peaked too soon when they won 17 in a row.

[Phantom255x]

Game 6 to me is officially the series

I expect the Bucks to win Game 5 regardless, probably a blowout. But if Miami takes Game 6 at home, they're advancing. But if MIL takes Game 6, I think they complete the comeback with a Game 7 win at Fiserv Forum.

[cman88]

I understand Jimmy was unstoppable, but what is more likely? JImmy has another huge game in one of the next 3. Or Brook lopez gets 36 again?

I'm trying to convince myself using this same logic.  But, the counterpoint is "yes, Lopez got 36, but Jrue and Middleton only combined for 28", combined with recognition that Giannis was merely great, rather than peak MVP-level.

If Jimmy "only" goes for 35 - 40 in each of the next three games, will Miami have enough firepower?  They were a very bad offensive team, and they're down Herro and Oladipo.  Who will step up?

I'll play devil's advocate here. The Heat were a very bad offensive team UNTIL they faced the bucks.to me that is a symptom of the Bucks poor defense and I don't see that changing. It's been that way all year.

Heat are just doing what the Celtics did to them in their 40 point win. Can't stop guards from driving and keep giving up wide open 3's that isn't gonna  magically change.

At some point, we are 4 games in and Miami keeps doing the same thing it's not an outlier. They made Duncan Robinson look good

In Games 1 - 3 they played without Giannis, though.  Not having a former DPOY certainly makes a difference in the quality of a defense.

The Bucks were the 4th best defense in the NBA this year, so I'm a bit confused by the "it's been that way all year" comment.  Is that just versus Miami this year, or are you counting other games?.  Lopez, Giannis and Holiday all had great defensive years.  Saying that defense now "sucks" (quoting another poster) based upon three games without Giannis and one Boston blowout seems off-base.

I certainly hope that Miami wins the series, but I'm surprised that people are discounting how good the Bucks have been this year.  The primary reason they're down in this series is because they've lost an MVP / DPOY.

I mean they still gave up 113ppg in the regular season which was middle of the pack.

No one is discounting how good they were in the REGULAR season. Just that if you watch them they give up a ton of wide open 3's and their guards can't cover anyone. Giannis played last night and they still gave up 119 points and Duncan Robinson and Kevin love were knocking them down. and their guards still couldn't stop anyone..crowder didn't even see the floor... obviously if Giannis played they have more of a chance in 2 of their other losses.

I mean that's why we match up so well with them and it's what Miami is doing to them. We also can't discount that is their weakness.

[Moranis]

I understand Jimmy was unstoppable, but what is more likely? JImmy has another huge game in one of the next 3. Or Brook lopez gets 36 again?

I'm trying to convince myself using this same logic.  But, the counterpoint is "yes, Lopez got 36, but Jrue and Middleton only combined for 28", combined with recognition that Giannis was merely great, rather than peak MVP-level.

If Jimmy "only" goes for 35 - 40 in each of the next three games, will Miami have enough firepower?  They were a very bad offensive team, and they're down Herro and Oladipo.  Who will step up?

I'll play devil's advocate here. The Heat were a very bad offensive team UNTIL they faced the bucks.to me that is a symptom of the Bucks poor defense and I don't see that changing. It's been that way all year.

Heat are just doing what the Celtics did to them in their 40 point win. Can't stop guards from driving and keep giving up wide open 3's that isn't gonna  magically change.

At some point, we are 4 games in and Miami keeps doing the same thing it's not an outlier. They made Duncan Robinson look good

In Games 1 - 3 they played without Giannis, though.  Not having a former DPOY certainly makes a difference in the quality of a defense.

The Bucks were the 4th best defense in the NBA this year, so I'm a bit confused by the "it's been that way all year" comment.  Is that just versus Miami this year, or are you counting other games?.  Lopez, Giannis and Holiday all had great defensive years.  Saying that defense now "sucks" (quoting another poster) based upon three games without Giannis and one Boston blowout seems off-base.

I certainly hope that Miami wins the series, but I'm surprised that people are discounting how good the Bucks have been this year.  The primary reason they're down in this series is because they've lost an MVP / DPOY.

I mean they still gave up 113ppg in the regular season which was middle of the pack.

No one is discounting how good they were in the REGULAR season. Just that if you watch them they give up a ton of wide open 3's and their guards can't cover anyone. Giannis played last night and they still gave up 119 points and Duncan Robinson and Kevin love were knocking them down. and their guards still couldn't stop anyone..crowder didn't even see the floor... obviously if Giannis played they have more of a chance in 2 of their other losses.

I mean that's why we match up so well with them and it's what Miami is doing to them. We also can't discount that is their weakness.

Their DRTG was 4th this year.  They played at a top third pace and offensive ppg.  That yields more defensive ppg.  They were 12th in ORTG, so they were actually a much better defense than offense during the year and ended up 5th in net rating.  Their SRS was 4th.  If you want to argue that despite their record, they weren't the best team, I think you could do that, but they were an excellent defensive team by basically every reasonable metric.  BTW, the Celtics have the best SRS, were 2nd in ORTG, 3rd in DRTG, leading to 1st in net rating.  Over the course of the season, the C's built up a strong resume as the best team even with them finishing behind Milwaukee in the standings.

[CelticSooner]

Let’s say the Bucks come back and win this series. Would your opinion of them change? I still look at them the same regardless. If Giannis never got hurt it’s 2-2 at worst. I also think the C’s are their toughest matchup in the league.