Theory: Tatum wants 10k points this year

[Moranis]

I don't really see how today is any different than any random year in the 80's with respect to scoring

I mean I just took 84, the top 10 ppg scorers that season were in order (the league average that season was 110.1 ppg we are about 4 ppg higher than that season this year)

Adrian Dantley
Mark Aguirre
Kiki Vandeweghe
Alex English
Bernard King
George Gervin
Larry Bird
Mike Mitchell
Terry Cummings
Purvis Short

Obviously some HOF players (and an all timer in Bird), but also a whole bunch of guys that if you asked even a regular fan of the sport, they'd have no idea who they were.  Frankly, I don't remember ever seeing Purvis Short play. 

And you have guys like Eddie Johnson who didn't make a single All Star team let alone All NBA, who is still 60th all time in NBA scoring (64th if you count the ABA), scoring 19,202 points over his career. 

The league goes in cycles, it always has and it always will, and with how many games the players take off, even if the ppg upticks some, there aren't going to be a bunch of guys that people say, who is that, getting near the top of the all time lists.  I mean Kevin Durant is 16th all time, but he is 11,766 points behind Lebron.  Even a guy that has been pretty durable, and also a 3 time scoring champ, i.e. James Harden has just 24,427 points (good for 31st all time), but that is 14,023 points behind Lebron.  A player that for his career scores 14,023 points would be 192nd all time right now. 

[GetLucky]

I’ll also add these records are becoming increasingly meaningless. There are like 35 points more scored per game than there were 25 years ago. Kemba Walker scored over 30 in a game on a ten day contract this year. It’s just silly.

It isn't that much higher than the 70s and 80s and scoring was actually higher in the 60s. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Here is a good article on it. https://deadspin.com/nba-offense-scoring-kings-clippers-1850161307

The problem is it is just not good basketball. You are gonna have someone like Colin sexton end up as a top 100 scorer all time if he stays healthy

I didn't say I liked this modern basketball.  Can't stand all the 3pt chucking.  The question is what can they do to make it better. 

However I'm not sure why you mentioned Sexton.  He's only score 5000 pts so far and he doesn't shoot that many 3s.

Sexton was a poor example. I forgot he missed an entire season. I just knew he averaged 25 in a year he was not close to being an all star. But yeah you are gonna have someone like d fox end up with more career points than Clyde drexler or Larry bird.

I like Fox.  He was my favorite in that draft.  He did have an all-star caliber season this year. 

Career numbers are to a large degree dependent on longevity and health.  Bird is already 41st on the career scoring list and CP3, DeRozan and Curry are about to pass him.  Fox is already 25 and is only at 7500 so he's going to need 9 or 10 more healthy seasons at his current level to pass Bird.  Luka, Tatum, Young and Morant all have a good chance of passing Bird.  I'm assuming that you don't have an issue with Luka and Tatum doing so but would with Young and Morant.

TP nice post. Fox is one of favorite players I actually enjoy watching him more than morant and definitely more than young. Fox is averaging 25 or something this year and that doesn’t appear to be going down with the pace the game is played at. So he has a very good chance of passing clear hall of fame players. I think luka and Tatum are future hall of famers but don’t think young or fox are without major development. And definitely not first ballot hall of famer like bird or drexler. That was my original point about these records becoming a lot less meaningful.

Edit: also a closer look on the math here. Larry finished with close to 22k total points. If fox plays most
Of the remaining games he will have close to 2k for the season and be at 8k for his career. If he does this for about 6 more years (and he has been pretty consistent for three) he will closing in on 20k in 6 seasons. Would definitely take less than 9 or 10 if he has good health and doesn’t have a major drop off (and these should be his prime years).

Why are accumulated points totals what you're singling out as a sign of a watered-down game? If Larry and Magic had modern medicine and played 20 years, they'd be much higher up. No one thinks Jim Brown or Barry Sanders are anything but top 5 RBs of all timed despite their short careers and relatively weak counting stats. Even so, they aren't anywhere near the top, as availability is one of the many important abilities in basketball.

RE: Points per game, it has always been a cheap metric anyway. In 1986, Alex English was third at 28.6 ppg; Kiki Vandeweghe was 5th at 26.9; Mark Aguirre 7th at 26.1; Dale Ellis 8th at 24.9; Walter Davis 11th at 23.6; Tom Chambers 13th at 23.3; Xavier McDaniel 15th at 23.0; Ron Harper 16th, Larry Nance 17th, and Jeff Malone 18th at 22.9, 22.5, and 22.0, respectively. Larry was 4th at 28.1, Magic 10th at 23.9, Karl Malone 20th at 21.7, and Isiah 26th at 20.6.

Is anyone at risk of thinking Kiki and Alex English are better all-time players than Bird or Magic? Was Karl Malone because he posted nearly 10k more career points than either? Was 1986 a non-competitive season because Kiki and English averaged those totals? Was Jordan a Harden-like stat padder because he averaged 37.1 ppg, 8.1 more than Dominique Wilkins at #2? Was Jordan's competition weak because there was point inflation such that Kiki Vandeweghe scored 27 points per game?  If Dale Ellis had kept up that one-season pace, he, like Sexton under the same projections, would be on pace for top-50 all time.

celticsclay, the above is less about your point directly but more about how I view basketball evaluation. Lots of stat-based comparisons are tricky because the NBA is such a young league, career length has gone up tremendously in such a short period of time (as opposed to baseball where oldies could usually hang around or football where every non-QB still gets beat up enough to retire in their early 30s), and pace fluctuates wildly. Many thought Kareem's record was 1) cheap, because he simply outlasted people like Bird and Magic who were clearly better scorers than he was while benefiting from a breakneck 80s game 2) unbreakable, because who the hell would last 20 years in the NBA averaging 25+ ppg? History has been very kind to Kareem since people now people conflate LeBron-like dominance to his name. (FWIW, I have always argued that Kareem deserves GOAT mentions and have him squarely as my 3rd or 4th best player of all time.)

EDIT: Moranis makes the same point much better than I do in the post above.

[celticsclay]

I’ll also add these records are becoming increasingly meaningless. There are like 35 points more scored per game than there were 25 years ago. Kemba Walker scored over 30 in a game on a ten day contract this year. It’s just silly.

It isn't that much higher than the 70s and 80s and scoring was actually higher in the 60s. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Here is a good article on it. https://deadspin.com/nba-offense-scoring-kings-clippers-1850161307

The problem is it is just not good basketball. You are gonna have someone like Colin sexton end up as a top 100 scorer all time if he stays healthy

I didn't say I liked this modern basketball.  Can't stand all the 3pt chucking.  The question is what can they do to make it better. 

However I'm not sure why you mentioned Sexton.  He's only score 5000 pts so far and he doesn't shoot that many 3s.

Sexton was a poor example. I forgot he missed an entire season. I just knew he averaged 25 in a year he was not close to being an all star. But yeah you are gonna have someone like d fox end up with more career points than Clyde drexler or Larry bird.

I like Fox.  He was my favorite in that draft.  He did have an all-star caliber season this year. 

Career numbers are to a large degree dependent on longevity and health.  Bird is already 41st on the career scoring list and CP3, DeRozan and Curry are about to pass him.  Fox is already 25 and is only at 7500 so he's going to need 9 or 10 more healthy seasons at his current level to pass Bird.  Luka, Tatum, Young and Morant all have a good chance of passing Bird.  I'm assuming that you don't have an issue with Luka and Tatum doing so but would with Young and Morant.

TP nice post. Fox is one of favorite players I actually enjoy watching him more than morant and definitely more than young. Fox is averaging 25 or something this year and that doesn’t appear to be going down with the pace the game is played at. So he has a very good chance of passing clear hall of fame players. I think luka and Tatum are future hall of famers but don’t think young or fox are without major development. And definitely not first ballot hall of famer like bird or drexler. That was my original point about these records becoming a lot less meaningful.

Edit: also a closer look on the math here. Larry finished with close to 22k total points. If fox plays most
Of the remaining games he will have close to 2k for the season and be at 8k for his career. If he does this for about 6 more years (and he has been pretty consistent for three) he will closing in on 20k in 6 seasons. Would definitely take less than 9 or 10 if he has good health and doesn’t have a major drop off (and these should be his prime years).

Why are accumulated points totals what you're singling out as a sign of a watered-down game? If Larry and Magic had modern medicine and played 20 years, they'd be much higher up. No one thinks Jim Brown or Barry Sanders are anything but top 5 RBs of all timed despite their short careers and relatively weak counting stats. Even so, they aren't anywhere near the top, as availability is one of the many important abilities in basketball.

RE: Points per game, it has always been a cheap metric anyway. In 1986, Alex English was third at 28.6 ppg; Kiki Vandeweghe was 5th at 26.9; Mark Aguirre 7th at 26.1; Dale Ellis 8th at 24.9; Walter Davis 11th at 23.6; Tom Chambers 13th at 23.3; Xavier McDaniel 15th at 23.0; Ron Harper 16th, Larry Nance 17th, and Jeff Malone 18th at 22.9, 22.5, and 22.0, respectively. Larry was 4th at 28.1, Magic 10th at 23.9, Karl Malone 20th at 21.7, and Isiah 26th at 20.6.

Is anyone at risk of thinking Kiki and Alex English are better all-time players than Bird or Magic? Was Karl Malone because he posted nearly 10k more career points than either? Was 1986 a non-competitive season because Kiki and English averaged those totals? Was Jordan a Harden-like stat padder because he averaged 37.1 ppg, 8.1 more than Dominique Wilkins at #2? Was Jordan's competition weak because there was point inflation such that Kiki Vandeweghe scored 27 points per game?  If Dale Ellis had kept up that one-season pace, he, like Sexton under the same projections, would be on pace for top-50 all time.

celticsclay, the above is less about your point directly but more about how I view basketball evaluation. Lots of stat-based comparisons are tricky because the NBA is such a young league, career length has gone up tremendously in such a short period of time (as opposed to baseball where oldies could usually hang around or football where every non-QB still gets beat up enough to retire in their early 30s), and pace fluctuates wildly. Many thought Kareem's record was 1) cheap, because he simply outlasted people like Bird and Magic who were clearly better scorers than he was while benefiting from a breakneck 80s game 2) unbreakable, because who the hell would last 20 years in the NBA averaging 25+ ppg? History has been very kind to Kareem since people now people conflate LeBron-like dominance to his name. (FWIW, I have always argued that Kareem deserves GOAT mentions and have him squarely as my 3rd or 4th best player of all time.)

EDIT: Moranis makes the same point much better than I do in the post above.

Barry Sanders is 4th all time in rushing. Only longevity guy above him is gore. You also kind of made my point for me here by taking the time to list those scoring numbers averaging 28 and 26 really stands out against what we have this year as scoring leaders. There are 8 guys this year they would have beat the leaders from the season you point out. If this keeps up you really are gonna see weird names on the all time scoring list and a lot of the old guys washed out.

I understand that there was a time the NBA was really high scoring. But we are on a path of continually helping the offenses which has made the NBA less enjoyable for a lot of people. I’m hoping they make a few tweaks over the summer.

[tazzmaniac]

I’ll also add these records are becoming increasingly meaningless. There are like 35 points more scored per game than there were 25 years ago. Kemba Walker scored over 30 in a game on a ten day contract this year. It’s just silly.

It isn't that much higher than the 70s and 80s and scoring was actually higher in the 60s. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Here is a good article on it. https://deadspin.com/nba-offense-scoring-kings-clippers-1850161307

The problem is it is just not good basketball. You are gonna have someone like Colin sexton end up as a top 100 scorer all time if he stays healthy

I didn't say I liked this modern basketball.  Can't stand all the 3pt chucking.  The question is what can they do to make it better. 

However I'm not sure why you mentioned Sexton.  He's only score 5000 pts so far and he doesn't shoot that many 3s.

Sexton was a poor example. I forgot he missed an entire season. I just knew he averaged 25 in a year he was not close to being an all star. But yeah you are gonna have someone like d fox end up with more career points than Clyde drexler or Larry bird.

I like Fox.  He was my favorite in that draft.  He did have an all-star caliber season this year. 

Career numbers are to a large degree dependent on longevity and health.  Bird is already 41st on the career scoring list and CP3, DeRozan and Curry are about to pass him.  Fox is already 25 and is only at 7500 so he's going to need 9 or 10 more healthy seasons at his current level to pass Bird.  Luka, Tatum, Young and Morant all have a good chance of passing Bird.  I'm assuming that you don't have an issue with Luka and Tatum doing so but would with Young and Morant.

TP nice post. Fox is one of favorite players I actually enjoy watching him more than morant and definitely more than young. Fox is averaging 25 or something this year and that doesn’t appear to be going down with the pace the game is played at. So he has a very good chance of passing clear hall of fame players. I think luka and Tatum are future hall of famers but don’t think young or fox are without major development. And definitely not first ballot hall of famer like bird or drexler. That was my original point about these records becoming a lot less meaningful.

Edit: also a closer look on the math here. Larry finished with close to 22k total points. If fox plays most
Of the remaining games he will have close to 2k for the season and be at 8k for his career. If he does this for about 6 more years (and he has been pretty consistent for three) he will closing in on 20k in 6 seasons. Would definitely take less than 9 or 10 if he has good health and doesn’t have a major drop off (and these should be his prime years).

Basketball-reference shows Fox with 1397 points so far this season.  He's missing tonight's game and ESPN shows him as out.  So he'll probably end up a couple hundred points short of 2k.  His previous 3 seasons he played less than 60 games each and each were less than 1500 points.  It doesn't seem realistic that he could put together 6 seasons of 2k when he hasn't even done 2k in one season yet.  Being a small guard doesn't bode well for his longevity. 

[Moranis]

Games played is a huge factor in totals.  Only 4 guys since Jordan in 93 have scored at least 2500 points in a season: Harden in 19, Westbrook in 17, Durant in 14, and Kobe in 06. 

Jordan did it 6 times from 87 to 93 (one of those was over 3000), K. Malone did it 90, Gervin and Moses did it 82, Gervin in 80, McAdoo in 75, Kareem in 71, and in the 60's it wasn't just Wilt (7 straight years), Barry did it, and Baylor did it twice. 

Even 2300 points is rare these days.  I mean since 2010, only the 4 above plus, Durant in 10, Harden and Curry in 16, Harden in 17, and Harden in 20 have even hit 2300 points.  9 of the 10 seasons in the 80's the leader had at least 2300 points and most of the seasons there were at least 2 guys with at least 2300. 

So even if the ppg upticks some, unless guys start playing 80+ games again, it isn't going to matter for the all time records.  That is what makes what Lebron, Kareem, and the Mailman have done so special.  Those guys played 20 years, did so at a high level, and did so without missing a ton of games (and basically none in the case of Kareem and the Mailman).  I mean Kobe and Duncan played for 20 years and Kobe didn't even get to within 3300 points of Malone and Duncan is way back in 19th behind Gervin, Dominique and now Durant.

I just don't see that sort of career replicating all that frequently.  Sure there will be another guy like that that comes along and has a really high-level career for 20 years, maybe even a guy that consistently plays 75 games a year, but he'd have to average an insane amount of points for most of that time to come anywhere near the all-time records.  Plus, with the amount of money these guys are making, the motivation just isn't going to be there for the vast majority of the players that just think of this as a job and not a passion.  They are going to get a big pay day or two, and just not put in the effort.  They won't fight to get back and will just take games off because that is the new trend.  Again, it might just be a phase, but it seems like it might be here to stay until the pocketbook starts getting affected.

[celticsclay]

I’ll also add these records are becoming increasingly meaningless. There are like 35 points more scored per game than there were 25 years ago. Kemba Walker scored over 30 in a game on a ten day contract this year. It’s just silly.

It isn't that much higher than the 70s and 80s and scoring was actually higher in the 60s. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Here is a good article on it. https://deadspin.com/nba-offense-scoring-kings-clippers-1850161307

The problem is it is just not good basketball. You are gonna have someone like Colin sexton end up as a top 100 scorer all time if he stays healthy

I didn't say I liked this modern basketball.  Can't stand all the 3pt chucking.  The question is what can they do to make it better. 

However I'm not sure why you mentioned Sexton.  He's only score 5000 pts so far and he doesn't shoot that many 3s.

Sexton was a poor example. I forgot he missed an entire season. I just knew he averaged 25 in a year he was not close to being an all star. But yeah you are gonna have someone like d fox end up with more career points than Clyde drexler or Larry bird.

I like Fox.  He was my favorite in that draft.  He did have an all-star caliber season this year. 

Career numbers are to a large degree dependent on longevity and health.  Bird is already 41st on the career scoring list and CP3, DeRozan and Curry are about to pass him.  Fox is already 25 and is only at 7500 so he's going to need 9 or 10 more healthy seasons at his current level to pass Bird.  Luka, Tatum, Young and Morant all have a good chance of passing Bird.  I'm assuming that you don't have an issue with Luka and Tatum doing so but would with Young and Morant.

TP nice post. Fox is one of favorite players I actually enjoy watching him more than morant and definitely more than young. Fox is averaging 25 or something this year and that doesn’t appear to be going down with the pace the game is played at. So he has a very good chance of passing clear hall of fame players. I think luka and Tatum are future hall of famers but don’t think young or fox are without major development. And definitely not first ballot hall of famer like bird or drexler. That was my original point about these records becoming a lot less meaningful.

Edit: also a closer look on the math here. Larry finished with close to 22k total points. If fox plays most
Of the remaining games he will have close to 2k for the season and be at 8k for his career. If he does this for about 6 more years (and he has been pretty consistent for three) he will closing in on 20k in 6 seasons. Would definitely take less than 9 or 10 if he has good health and doesn’t have a major drop off (and these should be his prime years).

Basketball-reference shows Fox with 1397 points so far this season.  He's missing tonight's game and ESPN shows him as out.  So he'll probably end up a couple hundred points short of 2k.  His previous 3 seasons he played less than 60 games each and each were less than 1500 points.  It doesn't seem realistic that he could put together 6 seasons of 2k when he hasn't even done 2k in one season yet.  Being a small guard doesn't bode well for his longevity.

Tazz least fun part of this is we won’t know who is right for 5 years. Would be fun if we are both still here. Tp for the discussion.

[tazzmaniac]

Games played is a huge factor in totals.  Only 4 guys since Jordan in 93 have scored at least 2500 points in a season: Harden in 19, Westbrook in 17, Durant in 14, and Kobe in 06. 

Jordan did it 6 times from 87 to 93 (one of those was over 3000), K. Malone did it 90, Gervin and Moses did it 82, Gervin in 80, McAdoo in 75, Kareem in 71, and in the 60's it wasn't just Wilt (7 straight years), Barry did it, and Baylor did it twice. 

Even 2300 points is rare these days.  I mean since 2010, only the 4 above plus, Durant in 10, Harden and Curry in 16, Harden in 17, and Harden in 20 have even hit 2300 points.  9 of the 10 seasons in the 80's the leader had at least 2300 points and most of the seasons there were at least 2 guys with at least 2300. 

So even if the ppg upticks some, unless guys start playing 80+ games again, it isn't going to matter for the all time records.  That is what makes what Lebron, Kareem, and the Mailman have done so special.  Those guys played 20 years, did so at a high level, and did so without missing a ton of games (and basically none in the case of Kareem and the Mailman).  I mean Kobe and Duncan played for 20 years and Kobe didn't even get to within 3300 points of Malone and Duncan is way back in 19th behind Gervin, Dominique and now Durant.

I just don't see that sort of career replicating all that frequently.  Sure there will be another guy like that that comes along and has a really high-level career for 20 years, maybe even a guy that consistently plays 75 games a year, but he'd have to average an insane amount of points for most of that time to come anywhere near the all-time records.  Plus, with the amount of money these guys are making, the motivation just isn't going to be there for the vast majority of the players that just think of this as a job and not a passion.  They are going to get a big pay day or two, and just not put in the effort.  They won't fight to get back and will just take games off because that is the new trend.  Again, it might just be a phase, but it seems like it might be here to stay until the pocketbook starts getting affected.

Games played is the biggie especially with this being a load management era.  Another factor is minutes played per game.  In the 60s/70s, top players were playing over 40 minutes a game.  For his career, Wilt averaged 45.8 minutes per game.   

[tazzmaniac]

I’ll also add these records are becoming increasingly meaningless. There are like 35 points more scored per game than there were 25 years ago. Kemba Walker scored over 30 in a game on a ten day contract this year. It’s just silly.

It isn't that much higher than the 70s and 80s and scoring was actually higher in the 60s. 

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html

Here is a good article on it. https://deadspin.com/nba-offense-scoring-kings-clippers-1850161307

The problem is it is just not good basketball. You are gonna have someone like Colin sexton end up as a top 100 scorer all time if he stays healthy

I didn't say I liked this modern basketball.  Can't stand all the 3pt chucking.  The question is what can they do to make it better. 

However I'm not sure why you mentioned Sexton.  He's only score 5000 pts so far and he doesn't shoot that many 3s.

Sexton was a poor example. I forgot he missed an entire season. I just knew he averaged 25 in a year he was not close to being an all star. But yeah you are gonna have someone like d fox end up with more career points than Clyde drexler or Larry bird.

I like Fox.  He was my favorite in that draft.  He did have an all-star caliber season this year. 

Career numbers are to a large degree dependent on longevity and health.  Bird is already 41st on the career scoring list and CP3, DeRozan and Curry are about to pass him.  Fox is already 25 and is only at 7500 so he's going to need 9 or 10 more healthy seasons at his current level to pass Bird.  Luka, Tatum, Young and Morant all have a good chance of passing Bird.  I'm assuming that you don't have an issue with Luka and Tatum doing so but would with Young and Morant.

TP nice post. Fox is one of favorite players I actually enjoy watching him more than morant and definitely more than young. Fox is averaging 25 or something this year and that doesn’t appear to be going down with the pace the game is played at. So he has a very good chance of passing clear hall of fame players. I think luka and Tatum are future hall of famers but don’t think young or fox are without major development. And definitely not first ballot hall of famer like bird or drexler. That was my original point about these records becoming a lot less meaningful.

Edit: also a closer look on the math here. Larry finished with close to 22k total points. If fox plays most
Of the remaining games he will have close to 2k for the season and be at 8k for his career. If he does this for about 6 more years (and he has been pretty consistent for three) he will closing in on 20k in 6 seasons. Would definitely take less than 9 or 10 if he has good health and doesn’t have a major drop off (and these should be his prime years).

Basketball-reference shows Fox with 1397 points so far this season.  He's missing tonight's game and ESPN shows him as out.  So he'll probably end up a couple hundred points short of 2k.  His previous 3 seasons he played less than 60 games each and each were less than 1500 points.  It doesn't seem realistic that he could put together 6 seasons of 2k when he hasn't even done 2k in one season yet.  Being a small guard doesn't bode well for his longevity.

Tazz least fun part of this is we won’t know who is right for 5 years. Would be fun if we are both still here. Tp for the discussion.

TP back at you.  It will be interesting to see in 5 years if the offensive uptick has leveled off.  I'd like to see them give some advantage to the defense but I don't see it happening.