What does the trade deadline / buyout approach tell us about Brad's budget?

[Roy H.]

One of the things that I've found interesting this season is the gap between Wyc's "all in / no budget constraints" language through the media, versus results.  To date, we let a $17.2 million TPE expire, had another $6.9 million TPE expire, and used $3.5 million of a $5.9 million TPE while sending out salary in return.  To date, there have been no reports of us offering the $3.24 DPE to any bought out free agent, although that is significantly more than buyouts are signing for elsewhere.

Interestingly, our payroll right now is actually lower than it was at the beginning of the season, assuming that all 15 roster spots were filled through season's end.  Vonleh's and Jackson's annual salaries combined were $3,672,180.  Muscula makes $3.5 million.  If we don't fill the 15th roster spot, or wait until the last few weeks of the season to fill it, we'll actually have cut budget during the season.  Even if we sign somebody to the pro-rated vet minimum, it's going to only add $350k or so to the projected payroll.

My hypotheses, then, is that Brad is very close to the max budget he was given, and that Wyc has been less than truthful in his public statements.

Does anybody accept the company line that there was no budget, and Brad had fully authority to add whoever he wanted?

[Goldstar88]

One of the things that I've found interesting this season is the gap between Wyc's "all in / no budget constraints" language through the media, versus results.  To date, we let a $17.2 million TPE expire, had another $6.9 million TPE expire, and used $3.5 million of a $5.9 million TPE while sending out salary in return.  To date, there have been no reports of us offering the $3.24 DPE to any bought out free agent, although that is significantly more than buyouts are signing for elsewhere.

Interestingly, our payroll right now is actually lower than it was at the beginning of the season, assuming that all 15 roster spots were filled through season's end.  Vonleh's and Jackson's annual salaries combined were $3,672,180.  Muscula makes $3.5 million.  If we don't fill the 15th roster spot, or wait until the last few weeks of the season to fill it, we'll actually have cut budget during the season.

My hypotheses, then, is that Brad is very close to the max budget he was given, and that Wyc has been less than truthful in his public statements.

Does anybody accept the company line that there was no budget, and Brad had fully authority to add whoever he wanted?

Absolutely not.

[Celtics2021]

One of the things that I've found interesting this season is the gap between Wyc's "all in / no budget constraints" language through the media, versus results.  To date, we let a $17.2 million TPE expire, had another $6.9 million TPE expire, and used $3.5 million of a $5.9 million TPE while sending out salary in return.  To date, there have been no reports of us offering the $3.24 DPE to any bought out free agent, although that is significantly more than buyouts are signing for elsewhere.

Interestingly, our payroll right now is actually lower than it was at the beginning of the season, assuming that all 15 roster spots were filled through season's end.  Vonleh's and Jackson's annual salaries combined were $3,672,180.  Muscula makes $3.5 million.  If we don't fill the 15th roster spot, or wait until the last few weeks of the season to fill it, we'll actually have cut budget during the season.

My hypotheses, then, is that Brad is very close to the max budget he was given, and that Wyc has been less than truthful in his public statements.

Does anybody accept the company line that there was no budget, and Brad had fully authority to add whoever he wanted?

I don’t accept the company line, but at the same time I wouldn’t convict beyond reasonable doubt.  It’s not like there were a number of other players we could have acquired.  We could have sent 3 seconds to Washington instead for Hachimura and the Juancho TPE, but then we wouldn’t have had the seconds to deal for Muscala, and Muscala seems like at least as good of a fit as Rui.  We reportedly tried to trade for Poeltl, but didn’t want to give up as much as Toronto did, which makes sense given the role we had available.  We’d never been mentioned as in it for Crowder, which wasn’t terribly surprising (and we didn’t have 5 seconds to get the deal done).  Nor did we have 5 seconds for Bey.  Maybe we could have acquired Vanderbilt instead if Muscala if you wanted to spend a couple million more, but maybe not for the same price in picks.  I’d have liked PJ Washington (who would have used up almost all the Schröder TPE) but he wasn’t moved, so we don’t know what the asking price there was.

Our draft assets were limited, and acquiring players typically costs them.  It makes sense that with an already deep roster the Celtics would not spend them all to improve on the 13th-15th spots.  It’s wiser to save them for future years when we want to fill in spots higher in the rotation, or make a deal for a major talent.

[Vermont Green]

One of the things that I've found interesting this season is the gap between Wyc's "all in / no budget constraints" language through the media, versus results.  To date, we let a $17.2 million TPE expire, had another $6.9 million TPE expire, and used $3.5 million of a $5.9 million TPE while sending out salary in return.  To date, there have been no reports of us offering the $3.24 DPE to any bought out free agent, although that is significantly more than buyouts are signing for elsewhere.

Interestingly, our payroll right now is actually lower than it was at the beginning of the season, assuming that all 15 roster spots were filled through season's end.  Vonleh's and Jackson's annual salaries combined were $3,672,180.  Muscula makes $3.5 million.  If we don't fill the 15th roster spot, or wait until the last few weeks of the season to fill it, we'll actually have cut budget during the season.  Even if we sign somebody to the pro-rated vet minimum, it's going to only add $350k or so to the projected payroll.

My hypotheses, then, is that Brad is very close to the max budget he was given, and that Wyc has been less than truthful in his public statements.

Does anybody accept the company line that there was no budget, and Brad had fully authority to add whoever he wanted?

I take them at their word.  To say "no budget" does not mean go out a spend money on a bad deal.  There is no reason to think that there was a deal that Brad wanted to do but that ownership said no because of money.  There were plenty of chances to spend money on bad deals along the way but that is different.  It would have to be a deal that Brad Stevens wanted and felt would help the team but ownership said, sorry, that would put us over "budget".  I of course don't know, but I doubt that happened.

[bdm860]

Does anybody accept the company line that there was no budget, and Brad had fully authority to add whoever he wanted?

I think it has to be looked at from a business/politics perspective, where reality is going to be much more complex than any public statement.

No budget doesn't mean no consequences.

Wyc and Co. are probably willing to spend like the Warriors for a Warriors-like dynasty, so Stevens has an open checkbook in that regards to make it happen.

But once you spend and don't get the desired results, it will also be Stevens job to fix it by cutting salary, while still keeping the team in the playoffs every year, which is much harder to do.

Just throwing out numbers, maybe ownership is okay spending:

$150m-$175m for a playoff team

$175-$220m for a legit contender

$220-$250m for a championship

$250m-$500m for a dynasty

So Stevens uses the $17m TPE and the $3.5m DPE in addition to the other moves already made, and payroll+luxury tax is now over $250m (wild guess, no math done by me).  And the C's lose in round 2 or the ECF (very possible).  Ownership is like, "we were willing to spend for a championship, you didn't win a championship, so cut salary, but stay good, and don't mortgage the future either."  So now Stevens has to cut $30m-$40m from salaries+luxury tax, and he might have to attach draft picks to make it happen, which all makes his job harder going forward.


No budget also doesn't mean spend beyond what is necessary.  If the C's win a championship this year at ~$215m in salary+tax, then it was probably a great decision not to spend >$250m to get the same result. 


The actual statement is probably more like "spend as much as necessary to win a championship, but don't spend more than that.  But if spending more can get us an all-time great dynasty, then spend what is necessary, but don't spend more than that.  And if you spend and underperform, it will be your job to fix it while keeping the team in a good position, and if you can't do that then we'll find someone else who can."

It's a balancing act.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Roy, what additions would you want on this team that would move the needle?

[Phantom255x]

Is this really that big of an issue? Like look of course I'd love Barton or Johnson too, but if we don't get either I'm not going to lose sleep about it nor assume ownership is cheap. Even those guys at best are the 10th guys on our roster. I'd probably agree more so if they made zero deadline moves (but they did add Muscala).

[liam]

Stanley Johnson against the Bucks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTwbeptABwY

Aginst Kawhi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M408h-VNKs

The more I look at Johnson the more he seems like a perfect fit.

[wdleehi]

Of course there was always a budget.   But I don't think that is why they traded out Jackson (and Vonleh).   I still believe they decided that those two players were not helping the team in the regular season enough and want to the space to add someone who would without having to waive a player.   



And honestly, I don't understand the complaining about owners not spending money when the team is already so deep in the tax when we are talking about the 15th/14th man.   

[nebist]

Wyc definitely likes to gas up the fanbase with some excess hyperbole at times. However, I don't think he is straight lying about the budget. I think they would have taken on $ if they felt it was a championship odds altering move. For instance, let's say Brad went to them and said, "I've got a deal for OG Anunoby where we send out Grant, Pritchard, Gallo, and Justin Jackson and 2 unprotected 1sts for him. Then, I can use the TPE to bring in Muscala. Both moves together will add about $8 million this year (multiply by whatever the tax hits will be), but I think Anunoby is the piece we need to get over the hump." I think in that kind of impact-move scenario, Wyc probably allows Brad to make the call and add the $, but I don't think Wyc would have been on board with adding $5-$20 mil in increased tax payments for guys that wouldn't necessarily even make our playoff rotation.

[Roy H.]

And honestly, I don't understand the complaining about owners not spending money when the team is already so deep in the tax when we are talking about the 15th/14th man.

It's more about the approach to the season itself.  Brad should be evaluated differently if his marching orders were "build the best team you can with a $175 million budget", opposed to "build the best team you can with no spending limits".

It's not necessarily about who the 14th or 15th man is, although it will always be a fair question to ask if ownership did everything in its power to succeed.  We passed on using two sizeable TPEs, and used a portion of another.  Were there players Brad would have pursued if he had more money to work with, or not?

[Roy H.]

Roy, what additions would you want on this team that would move the needle?

Alec Burks and the additional picks we would have gotten with him would have been nice.  Outside of that, I don't know what was available.

Offering the DPE to any of the recently bought out players would have been beneficial.  If offering $3m vs. $550k is the difference between getting the guy you want or not, I'd pay the extra money.

And, that's not even getting into the issue of having expendable salary could help us make trades next season.

But mostly, I just don't like Wyc acting like a pompous, lying salesman.

[Celtics2021]

And honestly, I don't understand the complaining about owners not spending money when the team is already so deep in the tax when we are talking about the 15th/14th man.

It's more about the approach to the season itself.  Brad should be evaluated differently if his marching orders were "build the best team you can with a $175 million budget", opposed to "build the best team you can with no spending limits".

It's not necessarily about who the 14th or 15th man is, although it will always be a fair question to ask if ownership did everything in its power to succeed.  We passed on using two sizeable TPEs, and used a portion of another.  Were there players Brad would have pursued if he had more money to work with, or not?

Let's ignore the summer TPE for now, because that's long past (my feeling is they were negotiating with Atlanta on Huerter and either switched to Brogdon when Atlanta went with SAC, or went to Brogdon once Indiana came down in its demands causing ATL to go with SAC -- those two deals were announced within hours of each other, and Boston had been sometimes linked to Huerter.  Notably those negotiations occurred after Alec Burks was traded).  Instead, here are the players that were traded at the deadline who fit the Schroder TPE and made more than Muscala:

Cam Reddish -- sent to POR as part of the Josh Hart trade
Cam Johnson -- to Brooklyn in Durant deal
Nickeil Alexander-Walker -- to MIN in Conley-Russell-Westbrook deal
Matisse Thybulle -- to POR for essentially two 2nds
Jarred Vanderbilt -- to Lakers in Conley-Russell-Westbrook deal
Darius Bazley -- to PHO as part of salary offset in Saric salary dump
George Hill -- to IND with a pick as part of MIL creating matching salary for Crowder

Reddish we shouldn't have wanted. 
Johnson would have been wonderful, but the cost would likely have been high from Brooklyn post-trade. 
NAW was probably obtainable for a 2nd.
Thybulle we could have met the price for -- he'd have required better seconds than we traded for Muscala, but we can reasonably assume he was obtainable if we'd tried.
It's unclear how available Vanderbilt was to us, because Ainge was laser-focused on getting that 1st from LA.
Bazley was obviously available, we'll say for the less valuable of the seconds we traded to OKC.
Hill we could have acquired with a second.

With that list, do you really think it was dollars, as opposed to draft compensation or basketball reasons, that we missed out on any of these?  Would you have rather had Thybulle for both of our seconds this year?  Is it an obvious enough call that you think the only reason the Celtics nixed it is because that would've cost $3 million more in luxury tax dollars?  There are some other guys who weren't traded who we might have liked, but we don't know how much they cost.  PJ Washington almost certainly cost a 1st, as the Hornets got a very early 2nd for McDaniels, and unlike McDaniels, Washington is an RFA next year rather than a UFA.

Looking at the list of players who also fit the Juancho exception, we have:

Khem Birch -- dumped as part of Poeltl trade.
Justin Holiday -- dumped to Houston to avoid tax
Rui Hachimura -- traded to Lakers for 3 2nd round picks.

I suppose you could make a case that Hachimura would be better to have than Muscala, but at the cost of an extra pick it's at best debatable.  Alternatively we could have had either Birch or Holiday for "free".  Is not getting either due to penny-pinching, or simply not burning $30 million on a slightly better 13th or 14th man?

I just don't see a move out there that we know the Celtics could have made that was inherently better than the one they did, and so I'm not convinced Brad had his hands tied by dollars.  I do think he had his hands a little tied by a decreasing amount of draft capital, but he did a good job getting NBA value for those picks in trades.  There's decreasing returns at the highest level of payroll, as the Clippers and Warriors have shown us this season -- you can only have so many players in the regular rotation.

[BitterJim]

Roy, what additions would you want on this team that would move the needle?

Alec Burks and the additional picks we would have gotten with him would have been nice.  Outside of that, I don't know what was available.

Offering the DPE to any of the recently bought out players would have been beneficial.  If offering $3m vs. $550k is the difference between getting the guy you want or not, I'd pay the extra money.

And, that's not even getting into the issue of having expendable salary could help us make trades next season.

But mostly, I just don't like Wyc acting like a pompous, lying salesman.

What's to say we didn't? Some players value fit/PT more than the money they get this year, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

This is why I don't get excited about TPEs or DPEs, which I think are more likely to not get used.